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View Full Version : The Texans 2006 Season - A Psuedo Scientific Study


Texans_Chick
07-18-2006, 01:02 PM
The most recent blog post is called:

Take the Texans test: How do YOU think they will do? (http://blogs.chron.com/fanblogtexans/2006/07/take_the_texans_test_how_do_yo.html)

It talks some about predictions of the Texans season record, and basically, I am looking at a couple of things for my experiment.

Do people's record guesses affected by whether they are an optimist, pessimist or some where in the middle?

Are people's first impressions more accurate than their reasoned view of guessing win-losses?

Are knowledgeable Texans fans more accurate in predicting records than people that don't know much about the team?

To understand what I am getting at, you have to read the post. I don't think it will be terribly accurate but I am thinking it would be interesting to read down the road. And I am really interested to hear people's reasons on this.

OzzO
07-18-2006, 01:32 PM
Another great one TC, especially appreciate the 610 link to Johnny Mac's interview with Bob McNair - he got quite a few questions out there that alot have been wondering or speculating on. (McNair got a few subliminal zingers in as well.) John needs to host more radio shows. :)

Also, after that interview.... I wanna go work for Bob McNair as well.

Being neither an optimist or pessimist consistantly (middle of the road 38, it seems) and my "blink" impression is anywhere from 6 to 9 win season as a Texans fan as I feel we're closer to '04's 7-9 than 05's 2-14, leaning more towards over .500 for the first time. Last year, the wheels just fell off.

More "reasoned" analysis game per game looks to be about 8 wins. So, I guess from all of the above, I'm a middle of the road, .500 season expecation setting Texans fan.

Good article, nice interaction. (posted the same thing in your blog as well)

TwinSisters
07-18-2006, 03:45 PM
O joy! More psychology... you must of did time at Sam Houston or Stephen F. Austin?

Take Test:
49 - round on the end, hi in the middle undecider decider

Blink:

4-12

Reasoned:

3-13

Rookie coach ( seasoned head coaches often stumble out of the gates )
Defensive backfield suspect and will face top 5 NFL QBs
Offensive line is not fixed ( cannot count on injuries )
Sherman failed and imploded in Green Bay with injuries to his line
Defensive coaches are unknown ???
QB is unproven
ZBS takes time to perfect
Running game could collapse quickly with one fatal injury to an already chipped up Davis ( not sure if we have a Samkon Gado riding the pine )
media pressure will be extremely intense ( they all say it doesn't matter, but it matters )
We play the East Coast and will be in the spotlight for the better part of the season; New York to New England, the pressure will be acute to say the least. ( I've already been called a cowskull while minding my own business )
tired of typing already.
---
I am Texan fan though... so if I had a six pack to spare, I would bet all six of them on a 14-2 finish. There hasn't been a single game played yet that I haven't thought they we couldn't win it.

"I would climb the deepest river
Swim the highest mountain
I would wash my feet in lemonade
If that will do the trick

I would dip my pig in butter
And ride him round the playground
If I thought it would ...get us to the playoffs
I would put soup on a stick
SOUP ON A STICK"

:whoohoo:

2006 CARR MVP

Worst to First!

Texans_Chick
07-18-2006, 05:36 PM
O joy! More psychology... you must of did time at Sam Houston or Stephen F. Austin?




Actually no. Never took a psychology class in my life nor gone to those fine institutions. Though psych classes might come in handy being a Texans fan.

I wasn't even planning on writing that post. It just happened when I started noodling the ideas of pessimism/optimism and knowledge. When you goof off on the MB, you see people that seem overly optimistic or pessimistic but you figure those people don't see that in themselves.

And we've all had the situation where the secretary down the hall wins the March Madness pool, even though she knew the least about the brackets. So is it legit to say, hey that guy can't predict the Texans season, they don't know what is happening? Or is it possible that those snapshot views might be mroe accurate than those who pay attention to every headline.

Love for you to cut and paste your answer in the comments of the blog. I really do want to look at this again next year, and your answer was good.

Double Barrel
07-18-2006, 07:34 PM
Your total is 38. You may use both strategies or neither strategy consistently.

That's about right. I'd be stoked if we ended up 8-8 this season, which doesn't seem like a great record in the NFL, but would be awesome for this franchise at this point in their history.

Blink 7-9

Reasoned 5-11

Great article, TC! :thumbup

edo783
07-18-2006, 09:13 PM
O joy! More psychology... you must of did time at Sam Houston or Stephen F. Austin?


IIRC, TC is a proud grad of Texas with a Philosophy Degree. That would have some of the same internal reflection that a Psychology degree would.

The Pencil Neck
07-18-2006, 10:25 PM
Posted on the fanblog, too.

50 - Neither may use either or both.

Blink: 7-9

Reasoning: 5-11

I think it's possible for the Texans to go 8-8 this year and that's what I'm hoping for. But... I'm expecting 5-11. I think that there have been so many changes in schemes and personnel that it's going to take some time for everything to gell and I think we're going to have a nasty losing streak at the start of the season.

I'm still worried about our offensive line and with DD's knees and Morency's feet, I'm really worried about our running back situation, too.

So... 5-11.

Texans_Chick
07-18-2006, 10:35 PM
Deleted in its entirety.

:texflag:

sigh

edo783
07-18-2006, 11:02 PM
Sorry counselor, my bad. Don't go sueing or or something for mis-representing the facts. LOL I knew you had the philosophy degree and were a grad of Texas, just didn't know they weren't connected. :hides:

Texans_Chick
07-18-2006, 11:34 PM
Sorry counselor, my bad. Don't go sueing or or something for mis-representing the facts. LOL I knew you had the philosophy degree and were a grad of Texas, just didn't know they weren't connected. :hides:

Never sued anyone in my life. Just have tried to help people out. Like to keep it that way. No need to be askeered. :cool:

TwinSisters
07-19-2006, 06:04 AM
....Love for you to cut and paste your answer in the comments of the blog. I really do want to look at this again next year, and your answer was good.

No such doing. Since you took the good fight to McClain, your column has garnered a little bit too much attention for myself. I cannot count the number of times I see your blog pop up in Google News when I am trying to find something about the Texans. You are doing well enough on your own.

Besides that, you are a liar or your scientific source is flawed. You are an optimist and one paragraph is not even enough to make a 'good' analysis of why I think this way or that way ( you say it is good because you are an optimist ). You would have to back up all the statements with links, resources, and citations to make good statements... plus I got so depressed typing about all the bad things, that I just quit before I starting typing about the good things. So that made me a quitter too ( along with being lazy ).

Philosophy and Political Science... no wonder you took Law later. Nothing like going to school to learn that you know that what you know is not worth as much as not knowing what you know and just convincing everyone else that you did before they know what they know that they didn't know before you told them that you knew it. That will be 5 cents please.

Just like I knew you were a product of one of those liberal arts schools and took the guess to play off of your guessing about why we guess about what we know and don't know or even if we knew how we guess; it's Epistemology squared before you punt.

Besides that you are too good looking to have gone to that Pig Farm and too drive friendly howdy to have spent much time in a foreign school. That was my guess and why.

I bet a more accurate test for the likes of you would be Hegel or Schopenhauer? I guess that you would say Hegel .938 with a tie and no losses.

Football man!! YEaH buddy.

DocBar
07-19-2006, 06:25 AM
I got a 60, but it's my job to obsess over details and worry what could go wrong(millions of $$ in equipment and/or people could be severely damaged otherwise). My blink test is 8-8 but so is my rationalized analysis. I would get more in depth, but it's 5:30 AM and I'm severly jetlagged and I want to veg and watch some TV. Should be interesting to read the "rest of the story"(insert Paul Harvey's voice).

CoachJim
07-19-2006, 08:14 AM
Philosophy and Political Science... no wonder you took Law later. Nothing like going to school to learn that you know that what you know is not worth as much as not knowing what you know and just convincing everyone else that you did before they know what they know that they didn't know before you told them that you knew it. That will be 5 cents please.

WHAT? ... could you translate that into english please?

My score, a 55 ... I am surprisingly to myself, a defensive pessimist.

Blink: 10-6

I'll come back & fill in the last part because I am now officially late for work after taking Ms.Freud's psyche exam.

Texans Horror
07-19-2006, 08:35 AM
Hook 'Em Horns!!!

I'm thinking 9-7, our first winning season. Realistically, though, I'm going for 6-10. Despite improving in almost every area of the game, the Texans are still "young." I expect there to be many more close games, but without the abysmal fourth quarter/OT shortcomings of last year.

bigtex77
07-19-2006, 08:59 AM
I scored a 59 and am now labeled a "defensive pessimist". Guess you learn something new everyday.

Blink: 9-7 (If everything falls into place I think it could happen)

After reasoning: 6-10
1. New coaches/schemes (could be just what the doctor ordered or yet another season of futility, nobody knows right now)
2. I'm still not sold on the o-line, i'm sorry, but they scare me to death.
3. Can Mario hold up to the hype?

TEXANRED
07-19-2006, 09:12 AM
I think I am confused. I scored a 66 making me a defensive pessimist.

I never thought of myself as a pessimist. I always look for the bright out come and go in with a positive attitude but I like to plan ahead in case things go wrong. I like knowing what to do and what to say and not getting cornered or taken by surprise. Kinda like driving in traffic, you don't think the other car in the other lane is going to come over and side swipe you but just in case I know where all the cars are in traffic and have a plan of action. That line of thinking has come in handy once or twice.

That being said, I say 10-6. If the bears can go 3-13 and then 13-3 why not the Texans? Besides, the Texans have a good mixture of youth and veteran leadership from players to the coaching staff.

Its going to be a good year. Even getting to go to four games.

Texans_Chick
07-19-2006, 10:05 AM
I think I am confused. I scored a 66 making me a defensive pessimist.

I never thought of myself as a pessimist. I always look for the bright out come and go in with a positive attitude but I like to plan ahead in case things go wrong. I like knowing what to do and what to say and not getting cornered or taken by surprise. Kinda like driving in traffic, you don't think the other car in the other lane is going to come over and side swipe you but just in case I know where all the cars are in traffic and have a plan of action. That line of thinking has come in handy once or twice.

Maybe you are a defensive optimist. :) Her theory is just a theory. Personally, I do not think that being someone who prepares for contingencies is someone who can't also have an optimistic outlook on things.

TwinSisters
07-19-2006, 10:19 AM
WHAT? ... could you translate that into english please?


It's a joke. Or it was a joke. Because if you have to explain a joke, then it's no longer funny. Jokes have to be funny. Unless of course they are not so funny that they then become funny again for lack of being not that funny in the first place. So maybe it is still a joke? I am not sure... you think you have me confused now. No wait... the other way around.

anyway I will explain it
first a quiz legend
http://www.snopes.com/glurge/schulz.asp

second, I robbed it all from Matt Groening a philosophy major
Matt Groening: Well, it wasn't what I always wanted to do. I was actually a philosophy major in college, but, uh, let me tell you, if you're a philosophy major in college, cartoonist is basically the only career open to you.:homer: creator
http://snard.com/sg/guide/?ep=28&fmt=0

He robbed the lines of lawyers and philosophy from the dialectics and epistemology schools ( two branches of philosophy )
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dialectic
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epistomology

dialectic methods are used by lawyers to their own devious ends to make money with philosophy.

then for the finish
http://www.wm.edu/amst/370/2005/sp1/childhood_dr.spock.htm
The philosopher in Schulz

the football
http://jeremyfreese.blogspot.com/peanuts_football2.jpg

and the stand
http://www.wm.edu/amst/370/2005/sp1/images/lucy%20doctor%20stand.jpg

see it's funny... and informational.

Texans_Chick
07-19-2006, 10:40 AM
I bet a more accurate test for the likes of you would be Hegel or Schopenhauer? I guess that you would say Hegel .938 with a tie and no losses.

Football man!! YEaH buddy.

Kierkegaard missed the punt.

Not much going on with real news, so I got to figure stuff to write until real stuff goes on. I could do only straight sports stuff but it isn't nearly as fun. And it is all about fun.

TwinSisters
07-19-2006, 10:58 AM
Kierkegaard missed the punt.


Aaugh!!

hmmph.

Interesting... that's closer to Schopenhauer. BUT I shall not participate any further in this line of discussion and shall yield right of way. :)

( but I do have to leave a parting shot... Schopenhauer had better hair then Kierkegaard )

srstex
07-19-2006, 11:03 AM
I don't know that being a defensive optimist, or and offensive pesimist will help in my forcast, because on the blink I can see10-6, but last year I said the same, and looking at it realisticly I can see 6-10. SO to rationalize my record I can say that the brain trust has a great scheme but everyone involved came from programs that were in place for more than one year ( last year was not Lovie Smith's first year for Da'Bears ) so Kubiak will not have a years experience being the man. This years AFC South schedule is a killer based on last years reults, and even the mighty Colts could be 1-3 to the NFC teams this year. ( Against the Giants the Colts need to be more worried about the Giants pass rush and not the Manning-to-Manning aspect of the game ) Smith could be a great back for Kubiak, his age may worry the coaches, and DD is a 1000 yard back with no real plan, so this offense will should help him a great deal. The passing game will work IF it is used enough to make the opposeing defenses repect it. And defense, there are enough veterans to more than make up for any short comings with the rookies.