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Sarg01
01-01-2006, 08:04 AM
The Texans have clinched at least the #4 pick with the Giants victory over the Raiders. The Giants victory mathematically eliminates San Francisco's ability to get in front of the Texans. San Fran's minimum number is now 137. Houston's maximum is 138, however in order to get there, St. Louis and Seattle would have to win, which would raise the 49ers minimum to 140. If just St. Louis won, the 49ers would have a min of 138, but the Texans would have a max of 137.

San Diego's loss hurts without doing official damage. By losing, they put the playoff burden back on Pittsburgh - and we REALLY could use a Lions over Steelers victory.

nunusguy
01-01-2006, 10:43 AM
I'll be following your thread today Sarg, because I know you've got this
subject covered like no one else.
So if we win and NO loses, no way we can get #1 but we are assured of #4
and maybe end up with #2 or #3 ?

bckey
01-01-2006, 12:17 PM
I really appreciate all the effort you have put into this Sarg. You're on top of this better than any of the sports writers. I too will be following your thread today.

tulexan
01-01-2006, 02:43 PM
We could be in a good situation right now. If the Jets and Packers win, then the worst we could finish is 2. If we win then the Saints will have 1, we will have 2, and the Niners will have 3. The Niners most likely won't trade up to get Reggie because they are in a position like us. That means that the Saints couldn't trade down to 3 and then get who ever is left between Leinart and Young because both the Texans and the Niners will trade their pick if Bush is off the board. They will forced to take Leinart which means that we could get Bush with the #2.

Hottoddie
01-01-2006, 02:49 PM
We could be in a good situation right now. If the Jets and Packers win, then the worst we could finish is 2. If we win then the Saints will have 1, we will have 2, and the Niners will have 3. The Niners most likely won't trade up to get Reggie because they are in a position like us. That means that the Saints couldn't trade down to 3 and then get who ever is left between Leinart and Young because both the Texans and the Niners will trade their pick if Bush is off the board. They will forced to take Leinart which means that we could get Bush with the #2.

Never under estimate what a GM will do. Who could've ever guessed that a coach could've influenced his GM to give up his entire draft for one player?

Sarg01
01-01-2006, 02:56 PM
I'll be following your thread today Sarg, because I know you've got this
subject covered like no one else.
So if we win and NO loses, no way we can get #1 but we are assured of #4
and maybe end up with #2 or #3 ?

Actually, we can still "beat" the Saints. It won't be an easy thing to do, but it's not one of those "these seven things have to happen" type deals.

The key games are Detroit over Pittsburgh (down 1 TD at the half, but no blowout) and Green Bay over Seattle (up by 6 at half). Getting both is a 4-GAME swing on the Saints. We need either Arizona (down 1 TD) or the Jets (up by 4 points) to win to avoid a coin flip.

The KC blowout doesn't matter to us, but it hurts the Jets.
The Carolina blowout doesn't matter to any of the 3-win teams.

Obviously a Jets or Packers win clinches #3 or better for us. A Detroit win will do the same (by mathematically eliminating the Packers)

Sarg01
01-01-2006, 03:00 PM
FOX is cutting to Saints/Bucs from Panthers/Falcons to show us "a much more competitive game" per the announcer!

Sarg01
01-01-2006, 04:17 PM
With that lost fumble for a TD, the Saints just clinched the SOS tiebreak on the Texans. :bomb:

In other news, we have clinched at least the #3 with the Packers win. Jets are up by 4 with 54 seconds left. If they win we clinch the #2 in a tie situation.

Sarg01
01-01-2006, 04:28 PM
That's it. All confusion is now gone. If the Texans lose, they get #1, if they win they get #2. There are no remaining alternate scenarios.

New Orleans will finish with either .520 or .523 SOS (if St. Louis wins).
Houston (if they win) will finish .527 or .531 (if St. Louis wins).
San Francisco (if they lose) will finish .539, .543 (Chicago OR St. Louis wins) or .547 (St Louis AND Chicago win).

CITY CAT
01-01-2006, 05:06 PM
Are U sure, that the Saints won't trade pick #1. How do we know that Houston is guarenteed pick #2. What it St. Louis loses? Thanks!

NederlandTexan
01-01-2006, 05:11 PM
The numbers don't lie Cat. We will have no worse than the second pick. If N.O. gets the first, they might trade that pick. Good job, Sarge.

CITY CAT
01-01-2006, 06:11 PM
But what if the Rams lose???

Scooter
01-01-2006, 06:14 PM
But what if the Rams lose???

if the rams lose, it's the first set of numbers (.520/.527), if they win it's the second set (if i'm reading that right). it wouldnt affect the outcome either way.

New Orleans will finish with either .520 or .523 SOS (if St. Louis wins).
Houston (if they win) will finish .527 or .531 (if St. Louis wins).
San Francisco (if they lose) will finish .539, .543 (Chicago OR St. Louis wins) or .547 (St Louis AND Chicago win).

CITY CAT
01-01-2006, 06:18 PM
Is there a chance that the Jets trade for the first pick, do they have anything to offer.

Sarg01
01-01-2006, 07:12 PM
But what if the Rams lose???

All three teams played the Rams, so it doesn't matter if the Rams win or lose, other than what number ends up as the official SOS.

DRIFTAWAY
01-01-2006, 07:26 PM
ok so if we win its #2 pick if we lose its #1 pick what if we tie with the niners??

awtysst
01-01-2006, 08:05 PM
ok so if we win its #2 pick if we lose its #1 pick what if we tie with the niners??

If we had tied, we would have gotten the first pick. It is based of wins(or losses). Either way, we would have been 1 off from NO and thus the first pick overall.

Sarg01
01-01-2006, 08:20 PM
Here's the draft standing. Stl/Dal might change some small things. Obviously #31 and #32 will change, since they're both AFC teams.

1 Hou 2 0.531
2 NO 3 0.52
3 Ten 4 0.508
4 NYJ 4 0.527
5 GB 4 0.531 (will gain tiebreak in Stl/Dal)
6 SF 4 0.531
7 Oak 4 0.539
8 Stl 5 0.484
9 Buff 5 0.5 (will gain tiebreak in Stl/Dal)
10 Arz 5 0.5
11 Det 5 0.504
12 Cle 6 0.508
13 Bal 6 0.523
14 Phi 6 0.527
15 Atl 8 0.492
16 Mia 9 0.457
17 Min 9 0.48
18 Dal 9 0.52
19 SD 9 0.559
20 KC 10 0.504
21 NE 10 0.508
22 Was 10 0.535
23 Car 11 0.449 (division tiebreak)
24 TB 11 0.449
25 Chi 11 0.457
26 Cin 11 0.477
27 NYG 11 0.488
28 Pit 11 0.492
29 Jax 12 0.461
30 Sea 13 0.422
31 Den 13 0.5
32 Ind 14 0.453