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View Full Version : Preseason - does it really matter?


LBC_Justin
08-22-2006, 03:46 PM
On Sirius NFL radio, they were talking about the importance of preseason as it relates to how a team performs during the regular season. Very interest. If you look at the stats, it most certainly translates.

Article from 2004. Very interesting.
click here ->Preseason Games Count (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/7552424)
interesting...9 out of 10 most recent superbowl teams had a .500 or better record in preseason. Almost all of them had a winning record.

This article is also very very interest. In fact it shows that Preason matters for every team!! (Lots of great stats in this one.)
click here ->Should you worry about preseason wins and losses? (http://www.twominutewarning.com/preseason-matter.htm)

I know, I know. Someone on here is going to post.....but the 05' Cheifs and the 05' Colts lost all of their preseason games and they had great seasons....or.....Look at Spurier's Redskin's they went undefeated in preseason and they sucked. Well there most certainly are exceptions to the rule.

The numbers don't lie:

From 1997 to 2005 (pretty much the salary cap era)
0 Preseason wins / 7.1 Average # of Regular Season games won
1 Preseason wins / 7.3 Average # of Regular Season games won
2 Preseason wins / 7.9 Average # of Regular Season games won
3 Preseason wins / 8.5 Average # of Regular Season games won
4 Preseason wins / 9.0 Average # of Regular Season games won

I got these stats from one of the articles mentioned above. It also has several other charts that are quite interesting. But it is not all Roses and Rainbows...The article does contain this line, "There's only modest evidence that poor teams with good preseason records stand a better shot of being competitive in the regular season."
But as a Texans fan I am choosing to ignore that one. :redtowel:

GO TEXANS

- revamped defense (including a shiny new pass rush, and a new concept...allowing players to do what they are good at.)
- retooled offense (replacing the outdated "one receiver threat" offensive scheme used before with the "take your pick, we have numberous weapons" offense.)
- new coaching staff (Kubiak is trying something new, instead of "writing in a little notebook" ala Capers, Kubiak is now doing something called "coaching" his players or maybe it is "yoaching" with a "C" being silent, not sure, anyways I hear it is the lastest rage.)
-replacing "bend but don't break" and "keep it close" with something new called, "Lets destroy these guys" and "win and win big".
-add in the preseason success and i see a bright future and most importantly I have HOPE.

did i mention...... :redtowel:GO TEXANS:redtowel:

real
08-22-2006, 03:51 PM
On Sirius NFL radio, they were talking about the importance of preseason as it relates to how a team performs during the regular season. Very interest. If you look at the stats, it most certainly translates.

Article from 2004. Very interesting.
click here ->Preseason Games Count (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/7552424)
interesting...9 out of 10 most recent superbowl teams had a .500 or better record in preseason. Almost all of them had a winning record.

This article is also very very interest. In fact it shows that Preason matters for every team!! (Lots of great stats in this one.)
click here ->Should you worry about preseason wins and losses? (http://www.twominutewarning.com/preseason-matter.htm)

I know, I know. Someone on here is going to post.....but the 05' Cheifs and the 05' Colts lost all of their preseason games and they had great seasons....or.....Look at Spurier's Redskin's they went undefeated in preseason and they sucked. Well there most certainly are exceptions to the rule.

The numbers don't lie:

From 1997 to 2005 (pretty much the salary cap era)
0 Preseason wins / 7.1 Average # of Regular Season games won
1 Preseason wins / 7.3 Average # of Regular Season games won
2 Preseason wins / 7.9 Average # of Regular Season games won
3 Preseason wins / 8.5 Average # of Regular Season games won
4 Preseason wins / 9.0 Average # of Regular Season games won

I got these stats from one of the articles mentioned above. It also has several other charts that are quite interesting. But it is not all Roses and Rainbows...The article does contain this line, "There's only modest evidence that poor teams with good preseason records stand a better shot of being competitive in the regular season."
But as a Texans fan I am choosing to ignore that one. :redtowel:

GO TEXANS

- revamped defense (including a shiny new pass rush, and a new concept...allowing players to do what they are good at.)
- retooled offense (replacing the outdated "one receiver threat" offensive scheme used before with the "take your pick, we have numberous weapons" offense.)
- new coaching staff (Kubiak is trying something new, instead of "writing in a little notebook" ala Capers, Kubiak is now doing something called "coaching" his players or maybe it is "yoaching" with a "C" being silent, not sure, anyways I hear it is the lastest rage.)
-replacing "bend but don't break" and "keep it close" with something new called, "Lets destroy these guys" and "win and win big".
-add in the preseason success and i see a bright future and most importantly I have HOPE.

did i mention...... :redtowel:GO TEXANS:redtowel:

Does it say anything about the correlation between QB performance in the pre and regular season ?

jerek
08-22-2006, 03:53 PM
Good research. Interesting reading if nothing else.

I think preseason matters, but for some teams more than others. Last year's Colts went 0-5 IIRC and finished 13-1 before more or less benching their starters to drop the last 2.

For the Texans, I think it (a) is a proving grounds for many of our depth chart battles, and (b) gives us a taste of winning, and (c) playing Kubiak-style ball. (B) and (C) are especially important for our franchise in this particular stage of development.

For other teams, in which the lineups and/or coaching are more established, it's less consequential IMO.

infantrycak
08-22-2006, 04:01 PM
From 1997 to 2005 (pretty much the salary cap era)
0 Preseason wins / 7.1 Average # of Regular Season games won
1 Preseason wins / 7.3 Average # of Regular Season games won
2 Preseason wins / 7.9 Average # of Regular Season games won
3 Preseason wins / 8.5 Average # of Regular Season games won
4 Preseason wins / 9.0 Average # of Regular Season games won

That really isn't a large spread. What would be interesting IMO is to examine the records of teams in the preseason of seasons they made either big jumps up or down, ex. Raiders after their SB loss or Chargers prior to their 4-12 to 12-4 reversal.

Grid
08-22-2006, 04:07 PM
When people say preseason doesnt matter.. I dont think they literally mean that it doesnt matter.

A good team is gonna do better..thats a given.

What they mean is that you cant say "We lost all of our preseason games, the season is over".. because preseason is NOT an "end all be all" indicator of your team's ability.

ojthecat
08-22-2006, 04:28 PM
I wish that they would give us a discount on tickets and consessions during the preseason games.

Double Barrel
08-22-2006, 05:01 PM
When people say preseason doesnt matter.. I dont think they literally mean that it doesnt matter.

A good team is gonna do better..thats a given.

What they mean is that you cant say "We lost all of our preseason games, the season is over".. because preseason is NOT an "end all be all" indicator of your team's ability.

Exactly. The attitude of the team is what matters during pre-season. This year is a world of difference between pre-season 2005, when they came out flat and without any energy or attitude.

I've maintained that pre-season wins can be fool's gold, only because you have to temper your excitement with the reality that the games don't count in record books. But by the same token, these games give fans a chance to see what might be and to get a glimpse of the feel of the team.

Nawzer
08-22-2006, 05:10 PM
Exhibition or preseason games mean very little when it comes to baseball or basketball. It's mainly used to see how the young players are doing and get the vets some action. I think in football the result isn't as important as seeing your players perform and executing plays. But in our case, we were the worst team last year and I think wins no matter how "meaningless" they seem are important. If nothing else I think preseason gives the players a gauge of what they need to do to improve and it gives coaches some game film to look at.

BigDTexansFan
08-22-2006, 05:17 PM
That is a misleading stat as last time New England Patriots won Super Bowl they went 0-4 in preseason. I like what Kubiak is doing with preseason in Houston, seeing what he has in terms of players and working on offense and defense. Preseason really is meaningless, UNLESS your team didn't do very good at all last season.

Then back to back preseason wins are GREAT, doesn't mean regular season is a cakewalk. BUT it makes you feel like there is something to believe in

Divebomb
08-22-2006, 05:31 PM
I feel that pre-season is probably the most exciting time for me. First off you see more effort and desire as guys are trying to make a team. The overall record means nothing as a view of the team. I would say that the first half of the second game and the third game as a whole, give you a great view of what is to come in the season. The fourth game will give a great view of the backups who are very important but the game is nothing. Saturday is going to be huge for the Texans and this city.

phantom17
08-22-2006, 06:19 PM
This team IMHO needs to win preseason or any games for that matter just for the simple fact that this team needs a confidence booster! Let's face it, the majority of players on this team hasn't tasted victory enough! These players need to get some swagger! And winning is the only remedy, preseason, regular, or playoffs! :cowboy1: :)

Hookem Horns
08-22-2006, 06:30 PM
I look a preseason this way. I just see how the teams perform (especially when the starters are in there) to make my judgements. I put more weight into the half time score than I do the final score.

I knew last year, that we were going to have a long season during that Tampa Bay preseason game. We just looked brutal.

I think it is already safe to say that teams like Tennessee and possibly even the Chiefs are going to struggle this season. I am not going off their records either, just the way they have looked.

BTW, I seem to remember according to Capers that we had a 20 game preseason last year. After starting 0-4 he would say "This is a 12 game season ..." After 0-5 ... "This is a 11 game season ...." I guess we went all the way down to a 1 games season until he realized we just had a 20 game preseason.

I am sure one of Bob's first questions to Kubiak was "How many games do you think are in a season?".

thunderkyss
08-22-2006, 07:30 PM
If there was anything.... anything at all, that anyone could possibly do to jinx us, and ruin our pre-season win streak....... this is it.

we'd have been much better off with another David Carr thread. If you were just bored, you could have asked me, and I would have started it for you. Honestly, I don't mind.

But this...... hell......

thunderkyss
08-22-2006, 07:43 PM
When people say preseason doesnt matter.. I dont think they literally mean that it doesnt matter.

A good team is gonna do better..thats a given.

What they mean is that you cant say "We lost all of our preseason games, the season is over".. because preseason is NOT an "end all be all" indicator of your team's ability.


I think different teams are working on different things.... some are testing their offensive firepower, while others are sorting through their defensive personell.....

Bill Parcells is playing his little SuperBowl, and Payton is trying to find out if his QBs is shell shocked...

LBC_Justin
08-22-2006, 07:59 PM
That is a misleading stat as last time New England Patriots won Super Bowl they went 0-4 in preseason. I like what Kubiak is doing with preseason in Houston, seeing what he has in terms of players and working on offense and defense. Preseason really is meaningless, UNLESS your team didn't do very good at all last season.

Then back to back preseason wins are GREAT, doesn't mean regular season is a cakewalk. BUT it makes you feel like there is something to believe in
someone didn't read the links i orginally posted. read this (http://www.twominutewarning.com/preseason-matter.htm)<- click there.

preseason means the most to the teams in the middle of the pack. Then to the top teams.

The Patriots were a fluke, one of a small hand full of teams that have ever won 10+ games and lost all their preseason games. Cheifs, Colts, Patriots. This comment is like saying...Cigerettes don't cause cancer. I know a guy who smokes a pack a day and lived to be 100, and a non-smoker that died of lung cancer at the age of 55. Well that happens but the stats say that is the exception and not the rule.

Bottom line is that preseason matters, but I agree you don't pin you hopes and dreams on how your team does in preseason but understand that it is a decent barometer for how your team is going to do during the regular season. It isn't meaningless, but it isn't even close to the end all, be all.

Using those stats from 1997 to 2005 (nine years of stats)

If you won 0 preseason games
22% chance of winning 10+ games
39% chance of winning 7-9 games
39% chance of winning 6 games or less

If you won 1 preseason games
25% chance of winning 10+ games
31% chance of winning 7-9 games
44% chance of winning 6 games or less

If you won 2 preseason games
38% chance of winning 10+ games
24% chance of winning 7-9 games
38% chance of winning 6 games or less

If you won 3 preseason games
36% chance of winning 10+ games
36% chance of winning 7-9 games
28% chance of winning 6 games or less

If you won 4 preseason games
44% chance of winning 10+ games
37% chance of winning 7-9 games
19% chance of winning 6 games or less

I found this interesting. I hope y'all did too.

Bamaborn-Texasbred
08-22-2006, 08:00 PM
I heard once that those good Cowgirl teams of the 90's always played bad in the preseason. That is word of mouth. I haven't checked it myself.

If the formula holds true we should win about 7.9 games, at least. I hope the majority of them are at home. It is tough getting up at 7:30 a.m. to go up to houston from galveston to tailgate and then see our boys get pasted.

LBC_Justin
08-22-2006, 08:07 PM
I heard once that those good Cowgirl teams of the 90's always played bad in the preseason. That is word of mouth. I haven't checked it myself.

If the formula holds true we should win about 7.9 games, at least. I hope the majority of them are at home. It is tough getting up at 7:30 a.m. to go up to houston from galveston to tailgate and then see our boys get pasted.
If i have learned anything from watching the last two games it is this. We may lose our share of games, but I don't think we are going to get pasted all to often. This team is coming to compete this year. More than any year in the past. Regardless of record. I think this will be the best team we have had.

LBC_Justin
08-22-2006, 08:12 PM
also, regarding the Colts.

If Peyton Manning gets injured they are going to look a lot more like the 0-4 preseason Colts, than the 14-2 Colts of last year.

Looking at the schedule, they are facing some mean pass rushes this year. It might be the year that Peyton snaps (Literally).

Texans Pride
08-22-2006, 08:22 PM
It's very interesting, I brought up this exact same topic last year, right around this time. We had played three games and were showing nothing but signs of regression.

This is my own quote from that thread:

http://www.houstontexans.com/fan_zone/messageboards/showthread.php?p=158069#post158069


Many have stated on this board that the preseason doesn't matter. That it is a time to learn and practice. The point has even been raised that the Patriots went 0-4 on their way to winning a Super Bowl.

So I raise the question, does the preseason matter? I'm not asking in terms of wins and losses, but overall progression of the team, and indications of how the team will do.

Here is my opinion:

The preseason does mean something, it shows progress of our starters in a new offensive scheme, it shows how our revamped defense is coming along, it shows the depth that we have beyond our starters, and it shows a will and drive to win!

So far I have not seen much that indicates we are a different team then when the Browns defeated us last year.

I'd like to see our team play with a sense of urgency to win...preseason or not, it fires up the team...

Pretty soon this team is going to get used to losing, it seems some of the fans already have.

I stand behind the statment 100% today, just as I did then. Many on the board stated I was off, and that the preseason didn't matter, we were on the way to great things; obvioulsy 2-14 was not a great thing. Go back and read the thread if interested, there are some pretty interesting thoughts.

So does it matter? Yes, greatly. We are now 2-0, and although it's only preseason, it's obvious this is a different team, and one that everyone (even John McClain) is excited about.

http://blogs.chron.com/nfl/

I know it's just preseason, but considering how pathetic the Texans looked in the 2005 preseason -- not to mention during a 2-14 regular season -- it's hard not to get excited about their 2-0 start, including Saturday night's 27-20 victory at St. Louis.

LBC_Justin
08-22-2006, 08:30 PM
Nope, none of that matters. I truely don't think you guys grasp exactly how meaningless preseason is.
LOL my quote from that thread. What a difference a year makes huh.

After seeing our team follow that miserable preseason with a miserable year, I have done a 180. plus who wants to believe their team sucks.

Viewing the stats clears up the picture in my mind.

My buddy that played in the NFL still to this day thinks the preseason is a waste of time.

Jwwillis
08-22-2006, 08:39 PM
I am changing my tune this year. I learned my lesson last year. I was blindly defending Carr, Capers, Palmer, Casserly and their pre-season record. I made a fool of myself in front of all my football friends im my fantasy league. All are gone but Carr and Im not defending him anymore. He has to produce!

cuppacoffee
08-22-2006, 11:01 PM
I am changing my tune this year. I learned my lesson last year. I was blindly defending Carr, Capers, Palmer, Casserly and their pre-season record. I made a fool of myself in front of all my football friends im my fantasy league. All are gone but Carr and Im not defending him anymore. He has to produce!

Something I learned long ago about eating my share of crow...

First, you make a roux in a large cast iron pot.......:D

you can ask any cajun how to make a roux.

:coffee:

The Pencil Neck
08-23-2006, 01:34 AM
Something I learned long ago about eating my share of crow...

First, you make a roux in a large cast iron pot.......:D

you can ask any cajun how to make a roux.

:coffee:

But you will roux the day they tell you.

cuppacoffee
08-23-2006, 01:05 PM
But you will roux the day they tell you.

Yeah it ain't fun.

Hows that old saying go "Lord make my words soft and tender for some day I may have to eat them" or something to that effect....:fridge:

Just part of the MB game I suppose.

:coffee: