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View Full Version : Some pessimistic forecasting - what would you do?


eriadoc
09-18-2006, 02:49 PM
OK, take into account Carr's play throughout two games so far. He's been inconsistent, he's had tough breaks, he's made bonehead plays, and he's shown some progress as well.

Our defense has performed horribly, no two ways about it. They've given up big plays at all points on the field and at any given point in the game. Our running game has been largely non-existent.

If Carr continues to play as he's played so far, and our running game and defense continues to play like they've played so far, and we finish with the worst record in the NFL, do you want to draft RB, QB, or defense, assuming a #1-worthy pick of each is available?

hollywood_texan
09-18-2006, 02:57 PM
OK, take into account Carr's play throughout two games so far. He's been inconsistent, he's had tough breaks, he's made bonehead plays, and he's shown some progress as well.

Our defense has performed horribly, no two ways about it. They've given up big plays at all points on the field and at any given point in the game. Our running game has been largely non-existent.

If Carr continues to play as he's played so far, and our running game and defense continues to play like they've played so far, and we finish with the worst record in the NFL, do you want to draft RB, QB, or defense, assuming a #1-worthy pick of each is available?

If Carr keeps playing the same, as well as the rest of team, for the next two home games, they need to trade Carr and get value before the end of the season.

This appears to be many years in the making and I don't see how he can hang in there that long for winning season for the Texans.

RiotCommander
09-18-2006, 02:58 PM
If the team looks exactly as it has these last two games for the rest of the year I would draft Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin. Then move Spencer inside to Guard. Hopefully by then E. Winston would be our starting RT.


In the second round I would get a FS, or CB depending on BPA.

I feel that right now Carr is playing well enough to keep trying with him. Gato has show flashes that he can get it done on the ground. I may not be doing what people want, but I feel we need to work on the line.

real
09-18-2006, 03:02 PM
If Carr keeps playing the same, as well as the rest of team, for the next two home games, they need to trade Carr and get value before the end of the season.

This appears to be many years in the making and I don't see how he can hang in there that long for winning season for the Texans.

I don't know when the trade deadline is but I seriously doubt he gets traded before that time...

eriadoc
09-18-2006, 03:05 PM
Yeah, a trade's not happening, so leave that scenario out. If Carr gets traded by week six (trade deadline, IIRC), then I'll happily eat crow. For now, I'm not looking up recipes.

real
09-18-2006, 03:10 PM
If We end up with a top three pick I only see three options...Draft Calvin Johnson, Draft Peterson, Trade down...I would really like Johnson...I think he is a freak of nature....I also like trading down..and I'm not really sold on Peterson being the best back in next years draft...

Xman
09-18-2006, 03:15 PM
You take the best player. But, being equal, I would take QB, CB, RB, DE, OT, LB in order (franchise qbs/cbs are too valuable to pass up, a top 3 DE/OT/LB usually is a pillar also - for a RB to be worth this high a pick he has to be a Faulk/Dickerson type, which Peterson is and Bush was).

At this point, it appears this draft does not have a top CB (see GBN projection below). Which sucks for us a top CB would fill our biggest hole and make our entire defense look much better.

Adrian Peterson is worth the pick and would fill a huge need.
QB would work also. I have not given up on Carr, but if there is a potentially great QB there, then take him (you don't pass up on an Elway/Manning because you have Carr/Delhomme - - even if it is to pick Lawrence Taylor).
WR, which isn't a need, is strong in this draft. Maybe too strong to pass on.


Team Player
POS
School

1 Oakland (1)
Brady Quinn
QB
Notre Dame

2 San Francisco
*Calvin Johnson WR
Georgia Tech

3 Houston (1)
*Adrien Peterson
RB
Oklahoma

4 New Orleans *Ted Ginn
WR
Ohio State

5 Buffalo Joe Thomas
OT
Wisconsin

6
Green Bay
*Marshawn Lynch
RB
California

7
Tennessee
Paul Poluzsny
LB
Penn State

8 Detroit
Quentin Moses
DE
Georgia

9 New York Jets
*Sydney Rice
WR
South Carolina

10 St. Louis
Justin Blalock
OT
Texas

11
Minnesota
Brandon Meriweather
FS Miami
12
Cleveland
Quinn Pitcock DT
Ohio State
13 Washington
*Frank Okam
DT
Texas

14 Arizona
*Jake Long
OT
Michigan

15 San Diego
*Dwayne Jarrett
WR
Southern California

16 Kansas City
*Alan Branch
DT
Michigan

17 Tampa Bay
Doug Free
OT
Northern Illinois

18
Baltimore
Levi Brown
OT
Penn State

19 Jacksonville
*Antoine Cason
CB
Arizona

20
Dallas
*Sam Baker
OT
Southern California

21
Chicago
*Greg Olsen
TE
Miami

22 Miami
*Lawrence Jackson
DE
Southern California

23 Atlanta
Michael Griffin
FS
Texas

24
Cincinnati
*Zach Miller
TE
Arizona State

25
Philadelphia
H.B. Blades
LB
Pittsburgh

26 New England
Jeff Samardjiza
WR
Notre Dame

27 New York Giants
Brandon Mebane DT
California
28 Pittsburgh
Adam Carriker
DE
Nebraska

29
Seattle
*Darrelle Revis
CB
Pittsburgh

30 Denver
Gaines Adams
DE
Clemson

31
Indianapolis
Patrick Willis
LB
Mississippi

32 Carolina Clark Harris
TE
Rutgers

Vinny
09-18-2006, 03:17 PM
I'd like to see more picks like Ryans who didn't impress people when he was in shorts but nobody questions his football ability. We have taken workout warrior after workout warrior (or "ideal measurables guy") in our short history and it has proven to produce a bad team. Ideal measurables and great 3-cone drill stats are great and all...if you run a gymnastics team.

wrestler4life
09-18-2006, 03:22 PM
OK, take into account Carr's play throughout two games so far. He's been inconsistent, he's had tough breaks, he's made bonehead plays, and he's shown some progress as well.

Our defense has performed horribly, no two ways about it. They've given up big plays at all points on the field and at any given point in the game. Our running game has been largely non-existent.

If Carr continues to play as he's played so far, and our running game and defense continues to play like they've played so far, and we finish with the worst record in the NFL, do you want to draft RB, QB, or defense, assuming a #1-worthy pick of each is available?
No way we finish with the worst record. That will belong to the Raiders

real
09-18-2006, 03:24 PM
No way we finish with the worst record. That will belong to the Raiders

The Raiders have played two tough teams also...Ravens, and Chargers...

They haven't looked good but it's only the second game...

Hervoyel
09-18-2006, 03:25 PM
Here's what I think happens if no progress appears (and I don't consider that likely).

Our defensive line doesn't get a thing. We have youth, strength, speed, and experience there. If our defensive line coach can't get a pass rush out of Babin, Peek, Weaver, Payne, Johnson, and Williams by next season then he needs to go because he's doing something wrong.

In free agency we find either a veteran CB or FS and get some leadership back there with all those kids. This becomes our big signing of 2007 much like Moulds was for last year. This guy (especially if it's a CB) will do for Robertson what Eric Moulds is doing for AJ. He'll settle him down and take some of the attention off of him. He'll help "grow him up" some. Mostly he'll keep him from becoming frustrated. Dunta needed Glenn badly last year. He still needs someone like that on the other side.

I say the Texans get a veteran as opposed to using a draft pick because it's not just a case of Sanders/Buchanon/Faggins aren't good enough. They're also not experienced enough. Nobody back there has led, even by example since Glenn and Coleman went out the door. They need somebody back there who's "seen the elephant". If it's a CB then it will be CB (and I expect it to be one), if it's a FS then it will be a FS. Whichever position has the guy they want that's what they'll pursue. The one that's left over will be drafted and I think that's most likely to happen in the 2nd round.

We may not actually end up needing a RB. By the time next season gets here we may already be set with Gado or maybe some combination of Dayne/Gado will be able to buy us another season before we have to really focus on RB.

I don't think we'd even consider drafting a QB unless Carr just completely craters this season. Even then I think Kubiak would trade for one or sign a FA QB before he'd spend the pick. there's just too much to fix and if Carr is really truly broken for good then it's not like we're going to be winning anytime soon. One season being led by 2007's version of Jon Kitna won't matter much in the long run.

Personally I think we go into the draft looking for a LB and a FS with picks one and two.

Mr. White
09-18-2006, 03:25 PM
The worst case scenario is 0-16. We'll get the #1 pick agai....aw, hell no.

Snapple
09-18-2006, 03:30 PM
I still think David Carr isn't the real problem. He's done a lot of good, considering that he has zero time to throw and gets blindsided every other play due to o-line ineptitude.

And guess what? If we draft another QB before we fix the o-line, we're just going to screw up the next guy's confidence and mechanics, too. And that won't help us in the least.

As for who to draft next year, I'll say the same thing I said earlier this year. When you're at the top of the draft, you grab the best player available, you don't fill a need. If you don't want to take the BPA, you trade down. BPA or trade down. You do not overdraft a need player with the top pick, ever. Stupid stupid stupid.

noxiousdog
09-18-2006, 03:30 PM
I'd like to see more picks like Ryans who didn't impress people when he was in shorts but nobody questions his football ability. We have taken workout warrior after workout warrior (or "ideal measurables guy") in our short history and it has proven to produce a bad team. Ideal measurables and great 3-cone drill stats are great and all...if you run a gymnastics team.

That sounds well and good (and in many cases works fine... Ryans was the best player on the best defense), but that causes you to pass up guys like Julius Peppers and Peyton Manning. Hell, it would have caused you to pass up Reggie Bush.

But, whatever it is we have been doing isn't working, so I guess somehow we've got to separate the Ryans from the Wands.

cuppacoffee
09-18-2006, 03:45 PM
The worst case scenario is 0-16. We'll get the #1 pick agai....aw, hell no.

.........:rofl:



:coffee:

Porky
09-18-2006, 04:18 PM
That sounds well and good (and in many cases works fine... Ryans was the best player on the best defense), but that causes you to pass up guys like Julius Peppers and Peyton Manning. Hell, it would have caused you to pass up Reggie Bush.

But, whatever it is we have been doing isn't working, so I guess somehow we've got to separate the Ryans from the Wands.

Peppers fits to a certain extent, but I don't get the references to Manning or Bush. Sure, they had good/great workout numbers, but they earned their draft slot by proving it on the field, quite the opposite of a true workout warrior, which is what Vinny is (I think) correctly pointing to.

Vinny
09-18-2006, 04:20 PM
I just think we value size and speed and "ideal measurables" too heavily when we evaluate players. For instance I think that Carr has ideal measurables and can make any pass but I think his football instincts are rotten. We passed Deion Branch for Gaffney because Gaff measured better...not because he was more instinctive. I could go on and on.

beerlover
09-18-2006, 04:23 PM
I just think we value size and speed and "ideal measurables" too heavily when we evaluate players. For instance I think that Carr has ideal measurables and can make any pass but I think his football instincts are rotten.

that is exactly Casserlys IMO. hopefully Smith will be different :cool:

WhyIsItAlwaysNextYear
09-18-2006, 04:29 PM
Is impossible to speculate to much on picks at this point cause there is no way to know who will develop throughout the year! Thats the thing I like about the way Kubiak coaches with accountability, even in games where you are losing people are learning and making strides. Who knows with more experience what our D line and secondary will become. Maybe nothing but who knows! It would be nice to have another Stud LB to put along side Ryans, he has such a fast motor it would be great to see a pair flying around taking away the short pass and laying hits on the backs that make it through the line.

noxiousdog
09-18-2006, 04:55 PM
Peppers fits to a certain extent, but I don't get the references to Manning or Bush. Sure, they had good/great workout numbers, but they earned their draft slot by proving it on the field, quite the opposite of a true workout warrior, which is what Vinny is (I think) correctly pointing to.

Manning couldn't beat Tennessee, and Bush wasn't even allowed on the field for the game deciding play (in addition to all the off the field stuff). I'm just saying that it's easier said than done.

I am a big believer in the concept. you could give me a team full of Terrell Buckleys and Demeco Ryans. I'm glad we went for Dunta Robinson instead of Pac-man Jones. I'm very happy that Detroit was more impressed with Charlie Rogers than Andre Johnson.

We passed Deion Branch for Gaffney because Gaff measured better...not because he was more instinctive.

If you watched them in college, I'd certainly defer to you, but Gaffney put up modestly better numbers against significantly better competition.

Vinny
09-18-2006, 05:02 PM
If you watched them in college, I'd certainly defer to you, but Gaffney put up modestly better numbers against significantly better competition.I'm not big on "numbers" when evaluating players and I'll dump that kind of thinking in with workout warrior logic. I think you have to watch the players and grade them on instinct and suddeness and how they play the game of football with an attidute and don't think that there are enough one on one matches in the NFL to make 'numbers' translate cleanly like in other sports. Just looking at stats are for fantasy football guys.

nunusguy
09-18-2006, 05:10 PM
Manning couldn't beat Tennessee, and Bush wasn't even allowed on the field for the game deciding play (in addition to all the off the field stuff). I'm just saying that it's easier said than done.
I am a big believer in the concept. you could give me a team full of Terrell Buckleys and Demeco Ryans. I'm glad we went for Dunta Robinson instead of Pac-man Jones. I'm very happy that Detroit was more impressed with Charlie Rogers than Andre Johnson.
If you watched them in college, I'd certainly defer to you, but Gaffney put up modestly better numbers against significantly better competition.
I believe D-Rob and Pac-man were in 2 different drafts. Perhaps you meant Sean Taylor ?
But that's a good point about Bush, and I never appreciated the true significance of it until I saw him in the NFL. He is not a running back in this
league because he can't run inside the tackles with any authority. He's clearly
more of a receiver, who may be very good at that position in the NFL.
But other top picks like AJ Hawk and Vernon Davis had extremely impressive
workouts, though they were certainly productive on the field to.

TheOgre
09-18-2006, 05:10 PM
If you base players on production alone, you end up drafting the Ron Dayne's, Akili Smith's and Ryan Leaf's of the world.

cred
09-18-2006, 05:12 PM
Manning couldn't beat Tennessee, and Bush wasn't even allowed on the field for the game deciding play (in addition to all the off the field stuff). I'm just saying that it's easier said than done.

I am a big believer in the concept. you could give me a team full of Terrell Buckleys and Demeco Ryans. I'm glad we went for Dunta Robinson instead of Pac-man Jones. I'm very happy that Detroit was more impressed with Charlie Rogers than Andre Johnson.



If you watched them in college, I'd certainly defer to you, but Gaffney put up modestly better numbers against significantly better competition.


Pac-man Jones and Robinson were in two different drafts I believe, so there goes that theory.

hollywood_texan
09-18-2006, 05:15 PM
I'm not big on "numbers" when evaluating players and I'll dump that kind of thinking in with workout warrior logic. I think you have to watch the players and grade them on instinct and suddeness and how they play the game of football with an attidute and don't think that there are enough one on one matches in the NFL to make 'numbers' translate cleanly like in other sports. Just looking at stats are for fantasy football guys.

Vinny, I think you are right here.

I have read several quotes of NFL players that are starters in the league and they say they are were not the fastest or strongest guys in their draft class, but they were able to succeed in the league will the other guys, the faster and stronger guys that is, didn't cut it.

I think Casserly was really big into spreadsheets, stats, and numerical evaluations. Which could be the biggest reason why the Texans are where they are today.

srstex
09-18-2006, 05:17 PM
OK, take into account Carr's play throughout two games so far. He's been inconsistent, he's had tough breaks, he's made bonehead plays, and he's shown some progress as well.

Our defense has performed horribly, no two ways about it. They've given up big plays at all points on the field and at any given point in the game. Our running game has been largely non-existent.

If Carr continues to play as he's played so far, and our running game and defense continues to play like they've played so far, and we finish with the worst record in the NFL, do you want to draft RB, QB, or defense, assuming a #1-worthy pick of each is available?

Your thought process is a mess, Carr has thrown for 4 Tds NO Int's with a passer rating of 123 over two games 3rd best in the NFL. He lost one fumble, please, Warren Moon holds the the all-time record for fumbles by a QB, with David Kraig second, would you trade Moon too ? If carr gets hit on a three step drop BEFORE he gets set, it's the lines fault, and the line coaches that are letting this continue. The only year our line showed real improvment was year two, Chester Pitss at LT, we cut the sack total by almost half, then Capers put in Wand, Riley, and every other swinging gate he could find, that was the problem, Chester Pitts is the solution.

eriadoc
09-18-2006, 06:05 PM
Your thought process is a mess, Carr has thrown for 4 Tds NO Int's with a passer rating of 123 over two games 3rd best in the NFL. He lost one fumble, please, Warren Moon holds the the all-time record for fumbles by a QB, with David Kraig second, would you trade Moon too ? If carr gets hit on a three step drop BEFORE he gets set, it's the lines fault, and the line coaches that are letting this continue. The only year our line showed real improvment was year two, Chester Pitss at LT, we cut the sack total by almost half, then Capers put in Wand, Riley, and every other swinging gate he could find, that was the problem, Chester Pitts is the solution.

LOL! My thought process is a mess! I'm pretty sure I at least insinuated that Carr is not the biggest problem on this team, while running game and defense are. Given that, I was curious as to what people thought we should draft, if we could draft today, or nothing changed.

I might not be as peaches-n-cream about Carr as you sound like you might be, but I'm not relegating him to the scrap heap just yet, either. As I said, he's showing signs of progress. He'll need more progress by the end of the year, but I'm hopeful.

noxiousdog
09-19-2006, 09:53 AM
Pac-man Jones and Robinson were in two different drafts I believe, so there goes that theory.

My bad. DeAngelo Hall. Though, Robinson has better measurables than Hall iirc.

HomeBred_Texan
09-19-2006, 10:04 AM
We have always and will always need that stud running back that we have never gotten. Until that time, we will continue at our current pace. Yes, our defense sucks right now, so let's get people on offense and keep them off the field. I wanted De'Angelo Williams last year so bad I could scream. But that didn't happen. Every year it is the same ol same ol. Until we fix, not patch the running game, we will never be affective as we can be...

noxiousdog
09-19-2006, 10:08 AM
I'm not big on "numbers" when evaluating players and I'll dump that kind of thinking in with workout warrior logic. I think you have to watch the players and grade them on instinct and suddeness and how they play the game of football with an attidute and don't think that there are enough one on one matches in the NFL to make 'numbers' translate cleanly like in other sports. Just looking at stats are for fantasy football guys.

How can you compare them like that when they are facing drastically different competition? Gaffney was playing Miami in the BCS while Branch was playing against Colorado state in the Liberty Bowl.

Are you saying that you watched enough tape on Branch and Gaffney to see that Gaffney had trouble catching balls in traffic, while Branch managed to get the job done? And saw it consistently enough to make such a judgement?

If so, I'll certainly defer to you in draft threads :)

Not that the Texans (or any other scouting office) shouldn't do such a thing. But Gaffney never struck me as a guy that couldn't catch, just a guy that couldn't get open. Maybe it was the Florida system that gave him such productivity.

kcwilson
09-19-2006, 11:18 PM
You take the best player. But, being equal, I would take QB, CB, RB, DE, OT, LB in order (franchise qbs/cbs are too valuable to pass up, a top 3 DE/OT/LB usually is a pillar also -

The answer is: The worst thing that could ever happen to the messageboards.

The question is: What happens if the Texans take a QB with their #1 pick next year.

The mere thought that we take a QB next year with the #1 pick when we could have taken Vince Young this year will unequivaocably cause posters to bombard the boards... overworking the servers to hyperspeed, forcing the earth to spin off its access and create a black hole in the universe.

It will be armageddon.

Texizgreat
09-19-2006, 11:39 PM
How many picks do we get next year and in what rounds?