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powda
08-24-2005, 08:11 PM
progress report.

the life blood of any team is the draft due to their impact on the salary cap and a continueing need to add youthfull talent. how have we done so far?

lets get to the nitty gritty. dissect it. this is a continuation of another thread on a more indepth level. our 2-3 rd round picks could be a lot better. ses has already done a lot of the groundwork for me (in that previous thread with a list of picks). lets try and get a consensus of a players performance so far and then arrange for percentages. this ofcourse is all subjective so we're not going to come to anything definitive...but perhaps we can narrow the margins for error. i'll start and add my reasons for my call as needed.

HIT OR MISS?

1 1 David Carr QB Fresno State (hit)
2 33 Jabar Gaffney WR Florida (hit)
2 50 Chester Pitts G San Diego State (hit)
3 66 Fred Weary G Tennessee (miss)
3 83 Charles Hill NT Maryland (miss---and bad. open water)
4 99 Jonathan Wells RB Ohio State (hit?)
5 136 Jarrod Baxter FB New Mexico (hit...debatable...solid special teams...has started)
5 153 Ramon Walker SS Pittsburgh (miss...?)
6 173 Demarcus Faggins CB Kansas State (hit)
6 190 Howard Green DT Louisiana State (miss)
7 229 Greg White DE Minnesota (miss)
7 261 Ahmad Miller (miss)

2 starters out of 12 = 17%

6 hits...6 misses...4 miss after rd 4 (2nd day of draft)

1 3 Andre Johnson WR Miami (hit)
2 41 Bennie Joppru TE Michigan (miss...could be debatable due to injury?)
3 67 Antwan Peek OLB Cincinnati (hit)
3 75 Seth Wand T N.W. Missouri (hit...has served as a starter for a season even if it dosent translate any farther then that)
3 88 Dave Ragone QB Louisville (hit...drafted to be the backup...did you expect him to unseat carr? still in the maturation process)
4 101 Domanick Davis RB Louisiana State (big hit....best so far)
6 192 Drew Henson QB Michigan (hit...if you can turn a 6 into a 3 you've done something right...even if the player you select with the 3 is a flop...kudos...i'd call this a big hit as well)
6 214 Keith Wright DT Missouri (miss)
7 217 Curry Burns DB Louisville (miss)
7 233 Chance Pearce C Texas A&M (miss...could be debatable...was drafted to be a deep snapper...not a starter)

4 starters out of 10 = 40%

6 hits...4 misses. 3 misses after rd 4 (2nd day of draft)

1 10 Dunta Robinson CB South Carolina (hit)
1 27 Jason Babin OLB Western Michigan (hit)
4 122 Glenn Earl SS Notre Dame (hit)
6 170 Vontez Duff DB Notre Dame (miss)
6 175 Jammal Lord DB Nebraska (miss)
6 200 Charlie Anderson OLB Mississippi (hit)
7 210 Raheem Orr LB Rutgers (miss)
7 211 Sloan Thomas WR Texas (miss)
7 248 B.J. Symons QB Texas Tech (miss?...could be debatable...not drafted to start...still in the maturation process...plagued by injuries)

3 starters out of 9 = 33%

4 hits...5 misses. all 5 misses after the 4th rd (2nd day of draft) this one gets a bit cloudier for me due to how long these players have had to mature...but for the sake of discussion i did it anyway.

sup draft

-milford brown (5th rd pick as i recall) (miss...could be debatable due to his youth and the fact that he has started.)

-tony hollings (2nd rd pick) (miss...could be debatable due to inexperience and injury...we have seen the occasional flash.)

0 starters out of 2 = 0%

2 misses. both debatable. 1 after rd 4 (2nd day pick)

33 total...including the supp draft.

ive got 16 guys i call hits (solid picks) which leaves 17 guys i call misses.

while more are debatable i believe ragone and symons should be held to a diffrent standard...neither were expected to beat out carr as a starter. they were drafted to be back ups at this point in their carreers...and to top it off symons has been plagued by injuries. (for the record i called ragone a hit and symons a miss due to what i expect their contributions and longevity to the team to be...i think thats fair.)

also...i think a case can be made for chance pearce. he was drafted to be a deep snapper...never a starter.

how do i grade charley's draft selections so far?

33 picks
9 official starters
17 players who have started at one time or another...
( carr, gaffeny, pitts, wells, baxter, faggins, johnson, peek, wand, ragone, davis, robinson, babin, earl, -anderson nickel packages---debatable-, brown, hollings, )

16 hits 17 misses
13 misses after rd 4

i think we've done pretty good in the draft to be honest with you. i dont expect every selection to be a future hall of famer...and i expect very few 7th rounders to even make the team (7 seventh rounders so far).

to top it off johnson has made the pro bowl and d-rob is well on his way.

i dont just give casserly a passing grade...i consider all of his drafts to be a success. what do you think?

ATX
08-24-2005, 08:16 PM
the 6th and 7th rounders can't really be considered misses. Most of these guys never make the team and if they, then you got a hit. but to me, you can't really miss in the 6th and 7th rounds.

Texan Gal 312
08-24-2005, 08:30 PM
Ramon Walker was a special teams "hit" year before last. I believe he blew out his knee in the last game and missed all of last year.

powda
08-24-2005, 08:30 PM
i agree with you but i dont expect everyone to...i made a special note of letting people know we had drafted 7 7th rounders for that reason...

i had wondered if i should make a case for ahmad miller (#261 overall and mr irrelevant). can you criticize casserly if miller dosent make the team? can you slam casserly if he's not a starter? i dont think so. but, he was a draft pick and he didnt turn out...so i gave the beniffit of doubt. i'd rather round down then over step boundries for the sake of a 7th rounder. i'd rather consider the big picture instead of being bogged down in an arrgument over mr irrelevant.

powda
08-24-2005, 08:32 PM
Ramon Walker was a special teams "hit" year before last. I believe he blew out his knee in the last game and missed all of last year.


your right, he did. he had a serious contribution in the overtime loss to the pats game (2 blocked kicks i believe).

rmartin65
08-24-2005, 08:39 PM
do you think that pettway will make the team? but i do think cc has done a good job

the wonger need food
08-24-2005, 08:39 PM
Ramon Walker was a special teams "hit" year before last. I believe he blew out his knee in the last game and missed all of last year.

Yep, he was put on the PUP in camp last year.

Wasn't he #41 before this year? Anyone know the story behind why he switched numbers?

aj.
08-24-2005, 08:41 PM
I think Curry Burns was his idol.

powda
08-24-2005, 08:46 PM
far to early to grade cc on this years draft but so far things look good.

i expect "pettway" to make the practice squad...otherwise we probably wouldve heard more about him in camp. he hasnt caught my eye in the p.s. games so far.

rmartin65
08-24-2005, 08:53 PM
yea, i was hoping he'd do really good in ps but he does not sound like he did much.

GP
08-24-2005, 11:10 PM
Look what I started. :popcorn:

You guys are freaks. When I have to scroll for five minutes to see all of your post....that's sad.

I thought I was guilty of writing long posts, but you guys' draft dissection is kinda' creeping me out.

How in the world do you have THAT kind of time to compile all those lists?

Oh well.

I enjoyed reading all of the commentary. When i created the post, I didn't really think there would be more than five or six posts in response.

I'm not a homer, but I think our FO has done a fairly decent job of bringing in the players that we can respect on the field and off the field. :texans:

bckey
08-25-2005, 12:45 AM
It is hard to miss in the 2nd and 3rd rounds when we haven't had any for the last 2 drafts. Make that 1. I forgot about Morency. I'd say he is probably gonna be a hit.

The Preacher
08-25-2005, 08:34 AM
Why not grade CC's picks on the # of pro bowlers he's drafted to get a mark on upper-tier talent he has acquired. From the first 3 drafts one (AJ) has made it but that isn't enough time to judge. It's somewhat safe to say 2-3 from those drafts will make it this year and 4-5 will eventually make it (AJ,DC,DD,DR,JB,CP). That's roughly an average of 1.5 Pro Bowlers per draft. At that rate your talking close to 7 or 8 future Pro Bowlers after the infamous five year plan. Granted it will become more difficult as the draft slot hopefully lowers but nevertheless that is impressive. Add in a couple of current free agents with potential and hopefully a few more high profile players over the next couple of seasons and you've got possibly 10 Pro Bowlers by 08'.

I tried to be conservative and I don't think I was unrealistic at all. 10 Pro Bowlers may be a stretch (prolly more like 7-8), but I think any team would be happy having more than 4-5 at any given time. The Texans could have twice that within three years. It might take another year or two to make a dent in the playoffs but it is VERY CLEAR that CC has put together some incredible talent in a miniscule amount of time. Just my opinion but I think anybody who thinks he is doing a poor job will feel quite foolish within a year or two.

:texans:

Exascor
08-25-2005, 08:47 AM
Why not grade CC's picks on the # of pro bowlers he's drafted.....but that isn't enough time to judge.You answered your own question. You can't use Pro Bowlers as a grade because we don't have enough time to use that as a method. Besides...I don't think it's a really fair system to use. If you draft 3 Pro Bowlers and never go to the playoffs did you have a better set of drafts than a team that drafted only 1 Pro Bowler and a lot of quality players that make the playoffs year after year? Too subjective IMO.

The Preacher
08-25-2005, 09:03 AM
Using Powda's guestimate of 16 solid picks you can add 10-12 starters/role players to the Pro Bowlers(the 4-5 I think it is safe to say we have). That is quite a few for three years. Take this year's draft and it will be several more. I just think the argument against CC is a very weak one, and I don't think I am being a wildly optimistic fan in saying that. Yes he has had some busts but every GM has. The Texans have a very solid young nucleus of players and many of which will be pro bowlers. I think in time that will make a HUGE difference. CC has made the perfect pick with his 1st round picks not to mention some other solid picks as well. A couple of them may have seemed like no-brainers but nothing is a guarantee.

swtbound07
08-25-2005, 11:15 AM
i may have sunk it...but you mispelled "battleship" :tomato:

SESupergenius
08-25-2005, 03:01 PM
This thread has probably been rehashed about 4 times over the last year or so, here is the last one.

http://www.houstontexans.com/fan_zone/messageboards/showthread.php?t=5988

powda
08-25-2005, 03:40 PM
It is hard to miss in the 2nd and 3rd rounds when we haven't had any for the last 2 drafts. Make that 1. I forgot about Morency. I'd say he is probably gonna be a hit.


if you noticed, i did not mention this years draft. how can you grade a group of players who havent had an oppurtunity to play even 1 regular season game yet?

3 of the 4 drafts were subject to question.

in those 3 drafts we have selected 9 players in the 2nd or 3rd round (im including tony hollings in the supp draft-2nd rd).

of those 9 players i consider them to be 5 hits and 4 misses.

should i assume by now that the players i consider "hits" fit in with the consensus?

so far people have called ramon walker a hit and made a case for casserly not to recieve low marks for a miss in the 7th round.

i guess we all feel then that casserly has done a good job in the draft?