View Full Version : Rookie Expectations
07-30-2004, 02:08 PM
I was at work and i was wondering :hmmm: ...what did i think the texans rookies where gonna produce? Well, i thought that Jason Babin would be able to step right into the role and put up relativley large numbers in his first year. i figure hell put up 9-11 sacks, 20 tfl, 120 tackles, and 2 ints. :headbang: Rock on Jason! Then i was thinking about Dunta Robinson. I think hell have a little harder time getting used to the NFL. I predict that hell have 4 ints(1 for a TD), 11 passes defended, 26 tackles, and 1 sack(Capers likes the way he is able to blitz).
I just wanted to know what other folks thought. I cant wait for Training Camp Reports! :popcorn:
07-30-2004, 02:11 PM
Seems a little high to me.
I can see jason getting 5-7 sacks. below 80 tackles and an Int. if he is lucky. (He IS a rookie, and we do have 4 LB's running around.)
Dunta 2 ints. 2 sacks. (CB is hard for a rook. But 2 ints would still be impressive.)
07-30-2004, 02:15 PM
My deal with rookies as far as their expectations are the guys drafted in the later rounds.
The guys drafted high (1st round) are fairly well known about their abilities and you hear a lot about them. I like to watch/read about the guys drafted in the later rounds.
I'm looking foward to watching Duff, Earl, and Sloan Thomas more so in training camp because we all know we'll get to see Babin and Robinson when the season rolls around.
With that being said:
Babin - 100 tackles, 6 Forced Fumbles, 2 Fumble Recoveries, 6 sacks.
Robinson - 40 tackles, 8 Pass Defended, 3 INT (1 for TD).
07-30-2004, 02:20 PM
I cant wait to see who emerges from the pack for the 4th WR slot. Armstrong? Starling? Thomas? I like what i have seen from Sloane Thomas and Kendrick Starling. Starling, to me looks like he has HUGE potential. Good size, Excellent speed, and good hands. id like to see what both Thomas & Starling can do during the pre-season.
07-30-2004, 02:25 PM
I'm hoping Thomas makes it as KR and/or PR. He was overshadowed at Texas with Williams and the other guy. He has good speed and pretty decent hands. I went to high school with him.
07-30-2004, 02:27 PM
I cant wait to see who emerges from the pack for the 4th WR slot. Armstrong? Starling? Thomas?The coaching staff loves Armstrong...
6-1/2 sacks for Babin
3 to 4 INTs for D-Rob
07-30-2004, 02:29 PM
i know but how is his speed? How is his size?
07-30-2004, 02:30 PM
i know but how is his speed? How is his size?His size is good and so is his speed. He was a star in the CFL.
PRO: Strong, athletic receiver with great hands and leaping ability…signed with Texans as a free agent on 1/7/03…played in 28 games over two seasons in the Canadian Football League (CFL) with the Saskatchewan Roughriders.From his bio on this site
07-30-2004, 02:35 PM
i know but how is his speed? How is his size?
Armstrong is 6'2" 196 lbs--don't know his speed, but it is more like Gaffney than AJ and Bradford. Capers has says he makes great plays in traffic. Sounds like a good critical 1st down/red-zone receiver.
07-30-2004, 02:41 PM
sounds very nice to me
07-30-2004, 02:57 PM
As far as Babin goes I see him getting 5 or 6 sacks, and around 75 or 80 tackles. He might get a fumble recovery or two, but since coverage will be new to him I dont see him getting any picks. I think Babin's real value will be seen in the stats Wong gets playing on the other side. He'll get more sacks than he has the past two years. Robinson will take some time to adjust, but I see him getting 2 or 3 picks, and perhaps 20 to 25 passes defensed. I think he'll be an excellent tackler, so I think he could be up in the 40's if he stays healthy and starts all year long. Duff will have a punt or kick return for a TD by seasons end. Had to at least mention one of the golden domers.
07-30-2004, 03:02 PM
Personally, i hope Glenn Earl takes the job from Eric Brown. They said that Glenn is about 85-90% recovered. I think his 85-90% would be better than Eric Brown's 100%, but thats probably just me.
07-30-2004, 03:12 PM
I think Eric Brown is a good player. He is a hard hitter. Ive seen him lay the hat, and thats what I likes. :)
07-30-2004, 03:18 PM
i agree. I enjoy seeing someone getting laid out. Thats why i wanna see Earl play. He was dubbed the most ferocious hitter in college football.
07-30-2004, 03:27 PM
I think the comments from Casserly and the Texans are that there is a strong possibility that Earl will be PUPed. For that reason I'm wondering how Lord works out.
07-30-2004, 03:55 PM
I think Babin will have production along the lines of Posey did his only season here, as in single-digit sacks and good QB pressure. Babin ought to be much better against the run than Posey was though. I don't look for big sack numbers from a rookie learning a new position. Most of the great OLB's in 3-4's through the years had low sack numbers their rookie season since they are all guys who were undersized ends in College. It's going to take a full year to lean his new position.
07-30-2004, 04:16 PM
But V, what about Terrell Suggs? I think that Jason Babin is faster, and stronger than Suggs. He also had more total sacks than Suggs had in college(38-34), so it would seem logical to me that Babin SHOULD have a better season than Suggs did.
07-30-2004, 04:39 PM
I don't know if Jason Babin will be able to put up Terrell Suggs like numbers. He had 12 sacks, 1 int, and 6 forced fumbles. But he had only 27 tackles (8 assists). If Jason Babin is able to put up these numbers in his rookie season, I will be a very happy fan. :) However he should make a lot more tackles, atleast 40-50, but 12 sacks and 6 forced fumbles are very hard to get.
07-30-2004, 05:09 PM
I think that Jason Babin is faster, and stronger than Suggs. He also had more total sacks than Suggs had in college(38-34), so it would seem logical to me that Babin SHOULD have a better season than Suggs did.Suggs had the benefit of having Peter Bolware and Ray Lewis in the same LB corps. And if you are talking about total production, Suggs may have the best sack per play in league history for a single season. Suggs got 12 sacks as a limited pass rusher. The only time Suggs was on the field was in obvious passing situations. If Babin does have more sacks, I still think Suggs rookie season was more productive getting limited snaps...
07-30-2004, 05:11 PM
i'm not going to make any predictions as to our rookies's productiveness...all i'm going to point out is this...this past year dunta only had 1 int the whole season...so keep that in mind when you try to say he's going to have 4+ ints
07-30-2004, 05:13 PM
I wasnt stating that he will have better "stats per play". I was saying that he will be better suited for the transition from DE to OLB. He seems to have better pass-rush skills as well. And will have a better OVERALL season.
07-30-2004, 05:15 PM
But V, what about Terrell Suggs? I think that Jason Babin is faster, and stronger than Suggs. He also had more total sacks than Suggs had in college(38-34), so it would seem logical to me that Babin SHOULD have a better season than Suggs did.Suggs had an unusual year and was a situational pass rusher and really never played full time since he wasn't good enough to be a full time starter last year. As far as sacks go he is the exception and not the norm. Suggs didn't do too well against the run and was not good in coverage either. Babin should have a better all-round game than Suggs (because Babin was better against the run at WMU) but I would not expect him to get to the passer as much.
07-30-2004, 05:17 PM
I said that he'd have 4 ints because he will get picked on and i think that he'll suprise alot of teams. He had only 1 pick because in college teams liked to throw the other way.
07-30-2004, 05:17 PM
He seems to have better pass-rush skills as well. And will have a better OVERALL season.Suggs is a heck of a pass rusher, so I doubt Babin has better pass rushing skills then him but Babin is probably a better all around player b/c Suggs cant stop the run. Babin may have a better overall rookie season but Suggs' rookie season will probably be more productive considering the plays he got.....
07-30-2004, 05:30 PM
robinson will get around 3-4 picks and maybe 40-47 tackles due to his speed and capers will blitz him often for a cornerback. babins will get 5-7 sacks and around 65-75 tackles, basiclly the same numbers as wong did but he will turn into a monster his second year.
07-30-2004, 05:52 PM
Suggs had the benefit of having Peter Bolware and Ray Lewis in the same LB corps. And if you are talking about total production, Suggs may have the best sack per play in league history for a single season. Suggs got 12 sacks as a limited pass rusher. The only time Suggs was on the field was in obvious passing situations. If Babin does have more sacks, I still think Suggs rookie season was more productive getting limited snaps...
Suggs had the perfect situation to get sack numbers. He had great players around him (specifically Bouleware at the other DE/OLB) plus he had the ADVANTAGE of not having to be on the field for too many plays, keeping his legs fresh. Isn't that why they rotate D-linemen? Being a situational rusher is a perfect situation if you only care about one thing - sacks.
I hope that Babin is a lot more productive than Suggs and I won't be measuring it purely on sacks.
Often sacks result from the efforts of others. For example, you need a good push from the DTs and good containment from the other from the OLB/DE. Often, a great play by one player results in a sack by someone else.
07-30-2004, 05:56 PM
Instead of a prediction, how about a statement of what would be a good bench mark:
A great year for Robinson would be to match Terence Newman's (a guy taken 5 spots above him) performance: 66 tackles, 4 INT's & 17 passes defensed.
Most important in that line up IMO is having 15+ passes defensed. He is a rookie CB so he is going to get picked on. If he isn't getting passes defensed numbers in that range it may very well mean he is struggling. Demarcus Faggins defensed 7 passes last year playing minimal time in 7 games and starting for one half of another.
For Babin, seems to me the benchmark should be set at matching Wong's performance--he is a solid, well balanced LB effective in QB pressure, run D and coverage. Wong 2003: 62 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble and 11 passes defensed.
What that doesn't show is how often Wong had QB hurries, which was quite often. IF the front 3 can return to even 2002 form much less better due to the addition of Smith some of those QB hurries should turn into sacks such as in 2002 when Wong had 5.5 sacks. Seems to me a great rookie season from Babin would be 60+ tackles, 6+ sacks, 1 forced fumble and 10+ passes defensed. If that happens then big predictions can be made for next year.
Give these rookies some time before predicting pro-bowl years from them.
07-30-2004, 08:03 PM
babin- 7 sacks 79 tackles 16 tfl
robinson- 41 tackles 2 int
and im not impressed by brown. great hitter but thats about it. hope earl becomes the starter in 2005.
hollings-105 carries 441 yards 4.2 average 2 tds
25 receptions 212 yards 2 tds
(becomes "the sweeper" and a good threat on screens)
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