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Sarg01
12-11-2005, 11:19 PM
Here's the current SOS numbers, the Saints/Falcons Monday night game only affects New Orleans of the 4-wins-or-less-crowd. Draft positioning is Super Bowl as 32 and 31, then lowest win-loss record, then lowest strength of schedule, then divisional tiebreaks (where applicable) and conference tiebreaks (where applicable) and finally by coin flip.

1 win teams:

Houston, 112 opponent victories

2 win teams:

San Fran, 114

3 win teams:

New York Jets, 107
New Orleans, 111 (assuming Monday night loss)
Green Bay, 112

4 win teams:

Tennessee, 104
Buffalo, 104 (under Tennessee via Conference record)
Arizona, 105 (coin flip)
Cleveland, 105 (coin flip)
Detroit, 107
Baltimore, 108
New Orleans, 109 (assuming Monday night win)
Oakland, 110

All else being equal (highly unlikely) the Texans would have pick #12 if they won out, #4 with 2 victories, #1 with 1 victory and #1 with no victories.

Big B Texan Fan
12-11-2005, 11:43 PM
Thanx

Coach C.
12-12-2005, 12:33 AM
If we win then the likely hood is SF gets the number 1 due to strength of schedule. They have played an easier schedule and would have the same record if I am not mistaken. We would have the number 2 and I would be estatic because we get to trade down and everyone can shut the hell up about Reggie Bush.

Sarg01
12-12-2005, 01:10 AM
If we win then the likely hood is SF gets the number 1 due to strength of schedule. They have played an easier schedule and would have the same record if I am not mistaken. We would have the number 2 and I would be estatic because we get to trade down and everyone can shut the hell up about Reggie Bush.

No, as noted in my post, they have played a harder schedule. Their opponents have won 114 games whereas ours have won 112 games. While 3 games is not something that couldn't be overcome in the final weeks, up through Week 14, the Texans strength-of-schedule is easier than the 49ers.

bpergrem3
12-12-2005, 07:56 AM
Houston - 111
GB - 113
SF - 113
Jets - 120

I gave both GB and the Jets a win since they have both Atlanta and New Orleans on their schedule.

infantrycak
12-12-2005, 08:39 AM
John McClain just said in a two team tie, the 1st tie breaker is head up results and strength of schedule starts with 3 or more tied teams. That wasn't what I understood at all, but FWIW.

tulexan
12-12-2005, 09:09 AM
That is wrong. The first tie-breaker is strength of schedule. Head to head is used for playoff seeds.

nunusguy
12-12-2005, 09:20 AM
Its SOS first: the weaker the W-L % of your opponents aggregate records, the higher you pick. If multiple teams have identical SOS, its a coin flip. Those are the rules for Draft order.

GanadoUHCoog
12-12-2005, 02:09 PM
thanks Jets and Packers.

Although I don't think we need Bush, but we can parlee that #1 into a really good package deal from somebody..

NinerPheen
12-12-2005, 02:31 PM
Niners are gonna take it dude. Houston vs San Francisco, Reggie Bowl, loser wins.

tulexan
12-12-2005, 02:34 PM
No the Texans will get it regardless of the outcome most likely. Our strength of schedule is weaker than the Niners.

NinerPheen
12-12-2005, 02:38 PM
I know its weaker, as of right now its 2 games weaker. That can change a lot in the next 3 weeks and you cant count you guys out of the Arizona game. GO TEXANS!!!!

nunusguy
12-13-2005, 11:48 AM
Leading like in we have a weaker SOS vs. the 49ers, which would be the
tie-breaker for Draft purposes. The change came after we played the 4
win Titans and SF played the 11 win Seahawks over the weekend. This
is a dynamic parameter which changes after each weeks games.
If we win no more than 1 game, we're guaranteed of top 2, but if we
win out (which I think is entirely possible), we have no assurances of drafting
even in top 10.
http://www.ourlads.com/DraftSequence.html

David's Busted Carr
12-13-2005, 01:28 PM
I heard that week 17 vs. SF might be a completely meaningless game. If the Texans lose this week to Arizona and next week to Jacksonville they will already have the #1 pick locked up even if they beat SF in week 17. The tiebreaker is not head to head, but based on opponents W-L or something like that (similar to the way they do the BCS in college). And apparently the Texans have the advantage in that. So even if we beat SF and both finish 2-14 we'll still get the #1 pick.

Is this accurate? Does anyone know for sure?

Blake
12-13-2005, 01:34 PM
.... if both teams lose until they play eachother, then depending on the strength of schedule, it COULD be a meaningless game.

You have to wait until the last week, to find out the real strength of schedule.

TigerBait
12-13-2005, 02:01 PM
It soley depends on Arizona and St. Louis, considering they are the only teams on the two schedules that are not in common; assuming that we lose to the Cardinals and the 49ers lose to the Rams.

Arizona plays the Eagles and Colts after us. Philly is a dangerous game because Arizona might be able to get a win.

St. Louis plays the Eagles next week, and then the Cowboys after the 49ers. I don't see them winning either of those.

As of right now the Texans would win the tie breaker, they have the easier schedule at a combined 97-72 vs. 99-70 for the 49ers

Right now the remaining opponents record for both teams is 15-24, so as long as Arizona does not win both of its last games, considering we have a easier schedule by two games, then we should undoubtedly have the #1 pick.

Sarg01
12-13-2005, 02:05 PM
Here's who to root for Week 15! Selections are based on improving the strength of schedule for the 2-11 and 3-10 teams, thus improving the Texans potential draft standing against them while still allowing us to put some wins on the table.

Bucs over Pats - gain one on everyone except the Saints. Gain 2 on them :)
Giants over Chiefs - gain one on Niners, Saints
Broncos over Bills - gain one on Jets
Texans over Cardinals - Because! Also, gain one on Niners
Seahawks over Titans - gain one on Niners, hold even with Pack, lose one on others (if Titans win, we lose TWO on everyone except Niners where we lose one) :(
Chargers over Colts - gain one on Jets
Saints over Panthers - improve Saints record, gain one on Jets/Pack
Vikings over Steelers - gain one on Saints, gain two on Pack
Eagles over Rams - gain one on Niners, Pack
Niners over Jaguars - improve Niners record, but lose one on everybody
Raiders over Browns - gain one on Jets
Lions over Bengals - gain one on Saints, two on Pack
Cowboys over Redskins - gain one on Niners any way you slice it, but this is thanks for Dallas beating the Chiefs last week and giving us the SOS lead on SF :)
Bears over Falcons - gain one on Niners, Saints, two on Pack
Packers over Ravens - improve Pack record, gain one on Saints

We really take a bath when the AFC South teams win. Maybe Indy will let up against the Bolts now that they've got homefield.

beerlover
12-13-2005, 02:07 PM
I'm under the impression that if you have only two teams left with the worse records that season in the NFL & if they meet head to head the winner of that game trumps the winning SOS % of either team. this applys only to the worst two teams, if three or more teams are involved then it reverts back to SOS %. all picks after the top two are decided by SOS %.:twocents:

should also add this does not apply to the winner of the Superbowl as they always have the last pick!

Johnny Utah
12-13-2005, 03:10 PM
Leading like in we have a weaker SOS vs. the 49ers, which would be the
tie-breaker for Draft purposes. The change came after we played the 4
win Titans and SF played the 11 win Seahawks over the weekend. This
is a dynamic parameter which changes after each weeks games.
If we win no more than 1 game, we're guaranteed of top 2, but if we
win out (which I think is entirely possible), we have no assurances of drafting
even in top 10.
http://www.ourlads.com/DraftSequence.html

This would officially be the worst feeling season of all time to go through all this and end up with a pick out of the top 10.

Kaiser Toro
12-13-2005, 03:30 PM
TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING
If two or more clubs are tied in the selection order, the strength-of-schedule tie breaker is applied, subject to the following exceptions for playoff clubs:

1. The Super Bowl winner is last and the Super Bowl loser next-to-last.
2. Any non-Super Bowl playoff club involved in a tie shall be assigned priority within its segment below that of non-playoff clubs and in the order that the playoff clubs exited from the playoffs. Thus, within a tied segment a playoff club that loses in the Wild-Card game will have priority over a playoff club that loses in the Divisional playoff game, which in turn will have priority over a club that loses in the Conference Championship game. If two tied clubs exited the playoffs in the same round, the tie is broken by strength of schedule.

If any ties cannot be broken by strength of schedule, the divisional or conference tie breakers, whichever are applicable, are applied. Any ties that still exist are broken by a coin flip.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers

Sarg01
12-13-2005, 03:41 PM
This would officially be the worst feeling season of all time to go through all this and end up with a pick out of the top 10.

While possible, it is highly unlikely that only one of the 7 4-win teams win another game this year. Cleveland and Oakland play each other next week. Only one can lose, therefore the mathematically lowest possible pick the Texans can have is 11. You have to go through a lot of hoops to get there.

Cleveland has to win both Week 15 (Oakland) and 17 (Baltimore), Green Bay has to beat Baltimore, the Jets need to beat Buffalo, New Orleans needs to beat Detroit, the Texans have to win out and all 4-win or less teams except San Fran have to lose out. For every one of those conditions that doesn't happen, the Texans lowest possible pick goes up.

P.S. In sort of an eerie coincidence, that happens to be the Texans BEST case scenario if they win only two more games. If all that happens as written except that the Texans lose Week 17 vs. San Fran, we'd finish with no worse than the #2 pick and possibly the #1 based on strength of schedule.

MorKnolle
12-13-2005, 03:42 PM
NFL.com specifically says that ties between two teams are decided by head to head for playoff seedings, but the draft order is strictly on strength of schedule. I don't have the specific link for it but it is on their website and people have posted it on the discussion boards before. If we beat the 49ers and both teams have 2 wins, it completely depends on strength of schedule. At the moment we have the weaker schedule (by 2 games) and would have the #1 pick but that can easily change in the next three weeks.

tulexan
12-13-2005, 04:14 PM
head to head is for playoffs
strength of schedule is for draft
if strength of schedule is the same then there is a coin flip

edo783
12-13-2005, 07:42 PM
If strength of schedule is the same then there is a coin flip

Our luck they would use a two headed coin and we would lose the flip.

Kaiser Toro
12-13-2005, 10:35 PM
NFL.com specifically says that ties between two teams are decided by head to head for playoff seedings, but the draft order is strictly on strength of schedule. I don't have the specific link for it but it is on their website and people have posted it on the discussion boards before. If we beat the 49ers and both teams have 2 wins, it completely depends on strength of schedule. At the moment we have the weaker schedule (by 2 games) and would have the #1 pick but that can easily change in the next three weeks.

The link is on this thread under post #20.

MorKnolle
12-13-2005, 10:49 PM
The link is on this thread under post #20.

Thanks Kaiser, to everyone else who keeps bringing the issue up, go check out the website.