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View Full Version : Draft options if we have the #1 pick


MorKnolle
12-09-2005, 12:24 AM
Just wanted to post this real quick before going to bed so I can have some feedback in the morning. Assuming we get the #1 pick in the draft, we have two basic options to choose from:

1) Draft Reggie Bush.
2) Trade Down.

Many people on this board want us to draft Reggie Bush, I do not feel that would be our best option, but it wouldn't be the end of the world to me either. Currently, the Jets, Packers, and 49ers are tied at 2-10. The Jets have looked horrible and have so many injuries on offense, so I really don't see them winning another game, so if we end up with the #1 pick, the Jets will almost for sure get the #2, and they are definitely interested in Reggie Bush. Luckily, the 49ers will probably be at #3 and they are also interested in Bush, so this puts us in a nifty little position of getting to take offers from teams. Even if we don't want to take Bush, we have to pretend to be interested to keep the trade value up. According to draft value charts, the #1 overall is worth slightly less (3000 pts.) than the #2 (2600 pts.) and #34 (560 pts.) put together (3160 pts.), which would be the Jets picks, but since they are so interested in Bush they may be willing to make that trade, so we could move down one spot and add the second pick in the second round as well, not a bad deal, and if the Jets aren't interested I'm sure the 49ers would give us their 1st (2200 pts.) and 2nd (550 pts.) rounders, and likely their third rounder (255 pts.) for a total 3005 pts, about even with the #1 overall value, but they get their man in Bush and know that if they can't trade up either we or the Jets will take him and there's no chance of him falling so they might be willing to spend a little more to get him. With that we could move down two spots and potentially pick up the third pick of the second and third rounds, also not bad as we could get just about anyone else we wanted (Jets would likely take Leinart if Pennington's health is still in question and we don't need him anyways) and have two extra very good picks to fill holes, or we could continue to trade down from there if we feel our top want (let's say my personal favorite choice Eric Winston) could be picked later (let's say we expect he'll fall to #8), we could likely trade #3 for #8, #40, and either their third round pick (#72) this year or a future 2nd rounder. For this example I'll say we pick up their second rounder for next year, leaving us with #8 (from new team), #33 (ours), #35 (from 49ers), #40 (from new team), #65 (ours), #67 (from 49ers), Saints 3rd rounder for this year plus an extra 2nd rounder for next year = one 1st, three high 2nds, and three high 3rds all on the first day of the draft, which we could fill some serious needs with.

Another option on trading down would be if we wanted to add some veteran defensive help. If we traded with the Jets, we could send them #1 likely for #2, John Abraham (49.5 sacks in 69 career games: nice DE in a 4-3 or OLB in 3-4) and either this year's third rounder or next years second rounder, maybe both. If we traded with the 49ers, we could send them #1 likely for #3, Julian Peterson (very good OLB), and a third rounder. As in the above example, if the 49ers trade worked out, we could trade down from there to the #8, which would mean we trade the #1 and end up with #8 (from new team), #33 (ours), #40 (from new team), #65 (ours), #67 (from 49ers), Saints 3rd rounder, and Julian Peterson = one 1st, two high 2nds, three high 3rds and a nice, young OLB.

Keep in mind all of this is speculative, we don't know for sure where we will end up in the draft or where these other teams will be and whether or not they'd agree to these trades, although they are approximately even in value according to the draft value chart. I chose the Jets and 49ers because they are both interested in Reggie Bush, will have high picks, and have a defensive player that could be of interest to us that they might be willing to trade to get Bush. Just thought I'd toss these ideas out so people can see what we could possibly get in exchange for passing on Reggie Bush and trading down. Any comments or other ideas? (Please keep the comments relatively serious, I'm trying to stimulate a serious thought process here) With that, I am going to bed and look forward to seeing what you people think in the morning.

Big B Texan Fan
12-09-2005, 01:51 AM
With all the buzz surrounding this #1 pick, I actually hope we lose out on it and hold the #2. Think about it. If we lose it, it'll probably be to the 49er's in the week 17 match-up better known as the Reggie Bush Bowl. Then we get to work.

The 49er's will more than likley take Bush as long as they are financially set to have 2 #1 pix 2 years in a row. With the cap going to 90 million plus that shouldn't be a problem. Not to mention the whole CA thing and the fact that they chose a QB with last years pick.

Then we start working the pick with Bush out of the way with suitors who like to aquire the services of Leinert. Several teams come to mind like the Titans (Norm Chow), Jets, Cards, Fins to name a few of the sucky teams. There are other good playoff contending teams that may interested as well such as the Bears (Rex cannot stay healthy), Cowboys, Bucs (the recievers are already used to a left handed ball coming @ them) etc......

Then once we make the trade with one of the sucky teams I believe it would benefit us to trade down one more time.

The way this don't work is if the Jets have the #1 pick cuz they're taking Leinert. Bartering a top pick with an elite QB available is alot easier and will garner more in return than that of a RB.

texasguy346
12-09-2005, 02:03 AM
Why would you want the #2 pick? If you had the #1 pick you could hear trade offers from both teams interested in Leinart or Bush. If you only have the #2 pick then that takes away from the number of teams interested in trading up to acquire your pick. That makes it harder to make teams compete against one another in hopes that one team will offer a very generous deal. Think of it this way.

If you have the Lions on the phone on Draft day, who have their eye on Matt Leinart, offering a very good deal (if taken we draft closer to 10 or so) then you can turn to say the NY Jets, who might have a strong interest in acquiring the #1 pick to be sure that they get Bush to replace an aging Martin, and tell them what Detroit is offering (maybe even stretch the truth a little) and see if they take the bait and make a better offer. You end up with a pick that's still in the top 5 (maybe even the # 2 or 3) and a better deal with more draft picks. It's a win-win.

infantrycak
12-09-2005, 09:26 AM
My basic preference is #1--trade down if you can get fair chart type value or better for the pick (too many options to name here specifically, but in other words if you are getting good value like the Titans did from the Texans or San Diego from the Giants, then do it), if not, #2-- don't just become a cheap date and trade for anything, stay at #1 and take Bush. Sure I have some worries about Bush, but he is the best player in the draft and there are concerns about everyone else as well--Leinert has a bad knee and a couple surgeries, Ferguson can only play LT and may have weight issues, etc. I will make comments when people act like Bush is god or DD is scum, but Bush would be the best pick at #1.

TheOgre
12-09-2005, 11:04 AM
My basic preference is #1--trade down if you can get fair chart type value or better for the pick (too many options to name here specifically, but in other words if you are getting good value like the Titans did from the Texans or San Diego from the Giants, then do it), if not, #2-- don't just become a cheap date and trade for anything, stay at #1 and take Bush. Sure I have some worries about Bush, but he is the best player in the draft and there are concerns about everyone else as well--Leinert has a bad knee and a couple surgeries, Ferguson can only play LT and may have weight issues, etc. I will make comments when people act like Bush is god or DD is scum, but Bush would be the best pick at #1.

That is basically my take. I just have a feeling that one of the teams below us would package something nice to grab Bush.

Big B Texan Fan
12-09-2005, 12:32 PM
The reason for my fodder is that I believe we should really trade down (twice) and with Bush out of the way then it's pretty much a guarantee. If he's still there we may draft him either under fan pressure, new coach-ittis, or we really think he'd make an immediate impact (which he probably will).

Has anyone done the math yet on where we'd be picking if we win one more and the Niner's, Jets, and Packers lose out. It goes off of strength of schedule. We had the toughest one for the first 8-10 weeks but then it becomes the softest to finish out.

Big B Texan Fan
12-09-2005, 12:39 PM
Has anyone done the math yet on where we'd be picking if we win one more and the Niner's, Jets, and Packers lose out. It goes off of strength of schedule. We had the toughest one for the first 8-10 weeks but then it becomes the softest to finish out.
I just saw the post by Texans Thrill with the %'s. Thanx

Trapped
12-10-2005, 12:35 AM
If we are granted number 1,I like the John Abraham and Number 2 overall pick.

Then with the number two, their might be suitors for Lienert also. Then we trade down to say The lions. and pick up their first and 2nd, or two the Titans and pick up their first and Ben Troupe.

Then if were still in the top 5-6, we should trade that down to number 10 with whomever and pick up Eric Winston, A.J Hawk. If we stuck at 5, we should draft DE Mario WIlliams. Mario Williams is a clone of Peppers, put him at LE and Abraham at RE, all of a sudden we have a pass rush. :drool:

So i suggest trading down several times. I know this would never happen because or salary and all, but can a brother dream.

But first things first, we gotta lose.

MorKnolle
12-10-2005, 12:49 AM
If we are granted number 1,I like the John Abraham and Number 2 overall pick.

Then with the number two, their might be suitors for Lienert also. Then we trade down to say The lions. and pick up their first and 2nd, or two the Titans and pick up their first and Ben Troupe.

Then if were still in the top 5-6, we should trade that down to number 10 with whomever and pick up Eric Winston. If we stuck at 5, we should draft DE Mario WIlliams. Mario Williams is a clone of Peppers, put him at LE and Abraham at RE, all of a sudden we have a pass rush. :drool:

So i suggest trading down several times.

But first things first, we gotta lose.

I like some of your ideas. I'm not sure how far down in the draft Winston will fall, some people on here have speculated all the way to #20, others around #6, so we'll have to see how the combine and all that go. The Lions will probably be far enough down in the draft that we could switch first rounders and pick up this year's 2nd rounder and probably next year's 2nd rounder (that would likely be pretty even on the chart point values plus if they really want Leinart they'll be willing to spend a little). The Saints, Dolphins, Lions, Ravens, and Cardinals will all definitely be looking for a new QB too and might be good trade candidates for Leinart, and they will all have pretty high picks. Oakland could possibly want a QB if they are finally through with Kerry Collins and Tuiasosopo doesn't work out, and if Pennington isn't going to recover the Jets would likely look for Leinart over Bush. The Jets and 49ers would be the primary candidates to trade up for Bush, and the Packers and Browns might join in the hunt. If we trade with the Titans, we better get more than Ben Troupe in the deal. Troupe is a good TE but I'm not sure how much of an upgrade he is over our current guys, and TEs have very little trade value so if we were to target Troupe we'd need to pick up this year's 2nd rounder from them too, if not more. Drafting Mario Williams would be a decent option too, although bringing him and Abraham in would require we switch to a 4-3 so they can both play DE, but that would definitely not be a bad situation.

Trapped
12-10-2005, 01:08 AM
i think we have too much commitment in the defensive front 7 we long term salaries that if we add on to those positions it's a bad idea. Morlon, Wong, Babin, T.Johnson, Robaire, G.Walker, and Payne will still probably be our starters just because we don't want to add on dead cap.

So i actually see us drafting Reggie Bush, and Drafting the best o-lineman available in the 2nd round which is a high pick.

Big B Texan Fan
12-10-2005, 11:48 AM
i think we have too much commitment in the defensive front 7 we long term salaries that if we add on to those positions it's a bad idea. Morlon, Wong, Babin, T.Johnson, Robaire, G.Walker, and Payne will still probably be our starters just because we don't want to add on dead cap.

So i actually see us drafting Reggie Bush, and Drafting the best o-lineman available in the 2nd round which is a high pick.
Good call on the big salaries. Something to ponder. If we get a new coach we're probably moving to a 4-3.

jacquescas
12-10-2005, 01:17 PM
I really see Bush coming here. the name in Houston is already famous, he is gonna be the Heisman trophy winner, the last heisman winner to come from USC drafted number 1 ended up pretty good in Palmer and with DD they could destroy a team on the ground.

Any offensive line help drafted would be at least 2 years out, espeically the left tackles.

Bush will fill the seats, take tons of pressure off Carr

MorKnolle
12-10-2005, 03:05 PM
Good call on the big salaries. Something to ponder. If we get a new coach we're probably moving to a 4-3.

Switching to a 4-3 depends entirely on which coach we bring in. Unforunately our defense is built for a 3-4 right now and we have four big DL that are signed to big contracts and we probably could not really get rid of, so switching to a 4-3 would leave two of them on the bench (probably start Gary Walker and Robaire Smith at DT) and have Payne (with his large contract) and Travis Johnson (pretty big contract and young) rotate in off the bench. We might be forced to stay in a 3-4 for a year or two as our primary defensive set, although if we do have the personnel to run some 4-3 as well I wouldn't mind seeing a mix of the two, as long as we bring pressure with the 3-4.

I really see Bush coming here. the name in Houston is already famous, he is gonna be the Heisman trophy winner, the last heisman winner to come from USC drafted number 1 ended up pretty good in Palmer and with DD they could destroy a team on the ground.

Any offensive line help drafted would be at least 2 years out, espeically the left tackles.

Bush will fill the seats, take tons of pressure off Carr

Bush might help sell some tickets but I think tickets will sell anyways as long as some kind of improvement is seen. I don't see how bringing in Bush really takes any pressure off of Carr as teams will still load the box and bring heavy blitzes until the offensive line proves they can block for him and our new OC proves that he has plays that will beat the pressure. We can help fix the line in the draft and waiting until the second round and picking up less talented OL than we can find in the first round is not the best way to help Carr.

BuffSoldier
12-10-2005, 04:48 PM
What I think of when I think of the first pick, is the 2004 NFL draft with Eli Manning. Someone is gunna want to trade up for Reggie and if that is the case, we have a bench mark that was set by the Giants and Chargers.The Giants gave up, if im not mistaken, the third from 2004 and their 2005 first rounder.

Now Im not counting on anyone being horrible next year, because anyone can make a turnaround. But if we trade down to #3 with SanFran, we may be set up with a top 5 pick for next year right off the bat.

With that pick we can pick up D. Ferguson and still have 3 third round picks to sure up the offensive line. Then for all the Carr haters, if Carr stil doesnt produce well next season behind a solid o-line we have 2 first round picks, one of which could be used to select Brady Quinn, or VY should he decide to stay.

Look at the possibilities of that

Round 1: Ferguson, franchise LT

Round 2: Leonard Pope or Max Gean-Miles

Then we still would have 3 third round picks, if we wanted, we would probably be able to trade back up into the second round and pick Leonard Pope and a great OG. With that, I think we would have all the peices in place to have a great offense. Franchise QB,LT, and WR. 1000 yard rusher. Receiving and blocking TE, solid o-line depth.

Oh and then 2 first rounders next year to sure up the defense, complete turnaround in 2 yrs if we play our cards right. Just my opinion.

Trapped
12-10-2005, 06:21 PM
I really hope we get the number 1 overall. That would be embarrasing to have 2 number 1's in a 5 year span, but o well.

This year i feel we can trade down twice and get good value to fill up alot of holes. Oline, TE, LB(not those tweeners, a real lb like Hawk or Vilma), S, and 2nd CB are probably our biggest needs.

supertankman
12-10-2005, 07:11 PM
I guess the real question is, will a OL bring instant impact in changing this teams offense?

Or will adding another superstar like bush make more of a impact, its amazing how one player can make a huge difference.

MorKnolle
12-10-2005, 07:47 PM
I guess the real question is, will a OL bring instant impact in changing this teams offense?

Or will adding another superstar like bush make more of a impact, its amazing how one player can make a huge difference.

Good teams aren't built on trying to find a pick that is going to make the best instant impact on the team. That's how college teams are built because people will only stay around for four years at the most, but in the NFL you have to think of the bigger picture and draft what you feel will be the best for your team for multiple years in the future.