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View Full Version : Will Kubiak send the Texans to the super bowl?


Ryan
01-28-2006, 10:38 PM
will kubiak ever send the texans to the super bowl?

ArlingtonTexan
01-28-2006, 10:40 PM
I hope so.

Napa Auto Parts
01-28-2006, 10:43 PM
i sure hope so but its not looking good so far if he wasnt able with the broncos with a much better roundedfootball team it will be hard with a franchise in need of so much help from QB to Defense like us but it can happen i say in about 7 years we should be in contention.:twocents:

Grid
01-28-2006, 11:16 PM
wow.. three people voted "no".

I really hate our fanbase. I dont think ANY other team in this league has fans so pessimistic and uninformed. Who would vote NO to Kubiak's chances to get this team to the superbowl?

9 years coaching and Kubiak has THREE superbowl rings. He is without a doubt the BEST young coach in the league right now. ESPN has him as one of their top 5 new coaches to take their team to the superbowl, despite the fact that he doesnt have any HC experience.

Our fanbase sucks. I wish I had been born in Green Bay or New York or Pittsburgh... even DALLAS might have been bearable. This is such a depressingly horrible fanbase.

ensign_lee
01-28-2006, 11:24 PM
An offense cannot win championships by itself.
A defense cannot win championships by itself.

The Broncos got whooped in the AFC championship because their defense couldn't contain the Pittsburgh offense moreso than because their offense couldn't score enough.

TexanSam
01-28-2006, 11:56 PM
Just because the Broncos didn't make it this year doesn't mean that Kubiak won't lead the Texans to one. The Broncos made it twice in the 90s and Kubiak also went there with the 49ers. I believe he can and will...with Carr as our QB!

Jack Bauer
01-28-2006, 11:58 PM
wow.. three people voted "no".

I really hate our fanbase. I dont think ANY other team in this league has fans so pessimistic and uninformed. Who would vote NO to Kubiak's chances to get this team to the superbowl?

9 years coaching and Kubiak has THREE superbowl rings. He is without a doubt the BEST young coach in the league right now. ESPN has him as one of their top 5 new coaches to take their team to the superbowl, despite the fact that he doesnt have any HC experience.

Our fanbase sucks. I wish I had been born in Green Bay or New York or Pittsburgh... even DALLAS might have been bearable. This is such a depressingly horrible fanbase.

Man, it is sad to say, but I agree with you 100%. The fans in other cities are so much better than Houston fans. Why is this?

jerek
01-29-2006, 12:18 AM
It is hard to say that the guy will take us to the Super Bowl. Bottom line is, there were a good handful of teams this year that played some great football all year long, and they aren't in the Super Bowl. Some of them haven't made a Super Bowl in years, decades even.

I like Kubiak and think he is going to do big things for this team. I expect us to be in the playoffs within 3-5 years, even. I expect we can make a Super Bowl. But I think it is awfully presumptuous to say that we will. (unless of course we draft Vince Young, then we will make about three of them.)

I went ahead and voted yes because I think we have a really good chance at it, but I would be very hesitant to bet substantially on it. You can be a perenially great football team (i.e. Colts) and not make a Super Bowl. We are too far down the totem pole, with too many gaps and too many unknowns, to predict that kind of success.

Napa Auto Parts
01-29-2006, 12:20 AM
I Voted no because Kubiak will likely get run out of town in the next three years if he is not Succesfull and honestly i still think we are 5 to 7 years away from even being in contention for a superbowl. now i could be ignorant and say oh yes he is going to take us to the superbowl in he's first year and we will win the next 4 super bowls to become a dinasty but im not that much of a homer.

Scooter
01-29-2006, 12:21 AM
fire away. i voted no as a reply to the question, "will kubiak send the texans to the superbowl". given the fact that the coaching profession is a revolving door, given our lack of talent, given that we've got a rookie HC, and given that we're building from square one again (much like the browns) ... i dont think we'll make it to the superbowl under kubiak. i've got good feelings that we'll see a big improvement, and will have a legitimate shot at playoffs in the near future, but that's not the question.

untwist the panties grid, that doesnt mean that i'm not rooting for the texans to win a superbowl next season and every season. what it means is that in this knee-jerk football world, odds are against any head coach outside of pittsburgh to have a long tenure, and i dont think a superbowl appearance is going to happen immediately.

Carr Bombed
01-29-2006, 12:26 AM
Yes the league is a revolving door, but the fact that Mcnair was hoping that Capers could just string a couple of wins together to come up with any kind of case of retaining him, tells me that for the most part Mcnair is a pretty patient guy and is going to give Kubes his chance. Kubiak just has to put up solid seasons and he's going to get plenty of time to get this team into the big dance. Plus the next change isn't going to be the coach It'll be the GM. Kubiak is comming into a great situation.

Mr. White
01-29-2006, 12:30 AM
Kubiak is comming into a great situation.

Agreed. I have a feeling that Casserly wasn't as bad as we all think he is at his job and the last coaching staff was a LOT worse than we all thought they were at their jobs.

edo783
01-29-2006, 12:58 AM
wow.. three people voted "no".

I really hate our fanbase. I dont think ANY other team in this league has fans so pessimistic and uninformed. Who would vote NO to Kubiak's chances to get this team to the superbowl?

9 years coaching and Kubiak has THREE superbowl rings. He is without a doubt the BEST young coach in the league right now. ESPN has him as one of their top 5 new coaches to take their team to the superbowl, despite the fact that he doesnt have any HC experience.

Our fanbase sucks. I wish I had been born in Green Bay or New York or Pittsburgh... even DALLAS might have been bearable. This is such a depressingly horrible fanbase.

I said something pretty similar.......3 years ago. Guess our fanbase isn't like fine wine, just get's worse with time. We are the screw top of fan bases.

YodAa
01-29-2006, 01:02 AM
he wont send us, hell take us

Mr. White
01-29-2006, 02:04 AM
The fans in other cities are so much better than Houston fans. Why is this?

This MB doesn't necessarily speak for the fanbase. And we should be really glad for that. There's lots of worse fanbases than this one.

Believe me...I married into an Eagles family that splintered off into a rebel Cowboys faction.

There is really no hope for the Eagles and their snow-covered battery-throwing fans.

swtbound07
01-29-2006, 04:32 AM
i voted no...you know why? because i refuse to predict sucess until houston addresses its pass protection...period. Games are won in lost in the trenches, not on the sidelines...kubiak fixes our porous o-line then i'll say he can take us to the promised land.

ArlingtonTexan
01-29-2006, 08:43 AM
I did not vote, but the most likely answer is NO! That has nothing to do with the fact Kubiak is a bad, mediocore or great coach. There have been like 20-25 coaches in 40 years to win a Superbowl. I don't know the exact number of people who coached NFL teams during that time frame, but I am going to guess at least 250, so at least 90% chance that he does not win a Superbowl.

That's why I am justing hoping.

Buffi2
01-29-2006, 08:53 AM
I voted yes - why not? We have just as much chance as all of the other teams if Kubiak plugs a few gaping holes and is half the coach I think he is. I'll grant you that the odds of going to a SB aren't in our favor - but who thought the Steelers would end up there this year? I honestly think the Texans can do this if they are all dedicated to making it happen. Big if - but entirely possible.

Vinny
01-29-2006, 08:59 AM
I did not vote, but the most likely answer is NO! That has nothing to do with the fact Kubiak is a bad, mediocore or great coach. There have been like 20-25 coaches in 40 years to win a Superbowl. I don't know the exact number of people who coached NFL teams during that time frame, but I am going to guess at least 250, so at least 90% chance that he does not win a Superbowl.

That's why I am justing hoping.good post. Just look at this week’s Super Bowl. One team has never been there - ever (Seahawks founded in 1976), and the other team is a storied franchise that has won 4 of them....but hasn't won one in a couple of decades (1980). There are still a handful of franchises that have never been to one much less win one.

aj.
01-29-2006, 09:05 AM
I did not vote, but the most likely answer is NO! That has nothing to do with the fact Kubiak is a bad, mediocore or great coach. There have been like 20-25 coaches in 40 years to win a Superbowl. I don't know the exact number of people who coached NFL teams during that time frame, but I am going to guess at least 250, so at least 90% chance that he does not win a Superbowl.
.

This came up once before and I recall taking a look at that one rainy day. I posted it on here or somewhere else - can't remember ..... but I think the percentage was something around 15% of head coaches all time that ever made it to the SB....

Edit: I found it. This was from a year ago but since Holmgren and Cowher are repeats, the 38 number is still accurate, but the 293 number would have to be increased by the number of new head coaches in the league in '05. So, you're looking at around a 10% chance that any head coach will take his team to the Super Bowl in his career.

(From Jan. '05)
There's only two head coaches out of 32 that get to the Super Bowl each year. Plus, out of 293 opportunities since 1966, only 38 head coaches (13%) have ever taken a team to the Super Bowl. So playing the odds, there's a 87% chance that any head coach we (or any other team) brings in won't make it the the Super Bowl.


The percentages are strongly stacked against Kubiak (and any other coach in the NFL) that they will take their team to the Super Bowl, much less win it.

ArlingtonTexan
01-29-2006, 09:17 AM
This came up once before and I recall taking a look at that one rainy day. I posted it on here or somewhere else - can't remember ..... but I think the percentage was something around 15% of head coaches all time that ever made it to the SB....

yeah, sounds realistic enough for me.

One thing to note in favor of Kubiak. He has coached on Superbowl winning staffs. Over the last 20-25 years most of the coaches who have eventually been Superbowl winners have served some time under a coach who has won the Superbowl.

ArlingtonTexan
01-29-2006, 09:19 AM
This came up once before and I recall taking a look at that one rainy day. I posted it on here or somewhere else - can't remember ..... but I think the percentage was something around 15% of head coaches all time that ever made it to the SB....

Edit: I found it. This was from a year ago but since Holmgren and Cowher are repeats, the 38 number is still accurate, but the 293 number would have to be increased by the number of new head coaches in the league in '05.

Was typing while you posted the edit. Thanks for the exact figure.

Wolf
01-29-2006, 09:28 AM
I am not going to vote on this one. why? too hard to tell right now. I am not saying we can't be in the playoffs within 2 -3 years, but I think we can.

I don't believe we are as bad as we played and maybe that is the :homer: in me. We did a 5 game drop in wins last season and were blown out in games. It didn't get that bad in 2002. As everyone talked about liking Capers, I honestly don't think the players had belief in the system of Fangio and Pendry. I believe we were trying to put a square box(players) in a round hole (philosophy).

On Kubiak: As he said and his success will depend on how he can take the players we have and mold a system around their strengths and not vice versa with Dom. I expect a much improved team when they get belief in the system that we are running(offense and defense) because that inspires confidenct.

In 2004 we got AJ the ball on short routes and his YAC were great..2005 we talk about moving him around and creating mismatches...well.. the system we employed didn't get it done and the things that made AJ a threat disappeared.
:twocents:

rmartin65
01-29-2006, 09:39 AM
I think he can. But we have to see how good of a coach he is first.

Kaiser Toro
01-29-2006, 09:43 AM
I do not believe so as long as Carr is here. You know my tune, "#1 QB's in the salary cap era."

bigTEXan8
01-29-2006, 09:47 AM
I am not going to vote on this one. why? too hard to tell right now. I am not saying we can't be in the playoffs within 2 -3 years, but I think we can.

I don't believe we are as bad as we played and maybe that is the :homer: in me. We did a 5 game drop in wins last season and were blown out in games. It didn't get that bad in 2002. As everyone talked about liking Capers, I honestly don't think the players had belief in the system of Fangio and Pendry. I believe we were trying to put a square box(players) in a round hole (philosophy).

On Kubiak: As he said and his success will depend on how he can take the players we have and mold a system around their strengths and not vice versa with Dom. I expect a much improved team when they get belief in the system that we are running(offense and defense) because that inspires confidenct.

In 2004 we got AJ the ball on short routes and his YAC were great..2005 we talk about moving him around and creating mismatches...well.. the system we employed didn't get it done and the things that made AJ a threat disappeared.
:twocents:

I got to agree with you. I voted yes just because I'm an optomist, but it still is too early to say that he's going to take us to the SB. Now, if the question was; Is Kubiak going to take us to the playoffs, I htink you would have an even higher response to "yes".

4Texans
01-29-2006, 10:18 AM
:twocents: Why can't Kubiak coach us to a SB???? John Fox did it at Carolina after 2 years when he took over a 1-15 team. Fox also had never been a HC before. Andy Reid had never been a Coordinator before he took the job at Philly. He was a QB coach under Holmgren w/ the Packers, and now he's won as many or more games than any other coach during his tenure. Marvin Lewis got the Bengals to the playoffs in just 3 years. The Bengals!!!! No HC experience, but he'd been a DC w/ a SB ring. Just think, Tom Landry would not have lasted with the Cowboys in this day and age of the NFL. It took Landry 6 years before he had a winning record.

I like to be optimistic and pull for the home team.:redtowel: texflag:

axman40
01-29-2006, 10:51 AM
will kubiak ever send the texans to the super bowl?
I do not think He will ever send The Texans to the Super Bowl ,but I hope He coaches theTexans to the Super Bowl!

:cool:

nunusguy
01-29-2006, 11:01 AM
The question at this point in time is not can he get us to a SB, but can he
get us into the playoffs ? Getting this team into post season play would be a
giant accomplishment for Kubiak. To be going on and on about a teams chances for a SB appearance when its never had a atleast a 500 season in its history is silly.

CaptainPatriot
01-29-2006, 11:48 AM
But not with Carr! You saw last week what happen with Plummer. Plummer and Carr are similar in QB's. IE: (Mobil, strong arm but can't read defenses).
Sure Carr looks good now and then but I wonder what his stats are against top rated Defenses in the 4th Q? He is also no leader! Just look what Porter said in week 2

While Carr said his linemen "fought their tails off," Pittsburgh linebacker Joey Porter heard Carr saying otherwise.

"He was arguing with his offensive line," Porter said. "Whenever you get a quarterback arguing with his team, that's a good sign."

Also in that game this happened:
After that, the Texans went for it on fourth-and-4 from the Pittsburgh 28 only to get called for delay of game. They tried anyway and Carr overthrew Corey Bradford in the end zone.

just go back and look at the Texan's 4th Q in this game:
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/playbyplay/NFL_20050918_PIT@HOU


Carr had 2 delay of game calls on 2 consecutive drives in that 4th Q. He doesn't have Field awareness. If he can't do it at home in the regular season what makes you think he will be able to do it on the road in the Playoffs?:brickwall

TexansTrueFan
01-29-2006, 12:35 PM
wow.. three people voted "no".

I really hate our fanbase. I dont think ANY other team in this league has fans so pessimistic and uninformed. Who would vote NO to Kubiak's chances to get this team to the superbowl?

9 years coaching and Kubiak has THREE superbowl rings. He is without a doubt the BEST young coach in the league right now. ESPN has him as one of their top 5 new coaches to take their team to the superbowl, despite the fact that he doesnt have any HC experience.

Our fanbase sucks. I wish I had been born in Green Bay or New York or Pittsburgh... even DALLAS might have been bearable. This is such a depressingly horrible fanbase.


yeah not to many positive points of view when it comes to the texans. oh well cause i see a glass thats half full. :)

mancunian
01-29-2006, 01:24 PM
I did not vote, but the most likely answer is NO! That has nothing to do with the fact Kubiak is a bad, mediocore or great coach. There have been like 20-25 coaches in 40 years to win a Superbowl. I don't know the exact number of people who coached NFL teams during that time frame, but I am going to guess at least 250, so at least 90% chance that he does not win a Superbowl.

That's why I am justing hoping.

In the 40 years of the Superbowl just 22 Head Coaches have won it. Its a select band.
I'm an optimist and I look at what John Fox has done at Carolina - he's taken them to a Superbowl just 2 years after they went 1 - 15. Not forgetting this seasons NFC championship game. I think Kubial can take us there but what I think is more important is getting to the players. If you hit a hot streak then you have a great chance.
Look at Bill Bill Cowher at Pittsburgh - 6 AFC Title games and the play offs 10 times in 14 years, and 2 SB appearances including this year.

Double Barrel
01-30-2006, 11:00 AM
mmmmmmmm....KOOLAIDE! I voted "yes" out of blind optimism*. :texflag:

*against my better judgement, of course....

HoustonFrog
01-30-2006, 11:15 AM
I said something pretty similar.......3 years ago. Guess our fanbase isn't like fine wine, just get's worse with time. We are the screw top of fan bases.

Maybe people voted no because of our players and GM not because of Kubiak. Alot of things go into it and even if Kubiak is a genius we have to have the players in place. A "no" answer isn't out of the realm of possibility with the way coaches are given 3 years and are gone.

DFAN
01-30-2006, 01:03 PM
wow.. three people voted "no".

I really hate our fanbase. I dont think ANY other team in this league has fans so pessimistic and uninformed. Who would vote NO to Kubiak's chances to get this team to the superbowl?

9 years coaching and Kubiak has THREE superbowl rings. He is without a doubt the BEST young coach in the league right now. ESPN has him as one of their top 5 new coaches to take their team to the superbowl, despite the fact that he doesnt have any HC experience.

Our fanbase sucks. I wish I had been born in Green Bay or New York or Pittsburgh... even DALLAS might have been bearable. This is such a depressingly horrible fanbase.


Well I voted no. So dont take to much out of the NO votes. Mine was in good fun.

As far as Dallas. They're just as pessimistic if not more than the Texan fans.The sky is always falling in Dallas.

plgb0y
01-30-2006, 01:12 PM
I voted Yes.

If you Line Kubiak up at LT, RG and C... it's a sure lock:pigfly:

TheOgre
01-30-2006, 01:38 PM
:twocents: Why can't Kubiak coach us to a SB????

The question isn't "Can Kubiak coach us to a SB?" it is "WILL Kubiak coach us to a SB?" I don't have an issue with anyone that said "No" to that considering the odds.

Beer and Metal
01-30-2006, 02:30 PM
This came up once before and I recall taking a look at that one rainy day. I posted it on here or somewhere else - can't remember ..... but I think the percentage was something around 15% of head coaches all time that ever made it to the SB....

Edit: I found it. This was from a year ago but since Holmgren and Cowher are repeats, the 38 number is still accurate, but the 293 number would have to be increased by the number of new head coaches in the league in '05. So, you're looking at around a 10% chance that any head coach will take his team to the Super Bowl in his career.



The percentages are strongly stacked against Kubiak (and any other coach in the NFL) that they will take their team to the Super Bowl, much less win it.




What factors are involved in this calculation? Rule changes? Length of tenure? Free agency? Number of games played?


Bottom line: Each coach has a 1 in 16 chance to go to the SB every year.

aj.
01-30-2006, 05:29 PM
What factors are involved in this calculation? Rule changes? Length of tenure? Free agency? Number of games played?


Bottom line: Each coach has a 1 in 16 chance to go to the SB every year.

To simply and more accurately state it, 38 head coaches have made it to the SB out of 293 that served in that capacity over that era.

For example, the Oilers/Titans have had 11 head coaches over the SB era and 1 made it to the SB. In that example, I counted that as 1 coach out of 11 "opportunities."

I shouldn't have used that misleading word "opportunity" because realistically or not, coaches with multiple years in tenure have an "opportinity" every year to get there. I only counted Fisher once even though he's had multiple opportunities.

So forgive me, for not being true to probability theory in my example.

I should have simply stated the fact that 38 coaches have gotten to the SB out of the 293 (and now more) who served in the capacity of head coach over the SB era - meaning somewhere around 13% of the head coaches who ever served in the NFL actually got there. And that's the bottom line.

texanskan
01-30-2006, 05:42 PM
Yes if we stay with him over the longhaul ie. Pittsburgh with Cowher.

ArlingtonTexan
01-30-2006, 05:44 PM
To simply and more accurately state it, 38 head coaches have made it to the SB out of 293 that served in that capacity over that era.

For example, the Oilers/Titans have had 11 head coaches over the SB era and 1 made it to the SB. In the example, that counts as 1 coach out of 11 "opportunities." I only counted Fisher once even though he's had multiple opportunities.

I shouldn't have used that misleading word "opportunity" because realistically or not, coaches with multiple years in tenure have an "opportinity" every year to get there.

So forgive me, I'm not being true to probability theory in the example.

I should have simply stated the fact that 38 coaches have gotten to the SB out of the 293 (and now more) who served in the capactiy of head coach over the SB era - meaning somewhere around 13% of the head coaches who ever served in the NFL actually got there. And that's the bottom line.

Not a math guy, but if we put true probability thoery in place the numbers get less likely if I recall correctly. Let's leave it 13% somewhere around 1 out 7.5 coaches. That way I can stay more hopeful :redtowel:

aj.
01-30-2006, 06:33 PM
Amending one of my previous numbers, there have been 40 different head coaches that have made it to a Super Bowl. Someone else with a lot more time on their hands than I have at the moment can go back and look at how many coaches there have been in the league since '66. I'm pretty sure the 298 number was close prior to the '05 season but I did that a year ago and details are foggy.

Here are the 40 that have made it and the number of times they made it:

Allen
Berry, Belichick 3, Billick
Cowher 2, Callihan
Ditka
Ewbank
Flores 2, Fisher, Fassel, Fox
Grant 4, Gregg, Gibbs 4, Gruden
Holmgren 2
Johnson 2
Lombardi 2, Landry 5, Levy 4
McCafferty, Madden, Miller, Malavasi, Martz
Noll 4
Parcells 3
Rauch, Reeves 4, Ross, Reid
Stram 2, Shula 6, Siefert 2, Switzer, Shanahan 2
Vermeil 2
Walsh 3, Wyche


Lots of good trivia questions in there.. like name the 5 coaches with 13 Super Bowl appearances between them whose names start with the letter S.

And for the extreme trivia championship round, name the 5 Super Bowl head coaches whose names start with the letter M.


Actually, this isn't going to be difficult at all. profootball reference.com has it all laid out.

Number of head coaches in the Super Bowl era: - including interims

Baltimore 2
Buffalo 13
Cincinnati 9
Cleveland 13

Denver 9
Houston 1
Indy (Balt) 16
Jacksonville 2

Kansas City 9
Miami 6
New England/Boston 13
New York Jets 13

Oakland/LA 10
Pittsburgh 3
San Diego 13
Tennessee/Hou 11

Ariz/StL 13
Atlanta 13
Carolina 3
Chicago 9

Dallas 6
Detroit 13
Green Bay 9
Minnesota 6

New Orleans 12
New York Giants 10
Philadelphia 11
San Fransisco 11

Seattle 6
St Louis/LA 10
Tampa 7
Washington 11

So adding them all up, I get 293 ...so I guess that number was good after all.

Conclusion: 40 different head coaches have made it to the Super Bowl out of the 293 who have held that title during that era. (13.6%)

Corrosion
01-30-2006, 07:58 PM
will kubiak ever send the texans to the super bowl?


Eventually .... Although it may be several years down the road . There is a lot of work to do cleaning up the mess Capers and Casserly made here .:twocents: