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View Full Version : Deepest draft in 15 years


Grid
01-18-2006, 07:57 AM
This is conjecture.. cant back it up with any proof..so take it for what its worth.

But ive been hearing from people that the scouts that they talk to have been saying that this is the deepest draft in 15+ years. One specifically said that the scouts he talks to said that there are 40 to 50 rookies that carry 1st round grades.

Last year they said there were 18, in 2004 there were 22, and in 2003 there were 20. So.. this is an incredibly deep draft.


Here is the thing. I think we need to trade down. All the Vince Young supporters talking about how the Broncos manage 2000 yard seasons without 1st round RBs convinced me we dont need Bush. And all the posts about Carrs potential and Kubiaks track record with QBs and such convinced me that we dont need Young. What everyone can agree on is that Defense wins championships..and we could use some help on defense.

All of that.. combined with the fact that there are THAT MANY players that grade out to 1st round talent.. has me absolutely salivating over the possibility that we could trade down and grab 4 or 5 1st round quality players.

Thats amazing.


UNFORTUNATLY. This also severely lessens the value of the #1 pick. Sure there is Reggie Bush, Vince Young, and Matt Lienart to choose from at #1.. but to trade up to the #1 spot..you will have to trade away your first day picks in one of the deepest drafts in recent memory. Not very inviting.


I hope Casserly can pull something off. Honestly..it doesnt have to be an ungodly amount of picks in trade for me to be happy with the deal. A normal trade would be fine with me.. grab an extra #2 and #3.. maybe a #4 or #5.. and move down to the 6-17 area of the 1st round.. that would be ok with me. That is still an awesome amount of draft picks to get in a deep draft.

Kaiser Toro
01-18-2006, 09:05 AM
Have not heard that myself, but I have not been looking. Normally when it comes to draft prognostication, not individual evaluations as I like to watch players myself, I do tend to defer to posters like yourself as you do have a good finger on the pulse.

If this is the overiding sentiment amongst the "gurus" then it furthers my resolve for trading down.

Grid
01-18-2006, 09:41 AM
Well im kinda like you.. I defer to other posters I know who seem to have their fingers on the pulse :). The guy who I got this info from is a fairly good source.. ive never known him to talk out his ***.

MorKnolle
01-18-2006, 09:52 AM
Agree, I had not heard any specific figures like that but it does seem like there are a lot of different players that are being thrown in the 1st round of reputable mock drafts this year, much more so than in the past, and with so many good juniors declaring this year it just adds to the talent pool. Some people have said that because there is so much good talent available that we can afford to spend the #1 pick on Young/Bush since there will be talent available later. To me, I think both Young and Bush will be great talents, but I don't think either one will be able to help this team much more than what we already have in place, and with such a deep draft and so many holes we need to fill that persuades me even more to trade down. I know we have the Saints 3rd and Denver has the Redskins 1st, but are there other teams than anyone knows of that have multiple 2nd or 3rd round picks that we could trade down with and maybe swap 1sts and pick up two extra 2nd round picks this year and maybe a future 1st or 2nd?

Kaiser Toro
01-18-2006, 09:56 AM
Have you guys heard yet where the draft will be? I am thinking I may go to it this year.

MorKnolle
01-18-2006, 09:58 AM
Somewhere in NYC is all I know, NFL.com probably has something about it in their draft section.

Grid
01-18-2006, 10:03 AM
actually MorKnolle.. I was looking at who has extra picks this year and it doesnt look good for us :(.. NO ONE has extra second round picks..and the teams with extra thirds have late round picks (NE, Denver, etc..)

thats alright though cause really..with how high our pick is this year.. we cant afford to get TOO MANY picks... plus..there is a limit on how many picks you can have.. i wanna say its 12 but im not sure. Anyway.. just trading down 5 or 6 slots and getting an extra second and third in the deal would be ideal to me

MorKnolle
01-18-2006, 10:13 AM
Agreed, moving down and getting one 2nd and next year's 1st would be ok, I posted this in one of the mock threads but I'll put this idea here:

Trade with Jets, swap 1sts, get their 2nd and next year's 1st (I'd like to add John Abraham in there and drop one of the picks to a later round, but if we're getting Mario then I think Babin is serviceable enough as a 4-3 DE).

Pick up LeCharles Bentley in free agency.

1.4) Mario Williams
2.1) Eric Winston (I don't think he'll fall this far, but some including Kiper have him here so if he is that's a great steal for us)
2.4) Davin Joseph/best CB available (if a real nice CB falls this far grab him, otherwise continue to solidify the OL)
3.1) best CB available/best interior OL (depends on what we do with #36 pick)
3.2) if a good, fast WR is available get him, otherwise get best available TE
4.1) best TE/OL/WR/LB/CB (if we go WR at #66 get TE here, if not then go for best/most athletic WR/LB/CB or interior OL if one falls)
5.1) BPA at position of need
6.1) BPA at position of need
7.1) BPA at position of need

Grid
01-18-2006, 10:25 AM
Im with ya on everything except mario williams. If we switch to a 4-3 that may be cool.

Vernon Davis is a mid first rounder at this point.. but he is a workout warrior and one of those freakish athletes that gets teams drooling.. i see him shooting into the top ten after the combine. So this is what id like to see.

1.4) Vernon Davis
2.1) Eric Winston (i just looked at his scouting report..nice fit)
2.4) Jason Allen (could possibly play CB or FS for us)
3.1) Gabe Watson
3.2) Daryn Colledge/Thomas Howard
4.1) Mark Setterstrom
BPA in the rest

MorKnolle
01-18-2006, 10:28 AM
You want us to use the #4 pick on a TE? I don't like that at all, I don't care if he is the next Shockey/Winslow, I think we have defensive and OL problems that better warrant the use of the #4 pick. I wouldn't have that big of a problem with us getting a TE in the 2nd round if we look OL in the 1st, but I still say we can find a good enough TE in the 3rd round or later and I definitely don't like us taking one at #4 overall.

Grid
01-18-2006, 10:32 AM
eh.. it has been a weakness of ours... not a glaring one but I like what Davis brings to the table, and I think he could help us win.

Honestly who i want is Ko Simpson.. but #4 overall is a little high to be taking him :)... maybe we could just take Dbrickshaw at #4.. then package our 2 seconds and move up to one of denver's picks to grab Ko Simpson :)

wags
01-18-2006, 10:36 AM
Honestly who i want is Ko Simpson..

I am with you there. It's going to be interesting to see where he goes in the draft. With all our needs it would be hard to give something up for just one player though.

MorKnolle
01-18-2006, 10:37 AM
eh.. it has been a weakness of ours... not a glaring one but I like what Davis brings to the table, and I think he could help us win.

Honestly who i want is Ko Simpson.. but #4 overall is a little high to be taking him :)... maybe we could just take Dbrickshaw at #4.. then package our 2 seconds and move up to one of denver's picks to grab Ko Simpson :)

I still prefer Eric Winston to D'Brick Ferguson for our team, and if Winston is going to slip to #33 then I'm all for getting him there and then using our 1st rounder otherwise. I like trading to #4 and drafting Mario as long as he puts up pretty good workout numbers, or maybe trading lower and going after a DB like Michael Huff or someone like that, or else just staying at #1 and drafting Reggie Bush. I don't like Ferguson as a #4 pick as I don't think he'll do well for our team, and I don't like taking a TE in the 1st round.

Grid
01-18-2006, 10:37 AM
Yah I know.. ive really been hoping that he has a bad workout or something and slips to #33 :).. i have a feeling that he is gonna either stay where he is or move up though.

Kiper has him going to the Chargers at #19. If they do get him.. that defense is getting scary.

Grid
01-18-2006, 10:42 AM
you might change your mind once ya start hearing more about Vernon Davis and seeing his highlights :)..hes something else hehe.

But I can understand where you are coming from.. id prefer to get a playmaker on defense with our #1 pick too.. I just cant seem to find any that I want in the top half of the first. The 1st round seems to be very heavy on offense.. unless you run a 4-3 :P

I didnt like the scouting report i read on Mario Williams either.

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/scoutingreports/de/mariowilliams.html

His "weaknesses" sound like a recipe for an average player, or a bust.

MorKnolle
01-18-2006, 10:51 AM
you might change your mind once ya start hearing more about Vernon Davis and seeing his highlights :)..hes something else hehe.

But I can understand where you are coming from.. id prefer to get a playmaker on defense with our #1 pick too.. I just cant seem to find any that I want in the top half of the first. The 1st round seems to be very heavy on offense.. unless you run a 4-3 :P

I didnt like the scouting report i read on Mario Williams either.

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/scoutingreports/de/mariowilliams.html

His "weaknesses" sound like a recipe for an average player, or a bust.

Yeah I hadn't read a good scouting report on him yet, I was mainly going with drafting him if he put up workout numbers similar to Julius Peppers, if not he's still a consideration but I don't know if I'd get him at #4. If that's the case, I'd try to move down farther in the draft and go OL (although it sounds like my favorite OT might last until the 2nd round, so if we can get him there, great) or maybe DB if we're in the 10-15 range, otherwise I'd be fine taking Bush at #1, although I'd use him more primarily as our #2 WR and an occasional RB (he could be a WR similar to Steve Smith as a few people had pointed out before), and I think he'd help our offense more as being a WR on maybe 75% of the snaps and then getting 5-8 carries a game and letting Davis/Morency get 20-25 carries and Wells on short-yardage situations.

Grid
01-18-2006, 11:39 AM
Ya know what would be nice is if the 9ers would give us their 1st and 2nd this year, and 1st next year.

We could grab Hlatoi Ngata (if we stay with a 3-4).. possibly Michael Huff or Jimmy Williams depending on how their stock is. Maybe even Dbrick or Justice.

Having the 9ers first pick next year would be money in the bank too. Considering the troubles that Alex Smith had this year.. its unlikely that they will be a very good team next year.

Course.. they realize this and probably would want to hold onto the picks they have.. even though Bush is a hometown prospect that they could really use.

MorKnolle
01-18-2006, 11:49 AM
If we stay in a 3-4, we still aren't going to get Ngata. We have Gary Walker and Seth Payne with huge contracts that we can't move unless one of them unexpectedly retires but I don't see that happening, and then Robaire Smith and last year's 1st rounder Travis Johnson to try to work in there. Adding the 49ers 1st rounder for next year would be nice, although the 49ers are in the rebuilding stage so I doubt they send a bunch of their picks over here to us, maybe the Raiders would but I don't see Al Davis trading unless he is sure he is getting an unfair deal out of it.

Grid
01-18-2006, 11:53 AM
Payne and Walker are both on their way out though. I know walker is still a big cap hit for a couple more seasons.. not sure on payne though. We NEED to have some kind of backup to these guys.. someone we are grooming.

Honestly..if ya step back and look at it.. why does it matter if we pay first pick money to Ngata or someone else? the money will be on the cap either way. Is it because we want that player we are paying so much to be starting? Well do you expect Walker to be playing all season? i sure dont..he will be out in a few games again. We have already made the mistake of paying Payne and Walker too much for too long.. we are just gonna have to suck it up until we can get rid of em.. but im not gonna neglect getting much needed young talent for our Dline because of it. Ngata is exactly what you want in a 3-4 DT.. may not get a chance at a player like him for a while.

MorKnolle
01-18-2006, 12:04 PM
The main problem is that we have Walker ($7.4 million to get rid of) and Payne ($3.4 million to get rid of) there already, and they are both pretty good players when they are healthy, and I don't think either is retiring so I doubt either one will be traded/cut. Robaire Smith is young and talented (and costs $5.6 million to get rid of anyways) as our other DE, and we used a 1st round pick on Travis Johnson (FYI $4.8 million to get rid of, but there's no reason to consider axing him) last year after ignoring our obvious OL problems and not taking Derrick Johnson that would have at least been a great LB. We have four guys up front that are still pretty talented and that is decent depth, and all four are pretty expensive so we can't move them. We have some glaring holes on the OLine and in the DBs, so I don't see us spending a second consecutive 1st round pick on a DLineman, plus Kubiak very likely will switch to a 4-3 anyways since that's what he's more familiar with, and if that happens all four of our current guys are sucked into sharing time at the two DT spots since none of them are fit for DE in a 4-3 (Robaire or TJ could play it out of necessity, but it would limit our pass rush and if we do that we might as well stay in a 3-4 anyways). We have to address more pressing needs with our 1st round pick, especially since we have the option of choosing someone at #1 or trading down and acquiring more picks. In my mind adding Ngata would be the same as taking Bush or Young and adding depth to a position that we don't need as much help at, only Bush and Young are more talented and worthy of the #1 pick and with Bush he is at least a great offensive playmaker and can be used at other positions so I can at least see a point in drafting him.