View Full Version : To Draft Bush Or Trade Down?

02-11-2006, 02:33 AM
To Draft Bush or Trade?

I saw this on a mockdraft site and found it interesting.

Jack Reed -- A look at the Houston Texans 2006 NFL Draft: To Draft Bush or Trade? That is the Question!
The Houston Texans are a team with a new outlook on their future; Dan Reeves has signed on to mold the franchise into a competitive team, Gary Kubiak, QB genius, has stepped into the head coaching position and, with Dan Reeves' endorsement, will commit to the arm of David Carr, they hold the number one pick in the draft with possibly the best college running back of all-time waiting for them, and several offensive coordinators are watering at the mouth to get their hands on Reggie Bush. It is possible the Texans have decided to draft Bush and disregard the many frivolous trade offers they receive in the coming months. But what if they only want to give that impression, instead opting to go the same route the great dynasties have gone and stockpile draft picks? The next question is, what team will risk their 2006 draft class for "the president"? This will be determined by process of elimination.
Teams that won't be looking for a RB this high in the draft: AFC- Bengals, Bills, Browns, Chargers, Chiefs, Dolphins, Jaguars, Raiders, Ravens, Steelers, Titans. NFC- Bears, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Lions, Panthers, Rams, Redskins, Saints, Seahawks.
The list has now been narrowed to 9 teams. The Colts will lose Edge to free agency, but won't pay a high price for his replacement. Peyton will carry that team with his arm for years to come. 8 teams. The 49ers would love to pair QB Alex Smith with his high school teammate, but they have a lot of needs to address. 7 teams. Vick and Bush would make a dynamic duo in Atlanta, but the Falcons can improve enough to contend for the Super Bowl in the NFC without making this trade. 6 teams. The Vikings will look to add a RB in the draft as this draft has some quality RB's, but not at the price tag of a #1 overall. 5 teams. These 5 teams are the Jets, Packers, Cardinals, Patriots, and Broncos.
Two years ago the Giants gave up their 2004 1st round, #4 overall, 5th round, and 2005 1st round for the rights to Eli Manning, the 1st pick in the 2004 draft. Using that as our barometer, we will substitute the 2005 1st round pick with 2nd and 3rd round picks in the current draft. Therefore, the Texans will be giving up their 1st overall for a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th, in 2006.
The Jets or Packers. With the 4th and 5th picks in the 2006 NFL draft, respectively, will be analyzed in a similar manner due to their back-to-back selections.
Trade Model:
Texans get (Jets or Packers): 1st (4 or 5), 2nd (36 or 37), 3rd (68 or 69), and 5th (132 or 133) round picks.
Jets/Packers get: 1st overall, Reggie Bush
Possible Texans Draft w/ trade to NY Jets or Green Bay Packers (bold indicates draft picks acquired in trade)
1st rd, 4th overall - D'Brickshaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia or 5th overall, AJ Hawk, LB, Ohio State
2nd rd, 33rd overall - Marcus McNeilll, OT, Auburn
2nd rd, 36th overall - Bobby Carpenter, LB, Ohio State
3rd rd, 65th overall - Brian Calhoun, RB, Wisconsin
3rd rd, 66th overall - Dominique Byrd, TE, USC
3rd rd, 68th overall - Maurice Stovall, WR, Notre Dame
4th rd, 97th overall - Stanley McClover, DE, Auburn
5th rd, 129th overall - Devin Hester, CB, Miami
5th rd, 132nd overall- Michael Robinson, WR, Penn State
Basically, it boils down to the Texans receiving 4 players in exchange for Bush. The player they draft in the 1st round will be an impact player from day one. In this scenario, the Texans greatly improve their offensive line with tackles D'Brickshaw Ferguson and Marcus McNeilll. They address a need on the defensive side of the ball with LB Bobby Carpenter (possibly paired with former Buckeye Hawk if a trade goes through with the Packers) and then add weapons for David Carr on offense with RB Brian Calhoun, TE Dominique Byrd, and WR Maurice Stovall. With the combination of 4th and 5th round picks, the Texans could replace Bush's special teams value with KR/PR/CB Devin Hester, to compliment Jerome Mathis, and add an explosive playmaker to the offense with WR Michael Robinson. This draft could solidify the Texans offense and plug some holes on a young defense.
The Arizona Cardinals are in need of a play-making RB to compliment their exceptional receiving corps. A Texans trade with the Cardinals will give them the same flexibility to improve starters, but their 1st round pick (10th overall) isn't as attractive as a 4th or 5th overall. At #10, the Texans could start with offensive and draft TE Vernon Davis or OT Winston Justice. Adding Marcus McNeill at 33rd overall and a Bobby Carpenter or DE Manny Lawson at 42nd overall would improve both sides of the ball. The Texans would have 3 picks in the 3rd round and continue to fill holes through the deep draft talent in this year's draft. They could go with their 3rd offensive lineman of the draft and versatile RB Brian Calhoun. With the 74th overall pick they acquire from Arizona, they could add a big target in WR Maurice Stovall or go defensive and draft LB Kai Parham from Virginia. Once again, Hester and/or Robinson late would help fill the role Bush would play for Houston.
The Patriots and Broncos will be teams to watch on draft day. The Patriots stockpiled picks from last years draft and could look to unload them for a premier RB in Bush. Brady & Bush could surpass Manning & Co. as the NFL's most explosive offense. The Patriots, with 2 3rd, 4th, and 5th, round picks could unload many picks on the Texans in the middle rounds and put together an attractive package for Houston. Chances are they will hang on to their picks and draft a RB in the 2nd-4th round range. Denver is a RB factory, with two first round picks, and making only two off-season additions, Terrell Owens and Reggie Bush, to a championship caliber team could push them past the rest of the AFC. In either case, the Texans would pick first around 21st or 22nd and add the best available talent, probably WR Sinorice Moss, CB Tye Hill, or DE Mathais Kiwanuka. If they traded with Denver they could add another 1st rounder with OT Marcus McNeill, LB D'Qwell Jackson, or WR Chad Jackson. The Texans would draft similar to the other models in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, and build a young nucleus.
Let's recap. Bush for D'Brickshaw, Carpenter, Stovall, and Robinson in the first scenario, as well as the Texans 2nd rd, 2 3rd rd, and 4th rd picks to address various team needs.
Gary Kubiak steps into an exciting position. Holding the rights to the #1 overall pick, the Texans can go down one of two paths. Option #1, they get a weapon so rare he is being compared to NFL Hall of Famers before he has stepped onto a professional field. Option #2, they learn from past mistakes (passing on the top OT in the 2005 Draft in Jamaal Brown) and collect draft picks to fill the many holes keeping them from being a contender.
David Carr has been hit more times in his first 4 seasons than Rocky Balboa in his epic battle vs. Ivan Drago and the Texans have annually picked in the top of the draft. Attracting free agents is difficult for a team that has shown such little progress since its inception. For elite free agents, the Houston franchise is simply not an option.
That leaves us with the NFL Draft as a tool for building a franchise. The Steelers did it. The 49ers did it. The Cowboys did it. The Patriots did it. Will the Texans do what is right for their football team or marketing department on April 29 is the question we will all have to wait to see answered. If the Texans stay put and make Bush the 1st overall, pay attention to the trades they turned down or could have pulled off. Chart the players drafted on, or after, the potential picks and play GM of the Texans. My money is on your team looking better after the draft than Dan Reeves and Gary Kubiaks'.

02-11-2006, 03:53 AM
I would be surprised if the Texans get enough for the 1st pick to trade down. The list compiled shows its a short one, they might show more favortism towards Denver as sort of a backdoor compensation for Kubes, but I tried myself in a Mock on this board to trade with the Texans for the 1st pick (as Bronco GM) and he was unwilling to consider two firsts, a 2nd & 3rd as enough compensation, but I did think of it on my own and feel he would be a great fit for that organization and maybe have a similar impact as Elway did. Someone like Reggie with his speed at altitude would simply be unstoppable.

Realisticly then I see the Texans keeping the pick, at least until further notice.

02-11-2006, 11:11 AM
I think the Texans would look more for adding an additional #1 pick next year instead of every pick this season. If a team were to offer their #1 this season plus a 3rd round pick and then their #1 and #2 or #3 next season that would be better than getting 4 picks this year. It gives them flexibility to add needs or depth next season similar to what the Chargers did with the Giants. With the Giants 2005 #1 the Chargers got Shawn Merriman. With the 2 #1s next season they would be in position to trade up for a specific person or grab the best 2 on the board. If the Texans trade with the Packers or Jets none of the 3 teams will be better than 8-8 range next season which means at worst the Texans would have 2 of the first 16 picks (rough estimate). That would be attractive if they wanted to trade up to grab Joe Thomas from Wisconsin. Imagine adding D'Brick this season and Thomas next. That's a great pair of bookends. Or they could grab Paul Pusluszny from Penn State and one of the top CBs. Bush would be amazing. Adding multiple playmakers on defense or great linemen on offense would be amazing. It's a win-win.

02-11-2006, 11:52 AM
This is interesting and pretty well-thought-out on the par of the original author, although I don't like some of the picks he made for us.

Drafting Ferguson and McNeill doesn't make much sense. McNeill will be a career RT, but we have Pitts that should stay at OT so we would only need to get Ferguson or Eric Winston, then get interior OLinemen after that. I don't know why we would get Calhoun, if we're going to get a RB we need a fast guy like Bush or a power RB. Stovall and Byrd in the 3rd would be nice additions, although Stovall likely will be gone by then. I would also pick up a DE before a LB.

If we made that trade (I would get a future 1st rather than so many picks this year), here are the guys I'd be looking at:

1st rd, 4th/5th overall - Mario Williams, DE, N.C. State
2nd rd, 33rd overall - Eric Winston, OT, Miami
2nd rd, 36th/37th overall - Nick Mangold, OG/C, Ohio State
3rd rd, 65th overall - DeMario Minter, CB, Georgia, or best CB available (maybe Jonathan Joseph)
3rd rd, 66th overall - Maurice Stovall if available, WR, Notre Dame otherwise Rocky McIntosh, LB, Miami
3rd rd, 68th/69th overall - Dominique Byrd, TE, USC or T.J. Williams, TE, N.C. State
4th rd, 97th overall - Rocky McIntosh, LB, Miami, or Danieal Manning, CB/FS, Abilene Christian depending on #68/69.
5th rd, 129th overall - Mark Setterstrom, OG, Minnesota
5th rd, 132nd/133rd overall - Reggie McNeal, QB/WR, Texas A&M

I also agree that I would prefer to get a 2nd/3rd this year and a 1st and 3rd/2nd next year in exchange for trading down, but if we move down with the Patriots or Broncos we would need more in exchange. I don't think the Broncos would trade, I doubt they trade that much to move up and get Bush when they already have Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell, and as they said the Broncos are a RB factory and don't need a top end RB. I could maybe see the Patriots since they do have all those extra picks and they could use a younger RB even though Dillon is still good when healthy, but I wouldn't want to trade that far down in the draft, I would at least want to stay in the top 5-6 so we can still get a stud player up there.

02-11-2006, 12:14 PM
Broncos get Bush

Texans get
#22 Winston Justice, RT
#29 Leonard Pope, TE
#33 Manny Lawson, DE (Texans keep own pick)
#61 Nick Mangold, C
#65 Darnell Bing, SS (Texans keep own pick)
#66 Brian Calhoun, RB (Texans keep own pick)
#93 Mark Setterstrom, OG

02-11-2006, 01:37 PM
If we decided to trade the #1,I would go for the Jets,see if we could get Maewae(c) #4,#36,&maybe a 2nd rd.next year if possible.If we could pull that off,I would take D'Brick at #4,Trade Babin #36,#66 to GB for #5 and take Mario Williams.It's a stretch but would be nice.

02-11-2006, 01:52 PM
heres what would make most sense.. the jets want bush. He attended a game last season and really liked it. We trade down to the jets at 4 and hopefully get a hershal walker type deal though i doubt it. so heres basically what i'm saying

texans get number 4 and 36 and next years 2nd round

jets get #1 and a late,late pick maybe in the 6th or 7th round

04-01-2006, 11:07 PM
We should trade down, pick up Mario in the first round, and grab OT McNeil in the second round. We have already worked on the Offense, so i believe it would be too much to put another C/OG on the rosters. We should grab up some other Defensive players after, since our O-Line will be pretty much at its best for what we had to work with. No WR in the top 3 rounds, i beg!

04-01-2006, 11:41 PM
Who did I offend to give me a demerit for my last post? Just stating my opinions is all. That was cruel.


The Dude Abides
04-01-2006, 11:47 PM
Who did I offend to give me a demerit for my last post? Just stating my opinions is all. That was cruel.


I gave you points to balance it out.

04-02-2006, 12:16 AM
I gave you points to balance it out.


Mighty kind of ya!

Did your name come from the book "The Earth Abides"? I want to read it.

And to make this post on topic... RB or trade down!

The Dude Abides
04-02-2006, 11:00 AM

Mighty kind of ya!

Did your name come from the book "The Earth Abides"? I want to read it.

And to make this post on topic... RB or trade down!

Since we filled the majority of our "needs" I think we should draft Bush.

My name is from the movie, "The Big Lebowski." It's a classic.