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Texans86
09-21-2006, 02:39 AM
MSN's weekly QB ratings. While this is supposed to be objective and quantitative, they admit that these numbers are still skewed this early in the season. Still, there are three key catagories that Carr did well in, and I don't know how skewed they are. He is #1 on 3rd down, 2nd in the fourth quarter (aided by Colts and company), and #3 in the last two minutes. Third down and the last two minutes are not something that can get skewed a whole lot. Either you convert or you don't, as the defense is always trying get off the field. And the two minute drill is extemely important as well. Hopefully he will keep these ratings high in the coming weeks.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5983350

real
09-21-2006, 09:41 AM
Third down and the last two minutes are not something that can get skewed a whole lot. Either you convert or you don't, as the defense is always trying get off the field. And the two minute drill is extemely important as well. Hopefully he will keep these ratings high in the coming weeks.


I'm not going to get into the whole Garbage time thing...but....I will say that his stats so far aren't really that impressive considering the circumstances under which he has operated.... I don't want to get into the whole, "he was playing second teamers" bit....but I believe it's easier to pad your stats in a blowout game when you basically have no chance of winning....I would rather Carr perform well when the game is on the line, or when we are actually marching down the field for a win, and not just because the game isn't over...

Not saying that I'm not impressed with his performance...because I do think he has improved and I don't think QB is a problem for us now...I just think within the first two weeks of the season all stats should be taken with a grain of salt especially when you consider when and how he put those stats up...

jerek
09-21-2006, 10:21 AM
#1 on third down? Wow. I would have thought that would be Peyton Manning.

HOU-TEX
09-21-2006, 10:29 AM
#1 on third down? Wow. I would have thought that would be Peyton Manning.

I would agree to say they're a little skewed. As a team we're 7/20 on third down versus our opponents being 17/25. To me, that's pathetic! I personally don't car much for his stats at all if we're not performing well as a team.:twocents:

infantrycak
09-21-2006, 10:32 AM
#1 on third down? Wow. I would have thought that would be Peyton Manning.

It should be--they are going purely off QB rating and Carr has a longer ypa bumping his rating over Manning's--plus a much smaller sample size.

Carr--5 of 8, 62.5% for 12.5 ypa, 1 TD 145.8 QB rating
Manning--18 of 25, 72% for 9.6 ypa, 4 TD's 141.7 QB rating

No doubt about it Manning is a better.

jerek
09-21-2006, 10:54 AM
It should be--they are going purely off QB rating and Carr has a longer ypa bumping his rating over Manning's--plus a much smaller sample size.

Carr--5 of 8, 62.5% for 12.5 ypa, 1 TD 145.8 QB rating
Manning--18 of 25, 72% for 9.6 ypa, 4 TD's 141.7 QB rating

No doubt about it Manning is a better.

Thanks for doing the research for me. Makes sense now. Still a big improvement for DC and one to be happy about but no reason to mischaracterize the comparison.

Vinny
09-21-2006, 11:02 AM
stark example of how stats in football do not translate cleanly as in other sports with more one on one matchups. On mb's around the league there are people who didn't watch the game pointing to the Sunday gameday stats thinking Carr has outplayed Manning. For instance the first Texans pass longer than 11 yards was in the 13 min mark of the 4th quarter against the Colts and the offense has yet to score. Game over at that point.

powerfuldragon
09-21-2006, 11:09 AM
#1 on third down? Wow. I would have thought that would be Peyton Manning.
Nah, peyton doesn't let his team get to third down.

Vinny
09-21-2006, 11:11 AM
Nah, peyton doesn't let his team get to third down.
He destroyed us on 3rd down ....when the game was on the line. Over and over.

Cjeremy635
09-21-2006, 11:17 AM
He destroyed us on 3rd down ....when the game was on the line. Over and over.

Yeah, we've got to find a way to stop teams from converting or we won't stand a chance against anyone. On the flip side, our offense has got to stay on the field, eat some clock, and let our defense get a breather. We need to be clicking on all cyclinders for us to win any game this year. There are no "gimmies" in our schedule as I see it.

Runner
09-21-2006, 11:23 AM
He destroyed us on 3rd down ....when the game was on the line. Over and over.

Yep - he averaged over 10 yards per third down play against us. Since I doubt we held them to negative yardage the first two plays, "destroyed" is a good description.

Porky
09-21-2006, 11:43 AM
The game was basically over on the second play of the game. Vinny is right. Stats can sometimes give you a general idea, especially if someone is consitently producing, but you have to watch the game to really know for sure. For instance, Jay Foreman used to lead our team in tackles. We had people on here thinking he was being dissed because he wasn't considered pro-bowl material. If you were astute, and actually watched the games, you know why Foreman wasn't considered even average, much less pro-bowl material. Anyone know where Foreman is now?

TexansLucky13
09-21-2006, 11:47 AM
There was no "Garbage time" in the Eagles game, yet Carr still put up 200 yards, a TD and a passer rating of 102. But of course that doesn't matter to anyone.

real
09-21-2006, 11:50 AM
There was no "Garbage time" in the Eagles game, yet Carr still put up 200 yards, a TD and a passer rating of 102. But of course that doesn't matter to anyone.

Thats not really the point....If you look at D.Carr's numbers so far they would lead you to believe that he is a great, maybe even top 5 QB...Thats not the case...his numbers don't really indicate his level of play....

Vinny
09-21-2006, 11:53 AM
There was no "Garbage time" in the Eagles game, yet Carr still put up 200 yards, a TD and a passer rating of 102. But of course that doesn't matter to anyone. Doesn't matter to me. Stats are fools gold. No doubt at all that Carr has improved, but don't cram a stat line down our throats and tell us he is great. If Carr continues to take to Kubiak's coaching he may yet get there since he has every tool in the box...but let's be real about this in the mean time.

Porky
09-21-2006, 11:54 AM
There was no "Garbage time" in the Eagles game, yet Carr still put up 200 yards, a TD and a passer rating of 102. But of course that doesn't matter to anyone.

No garbage time? I would say that's extremely debatable. Although the score wasn't totally out of control, for all intents and purposes, once the Eagles scored on thier first posession of the second half, that game was over, and imo, indeed we were in garbage time from that point on.

Cjeremy635
09-21-2006, 11:55 AM
Thats not really the point....If you look at D.Carr's numbers so far they would lead you to believe that he is a great, maybe even top 5 QB...Thats not the case...his numbers don't really indicate his level of play....


Well technically, I know I'm gonna get hammered for this comment, but I honestly think he has the talent to be in the top 5 QB category if he has the time to throw the ball. It's a catch 22 though becuase the ones that are in the top 5 make due with what they have....and what they have is a better O-line than ours, plane & simple. :twocents:

real
09-21-2006, 11:56 AM
Well technically, I know I'm gonna get hammered for this comment, but I honestly think he has the talent to be in the top 5 QB category if he has the time to throw the ball. It's a catch 22 though becuase the ones that are in the top 5 make due with what they have....and what they have is a better O-line than ours, plane & simple. :twocents:

I like kinetic energy....this potential stuff is for soothe sayers....

HOU-TEX
09-21-2006, 11:58 AM
No garbage time? I would say that's extremely debatable. Although the score wasn't totally out of control, for all intents and purposes, once the Eagles scored on thier first posession of the second half, that game was over, and imo, indeed we were in garbage time from that point on.

To further extend your point, the Eagles could've easily scored on thier final drive. They were moving the ball at will (man that's getting to be a familiar phrase).:crying:

TheOgre
09-21-2006, 12:02 PM
How does the old saying go?

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

http://www1c.btwebworld.com/quote-unquote/p0000149.htm

eriadoc
09-21-2006, 02:30 PM
I'd be curious to see how many of those 8 3rd-down pass attempts were made in the 4th quarter of the Colts game. If the team is 7 of 20 on 3rd downs, and Carr has 5, does that mean the rest of the team is 2 of 12 on 3rd-down attempts? Are the stats broken down into when they were attempted?

HJam72
09-21-2006, 02:37 PM
MSN's weekly QB ratings.

Why should I care what Bill Gates thinks of our QB? :wacko:

infantrycak
09-21-2006, 02:43 PM
I'd be curious to see how many of those 8 3rd-down pass attempts were made in the 4th quarter of the Colts game.

2--the only two times they faced 3rd down in the 4th qtr vs. the Colts. 3rd and 7 for the 33 yd TD to Daniels and 3rd and 11 for 29 yds to Moulds.

Hulk75
09-21-2006, 02:55 PM
Who would you rather have on our team..................Or Even who is better?

Bob Sanders or CC Brown

Marlyn Jackson or Lewis Sanders

Mike Doss or Glenn Earl

eriadoc
09-21-2006, 02:57 PM
2--the only two times they faced 3rd down in the 4th qtr vs. the Colts. 3rd and 7 for the 33 yd TD to Daniels and 3rd and 11 for 29 yds to Moulds.

So, has third down been Carr's Achilles Heel so far? I'm not sure what the league-wide percentage is, but by my count, Carr is 5 of 12 in 3rd down situations, not counting sacks (of which there have been two on 3rd down). That's a combo of passing and running. He's also 1 of 2 on 4th down conversions. I'm pretty sure 5 of 12 is probably about average. The running backs are 2 of 5, but there have been a couple playcalls that gave no chance for the conversion.

I looked up the play-by-play, FWIW. It might add a little context to the 3rd down conversions, anyway.

vs. Eagles
1st Quarter

3-9-HOU24 (13:36) D.Carr pass short right to J.Putzier to 50 for 26 yards (S.Considine).
3-6-PHI35 (11:02) D.Carr scrambles up the middle to PHI 30 for 5 yards (S.Barber).
4-1-PHI30 (10:13) D.Carr up the middle to PHI 28 for 2 yards (D.Jones).
3-11-HOU29 (5:05) V.Morency right guard to HST 26 for -3 yards (S.Barber).
4-14-HOU26 (4:27) C.Stanley punts 48 yards to PHI 26, Center-B.Pittman. B.Westbrook to PHI 31 for 5 yards (R.Alexander, C.Anderson). (Punt hang time 5.0 seconds.)
3-16-HOU34 (:32) D.Carr pass short right to A.Johnson pushed ob at HST 40 for 6 yards (R.Hood).

2nd Quarter

4-10-HOU40 (15:00) C.Stanley punts 55 yards to PHI 5, Center-B.Pittman. B.Westbrook to PHI 16 for 11 yards (T.Evans, J.Cook). (Punt hang time 5.2 seconds.)
3-2-50 (9:15) V.Morency right tackle to PHI 47 for 3 yards (B.Bunkley).
3-7-PHI44 (7:55) D.Carr sacked at HST 49 for -7 yards (T.Cole).
4-14-HOU49 (7:55) (Punt formation)PENALTY on HST-C.Stanley, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at HST 49 - No Play.
4-19-HOU44 (6:07) C.Stanley punts 31 yards to PHI 25, Center-B.Pittman, fair catch by B.Westbrook.
3-16-PHI16 (1:15) D.Carr pass incomplete short right (J.Trotter).
4-16-PHI16 (1:07) K.Brown 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-B.Pittman, Holder-C.Stanley.

3rd Quarter

3-6-PHI40 (8:22) D.Carr sacked at 50 for -10 yards (J.Kearse).
4-16-50 (7:46) C.Stanley punts 42 yards to PHI 8, Center-B.Pittman, fair catch by B.Westbrook. (Punt hang time 4.8 seconds.)
3-13-HOU35 (4:01) D.Carr pass incomplete to O.Daniels (T.Cole).
4-13-HOU35 (3:56) C.Stanley punts 47 yards to PHI 18, Center-B.Pittman. B.Westbrook to PHI 27 for 9 yards (D.Polk). (Punt hang time 5.3 seconds.)

4th Quarter

3-10-50 (11:15) D.Carr scrambles to PHI 34 for 16 yards (S.Considine).
3-6-PHI19 (9:26) D.Carr scrambles right end ran ob at PHI 17 for 2 yards (M.Patterson).
4-4-PHI17 (9:00) D.Carr pass incomplete short right to A.Johnson (S.Considine).
**never got the ball back in the final nine minutes of the game - pathetic**

vs. Colts
1st Quarter

3-17-HOU17 (11:25) W.Lundy left tackle to HST 25 for 8 yards (G.Brackett, M.Jackson).
4-9-HOU25 (10:56) C.Stanley punts 38 yards to IND 37, Center-B.Pittman, fair catch by T.Wilkins.
3-5-IND40 (5:47) D.Carr pass short right to E.Moulds to IND 34 for 6 yards (N.Harper).
3-1-IND25 (4:02) W.Lundy up the middle to IND 23 for 2 yards (D.Klecko).
1-10-IND23 (3:29) W.Lundy left guard to IND 19 for 4 yards (M.Reagor). FUMBLES (M.Reagor), RECOVERED by IND-M.Reagor at IND 19. M.Reagor to IND 19 for no gain (W.Lundy).

2nd Quarter

3-16-HOU25 (9:33) D.Carr pass incomplete short middle to O.Daniels (C.June).
4-16-HOU25 (9:28) C.Stanley punts 38 yards to IND 37, Center-B.Pittman. T.Wilkins to IND 44 for 7 yards (T.Evans).
PENALTY on IND-M.Giordano, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 44.
3-9-IND32 (2:04) S.Gado up the middle to IND 25 for 7 yards (G.Brackett, B.Sanders).
4-2-IND25 (1:58) K.Brown 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-B.Pittman, Holder-C.Stanley.

3rd Quarter

3-9-HOU21 (7:14) D.Carr scrambles right end to HST 23 for 2 yards (R.Mathis).
4-7-HOU23 (6:36) C.Stanley punts 43 yards to IND 34, Center-B.Pittman. T.Wilkins to IND 45 for 11 yards (B.Pittman).
3-5-HOU26 (2:08) D.Carr sacked at HST 20 for -6 yards (R.Brock). FUMBLES (R.Brock), and recovers at HST 23. D.Carr to HST 23 for no gain (G.Brackett). Minus 3 sack yards.
4-8-HOU23 (1:44) C.Stanley punts 46 yards to IND 31, Center-B.Pittman. T.Wilkins pushed ob at IND 31 for no gain.
PENALTY on HST-J.Simmons, Illegal Motion, 5 yards, enforced between downs.

4th Quarter

3-7-IND33 (11:43) D.Carr pass deep right to O.Daniels for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3-11-IND39 (1:03) D.Carr pass short right to E.Moulds to IND 10 for 29 yards (M.Doss).

Hulk75
09-21-2006, 03:07 PM
Who would you rather have on our team..................Or Even who is better?

Bob Sanders or CC Brown

Marlyn Jackson or Lewis Sanders

Mike Doss or Glenn Earl

Because Bob Sanders, Mike Doss, Marlyn Jackson and Jason David were all in in the 4th Q.

Lets look at it this way I know the other guys were off the field like the Freeneys and Junes and Mathis but just look at what he can do against these DBs of the Colts when given time.

Andres TD was on Jason David............Owens was over Jackson and Mike Doss...............and Brueners I believe was on Jason David again.

So if the Colts DBs are better then ours then all of Peytons TDs were Garbage too.

blockhead83
09-21-2006, 11:48 PM
Because Bob Sanders, Mike Doss, Marlyn Jackson and Jason David were all in in the 4th Q.

Lets look at it this way I know the other guys were off the field like the Freeneys and Junes and Mathis but just look at what he can do against these DBs of the Colts when given time.

Andres TD was on Jason David............Owens was over Jackson and Mike Doss...............and Brueners I believe was on Jason David again.


So if the Colts DBs are better then ours then all of Peytons TDs were Garbage too.

Well put. I guess the difference was Carr had time to throw the ball........

Goldeagle
09-22-2006, 12:03 AM
2--the only two times they faced 3rd down in the 4th qtr vs. the Colts. 3rd and 7 for the 33 yd TD to Daniels and 3rd and 11 for 29 yds to Moulds.

Lets not forget Andre DROPPED that quick slant on third down and so did the Fullback on an outlet pass.

Goldeagle
09-22-2006, 12:04 AM
Because Bob Sanders, Mike Doss, Marlyn Jackson and Jason David were all in in the 4th Q.

Lets look at it this way I know the other guys were off the field like the Freeneys and Junes and Mathis but just look at what he can do against these DBs of the Colts when given time.

Andres TD was on Jason David............Owens was over Jackson and Mike Doss...............and Brueners I believe was on Jason David again.

So if the Colts DBs are better then ours then all of Peytons TDs were Garbage too.

I believe either Mathis or Freeney were injured and that was the reason they came out

HOOK'EM
09-22-2006, 05:10 AM
Carr is headed for the probowl!

HJam72
09-22-2006, 07:05 AM
Carr is headed for the probowl!

LOL, if that were to actually happen, he'd get fewer votes from Houston than anywhere.

Hulk75
09-22-2006, 09:42 AM
Lets not forget Andre DROPPED that quick slant on third down and so did the Fullback on an outlet pass.

Dont get me started on that guy, this guy has dropped a ball I think in every game this year and everygame last year, AND nobody says anything.

Chad Johnson and these guys will catch or atleast do what ever they can to catch the football. Did anyone see Wards catch on the sideline on Monday night, and he does not have half of the ability that Andre has, the guy has got to play better.

AND stop! Catching the ball with your chest,, you know what that tells me he does not trust his hands right now.

run-david-run
09-22-2006, 12:02 PM
Dont get me started on that guy, this guy has dropped a ball I think in every game this year and everygame last year, AND nobody says anything.

Chad Johnson and these guys will catch or atleast do what ever they can to catch the football. Did anyone see Wards catch on the sideline on Monday night, and he does not have half of the ability that Andre has, the guy has got to play better.

AND stop! Catching the ball with your chest,, you know what that tells me he does not trust his hands right now.

That drop was acctually on second down. The next play was the 30 yard bomb to Daniells. In retrospect...

Goldeagle
09-22-2006, 01:05 PM
Dont get me started on that guy, this guy has dropped a ball I think in every game this year and everygame last year, AND nobody says anything.

Chad Johnson and these guys will catch or atleast do what ever they can to catch the football. Did anyone see Wards catch on the sideline on Monday night, and he does not have half of the ability that Andre has, the guy has got to play better.

AND stop! Catching the ball with your chest,, you know what that tells me he does not trust his hands right now.


He has had a ton of dropped passes in his career.

hollywood_texan
09-22-2006, 01:22 PM
I'd be curious to see how many of those 8 3rd-down pass attempts were made in the 4th quarter of the Colts game. If the team is 7 of 20 on 3rd downs, and Carr has 5, does that mean the rest of the team is 2 of 12 on 3rd-down attempts? Are the stats broken down into when they were attempted?

Here ya go...

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/playbyplay/NFL_20060917_HOU@IND

You have to do your own analysis, but the data you need is right there.

eriadoc
09-22-2006, 01:33 PM
Here ya go...

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/playbyplay/NFL_20060917_HOU@IND

You have to do your own analysis, but the data you need is right there.

LOL, thanks. But if you look three posts down from the one you quoted, I did the analysis and posted it so everyone can share :)