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View Full Version : If the Texans trade the 1st pick....


4Texans
01-29-2006, 11:21 AM
which team do you think is the most interested in getting the top pick at this point, and who are they after?

sprtsfanatic
01-29-2006, 11:27 AM
regardless of which team I dont think we trade down past the #4 spot. So that leaves the Titans and Jets as the most probable, but not sure we want to trade our pick to the titans being a division rival....if it comes down to the jets...then I think they go with a QB...not sure if they would take VY or ML. Leaving us either D'brick or Hawk at the 4 spot...if they trade any lower the city will erupt.

houstonhurricane
01-29-2006, 11:32 AM
You both raise interesting points/topics. The problem is that we wouldn't trade down past four and the Saints/Titans would most likely have qb needs over Bush (unlike us). Therefore, it leaves the Jets who have so many needs (and a rookie coach) that they may not be willing to give us value for the overall number one pick. Thus, at that point we would be looking at the Raiders, etc. and I think that is too far down the line for us to make a move. Thus, I think it is either Bush or D'Brick (if the Jets offer enough). Don't see it happening, though.

run-david-run
01-29-2006, 11:36 AM
This leaves the question... can we take D'Brick at number 1?

Texian
01-29-2006, 11:39 AM
Any team in the need of a Franchise quarterback, New Orleans, Tennessee, Oakland, Baltimore, Miami, Detroit, Arizona

sprtsfanatic
01-29-2006, 11:40 AM
and the answer is NO...there is now way you can give 1st pick money to a lineman. It would HAVE to be a "SKILL POSITION" player ie. QB, RB, WR.

Big B Texan Fan
01-29-2006, 11:40 AM
Titans for the re-untiting of Chow and Leinert. If they think we're taking Bush and tha Saints are taking Leinert, then they may pony up a deal the week of the draft.

We move down to third, collect some pix, maybe Vanden Bosch too and still get VY.

That way we have the VY Camp happy and the Trade Crew somewhat satisfied. The Bush League will change their names to Petersons Pals and get themselves geared up for next years campaign.

sprtsfanatic
01-29-2006, 11:41 AM
thats a funny post, but dont think its likely. Weirder things have happened though...

Corrosion
01-29-2006, 11:44 AM
regardless of which team I dont think we trade down past the #4 spot. So that leaves the Titans and Jets as the most probable, but not sure we want to trade our pick to the titans being a division rival....


The Jets are the most likely trade partner I think , Mainly because they are interested in both Lienart and Bush and moving up to #1 they would have options .... On the Texans side they would not have to pay the approximate $9million per that the #1 pick is going to want and still have their chouce of the best OT, LB , CB and DE in the draft .

As for trading down w/ the Titan's I wouldnt mind mainly because they would take on a huge contract for one and would also be giving up multiple picks for one player ....The Titans have multiple holes to fill and giving up multiple picks for the #1 would make it more difficult for them to do so .... I would take no less than the #3 overall this years #2 and next years #1 giving the Texans the 3rd overall , 33 , 35 , 66 , 67(from NO) for first day picks and two #1's next season . Five picks in the top 67 could go a long way in filling some of their many holes.

sangien
01-29-2006, 11:46 AM
The smart choice is Brick, though not popular. Great skill talent but the rubber meets the road in the trebches.

sprtsfanatic
01-29-2006, 11:48 AM
The Jets are the most likely trade partner I think , Mainly because they are interested in both Lienart and Bush and moving up to #1 they would have options .... On the Texans side they would not have to pay the approximate $9million per that the #1 pick is going to want and still have their chouce of the best OT, LB , CB and DE in the draft .

As for trading down w/ the Titan's I wouldnt mind mainly because they would take on a huge contract for one and would also be giving up multiple picks for one player ....The Titans have multiple holes to fill and giving up multiple picks for the #1 would make it more difficult for them to do so .... I would take no less than the #3 overall this years #2 and next years #1 giving the Texans the 3rd overall , 33 , 35 , 66 , 67(from NO) for first day picks and two #1's next season . Five picks in the top 67 could go a long way in filling some of their many holes.

I like your scenario but according to their needs who would they take and what would we be left to pick from?

ArlingtonTexan
01-29-2006, 12:03 PM
I don't know what the managements of any of these team think, but reading the posts of fans from other boards, none of them want to move-up, especially at the cost of a couple of number 1s and at least one or two 1st day picks.

Remember the Saints, Jets, Packers and Raiders will all be under new administrations who will turning over the roster wanting to get a good amount their guys. The Titans have had depth issues for at least two years running. Trading 4 or 5 picks is probably not what any of these guys want to do. The hope for the Texans is that someone falls in irrational love with Bush, Leinert or Young. Logically, none of these guys should trade up.

Corrosion
01-29-2006, 12:12 PM
I like your scenario but according to their needs who would they take and what would we be left to pick from?


I see Bush , Lienart and Young going 1,2 and 3 in no specific order .

The Titans are in need of a RB and McNair's eventual replacement ... they could also use some O-line help . Not real sure who they would take w/ the #1 pick Bush ? Young ? Lienart ? and the remote posibility of D-Brick ?

The S'aints need a QB ...Aaron Brooks is done there .... He's a turnover waiting to happen and nothing better than a back up . They will take Lienart or Young . Probably Lienart because they will look for a more traditional QB to replace Brooks .

As for a trade w/ the Jets .. Same as above , the top 3 dont change . Bush Lienart and Young go 1, 2 , 3 leaving the rest to pick from .

I really think the #3 pick has a lot of value in this draft mainly because you can pencil in Lienart to NO .... leaving either Bush or Young at 3 , Both have #1 potential and would cost a lot less here .

Logiacally, none of these guys should trade up.

I completely agree

Hottoddie
01-29-2006, 01:06 PM
The more I read & the longer it takes to hear a definitive choice from the Texans, the more I believe that we will trade down from the #1 pick. In the end, D'Brick will be our target.

After all, it makes all the sense in the world. McNair has voiced his total support for Carr & has been commenting on the need to better protect his Franchise QB for the last couple of years. Since most scouts, & talent evaluators, consider D'Brick to be one of the very rare LT's that only come around once every 10+ years, he has to be the target.

Kubiak knows the importance of a strong OL & that's further emphasized by the Texan's attempt at wooing Sherman to come in & coach the OL. To further the argument that we'll trade down, Kubiak has made several comments that could indicate he's for that, as opposed to taking one of the glamour picks.

As for not being able to get fair market value for the #1 overall pick, if you've got a player that you really want, & you know that he'll be there after the 3rd pick, wouldn't taking any deal in the 11th hour that nets you extra compensation & still allows you to get the player you want be a good move? In other words, if the best deal you could get was the Jets #4 pick & a mid-round pick, would you turn it down? It still gives you an extra pick, while reducing the salary you have to pay to your #1 pick.

By the way, for the record, I do believe we'll get some nice compensation for the #1 pick. It just, might not agree with the value chart that keeps floating around.

houstonhurricane
01-29-2006, 01:31 PM
The farthest down we go is with the Jets and I don't think they are going to be willing to give up what we would need to grab our pick. If they think Pennington can make it back, they may go with Brick themselves. The problem is we will not trade down past the fourth pick - it is either Bush or Brick....

ArlingtonTexan
01-29-2006, 01:57 PM
As for not being able to get fair market value for the #1 overall pick, if you've got a player that you really want, & you know that he'll be there after the 3rd pick, wouldn't taking any deal in the 11th hour that nets you extra compensation & still allows you to get the player you want be a good move? In other words, if the best deal you could get was the Jets #4 pick & a mid-round pick, would you turn it down? It still gives you an extra pick, while reducing the salary you have to pay to your #1 pick.

By the way, for the record, I do believe we'll get some nice compensation for the #1 pick. It just, might not agree with the value chart that keeps floating around.

Bolded section 1- You absolutely do not trade down for less than market value. The Texans should not take less than the Giants gave to San diego under any circumstances. What happens when some team sees the Texans drop and that team jumps in front of Houston and drafts Ferguson? Say bush, Young , Ferguson go 1-2-3. Ya think that would go over well.

Bold 2-If anything the trade should exceed the price of the value chart. By setting a high price for trading up, a team lowers the chance that someone else will trade up, and jump in front of them if they trade down. The team at the top of the draft controls the draft. Don't give up that control easily.

bigTEXan8
01-29-2006, 02:26 PM
I said this in another thread, but I still got this small belief that Oakland would be willing to trade their first round pick and a 2nd rounder next year for our first overrall pick. I totally believe they want Leinart.

Sorry 'bout that...barin fart.

Napa Auto Parts
01-29-2006, 02:30 PM
I Doubt We could trade with either Saints Or Titans they know we arent taking a QB wich is why it was so Stupid to announce that we are sticking with David Carr why in there right mind would they move up both of those Clubs would be happy with either Young Or Lion Heart so we are kind of screwed unless we start acting like we are not sure anymore on our QB situtation.:twocents: so those clubs will get who they want or someone they will be happy with with out paying 1st overall money for him.

nunusguy
01-29-2006, 02:50 PM
The farthest down we go is with the Jets and I don't think they are going to be willing to give up what we would need to grab our pick.
If we were to trade with the Jets (who are picking 4th), the bare minimum we
should receive for our #1 overall is all 3 of their first day picks.
But I see no need to stay within the top 5, actually not even the top 10. This
is a good Draft for OTs, with maybe half a dozen valued at or near first round
picks. If we were to trade farther down (say mid first round), to somebody who has "got to have Reggie", we should be able to get all of their 2006 picks
plus some of their first day picks in '07.

ensign_lee
01-29-2006, 03:17 PM
If we were to trade with the Jets (who are picking 4th), the bare minimum we
should receive for our #1 overall is all 3 of their first day picks.
But I see no need to stay within the top 5, actually not even the top 10. This
is a good Draft for OTs, with maybe half a dozen valued at or near first round
picks. If we were to trade farther down (say mid first round), to somebody who has "got to have Reggie", we should be able to get all of their 2006 picks
plus some of their first day picks in '07.


Are you kidding? NOBODY will trade away "all of their 2006 picks" for one pick. Moreover, I seriously doubt that anybody will even give us their 1st, second, and third rounders THIS year.

What's probably more reasonable is to swap first round picks, get their first pick in 2007 and either A) their second pick in 2007 or B) their third or fourth pick this year.

Nobody in their right mind, save Matt Millen will give up their entire draft for ONE unproven player, so say that we should accept nothing less than ALL of somebody's first day picks is not realistic.

Wolf
01-29-2006, 03:46 PM
this from chargers website.
1. Trade to New York Jets for Jets 4th overall pick, 2007 1st round pick, and 2006 3rd round pick.

2. With 4th Overall Draft D'Brickishaw Ferguson - OT

http://forums.chargers.com/showthread.php?t=28362

seemed pretty reasonable to me .. I doubt the Jets would go for it.

Xman
01-29-2006, 03:49 PM
Are you kidding? NOBODY will trade away "all of their 2006 picks" for one pick. Moreover, I seriously doubt that anybody will even give us their 1st, second, and third rounders THIS year.

What's probably more reasonable is to swap first round picks, get their first pick in 2007 and either A) their second pick in 2007 or B) their third or fourth pick this year.

Nobody in their right mind, save Matt Millen will give up their entire draft for ONE unproven player, so say that we should accept nothing less than ALL of somebody's first day picks is not realistic.

Its been a while, but about 8 or 10 years ago SanFran offered up all their picks for the #1 pick (I can't even remember who it was). But, the offer was rejected because it wasn't enough.

I agree on several things:
1) NO, Tenn and NYJ can sit still and fill holes with stud players - so they shouldn't be willing to give up much to trade.
2) We shouldn't trade for less than market value.
3) That means we take Bush(or VY is Carr's current eval changes); or we trade down lower.

If we trade down, and No/Tenn/NYJ won't deal. Who will?
GBay - Getting Bush might lure Favre back for one more year.
SFran - Pairing Bush with High School teammate ASmith would be a marketing dream,
Oak - Al Davis likes speed and needs a QB - I think he is the most likely to pay to move up.
Det/AZ would also pay to move up to get a QB.

BUT, when you drop below 4, the price one of those teams would have to pay in draft picks would be exorbitant, so players will have to be included. Detroit (Roy Williams), AZ (LDavis/BJohnson), etc.

Mr. White
01-29-2006, 03:55 PM
IMO, I don't think we'll ever see a team ever offer up their entire draft again for a #1. To my knowledge, it has only happened once and it didn't turn out too well for the Saints.

nunusguy
01-29-2006, 04:07 PM
Are you kidding? NOBODY will trade away "all of their 2006 picks" for one pick. Moreover, I seriously doubt that anybody will even give us their 1st, second, and third rounders THIS year.

Hey man, I don't make the numbers up, other people who do that for a living. Just take a look at the link I've included that's got one persons chart that includes a numeric value for each pick and do the math for a hypothetical trade, its simple. Its in the ball park with other charts you could find out there.
http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/pick_value_chart.htm

4Texans
01-29-2006, 05:07 PM
Are you kidding? NOBODY will trade away "all of their 2006 picks" for one pick. Moreover, I seriously doubt that anybody will even give us their 1st, second, and third rounders THIS year.

What's probably more reasonable is to swap first round picks, get their first pick in 2007 and either A) their second pick in 2007 or B) their third or fourth pick this year.

Nobody in their right mind, save Matt Millen will give up their entire draft for ONE unproven player, so say that we should accept nothing less than ALL of somebody's first day picks is not realistic.

Does anyone remeber what the Saints gave up to get the Redskins 1st round pick and Ricky Williams? I know it was a lot. And remember Casserly was the GM that got that out of the Saints. Food for thought........

Samer
01-29-2006, 05:26 PM
I think we should trade with Green Bay for the 5th pick, Donald Driver and another pick or 2. If Ferguson is not available at the 5th pick then go after A.J. Hawk and use the FA to get a couple of Oline. I think Ferguson is awesome and will do good but I also think that the FA is better suited for the OLine

Texans_Chick
01-29-2006, 08:32 PM
Does anyone remeber what the Saints gave up to get the Redskins 1st round pick and Ricky Williams? I know it was a lot. And remember Casserly was the GM that got that out of the Saints. Food for thought........


Vinny posted an article a while back about the Ditka Ricky Williams trade that basically made the argument that Casserly didn't do that great with that deal.

Can't find the article, but here's another older one in the same vein. It is somewhat funny given what happened to Ricky Williams since the article, but it still has some interesting points in it about salary cap stuff:

Link: Hindsight view of the Ricky Williams Trade (http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1208/is_47_225/ai_80680563)

I don't want a sack of used shoes out of a trade down.

TexansNeedRBin05
01-29-2006, 10:38 PM
Take Bush Trade DD for Lenoard Davis.

awtysst
01-29-2006, 10:57 PM
and the answer is NO...there is now way you can give 1st pick money to a lineman. It would HAVE to be a "SKILL POSITION" player ie. QB, RB, WR.

I'd go farther. You cant give 1st pick money to a WR. they do not get the ball enough to justify it. Only a Qb(who gets the ball every play) or a RB who will run the ball 20X a game desarves that kind of money.

And before anyone starts about the center handing the ball to the Qb, please dont, thats not the same thing and you know it.

Nighthawk
01-29-2006, 11:57 PM
Hey man, I don't make the numbers up, other people who do that for a living. Just take a look at the link I've included that's got one persons chart that includes a numeric value for each pick and do the math for a hypothetical trade, its simple. Its in the ball park with other charts you could find out there.
http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/pick_value_chart.htm

Just so I'm sure I'm reading this right, in a hypothetical trade with the Jets, we should get their 1st round (1800 points), their 2nd (540 points), their 4th (100 points) and their 2nd in 2007 (540 points) totalling 2980 points?

Does it really work out that cleanly most of the time?

Corrosion
01-31-2006, 09:25 AM
I dont want the 1st , 2nd , 4th and next years second .... Give me this years 1+2 and next years #1 or ill keep my pick . Quality over Quantity .:twocents:

cadahnic
01-31-2006, 09:44 AM
In order to make the trade reasonable it will have to look like Jets trade 2006 1st, 2nd, 4th and 2007 1st, and 3rd Texans trade 2006 1st an5th and swap a pick maybe in the third or add a next year's 5th also.

MorKnolle
01-31-2006, 11:27 AM
You both raise interesting points/topics. The problem is that we wouldn't trade down past four and the Saints/Titans would most likely have qb needs over Bush (unlike us). Therefore, it leaves the Jets who have so many needs (and a rookie coach) that they may not be willing to give us value for the overall number one pick. Thus, at that point we would be looking at the Raiders, etc. and I think that is too far down the line for us to make a move. Thus, I think it is either Bush or D'Brick (if the Jets offer enough). Don't see it happening, though.

Agreed. I don't see the Titans trading up, as they can get Leinart or Vince at #3, but if for some reason they want to trade up and give us a real nice deal and we can steal some picks from them and return the favor for the Babin deal then I'm all for it, and we could likely still get Bush there. I'm not sure the Jets will trade up, they may need a QB or they could be looking at Bush to replace Curtis Martin, but at the same time they can stay at #4 and either get Cutler there or Omar Jacobs in the 2nd round as competition/replacement for Pennington, or they could get DeAngelo Williams or LenDale White as a replacement for Martin, or they could grab D'Brick and help their OLine, so I'm not sure they trade up (I've checked their message boards and the predominant idea there is to either grab D'Brick or try to trade down). However, they are going to be way over the cap and have to get rid of some guys, so in one sense they would have a harder time affording the #1 pick's contract, but at the same time they could trade off some guys (John Abraham and maybe more) to clear cap room and at least get something in return for it if they really like Bush. If we can get a trade from them, we better get this year's 1st and 2nd, and either next year's 1st and 3rd or next year's 2nd and 3rd and John Abraham. Then at #4 we could either grab D'Brick or Mario Williams (Mario and Abraham together at DEs would be nice for our 4-3, it could be up there with Peppers/Rucker and Strahan/Umenyiora as the best DE tandem in the league). I would still prefer Eric Winston to D'Brick, so hopefully he'll end up falling to #33 (I doubt he will), or maybe we can package something and move back into the 1st round to get him (more possible if we trade down and acquire those extra picks).

HoustonFrog
01-31-2006, 11:51 AM
One thing I think the Texans need to establish is the market for that pick. There is some crazy talent in the top part of the draft. In order to take a trade down we need to put up parameters. Palillo talked about his some a week or so ago and I agree. Make teams reach. I don't know what someone will give up but you set a minimum like "Your #1 this year, your #2 this year adn next years #1"(just a random grouping) and then see who will deal. You don't want to go lower than 4 but what if #5 threw in something crazy to move up like 2 extra picks and you could still get Hawk....anyways, I think you have to set a negotiating limit.

As far as trading down, I'll stick with what I have said all along..Bush #1 and the other 3 in the top 66 you go for your O-line, TE or D. I say O-line. People are still overanalyzing guys but it is a deep draft with crazy talent up top. You can get the best of both worlds. If I dis trade down, I'd still go D and get that playmaker along with the O-line with the next 3.

Xman
01-31-2006, 12:03 PM
I have not been particularily in favor of drafting D this year. I would rather fix the offense so we can get a valid eval of Carr (right now we don't know if he can be the guy or not because the OL has sucked and he hasn't had many weapons).

I also don't think we should give up much for Abraham because he comes with a huge salary (and the Jets have to deal him from a position of weakness).

BUT - I do believe that, in the NFL, you need to either be solid everywhere (Patriots) or you need to excel so much in one area that you cover your weaknesses (philly/Cowby Ds the last few years).

If we switch to the 4-3 and were to add Abraham and draft MWilliams, our DL would be scary. Peek would be a solid backup end. The middle would be strong with Walker/RSmith/Johnson. That would be fun to watch. Plus, we could deal Payne and Babin (maybe to the Jets because he would be cheap to them - if he can't cut it as an OLB in the 4-3).

Assuming Wong and one other LB steps up, we would only be a S, a LB and a CB away from a strong defense.

Of course, the offense would probably still suck.

yourfavoritetexan42
01-31-2006, 12:13 PM
I dont see the texans trading down, Bush/Young... look familiar? Vick/LT?

This is a huge oppurtunity for the Texans...they don't want to blow it.

As for if they were to trade down... maybe hte Titans so they could secure Vince Young (they seem to be locked on VY right now) or maybe the jets. So far we have no idea because there is no legit information on teams that are trying to trade up. But with a draft like this, almost any team will trade up.

Xman
01-31-2006, 12:38 PM
I hope Tenn decides to move up for VY. I think NO will take Leinert (unless they get a good offer to move down) leaving Bush there at #3.

But, if they sit still, they either get their qb (vy or leinert) or a stud RB (Bush and CBrown would be a strong tandem), without giving up a lot of picks. So, I just hope they fall in love with someone and decide it is worth moving up.

bronxbengalsnowtexans
01-31-2006, 02:03 PM
If we were to trade with the Jets (who are picking 4th), the bare minimum we
should receive for our #1 overall is all 3 of their first day picks.
But I see no need to stay within the top 5, actually not even the top 10. This
is a good Draft for OTs, with maybe half a dozen valued at or near first round
picks. If we were to trade farther down (say mid first round), to somebody who has "got to have Reggie", we should be able to get all of their 2006 picks
plus some of their first day picks in '07.
the first person to make sense. i don't think kube has ever drafted above 15 plus you need don't need a qb rb or an overpriced ol. kube will bring in a quality ol coach who can work with good ol to work as a team. trade down far down and maybe get a quality vet or two load up on draft picks mostly on defense. secondly who cares about a broken bush behind the existing ol, or young who won't translate well to the big boys leage,thirdly the top ol ever taken probably don't work well with zone blocking schemes. you have a coach who understands development and not just picking up the fashionable pic of the week

MorKnolle
01-31-2006, 02:08 PM
the first person to make sense. i don't think kube has ever drafted above 15 plus you need don't need a qb rb or an overpriced ol. kube will bring in a quality ol coach who can work with good ol to work as a team. trade down far down and maybe get a quality vet or two load up on draft picks mostly on defense. secondly who cares about a broken bush behind the existing ol, or young who won't translate well to the big boys leage,thirdly the top ol ever taken probably don't work well with zone blocking schemes. you have a coach who understands development and not just picking up the fashionable pic of the week

The Texans are going to have a hard enough time getting a worthwhile trade out of a team in the top 5-10, I don't see any team in the 20-30 range coming up with an offer good enough to make it worth a trade down, plus you don't get to pick at #1 very often (at least hopefully you don't), so you should at least get out of there with a top-level player, whether it's drafting someone like Reggie Bush at #1 or trading down to #4/5 and getting Mario Williams or someone like that. I don't see any team being able to come up with a hefty enough trade to get up to #1, they would have to offer too much to make equal value and they'd never do it. The only way you could possibly get down that far is to make multiple incremental trades, like going #1 to #4/5, then trading again to #8-10, then again to #15-20, but I don't see us being able to piece together something like that and I don't see that many teams looking to give away much to move up 3-4 spots in the draft. It sounds like a nice concept, but realistically it won't happen.