View Full Version : Ouch! Adjusted line yards

12-15-2006, 06:04 PM

Revised as of 12/05/2006

Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:

* Losses: 120% value
* 0-4 Yards: 100% value
* 5-10 Yards: 50% value
* 11+ Yards: 0% value

These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, and opponent, and normalized so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry (in 2005, 4.08). These stats are explained further here.

The following stats are not adjusted for opponent:

* RB Yards: Yards per carry by that team's running backs, according to standard NFL numbers.
* 10+ Yards: Percentage of a team's rushing yards more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Represents yardage not reflected in Adjusted Line Yards stat.
* Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.
* Stuffed: Percentage of runs that result in (on first down) zero or negative gain or (on second through fourth down) less than one-fourth the yards needed for another first down. Since being stuffed is bad, teams are ranked from stuffed least often (#1) to most often (#32).

NFL averages for each stat given in red.

we are 30th(not that big of a suprise)

The second table lists each team's Adjusted Line Yards in each direction listed in official NFL play-by-play, along with rank among the 32 teams. Only five directions are listed because research so far shows no statistically significant difference between how well a team performs on runs listed middle, left guard, and right guard. It's early in the season, so take these numbers with a grain of salt.

The third table lists how often each team runs in each direction. Numbers may not add up to 100% due to carries listed without direction.

7 percent left end
11 percent on left tackle
60 percent in the mid guard
15 percent right tackle
6 percent right end

I wonder how much of that would have changed (third table) if we had a healthy Spencer on the left side.

12-15-2006, 09:29 PM
This is why no matter who, be it Carr or someone else will fail in the backfield of this pathetic O-line. If McNair LOVES DC so much you figure he would have stressed fixing the line with legit free agents and in the draft. He let Casserly screw things up for us way to long. As a new NFL owner, I can forgive him and trust that Kubiak and GM Smith are moving us in the right direction.

12-15-2006, 10:22 PM
I wonder how much of that would have changed (third table) if we had a healthy Spencer on the left side.

This link discusses that information for the Texans' first four years. Among other things it shows what it was when we had Wand on the left side (and the same left guard in Pitts) in 2004. I wonder how much it would have changed with Wand on the left side this year.


Note - this post was from Feb. 8, 2006.

Pretty sad job of talent evaluation and player development by the Texans.


I added this year's number to the numbers that were in the old post.

Adjusted Line Yards by Run Direction


12-16-2006, 06:42 AM
To be honest, I didn't need a statistical breakdown to tell me the OL was bad; however, it does shine a light on particular spots.