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View Full Version : This Sunday will determine who picks first


humbleone
12-05-2005, 12:55 PM
Regardless of where you stand on what we should do with the first pick, it is hard to argue that having it would be a good place to start from in order to help turn this club around.

This is the key week for all of that IMO since we will probably finish 2-14 and:

(1) Green Bay gets Detroit in GB (very winnable if Farve is breathing) after that, they are probably done for games they can win so best case they are 3-13, worst case 2-14
(2) The Jets are the odds on favorite at this point for the number one pick IMO and if they have it, they will take Bush so having the "2" will provide a lot less trade material to work with. However, the Jets get Oakland at home Sunday (Winnable). After that, the only W possible is Buffalo which the Jets get at home as well or a long shot at Miami.
(3) San Francisco should not be a threat since we play them in SF at the end of the year and McNair is clearly determined to make no coaching changes (no matter what comes) until the season which should stack the deck in favor of SF. :texflag:

swtbound07
12-05-2005, 12:59 PM
i would have to believe that we are the odds on favorite for the 1 pick

BigBull17
12-05-2005, 01:22 PM
Regardless of where you stand on what we should do with the first pick, it is hard to argue that having it would be a good place to start from in order to help turn this club around.

This is the key week for all of that IMO since we will probably finish 2-14 and:

(1) Green Bay gets Detroit in GB (very winnable if Farve is breathing) after that, they are probably done for games they can win so best case they are 3-13, worst case 2-14
(2) The Jets are the odds on favorite at this point for the number one pick IMO and if they have it, they will take Bush so having the "2" will provide a lot less trade material to work with. However, the Jets get Oakland at home Sunday (Winnable). After that, the only W possible is Buffalo which the Jets get at home as well or a long shot at Miami.
(3) San Francisco should not be a threat since we play them in SF at the end of the year and McNair is clearly determined to make no coaching changes (no matter what comes) until the season which should stack the deck in favor of SF. :texflag:

I dont see the Jets passing on Lienart.

Honch Delgado
12-05-2005, 01:41 PM
We could pull off upsets this week and against Jacksonville. I think it comes down to the last game of the season between us and San Fran and SF ends up picking #1.

Blake
12-05-2005, 02:03 PM
With Carr, Andre, and Davis, we have a good chance to win our last 3 games.

Jerry
12-05-2005, 02:23 PM
Not with our coaching staff...

eriadoc
12-05-2005, 03:42 PM
I dont see the Jets passing on Lienart.

It depends on what they think the long-term prospects are for Pennington after his rehab, I would think. I could see them trying to sign a guy like Volek for a year or two, or Josh McCown, or trading for Rivers or something similar, and drafting Bush.

compy75
12-05-2005, 03:51 PM
As I am in New York, the word out of all the NYC newspaper is the team's desire for Reggie Bush if there is a choice in the matter. Evidentally, team officials are very high on Phillip Rivers, so I would expect them to make a move in that respect and bring in a WR. In NY, you always have to compete so the Jets will retool quickly.

The one thing they have steadily built is a OL, so at the least when Mawae returns they will be steady there.

texasguy346
12-05-2005, 04:06 PM
I'd have to agree that the Jets seem to be our real competition for the #1 pick. I think the Jets have a very legit shot to grab the top pick if they lose all their games, but they'd have to hope for at least one Texans win. I don't think the Jets SOS is as strong as ours, and they'd earn the top pick in the event of a tie.

humbleone
12-05-2005, 06:18 PM
I'd have to agree that the Jets seem to be our real competition for the #1 pick. I think the Jets have a very legit shot to grab the top pick if they lose all their games, but they'd have to hope for at least one Texans win. I don't think the Jets SOS is as strong as ours, and they'd earn the top pick in the event of a tie.

That is along the lines of my thinking...we need the Jets to win one more IMO because the only thing the Texans have left to screw up this year is losing the number one pick (which they will do automatically if they win more than one game) and will do anyway based on SOS if the Jets don't win one more. So, here's hoping Herm can put together a game plan that puts a W up on the boards over Oakland on Sunday.:texflag:

TheOgre
12-05-2005, 06:32 PM
I have a feeling that either the Jets or Packers will win a game this week. Someone has to win when the Jets and Ravens play later too.

I think if we win 1 game, though, we likely miss out on the 1st overall pick.

Sarg01
12-05-2005, 06:34 PM
I'd have to agree that the Jets seem to be our real competition for the #1 pick. I think the Jets have a very legit shot to grab the top pick if they lose all their games, but they'd have to hope for at least one Texans win. I don't think the Jets SOS is as strong as ours, and they'd earn the top pick in the event of a tie.

Jets have a substantially easier SOS than us. Green Bay and San Fran are very tight. Last time I ran the calcs (last week) Houston and San Fran both had a .545 opponent win record and Green Bay had a .551. Both the 3-win teams (Titans and Saints) have easier SOS and would have the tie-breaks barring a major adjustment.

TheOgre
12-05-2005, 06:56 PM
Both the 3-win teams (Titans and Saints) have easier SOS and would have the tie-breaks barring a major adjustment.

If we tie the Titans, then the only differences in SOS would be based upon them playing Oakland (4-8) and Miami (5-7) vs. us playing Kansas City (8-4) and Buffalo (4-8). They have a 3 game lead in SOS right now. Keep in mind that Kansas City has road games against the Cowboys and Giants as well as home games against the Chargers and Bengals. Stranger things have happened.

Bongo59
12-05-2005, 08:00 PM
As I am in New York, the word out of all the NYC newspaper is the team's desire for Reggie Bush if there is a choice in the matter. Evidentally, team officials are very high on Phillip Rivers, so I would expect them to make a move in that respect and bring in a WR. In NY, you always have to compete so the Jets will retool quickly.

The one thing they have steadily built is a OL, so at the least when Mawae returns they will be steady there.
jets have not really competed since 1982..............their FO is terrible...............they let Jordan go to keep an aged HOF back............not smart............then they sign Chad to a monster deal and bring in an OC that loves the deep ball when Chad pre injury could barely make it 45 yds down the field..................and they trade Moss for Coles.............look at Moss with a bad Brunell...............alot better than Moss with Chad..............everything points to a BAD FO in NY................the NYJ are badly run.

Texans Horror
12-05-2005, 08:18 PM
After two tough losses in a row, it will be hard for the Texans to rebound against any team. It's nice to see them trying to pull out of the spiral, but I don't think it's enough to be able to win them more than a game at this point.

Wharton
12-06-2005, 12:30 AM
With Carr, Andre, and Davis, we have a good chance to win our last 3 games.

Maybe three of our last four, I don't see us beating Jacksonville.

Well, maybe two of our last four, I don't see us beating Tennesse either.

Beating Arizona may be a stretch, too. :hmmm:
Hmmmm, lets get right down to it, if we're lucky, we may be able to beat San Fran. :texflag:
Reality Bites doesn't it! :brickwall

beerlover
12-06-2005, 12:50 PM
Jets have a substantially easier SOS than us. Green Bay and San Fran are very tight. Last time I ran the calcs (last week) Houston and San Fran both had a .545 opponent win record and Green Bay had a .551. Both the 3-win teams (Titans and Saints) have easier SOS and would have the tie-breaks barring a major adjustment.

end of season is still four games out, currently the 49er's & Pack have a .552 sos which is slightly above the Texans .547%. but here is the kicker- the Texans remainging four games are against much weaker opponnents so even if the Texans win another game & none of the other three teams in question win (that would assume the Texans beat the 49er's) the Texans would still hold the lesser strength of schedule & the #1 pick all things remaining equal.

Texans vs............possum's............cards........... ....jags............49'ers
Pack'ers vs...........lions.................ravens......... .....bears..........hawks
Niner's vs.............hawks...............jags........... ......rams...........Texans
Jets vs................raiders...............phins..... ..........pats............bills

MorKnolle
12-06-2005, 12:52 PM
end of season is still four games out, currently the 49er's & Pack have a .552 sos which is slightly above the Texans .547%. but here is the kicker- the Texans remainging four games are against much weaker opponnents so even if the Texans win another game & none of the other three teams in question win (that would assume the Texans beat the 49er's) the Texans would still hold the lesser strength of schedule & the #1 pick all things remaining equal.

Texans vs............possum's............cards........... ....jags............49'ers
Pack'ers vs...........lions.................ravens......... .....bears..........hawks
Niner's vs.............hawks...............jags........... ......rams...........Texans
Jets vs................raiders...............phins..... ..........pats............bills

If the tie is just between the Texans and 49ers, I believe whoever wins the heads-up battle wins the tiebreaker. I may be wrong on that but I believe that is the way it's done between two teams, however if we have more than two teams tied then it probably goes to strength of schedule. Does anyone have a link for this? I might try to look it up later.

Sarg01
12-06-2005, 02:31 PM
If the tie is just between the Texans and 49ers, I believe whoever wins the heads-up battle wins the tiebreaker. I may be wrong on that but I believe that is the way it's done between two teams, however if we have more than two teams tied then it probably goes to strength of schedule. Does anyone have a link for this? I might try to look it up later.

No, for the draft it's strength of schedule as the sole tie-breaker. After that it's coin-flip. Its nowhere near as complicated as divisional or conference rankings.

MorKnolle
12-06-2005, 02:40 PM
No, for the draft it's strength of schedule as the sole tie-breaker. After that it's coin-flip. Its nowhere near as complicated as divisional or conference rankings.

OK, I wasn't sure. Out of curiosity do you have a link for that? I was looking for one earlier on NFL.com but couldn't find one and my computer was flaking out so I gave up looking.

Sarg01
12-06-2005, 02:40 PM
but here is the kicker- the Texans remainging four games are against much weaker opponnents so even if the Texans win another game & none of the other three teams in question win (that would assume the Texans beat the 49er's) the Texans would still hold the lesser strength of schedule & the #1 pick all things remaining equal.


Sorta. What you say is true, all else being equal. However, there's still a quarter of a season to go, and that means the opponents we've already played still have quite a few opportunities to change their SOS. For instance, if the Colts start losing, our SOS eases up. On the flip side, if Tennessee wins out (humor me for a sec, I'm not seriously predicting this) our SOS gets harder.

There's really no way to determine final SOS at this point, there's just too much variability left. We can say however, that Houston, Green Bay and San Fran are currently very tight in SOS and it wouldn't take much to go either way. On the other hand, the Jets and Titans have lower SOS, enough that it MIGHT be overcome if we're lucky. Whereas it would take a miracle to get the tie-break on the Saints.

cdastros
12-06-2005, 02:53 PM
Determining Order of Selection

The team with the lowest winning percentage at the end of the previous season drafts first in the NFL Draft.

The rest of the teams are placed in order from lowest winning percentage to the highest.

The Super Bowl winner drafts last, even if they do not have the highest winning percentage.

The Super Bowl loser drafts next to last.

Strength of schedule for the previous season is the first tie-breaker for teams with the same winning percentage.

Divisional and conference records are the next step in the tie-breaking procedure.

As a last resort, a coin toss is used to determine the order of selection for teams with the same winning percentage.

If a playoff and non-playoff team end the season with the same winning percentage, the non-playoff team selects before the playoff team regardless of strength of schedule.

http://football.about.com/od/miscinformation/a/detdraftorder.htm

MorKnolle
12-06-2005, 03:00 PM
Cool, thanks.

tulexan
12-06-2005, 03:06 PM
I was watching the Niners/Cardinals game on Sunday and I think that the Niners are going to beat us. For a 2-9 team, they still play extremely hard and with a lot of emotion. Alex Smith looks like he is really close to putting it all together too. I think in the first half he was something like 12-13 for 140 yards.

MorKnolle
12-06-2005, 03:22 PM
I was watching the Niners/Cardinals game on Sunday and I think that the Niners are going to beat us. For a 2-9 team, they still play extremely hard and with a lot of emotion. Alex Smith looks like he is really close to putting it all together too. I think in the first half he was something like 12-13 for 140 yards.

I hate to disagree with you, but the Texans also played really hard, especially for a 1-10 team. Alex Smith did have a 66% completion rate but it was against the Cardinals defense (27th in the NFL in opponent's completion %, 28th in scoring, only 18th in passing yards allowed but passing yards will be skewed a bit cause teams generally have leads and run the ball at the end of the game against them) and he threw 3 INTs and 0 TDs. He has even fewer weapons on offense than we do (Frank Gore and Brandon Lloyd are his best RBs and WRs). Look for the 49ers to be big players in the Reggie Bush Sweepstakes this year, they need offensive playmakers more than anyone else except maybe the Jets.

cdastros
12-06-2005, 03:27 PM
Unfortunately, I think the Texans will win the 49er game and the Card's game. :crying:

tulexan
12-06-2005, 03:30 PM
I don't think we are going to beat the Cardinals. We haven't been doing well against the pass lately and they have two monsters as receivers. If Fitzpatrick can put up 300 on us, I don't even want to know what Kurt Warner is going to do.