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View Full Version : Mel Kiper on this drafts depth


1-3
04-06-2006, 06:44 PM
Quick quote from his recent chat which bodes very well for us with our picks.


Mel, just how deep is this draft? Are we looking at impact players through the 4th?

Mel Kiper: Yes. I'll tell you why. At the end of the third round, there will be 97 players taken. I have right now 45 players with first round ability, 41 as second rounders and 34 as third rounder. That's 120 players in the first three rounds. That takes you almost through the first four rounds. These are all quality players. I'm talking about in the early second day bringing in quality players. There are 120 players that are legitimate first three round players. That means I have 23 guys that will go in the fourth round that should have gone in the third round.

Sounds like we could do some damage if Casserly's hands are kept out of the draft pick cookie jar.

TexanFan881
04-06-2006, 06:56 PM
Thank god we kept that fourth round pick and gave the Bills a fifth :)

Kaiser Toro
04-06-2006, 06:57 PM
I think CC has done a good job in the draft except for Carr. It has been the off season where our acquisitions have not been great in my opinion.

The Dude Abides
04-06-2006, 07:02 PM
I think CC has done a good job in the draft except for Carr. It has been the off season where our acquisitions have not been great in my opinion.

Agreed for the most part. I think Carr is still an unproven commodity(sadly) and hopefully he can turn it around this year with the right system, enough weapons, and time to pass. Otherwise it's time to ship him out.

Mike Kerns
04-06-2006, 07:08 PM
Sounds like we could do some damage if Casserly's hands are kept out of the draft pick cookie jar.


I think I am going to lay off Casserly for a bit...

beerlover
04-06-2006, 07:19 PM
Sounds like we could do some damage if Casserly's hands are kept out of the draft pick cookie jar.

too late already, gone are the 1st picks of the 5th & 7th rds. :rolleyes:

nunusguy
04-06-2006, 07:51 PM
I think CC has done a good job in the draft except for Carr.
I think its very difficult for you to justify your criticism of the Carr pick.
Who else would we have taken at the time? Peppers? Peppers never projected
as a defensive lineman or LB in the 3-4, he's a 4-3 DE and since Cappers was always a 3-4 guy, Peppers would have been a totally inappropriate pick.
Should we have taken Harrington or OT Williams ? You tell me.
Now if you want to be critical with Carr's developement after he came to Houston to include the kind of personnel he was surrounded with to help
him succeed in an Xpansion franchise, thats a different subject all together. I'm right in there with you in being a critic if that whole process. But that's
Capers and his staff, not Casserly.

texman8
04-06-2006, 08:54 PM
Ditto....

texman8
04-06-2006, 08:56 PM
too late already, gone are the 1st picks of the 5th & 7th rds. :rolleyes:

Mmm...for Moulds and Walter;it was worth it....by replacing Gaffney and Bradford.

Dunta_23
04-06-2006, 09:16 PM
too late already, gone are the 1st picks of the 5th & 7th rds. :rolleyes:

Indeed, for 1 4 time pro-bowl steady # 2 reciever and the 7th for an up and coming big target at WR that the front office felt could make our team...unlike most/if not all 7th round picks

Hervoyel
04-06-2006, 09:17 PM
Sounds like we could do some damage if Casserly's hands are kept out of the draft pick cookie jar.


So far this offseason it's looked to me like Casserly's doing a fine job when he's not filling orders from Dom & his staff. If he drafts like he's been working the free agents then I think he can go back to the cookie jar as many times as he wants.

Hervoyel
04-06-2006, 09:18 PM
too late already, gone are the 1st picks of the 5th & 7th rds. :rolleyes:

I'm more than satisfied with the return he got for those picks. I think he did a hell of a job.

YoungTexanFan
04-06-2006, 09:38 PM
I'm more than satisfied with the return he got for those picks. I think he did a hell of a job.

No joke Herv.

beerlover
04-06-2006, 10:12 PM
I'm more than satisfied with the return he got for those picks. I think he did a hell of a job.

you also have to consider the cap hit & financial commitment, the reason both where available in the 1st place. the Texans paid a premium, thats a fact, also the draft picks would be making squat in comparison :twocents:

el toro
04-06-2006, 10:20 PM
you also have to consider the cap hit & financial commitment, the reason both where available in the 1st place. the Texans paid a premium, thats a fact, also the draft picks would be making squat in comparison :twocents:


...and they'd be contributing squat too.

Dunta_23
04-06-2006, 10:26 PM
...and they'd be contributing squat too.

Bingo..instead of taking chances, our FO invested more into more proven players

beerlover
04-06-2006, 10:34 PM
...and they'd be contributing squat too.

and next year in free agency you can't do squat because you spent all the money this year :cool:

Seņor Stan
04-06-2006, 10:41 PM
and next year in free agency you can't do squat because you spent all the money this year :cool:

and next year your draft will suck because your team will start winning.

texman8
04-06-2006, 10:46 PM
and next year in free agency you can't do squat because you spent all the money this year :cool:

It's too early to speculate about next year.....Wade and Weigert probably will be gone. Depending on P-Buc's play, who knows if Texans will resign him. Will DD be traded?....I think AJ will be due a new deal. We probably won't be as agressive as this year...we won't have as many holes to fill.

The biggest question: Will Casserly be gone and who will be the new GM?

beerlover
04-06-2006, 11:03 PM
all I'm saying at some point at the current spending rate the Texans could wind up in cap hell and actually lose players it wanted to keep. Between Weaver, Moulds & Carr they spent a huge chunk of the teams cap money (someone who knows the specfics could add up the correct amount, I'm not even going to take a guess :confused: ) & thats before the draft, some think Reggie Bush is gonna ask for 50 million & you still have the 2nd and two 3rds.

if Casserly was such a genius then why could'nt he shed payroll with current players on the roster instead of just cutting them free? I have not seen the Texans make a significant trade exchanging players in a long time, though maybe I'm forgetting someone. its not always talent or contributions to the team its cap relief that dictates a buisness runs in the red.[/FONT]

seems to me we could have killed two birds with one stone by trading Carr then drafting Young or not signing Weaver and drafting Mario Williams instead of adding to the budget with compromises :rolleyes:

Texans86
04-07-2006, 12:56 AM
We were able to take the hit on some larger cap people this year when they released Walker, Bradford and one more vet. that I can't think if the name. Since we cut them this year, they won't affect next years cap, so we have additional dead cap space this year, but it won't hurt as much next year. If the current people in charge of money believe we can take these hits and still sign players, then I believe them. This year they have not been overpaying as much as in the past, so we should be better off if we have to cut players in the future. We were greatly under the cap this year, and signed a few players. We obviously needed help at many positions, and people are criticizing the FO for trying to fill some of them. It's strange that people want to win, and yet don't want to spend money to do so.

texman8
04-07-2006, 01:12 AM
all I'm saying at some point at the current spending rate the Texans could wind up in cap hell and actually lose players it wanted to keep. Between Weaver, Moulds & Carr they spent a huge chunk of the teams cap money (someone who knows the specfics could add up the correct amount, I'm not even going to take a guess :confused: ) & thats before the draft, some think Reggie Bush is gonna ask for 50 million & you still have the 2nd and two 3rds.

if Casserly was such a genius then why could'nt he shed payroll with current players on the roster instead of just cutting them free? I have not seen the Texans make a significant trade exchanging players in a long time, though maybe I'm forgetting someone. its not always talent or contributions to the team its cap relief that dictates a buisness runs in the red.[/FONT]

seems to me we could have killed two birds with one stone by trading Carr then drafting Young or not signing Weaver and drafting Mario Williams instead of adding to the budget with compromises :rolleyes:


I can see where you disagree with Texans' approach in this off season. It seems you have to disagree with their decision to reup with Carr. The only way to trade Carr was to franchise him ($10 mill avg.). This would have force the Texans to take a big cap hit and besides Texans wouldn't have gotten much in return in a high draft choice. Look at Ramsey or Harrington ( most likely Lions will have to release him and get nothing)...Or Texans could have released Carr and then draft Young which would make some people happy. Say we do trade Carr, we wouldn't have the cap room to sign all the FA such as Weaver,Moulds,Putzier,Flanagan. If Texans draft Young, there would be no way to get Williams.

The trading of players straight up for players don't happen that often in NFL. Normally,trades happen mainly for acquiring draft choices. Gandy for Scott and draft choice, Besides, teams would be only interested in our star players in a trade situation.....Texans can't afford to do that since they have very little depth on their roster.

texman8
04-07-2006, 01:20 AM
I haven't agree with CC's decisions on certain signings(ex. Wade,Greenwood,or P-Buc trade). No team is 100% on their FA signings or draft picks. Texans do a good job in keeping within the cap restraints. ..unlike the Redskins or Titans. Look at Titans,they only have $400,000+ in cap room. Most likely, they will have to cut McNair... just to have cap space for their rookie pool.

phan1
04-07-2006, 02:42 AM
Yeah, I'm concerned with the cap situation as well, and while I don't know much about NFL number crunching, I do know is that I definitely don't want to be in the situation that the 49er, Jets, and Titans, who all seem doomed to 3-4 years of crapiness. We've been spending a whole bunch this off season while still having some very overpaid players on our roster already.

I just want to believe that the front office is being intelligent about our cap situation. And to be honest, I have my reservations concerning the Moulds deal. It seems everyone says it was a good deal for us, but I'm not sure. There is no team in the NFL that would have given Moulds as much money as we did, and I don't like losing a 5th rounder. Especially when we look like we're overstocked with WRs. Hopefully I'll eat my words by underestimating how good of a player Moulds is (he hasn't been to may pro-bowls).

Huge1
04-07-2006, 03:23 AM
Thanks for the info 1-3. I stated this exact sentiment (45 players with first round grades) a few weeks back and had some tool argue (without factual evidence) that I didn't know what I was talking about.

beerlover
04-07-2006, 04:26 AM
why should you or me care about how much the Texans spend in the offseason? ticket prices, consessions, BEER J/K.

David Carr, signed thru 2008 base $5,250,000 bonus $2,006,720 06 cap hit $7,256,720

Eric Moulds, signed thru 2009 base $3,500,000 bonus $800,000 06 cap hit $4,300,000 (rough est.)

Anthony Weaver, signed thru 2010 base $1,000,000 bonus $2,406,720 cap hit $3,406,720

Mike Flanagan, signed thru 2008 base $750,000 bonus $1,006,720 cap hit $1,756,720

Steve McKinney, signed thru 2009 base $1,006,000 bonus $606,720 cap hit $1,612,720

Sage Rosenfels, signed thru 2009 base $600,000 bonus $506,720 cap hit $1,106,720

Sam Cowart, signed thru 2007 base $710,000 bonus $361,720 cap hit $1,071,720

Jeb Putzier, signed thru 2009 base $585,000 bonus $469,220 cap hit $1,054,220

Kevin Walter, signed thru 2009 base $500,000 bonus $506,720 cap hit $1,006,720

Jameel Cook, signed thru 2010 base $585,000 bonus $246,720 cap hit $831,720

thats over 20 million spent,the value of 5th/6th/7th rd picks is now obvious or at least it should be, just to name a couple-

Drew Hodgdon, signed thru 2007 base $350,000 bonus $48,687 cap hit $398,687
C.C. Brown, signed thru 2007 base $350,000 bonus $31,820 cap hit $381,820

now back to the original thread before y'all questioned the value of late round draft picks, this draft is deep and I'm confident even http://images.usatoday.com/community/_photos/casserly.jpg could still draft a future NFL player in the top of the 7th. the point is these guys have value beyond the obvious (production, box score) they enable the zen cap master to fit under the salary cap, provide depth and if lucky a future star of the Houston Texans.

TheOgre
04-07-2006, 10:00 AM
I'm more than satisfied with the return he got for those picks. I think he did a hell of a job.

Totally agree. The alternative is to spend our 2nd on another potential Jabar Gaffney rather than a 5th on a proven veteran like Moulds. Spending a 7th (and of course a lot more money) on Walters is worth it IMO.

TheOgre
04-07-2006, 10:11 AM
and next year in free agency you can't do squat because you spent all the money this year :cool:

That is fine with me. This team plugged its blaring weaknesses and now needs to concentrate on drafting well. The long-term solution for this team is going to be our 1st-4th round selections. We have 7 between this year and next, and we need to find at least five long-term contributors from that batch.

Wiegert, Wade, McKinney, and Flanagan are not our long-term solutions up front. Payne, Cowart, and Wong are in the same boat. In fact, Payne and/or Wade might be gone before the start of the 2007 season. Moulds and Weaver were necessary, but we cannot continue to spend big money on FA's. What do you see us needing in FA in 2007?