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View Full Version : SOS going into last week


TheOgre
12-27-2005, 11:18 AM
I'm still upset that the Saints let Detroit convert a 4th and 17 at the end of last week's game to get in FG range to win it.

Current Opponent Wins
New Orleans 124
Houston 128
NY Jets 128
Green Bay 130
San Francisco 131


If Finish 3-13, the Opponent's Win Range
New Orleans 131 -135 (131 and add one for wins by Giants, Detroit, Green Bay, or St. Louis)

Houston 133-138 (133 and add one for wins by Buffalo, Pitt., Indi., Seattle, or St. Louis)

NY Jets 135-139 (135 and add one for wins by Oakland, Balt., KC, or Jacksonville)

Green Bay 137-140 (137 and add one for wins by Detroit, Cinci., or Philly)

San Fran. 136-143 (136 and add one for wins by Giants, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Chicago, or St. Louis and add 2 for a win by Seattle)

nunusguy
12-27-2005, 11:30 AM
Do you not have to add 2 to the win total if a division member wins, since
they appear in your schedule twice ? So for example in AZ vs. Indy, a AZ win is +1 but an Indy win is +2 in our SOS when calculating wins.

Sarg01
12-27-2005, 12:17 PM
Do you not have to add 2 to the win total if a division member wins, since
they appear in your schedule twice ? So for example in AZ vs. Indy, a AZ win is +1 but an Indy win is +2 in our SOS when calculating wins.

I believe he's rolled a AZ win into the 133 number, so you would need to add just one if Indy won, since the guaranteed +1 is already included.

128 (current)
+2 (Titans/Jax)
+1 (Cincin/KC)
+1 (Balt/Cleve)
+1 (Az*/Indy)
=
133 - this is the lowest possible number we can have

TheOgre
12-27-2005, 12:35 PM
I believe he's rolled a AZ win into the 133 number, so you would need to add just one if Indy won, since the guaranteed +1 is already included.


That is correct. I tried to simplify it as much as possible.

Sarg01
12-27-2005, 12:37 PM
You do need to bump up Green Bay one to 137-140, though and strike Seattle from the +1. They have to lose to Seattle to stay 3-13 for the tiebreaker to matter to us.

It's worth pointing out that the 49ers can't get ahead of the Texans. The best they can manage is a coin flip and they need a septecta (like a trifecta with 7 conditions) to even do that.

TheOgre
12-27-2005, 12:42 PM
Good catch. Done.

blockhead83
12-27-2005, 12:46 PM
Was looking for a simplistic analysis of this situation...thanks Ogre. I guess if we win next week it atleast helps our own SOS by decreasing our opponents' wins by one ;).

texansfan88
12-27-2005, 11:21 PM
so in reality, Green Bay cannot achieve the #1 pick anyway because if everything goes right for them, their lowest strength of schedule is still higher than New Orleans highest strength of schedule, therefore eliminating them from any talk, right?

texansfan88
12-27-2005, 11:41 PM
Also, don't forget, NYJ can actually have up to 139 opponent victories (you forgot that they played Tampa Bay)

CharloTex
12-27-2005, 11:45 PM
I have NYJ with a minimum of 135. If they lose to Buf, add 2 to thier 16th week ending 128. The result of NE vs. Mia adds automatic 2 more. Den vs. SD adds 1. Car @ Atl adds 1. NO @ TB adds 1 more. That's 135.

texansfan88
12-27-2005, 11:48 PM
you're right, didnt put a +1 in mine for NO vs. TB

it's 135-139

CharloTex
12-27-2005, 11:53 PM
No problem. I had Tennessee instead of Jacksonville adding a point to NYJ in my similar post, so thanks for that correction.

Hottoddie
12-28-2005, 12:15 AM
I put the numbers on an Excel spread sheet to keep from going insane. I compared our numbers to New Orleans numbers, but haven't looked too closely at the other teams yet.

Houston & New Orleans have 2 common teams on their schedules, so those 2 are a wash. That leaves us with 14 games that'll count towards the SOS. Assuming we win Sunday, the 14 non common teams on our schedule would have to go 5-9, while New Orleans 14 teams would have to go 9-5, just for us to have the same SOS of .5236%.

So, unless we want to leave it to a coin flip &, of course, the 14 teams on our's & their schedules, we have to lose Sunday's game, or kiss the #1 pick good bye.

The Jets are in the same boat with us.

Both the Packers & 49er's are still in it, but they'd have to have a major W/L differential. So, realistically they're out of the running for the top pick, unless the Saints win on Sunday. However, stranger things have happened.

jacquescas
12-28-2005, 02:48 AM
luckily all 3 of the other 3-12 teams play at noon and we dont play til 3. which means by that time we will have a pretty clear cut picture as to what the team needs to do.

New Orleans is playing a 10-5 Tampa Bay and will most likely lose.

Gree Bay is playing a 13-2 Seattle who has locked up homefield advantage and there is a nchance they may rest players and green bay could win this one. If they play their starters more than a quarter the packers will lose.

Jets play 5-10 Buffalo and this is a winable game for them.


Also having New Orleans lose isn't a bad thing because they would most likely choose Linart with the first pick. So if we win, we need Green Bay and Buffalo to win to hold onto reggie Bush (yes i'm a bush supporter) Or whatever player we wanted since we probbaly were not going to draft Linart.

aj.
12-28-2005, 08:59 AM
Houston & New Orleans have 2 common teams on their schedules, so those 2 are a wash. That leaves us with 14 games that'll count towards the SOS. .

There are also other games on their respective schedules that you already know the outcome - because two opponents are playing each other this week and it's virtually guaranteed that one will win and the other will lose - making the net effect either +1 or +2 in the 'opponent win' count. Considering those games makes it slightly more accurate to forecast movement of opponent win total/SoS.

btw, New Orleans played Buffalo and the Jets while the Texans only played Buffalo so that one is only a wash if Buffalo wins (Both NO and Hou +1). If the Jets win, NO gains 1 relative to Houston)

Consider the Texans 'opponent win' count: Baltimore @ Cleveland will be +1 'opponent win' regardless of who wins, Cincinnati @ KC (+1 regardless who wins), Tennessee @ Jax (+2) regardless.

The only games this week that can really move the Texans number a TBD amount are StL @ Dal (StL wins +1, Dal wins 0); Az @ Indy (Indy wins +2, Az wins +1); Det @ Pit (Det wins 0, Pit wins +1), Sea @ GB (Sea wins +1, GB wins 0). These games appear very predictable.

There are also other games that have zero effect on the Texans or Saints SoS (Denver/SD, Wash/Philly).

So when you consider all that, the big picture gets a lot smaller....

From where I sit, it's the Saints in the drivers seat for #1 if they lose and the Texans win.

TheOgre
12-28-2005, 11:12 AM
I have NYJ with a minimum of 135. If they lose to Buf, add 2 to thier 16th week ending 128. The result of NE vs. Mia adds automatic 2 more. Den vs. SD adds 1. Car @ Atl adds 1. NO @ TB adds 1 more. That's 135.

Thanks. I corrected for that.

TheOgre
12-28-2005, 11:53 AM
Keep this in mind. If San Diego wins on Saturday, then Pittsburgh automatically secures the #6 seed and Kansas City is eliminated. This means that Detroit might be able to beat a Pittsburgh team that will be resting its starters.

MorKnolle
12-28-2005, 12:50 PM
Keep this in mind. If San Diego wins on Saturday, then Pittsburgh automatically secures the #3 seed and Kansas City is eliminated. This means that Detroit might be able to beat a Pittsburgh team that will be resting its starters.

Pittsburgh will not secure the #3 seed, they can be a wild card at best. Cincinnati won the division and seeds 1-4 are only division winners.

TheOgre
12-28-2005, 01:35 PM
Pittsburgh will not secure the #3 seed, they can be a wild card at best. Cincinnati won the division and seeds 1-4 are only division winners.

I meant the #6 seed. I seem to be making typos and miscalculations throughout this thread. I apologize.

beerlover
12-28-2005, 01:42 PM
I meant the #6 seed. I seem to be making typos and miscalculations throughout this thread. I apologize.

no reason to apologize Ogre your threads are always good, informative and well written- Happy Holidays!

MorKnolle
12-28-2005, 01:51 PM
I was looking at it and maybe I missed something but how does San Diego winning knock Kansas City out of the playoffs and secure Pittsburgh's wild card? Either way Pittsburgh has to lose at home to Detroit and Kansas City has to win at home against Cincinnati in order for the Chiefs to get in instead of the Steelers (fairly unlikely combination of events), but I don't see how San Diego factors in there.

Hottoddie
12-28-2005, 09:06 PM
btw, New Orleans played Buffalo and the Jets while the Texans only played Buffalo so that one is only a wash if Buffalo wins (Both NO and Hou +1). If the Jets win, NO gains 1 relative to Houston)


You're making this way too complicated. The two common teams that I was referring to are the Buffalo & St.Louis games. Since we both played them during the year, the results of a W/L by either one will affect us equally. Heck, maybe we're saying the same thing.

The bottom line is that we need the teams on our respective schedules for this year to go 5-9 for us & 9-5 for them in week 17, just to end up with the same opponents W/L percentages. So, if we go 4-10 to their 9-5, or 5-9 to their 10-4, then we end up with the lower opponent's W/L%.

From my perspective, we should pull all the starters & tell everyone that we're evaluating talent for next year.:D

TheOgre
12-30-2005, 10:47 AM
I was looking at it and maybe I missed something but how does San Diego winning knock Kansas City out of the playoffs and secure Pittsburgh's wild card? Either way Pittsburgh has to lose at home to Detroit and Kansas City has to win at home against Cincinnati in order for the Chiefs to get in instead of the Steelers (fairly unlikely combination of events), but I don't see how San Diego factors in there.

If San Diego, Pittsburgh, and Kansas City are all 10-6, then Pittsburgh goes. That is how a win by San Diego eliminates KC.

MorKnolle
12-30-2005, 11:02 AM
If San Diego, Pittsburgh, and Kansas City are all 10-6, then Pittsburgh goes. That is how a win by San Diego eliminates KC.

Yes, but how does San Diego fit in there? If KC wins and Pittsburgh loses and both are 10-6 then Pittsburgh still gets in don't they, or would that somehow change if San Diego loses?

Sarg01
12-30-2005, 01:20 PM
Yes, but how does San Diego fit in there? If KC wins and Pittsburgh loses and both are 10-6 then Pittsburgh still gets in don't they, or would that somehow change if San Diego loses?

Nope.

KC has the tiebreaker on Pitt, by virtue of their 9-3 AFC record (assuming they win, of course).

This is the part that we, as Texan fans, have got to love:

The rules in the case of a three-way tie say the FIRST thing you consider is if two of the teams are in the same division. If so, the higher divisional ranked team eliminates the lower.

Currently, KC has a 4-2 divisional record. San Diego has a 3-2, and will have a 4-2 if they win the game this weekend.

The next divisional tiebreaker is common games. So for teams in the same division, that means 14 games count and 2 don't. So if one team has a BETTER record in the 2 non-common games, they have a worse record in common games - and are therefore eliminated from the playoffs.

San Diego surely should have come out on the right side of this one, having played Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. Lo' and behold, they upset Indy, giving them a 1-1 in non-common opponents.

KC will play one of their non-common opponents this weekend. Since they have to win to even talk about the tie, we'll chalk up a win for them.

So, who's the other team that KC played that SD didn't and did KC lose (in which case they get in the playoffs) or did they win (in which case they're out)?

... Any one remember a lovely Sunday night drubbing at Reliant Stadium?

TheOgre
12-30-2005, 01:54 PM
So if San Diego beats Denver on Saturday, then Pittsburgh has no need to beat Detroit. This gives Detroit a chance to win the game, which would help (decrease) our SOS. That would also hurt (increase) New Orlean's and Green Bay's SOS.

If we win and New Orleans loses, it would help a lot to have Detroit (Pittsburgh) and Green Bay (Seattle) win. If those two upsets occurred, then we might get the #1 overall pick anyways.

Sarg01
12-30-2005, 02:43 PM
So if San Diego beats Denver on Saturday, then Pittsburgh has no need to beat Detroit. This gives Detroit a chance to win the game, which would help (decrease) our SOS. That would also hurt (increase) New Orlean's and Green Bay's SOS.

If we win and New Orleans loses, it would help a lot to have Detroit (Pittsburgh) and Green Bay (Seattle) win. If those two upsets occurred, then we might get the #1 overall pick anyways.

When I was looking at things, I determined that if either Pitt or Seattle wins that we can't do any better than a coin flip for #1 (assuming Saints loss, naturally). Both games are two game swings from Saints to Texans.

MorKnolle
12-30-2005, 03:08 PM
Nope.

KC has the tiebreaker on Pitt, by virtue of their 9-3 AFC record (assuming they win, of course).

This is the part that we, as Texan fans, have got to love:

The rules in the case of a three-way tie say the FIRST thing you consider is if two of the teams are in the same division. If so, the higher divisional ranked team eliminates the lower.

Currently, KC has a 4-2 divisional record. San Diego has a 3-2, and will have a 4-2 if they win the game this weekend.

The next divisional tiebreaker is common games. So for teams in the same division, that means 14 games count and 2 don't. So if one team has a BETTER record in the 2 non-common games, they have a worse record in common games - and are therefore eliminated from the playoffs.

San Diego surely should have come out on the right side of this one, having played Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. Lo' and behold, they upset Indy, giving them a 1-1 in non-common opponents.

KC will play one of their non-common opponents this weekend. Since they have to win to even talk about the tie, we'll chalk up a win for them.

So, who's the other team that KC played that SD didn't and did KC lose (in which case they get in the playoffs) or did they win (in which case they're out)?

... Any one remember a lovely Sunday night drubbing at Reliant Stadium?

OK, I hadn't taken to time to look up the varying tiebreakers in this case, so good work on that.