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View Full Version : Tracking the #1 pick over the season


GrandPa
05-03-2006, 06:25 PM
We do not at this time know if the #1 pick was a good pick or a bad pick...

I realize that it is difficult to track an offensive player against a defensive player but you can track an offensive player against his peers and a defensive player against his peers and you can track for team impact...

For Mario Williams I am planning to track: Sacks, Tackles, Assists, Fumble Recoveries, Forced Fumbles and Touchdowns.

For Reggie Bush I am planning to track: Rushing and Receiving Attempts, Yards, Fumbles and Touchdowns. Will also have to track any Special Team yardage.

Any additional stats that need to be tracked???

SnakeOilTanker
05-03-2006, 06:35 PM
tickets and jerseys sold!....duh, why else would you pick a player

ThaShark316
05-03-2006, 06:37 PM
We do not at this time know if the #1 pick was a good pick or a bad pick...

I realize that it is difficult to track an offensive player against a defensive player but you can track an offensive player against his peers and a defensive player against his peers and you can track for team impact...

For Mario Williams I am planning to track: Sacks, Tackles, Assists, Fumble Recoveries and Touchdowns.

For Reggie Bush I am planning to track: Rushing and Receiving Attempts, Yards, Fumbles and Touchdowns. Will also have to track any Special Team yardage.

Any additional stats that need to be tracked???

Williams - Tackles for loss (TFL)
Bush - cant think of any.

eltoro
05-03-2006, 06:38 PM
I don't know if it is easily measurable, but I would like to see how both players change the way opposing offenses/defenses adjust their gameplans around the respective player. Additionally, I think if you are going to count fumbles that you should also look at missed tackles.

thunderkyss
05-03-2006, 06:40 PM
We need to establish what we consider to be worthy of the selection. How many sacks/hurries tackles for loss, and fumbles forced do we need to say Mario was worthy of the #1 pick??


How many rushing yards, recieving yards, ypc, TDs, etc...... does Reggie need, before we can say he was worthy of the #1 pick(is anyone questioning this??)

Texas
05-03-2006, 06:40 PM
God get over reggie bush jesus

Trap_Star
05-03-2006, 06:41 PM
We do not at this time know if the #1 pick was a good pick or a bad pick...

I realize that it is difficult to track an offensive player against a defensive player but you can track an offensive player against his peers and a defensive player against his peers and you can track for team impact...

For Mario Williams I am planning to track: Sacks, Tackles, Assists, Fumble Recoveries and Touchdowns.

For Reggie Bush I am planning to track: Rushing and Receiving Attempts, Yards, Fumbles and Touchdowns. Will also have to track any Special Team yardage.

Any additional stats that need to be tracked???

You're forgetting forced fumbles and tipped passes at the line of scrimmage. (He is 6'7" with a 40 in. vertical.) :)

gtexan02
05-03-2006, 06:59 PM
Running backs: Rushing/Receiving yards and yards per attempt, a long with touchdowns, fumbles

DE: Tackles, TFLs, Sacks, QB Pressures, FFs, PDs, and INTs

GoneTexan
05-03-2006, 07:04 PM
Really only one: Making the Probowl or the one with the Most Votes!:ok:

alphajoker
05-03-2006, 08:15 PM
How about defensive/offensive rankings? Last year the Texans were 31 in total D. I think the Saints in total offense were ranked around 20 or so.

tex2theend
05-03-2006, 10:40 PM
Bush - Days on IR
Williams - Days Manning, Leftwich, Young spends on IR

RB5
05-03-2006, 10:49 PM
Williams - Days Manning, Leftwich, Young spends on IR

Love it, but all that matters is WINS.

GrandPa
05-04-2006, 12:00 AM
You're forgetting forced fumbles and tipped passes at the line of scrimmage. (He is 6'7" with a 40 in. vertical.) :)

Added Forced Fumbles not sure tipped passes are a stat that is kept???

GrandPa
05-04-2006, 12:06 AM
God get over reggie bush jesus

Will not get over it until I am convinced that it is not one of the worst #1 draft picks ever...

Until then, deal with it because it will be talked about often and management should be held accountable for their actions, just like everyone should be...

shadowdrinker_x
05-04-2006, 12:40 AM
If you're going to track Williams ''Qb hurries'' you would have to track Bush's broken tackles and how many times He made people just flat out miss...in other words..it would get ridiculous...

Just see which one gets the better Fantasy numbers..haha..

It won't be too hard to tell if Mario was the ''better'' pick for you guys...what Bush does has nothing to do with the impact Mario has on your Team...

It's going to come down to much more than how many sacks Mario gets for you guys..if He gets hot, and starts getting sacks at an alarming rate, Teams will start to double Team him, and while his numbers would suffer, his contribution would be immeasurable...because He'd be freeing up other players, and making them better overall...That in itself is huge...

It's not just as simple as 123...you have to look at the big picture...I'm not sure how much Bush will help the Saints..He'll probably get 10 or so touches a Game, and if Teams have to scheme around him, then even if He never touches the ball..He's made an impact...

It's not comparable...All you can do is cheer for YOUR guy..in the big scheme 1 draft pick doesn't make a team...even if He flops, it's not the end of the World..many have flopped before him, and many will flop after He's gone...

I don't think He'll be a ''bust''..but I don't think He'll be a Hall of Fame DE either...

HJam72
05-04-2006, 02:13 AM
We have to keep track of how many times a player gets a tackle because of Mario and how many times a receiver or TE is open because of Bush--along with how much impact each player has in games verbally divided by how much they stink in locker rooms after each practice/game. :) We need a number formula for stench. It has a definite impact on their teammates outlook.

caspian
05-04-2006, 03:20 AM
We do not at this time know if the #1 pick was a good pick or a bad pick...

I realize that it is difficult to track an offensive player against a defensive player but you can track an offensive player against his peers and a defensive player against his peers and you can track for team impact...

For Mario Williams I am planning to track: Sacks, Tackles, Assists, Fumble Recoveries, Forced Fumbles and Touchdowns.

For Reggie Bush I am planning to track: Rushing and Receiving Attempts, Yards, Fumbles and Touchdowns. Will also have to track any Special Team yardage.

Any additional stats that need to be tracked???

I'm with you. No harm in knowing the numbers. Also track wins...versus Tennessee...and verses New Orleans. Just to know...

texman8
05-04-2006, 07:42 AM
If you want to compare individual stats,especially btw offensive and defensive players; it is not a fair comparison. You could measure the impact on the team's performance. Say, Texans' defense ranking in yardage given and scoring defense. Team wins is the final indicator.

HJam72
05-04-2006, 07:47 AM
I don't think team wins is much of an indicator. Obviously, you can't say that so and so was a better pick than so and so just because the Steelers won more games than the Titans. You could go by how many more or less we win this year compared to last year over how many the Saints win compared to last, but that will be skewed by a whole new coaching staff and other smaller factors as well--like the Saints moving to LA in mid-season or something. :)

Corrosion
05-04-2006, 10:40 AM
tickets and jerseys sold!....duh, why else would you pick a player


So what impact on the games outcome does jersey sales have ? :brickwall

thunderkyss
05-04-2006, 11:40 AM
I don't think team wins is much of an indicator. Obviously, you can't say that so and so was a better pick than so and so just because the Steelers won more games than the Titans. You could go by how many more or less we win this year compared to last year over how many the Saints win compared to last, but that will be skewed by a whole new coaching staff and other smaller factors as well--like the Saints moving to LA in mid-season or something. :)

Not only that, but we've added Ryans, Cowart, Weaver & kalu...... how do you gauge how much of an impact those players had on our team with what impact Mario had.

Offensively, I think we should take team rushing and passing stats into consideration with Reggie. My contention is that the Saints have averaged around 2000 yards rushing the last three years, and 3800 yards passing. For Bush to be an impact, those numbers have to improve, otherwise he's just taking stats away from other players. same thing with touchdowns. Last year wasn't the best example, but the Saints didn't really have a problem scoring points when they wanted to.

NederlandTexan
05-04-2006, 11:55 AM
This is going to tough to do, but have fun with it. Quality of opponent and strength of schedule needs to be taken into account. i.e. three sacks vs. Indy (20 in '05) is more impressive than three vs. Minnesota (54 in '05).

whiskeyrbl
05-04-2006, 12:07 PM
Take a look at 3 best players at the respective posistions for the last 5 years,and get an average from their rookie years, and then compare Mario and reggies' stats at end of year.

El Tejano
05-04-2006, 12:16 PM
Williams - Tackles for loss (TFL)
Bush - cant think of any.
Downs played. That was the big thing about drafting Bush. Is he an every down back?

El Tejano
05-04-2006, 12:20 PM
God get over reggie bush jesus
Aren't you glad The Saints didn't move to Texas. Imagine how many people would all of a sudden be San Antonio Saints fans.:brickwall

dtran04
05-04-2006, 12:21 PM
Aren't you glad The Saints didn't move to Texas. Imagine how many people would all of a sudden be San Antonio Saints fans.:brickwall

I thought people were Titan fans already......:)

BigBull17
05-04-2006, 12:32 PM
The best way to compare the two is the offensive and defensive rankings of both teams. If our rankings go up 10-14 rankings, then he is doing his job. Same with N.O, if their O blows people away than Reggiee is doing his job.

jerek
05-04-2006, 12:39 PM
We do not at this time know if the #1 pick was a good pick or a bad pick...

I realize that it is difficult to track an offensive player against a defensive player but you can track an offensive player against his peers and a defensive player against his peers and you can track for team impact...

For Mario Williams I am planning to track: Sacks, Tackles, Assists, Fumble Recoveries, Forced Fumbles and Touchdowns.

For Reggie Bush I am planning to track: Rushing and Receiving Attempts, Yards, Fumbles and Touchdowns. Will also have to track any Special Team yardage.

Any additional stats that need to be tracked???

This is a good start but I would surely add to it QB Hurries, for the DE.

Problem also is, well say Mario Williams hurries the QB into a bad throw and our DB records an interception for it. Partial credit should go to Mario, but never will as far as the stat sheet is concerned.

Likewise, Reggie Bush plays for the Saints. I don't know enough about their coaches, but their O-line is currently abysmal. If too the Saints are behind in a lot of games, they will be forced to pass the ball a lot. As well, Deuce will be commanding a lot of carries. Dependant on play calling, Reggie Bush may rush for a whole 900 yards, and people like me will be all over this board saying I told you so. But, is it fair to Reggie? Clearly, there are many teams he could go to at this time and have a lot more success with.

Football is the most team out of all team sports. Certainly, you can track stats as you have indicated you want to do, and statistical measures are a very valid part of determining merit and worth. But I would caution you against believing you fully encapsulate a player's worth like so.

thunderkyss
05-04-2006, 12:47 PM
The best way to compare the two is the offensive and defensive rankings of both teams. If our rankings go up 10-14 rankings, then he is doing his job. Same with N.O, if their O blows people away than Reggiee is doing his job.

So signing Drew Brees means nothing??

Bobo
05-04-2006, 12:58 PM
I think you're becoming a little too vindictive about this. The only kind of people who would want to do this are those who want to declare the pick a failed one and then rub it into Kubiak's/Casserly's/McNair's nose and say, "SEE? SEE?" First of all, you won't be able to rub anything into anybody's nose for a couple of years at least. If you will recall, when Ryan Leaf and Peyton Manning were the two QBs under the microscope, Leaf looked pretty good out of the box. It took a couple of years for Peyton to rise to the forefront and Leaf to fall apart. The bottom line for evaluation of the draft picks will be victories. If the Texans improve, which they probably will, then Williams will be given some credit -- not only for sacks and tackles, but hurries as well as forced turnovers. And it won't really matter what Bush does. If Williams does well for the Texans, then it won't be a "pass over Jordan for Bowie" thing. However, if Williams only picks up, say, six sacks for the year then folks might say he's not putting pressure on the passer and could be declared a failed pick. If the Saints improve, well, it could be hard to evaluate since Bush will be sharing time with both McAllister and Bennett and may also play some receiving positions. Still, it looks to me like Bush won't be an every-down player. So if Bush scores, say 7 TDs and rushes for 700 some yards in a part-time role, is that a good performance for a part-time player?

Bobo
05-04-2006, 01:00 PM
>Problem also is, well say Mario Williams hurries the QB into a bad throw and our DB records an interception for it. Partial credit should go to Mario, but >never will as far as the stat sheet is concerned.

I believe hurries are recorded -- they just aren't a very public stat.

jerek
05-04-2006, 01:06 PM
>Problem also is, well say Mario Williams hurries the QB into a bad throw and our DB records an interception for it. Partial credit should go to Mario, but >never will as far as the stat sheet is concerned.

I believe hurries are recorded -- they just aren't a very public stat.

Right. I believe they are recorded, just harder to find the numbers on.