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View Full Version : Colt McCoy's wacky numbers


Dr. Toro
10-29-2006, 09:00 AM
I still don't know what to make of this dude. Compare his numbers to VY, Troy Smith, and Brady Quinn

McCoy:147-217 (66.7%), 1705 yds, 7.86 YPA, 24 TD, 4 INT
Young: 212-325 (65.2%), 3036 yds, 9.34 YPA, 26 TD, 10 INT
Smith: 145-214 (66.7%), 1898 yds, 8.87 YPA, 22 TD, 2 INT
Quinn: 193-303 (63.7%), 2233 yds, 7.37 YPA, 21 TD, 4 INT

McCoy hasn't thrown for much yardage at all and he's got tons of TDs. The numbers actually look pretty similar to Troy Smith. McCoy ain't a kid, he's 20, a coaches son, and probably pretty maxed out in terms of ability (certainly not execution)... but how come he's not getting any Heisman pub?

Get this, against Baylor, Rice, SHSU, and UNT he threw 13 TDs and 1 INT on only 74 attempts and 775 yards. I guess that's why he's not getting a ton of pub. I'll say this, he makes few mistakes and he's nothing if not efficient. That's a TD every 5.7 attempts in those games.

gwallaia
10-29-2006, 09:36 AM
Kevin Kolb: 199-293 (67.9%), 2,608 yds., 13.10 YPA, 22TD, 3 INT.

All three of his interceptions were tipped balls by his receivers.

Go Coogs!

Wolf
10-29-2006, 09:54 AM
he is 2 TD's shy of the UT record

thunderkyss
10-29-2006, 12:44 PM
Yesterday, he had a great game..... if he played like that all year, & was expected to, they'd probably be talking Heisman for him as well.

But being a RS freshman, and following VY, no one expected him to do what he has.

He started out kind of slow early on, but he is definitely the leader of this team, and if he continues to play like this for the remainder of the year, they'll be talking Heisman for him next year.

Dr. Toro
10-29-2006, 12:59 PM
I don't think he'll be a 4 year starter unless they change the offense. He's not enough of a threat on the zone read, thus the running game has struggled when it should be dominant. That stuff only worked with VY. They need to go back to multiback sets and mix in that shotgun stuff. So I wouldn't be surprised if they continue to lose to top teams because of their inability to run it... opening the door for a more athletic QB akin to VY or Troy Smith. McCoy's good but if they played OSU tomorrow they'd get beat just as badly, IMO. They gotta get a better ground game going with that line and those backs. Something's gotta change eventually if they wanna win the big games, IMO. Either the QB or the offense. QB seems fine, but it's happened before in Austin.

Haams
10-30-2006, 09:53 AM
Now Doc,

I've been willing to buy the UT can't win in the big game argument before, but that's been put out to pasture. I thought Oklohoma wouldn't be a threat this year, but they are still looking good without Bomar or Peterson. That was a big game. Nebraska at home (in the snow) was a big game. Tech at home against a banged up passing defense was a big game. The only game we've lost was against a great (undefeated) Ohio State team. That was Colt's second time to step on the field.

I've got two points: #1 - you don't judge a QB's performance by his ability to run the zone read. That was Vince's play, and he was an exceptional talent that doesn't really come through college football but once a millenium. Sure, if Vince came along he might take Colt's spot, but you're not gonna see just any athletic QB steal it. Plus, Colt is athletic - he's made quite a few plays with his feet, he's just not a scrambler.

#2 - We here in Austin have gotten spoiled. I've noticed this year it's not about winning a game, it's about how well we won a game. I've noticed every week people sitting around nitpicking...did we rush for enough yards? Did we win by enough points? Did we sack the QB enough times?...The fans are losing focus that it's about winning. We're on a good streak. We struggle less than other top teams. It's time to relax and enjoy the show.

The simple fact of the matter is that Colt McCoy is about to re-write the UT record book. This weekend he should take the single season TD record. That says a lot. Compare it to recent history - he's going to shatter a mark shared by VY and Chris Simms (who was throwing to the most talented recieving corps in UT history.)

bah007
10-30-2006, 09:55 AM
McCoy is going to break the UT record for passing TDs in a season as a freshman.

That is darn good enough for me.

Haams
10-30-2006, 10:11 AM
...thus the running game has struggled when it should be dominant...So I wouldn't be surprised if they continue to lose to top teams because of their inability to run it...

An example of nitpicking and not enjoying what's happening.

RUSH YARDS
TEXAS - 13th
OHIO STATE - 15th
MICHIGAN - 16th
FLORIDA - 47th
USC - 70th

RUSH YARDS PER GAME
TEXAS - 20th
OHIO STATE - 22nd
MICHIGAN - 25th
FLORIDA - 39th
USC - 45th

If our running game is not "dominant" enough then it looks like the rest of the top teams will really struggle. Navy takes it all!

profan
10-30-2006, 10:59 AM
no heismann pub, because his worst game was against the number 1 team on national tv.

Errant Hothy
10-30-2006, 11:05 AM
He's not getting Heisman pub becasue he is a freshman, and freshman never get Heisman consideration...it's a fact of life.

Kaiser Toro
10-30-2006, 11:08 AM
He's not getting Heisman pub becasue he is a freshman, and freshman never get Heisman consideration...it's a fact of life.


Mitch Albom will be writing a book on this fact of life in his next novel, "Sunday Mornings with the Eastern Media." :)

kastofsna
10-30-2006, 11:51 AM
colt mccoy isn't getting heisman consideration because freshman quarterbacks get heisman pub like once a century.

YoungTexanFan
10-30-2006, 11:59 AM
He's not getting Heisman pub becasue he is a freshman, and freshman never get Heisman consideration...it's a fact of life.

Signed,
Adrian Peterson

kastofsna
10-30-2006, 12:09 PM
Signed,
Adrian Peterson
peterson actually showed up and played well for the biggest game of his freshman regular season, though.

Huge
10-30-2006, 12:55 PM
You answered your own question. I'd guess that the college sports media figures that the rest of the guys you named would probably have similar if not better numbers against that level of competition.
North Texas
Ohio State
Rice
Iowa State
Sam Houston State
Oklahoma
Baylor
Nebraska
Texas Tech

Georgia Tech
Penn State
Michigan
Michigan State
Purdue
Stanford
UCLA
Navy

Yeah, McCoy's had it much easier than Brady Quinn. :rolleyes:
I don't think he'll be a 4 year starter unless they change the offense. He's not enough of a threat on the zone read, thus the running game has struggled when it should be dominant. That stuff only worked with VY. They need to go back to multiback sets and mix in that shotgun stuff. So I wouldn't be surprised if they continue to lose to top teams because of their inability to run it... opening the door for a more athletic QB akin to VY or Troy Smith. McCoy's good but if they played OSU tomorrow they'd get beat just as badly, IMO. They gotta get a better ground game going with that line and those backs. Something's gotta change eventually if they wanna win the big games, IMO. Either the QB or the offense. QB seems fine, but it's happened before in Austin.
The running game hasn't appeard dominant because teams have been making McCoy beat them. And to his credit, he has.

Now when teams start showing the respect for the passing offense, then the rushing offense will pick up.

kastofsna
10-30-2006, 01:59 PM
the zone-read is pretty funny with mccoy.

Dr. Toro
10-31-2006, 12:14 AM
That's all I'm saying... got nothing against the kid... but if they keep running that against good defenses they won't have success. And I really don't think any half sane defensive coordinator would be daring McCoy to throw to Finley, Sweed, Cosby, Shipley, and Pittman. I just think the running attack isn't what it should be and won't be as long as they run the zone-read and operate out of the shotty all the time. So, if anybody thinks I'm faulting McCoy, I'm not... just stating facts... the zone read doesn't work if you don't respect the QB's ability to run. McCoy is far from a stiff, but he's not near the threat you need to be to have success running that play. Bring back the I, pro-sets, and counter tre.

bah007
10-31-2006, 12:16 PM
That's all I'm saying... got nothing against the kid... but if they keep running that against good defenses they won't have success. And I really don't think any half sane defensive coordinator would be daring McCoy to throw to Finley, Sweed, Cosby, Shipley, and Pittman. I just think the running attack isn't what it should be and won't be as long as they run the zone-read and operate out of the shotty all the time. So, if anybody thinks I'm faulting McCoy, I'm not... just stating facts... the zone read doesn't work if you don't respect the QB's ability to run. McCoy is far from a stiff, but he's not near the threat you need to be to have success running that play. Bring back the I, pro-sets, and counter tre.

But the opposing teams do respect McCoy's ability to run.

They are not scared of it, but they respect it. That is all you need from the defense to run that play. If they think that he might keep it, then they will have to key on him.

Mr. White
10-31-2006, 02:13 PM
I think that this kid is the real deal. By the time it's over for him here, I think that he'll be held in a higher regard around Austin than #10 himself. :twocents:

Dr. Toro
10-31-2006, 04:34 PM
But the opposing teams do respect McCoy's ability to run.

They are not scared of it, but they respect it. That is all you need from the defense to run that play. If they think that he might keep it, then they will have to key on him.

Do you really think that's more effective than lining up in the I with the best offensive line in the country and opening up huge holes to let your Olympic caliber sprinter run north-south. I'm just saying, the running game is sub-optimal and it shows up against top competition (OSU). Running from the shotgun isn't a great option unless you have a burner at QB, for some pretty obvious reasons. McCoy ain't a big kid, just protect him in the pocket and let your horses earn the yards on the ground.

I imagine they stuck with the same offense to keep a comfort level for McCoy and the rest of the unit after losing VY. I don't think they should be married to the shotgun/zone read and if they are, Texas won't win against great D's with McCoy at QB.

Huge
10-31-2006, 08:54 PM
How many defenses in the country are better than Oklahoma's?

Dr. Toro
10-31-2006, 09:58 PM
How many defenses in the country are better than Oklahoma's?

This year Oklahoma has the 27th best rushing defense (110 ypg) and the 19th best total defense.

2005 vs. OU 444 yards (206 rushing)
2006 vs. OU 244 yards (136 rushing)

2005 team averaged 276 yards per game rushing (6 ypc)
2006 team averages 185 yards per game rushing (4.8 ypc)

Losing Taylor and VY hurts any rushing offense, but the Horns should have been able to compensate given their more experienced line and backfield. Charles numbers are down from last year (7.4 ypc to 5.9 ypc), even though he's older and healthier. I think it's pretty clear that this team should do a better job of running the ball, and McCoy with his 3 ypc average really doesn't scare anybody in the one read. Let McCoy pass and let the runners run.

Huge
10-31-2006, 11:06 PM
Yes I believe McCoy has had it easier. I agree some of Quinn's opponents are weak but I think McCoy's schedule is easier.
I'd say Ohio State is on par with Michigan.
I'd say Oklahoma is on par with Georgia Tech.
I'd say Nebraska is on par with Penn State.

The rest aren't worthy of being mentioned. If McCoy has had an easier schedule, it ain't by much.

But when you compare their stats:
McCoy -
7th in the country in passing efficiency
3rd in the country in passing TDs
147/217 (67.74%), 24 TDs, 4 INTs, 1,705 yards, 166.6 rating

Quinn -
22nd in the country in passing efficiency
6(t) in the country in passing TDs
193/303 (63.7%), 21 TDs, 4 INTs, 2,233 yards, 145.8 rating

Colt's been taken out of a few games pretty early. That's cut down on some of his stats (compare his number of attempts to that of Quinn). If Quinn were QBing at Texas, I'd imagine he'd have exited a few games early as well. So it'd be pretty difficult to imagine he'd have better numbers.

This year Oklahoma has the 27th best rushing defense (110 ypg) and the 19th best total defense.

2005 vs. OU 444 yards (206 rushing)
2006 vs. OU 244 yards (136 rushing)
And yet they still beat Oklahoma.

2005 team averaged 276 yards per game rushing (6 ypc)
2006 team averages 185 yards per game rushing (4.8 ypc)
Vince Young in '05 averaged 6.8 per.
Colt McCoy in '06 is averaging 3.2 per.

That alone could be enough to make up the difference.
Losing Taylor and VY hurts any rushing offense, but the Horns should have been able to compensate given their more experienced line and backfield. Charles numbers are down from last year (7.4 ypc to 5.9 ypc), even though he's older and healthier. I think it's pretty clear that this team should do a better job of running the ball, and McCoy with his 3 ypc average really doesn't scare anybody in the one read. Let McCoy pass and let the runners run.
On top of losing Vince Young, they've also lost Ahmard Hall, last year's FB, to the NFL.

You mentioned Taylor.

S. Young and Charles have already missed time this year due to injuries (neither played a down against SHSU). So despite being a year older, being healthier could be questioned.

They lost Jonathan Scott, last year's LT, to the NFL. He was replaced by Tony Hills. They lost Will Allen, last year's RG, to graduation. He was replaced by Cedric Dockery before he blew his knee out. Now Blalock is the starting RG while RS Freshman Adam Ulatoski is starting at RT. That's what you call a more experienced OL? Contrary to popular opinion, last year's OL was better than this year's.

They're starting a RS Freshman QB that will scare nobody with his legs and allow you to put 8/9 players in the box to force him to beat you with his arm.

The defense isn't playing close to what last year's was which is cutting down on the number of possesions by the offense. Not to mention the clock rule change imposed this year that is also cutting down on the number of snaps during the game.

Despite all that, they're ranked 20th in the country in rushing.

Could they do a better job rushing the ball? Sure...just as last year's team could've. If/When teams realize if they force Colt to beat them with his arm and he does and they finally back some players off the LOS, you're going to see the running game improve (and at the same time, McCoy's numbers are going to decline).

When you can pass the ball when you need to as well as run the ball when you need to, that's a balanced offense. That's a goal of teams across the country.

Huge
11-01-2006, 12:36 AM
But that is where the real difference is.

Rice, UNT, SHSU who on Brady Quinn's schedule is on par with them?
Stanford is below all of 'em.
Navy would get a good game from Rice and UNT.
UCLA did get a good game from Rice.
Has Purdon't done much of anything this year?

kastofsna
11-01-2006, 08:32 AM
i love when people nitpick and break down the schedule to this point. it's fascinating. the arguments are great:

"oh yeah? well i think stanford would kick rice's ass any day of the week pal! and that's why brady quinn is better than colt mccoy."