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View Full Version : Looking back at Late Round QBs....


EllisUnit
05-19-2014, 11:13 PM
http://espn.go.com/blog/houston-texans/post/_/id/5683/looking-back-at-late-round-qbs

What kind of NFL career will newly signed quarterback Tom Savage have?

Will it be comparable to Steve Stenstrom or David Garrard? Danny Wuerffel or Aaron Brooks? Sage Rosenfels or Kyle Orton?

The Texans are hoping Tom Savage can beat the odds and become a long-term answer at quarterback.
To make a somewhat educated guess, you have to look back over the last 20 drafts (not including the one conducted earlier this month).

The latter name in the three comparisons above is obviously preferable, but the chances of that happening are low. There were 28 quarterbacks drafted in the fourth round from 1994 to 2013. Only nine were able to start at least 10 games and only six were able to become the starting quarterback or start at least 16 games.

That means only 21 percent of the quarterbacks drafted started what amounts to a full season in the NFL. That is a low number until you remember itís the fourth round, which is traditionally not a place teams find quality starting quarterbacks.

I know there was a little debate about this in one of the many QB threads. I thought this was a good article. I especially thought this was pretty interesting

Seventeen of the 135 quarterbacks drafted in Rounds 4-7 from 1994-2013 went on to start at least 16 games in their careers. In addition to the previously named players, that group includes Gus Frerotte, A.J. Feeley, Matt Cassel, and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Only 17 out of 135, man that goes to show you that the odds of finding a starter in the 4th-7th round are RARE.

But i believe if Savage had played a full college QB career he would of been 1st-2nd round draft pick IMO. So i think we got a steal but WTFDIK.....

badboy
05-20-2014, 12:05 AM
my understanding is any player drafted 4-7 rounds has diminishing odds of making roster let alone becoming starter or outstanding player but if it did not happen, we'd only have three rounds.

DocBar
05-20-2014, 12:21 AM
Who says the Texans are hoping Savage develops into anything? Risking a 4th round pick on a QB is hardly risking your reputation. I'd say he's risking his reputation more on QB's passed on vs. QB's available in the future.

Playoffs
05-20-2014, 12:32 AM
OB had a history with Savage, wanted him to transfer to Penn State back when Sciano was doing his thing... I've heard Savage was in his top 2 QBs in the draft.

All the odds & statistics can't predict how this young man will do. We'll have to wait and see -- hopefully he's toting a clipboard for a while.

ArlingtonTexan
05-20-2014, 01:08 AM
my understanding is any player drafted 4-7 rounds has diminishing odds of making roster let alone becoming starter or outstanding player but if it did not happen, we'd only have three rounds.

There is no place the guarantees that you will find a player and no place that guarantees that you will not, so the number of rounds means little w/o understanding risk/reward. I have no idea if you play cards or not, but sometimes the best starting hand (AA) will lose to the worse starting hand (72 off suit), but that does not mean a team should go crazy over a bad hand until the player gives them a reason to do so.

IMO, Savage seems to be a better "hand" than most late 4th round picks, but at the end of the day he is still a low percentage 4th round pick and the Texans should treat him as one until he gives him a reason to do something different.

thunderkyss
05-20-2014, 01:34 AM
IMO, Savage seems to be a better "hand" than most late 4th round picks, but at the end of the day he is still a low percentage 4th round pick and the Texans should treat him as one until he gives him a reason to do something different.

I think it'll boil down to how much time & energy OB wants to invest. If he think's it was a value pick & a "might as well grab a QB" pick, then he'll probably amount to nothing.

If he was thinking that he can make a QB out of Tom Savage, then he'll probably turn into a viable NFL starter.

beerlover
05-20-2014, 06:21 AM
I think it'll boil down to how much time & energy OB wants to invest. If he think's it was a value pick & a "might as well grab a QB" pick, then he'll probably amount to nothing.

If he was thinking that he can make a QB out of Tom Savage, then he'll probably turn into a viable NFL starter.

^This ^ :brando:

Grams
05-20-2014, 06:43 AM
It does not matter what round someone was taken.

There are 6th round picks that have fantastic NFL careers and there are first round busts. Where you were drafted really has no bearing on how well you will/will not do. That is up to the individual player and the coaching he receives or does not receive.

The NFL is very different that college, some guys have it to succeed and some guys do not - no matter where you are drafted or not drafted.

revan
05-20-2014, 07:27 AM
http://espn.go.com/blog/houston-texans/post/_/id/5683/looking-back-at-late-round-qbs



I know there was a little debate about this in one of the many QB threads. I thought this was a good article. I especially thought this was pretty interesting



Only 17 out of 135, man that goes to show you that the odds of finding a starter in the 4th-7th round are RARE.

But i believe if Savage had played a full college QB career he would of been 1st-2nd round draft pick IMO. So i think we got a steal but WTFDIK.....

http://img.pandawhale.com/post-37372-well-thats-just-GREAT-gif-Paul-t1mB.gif

PapaL
05-20-2014, 07:43 AM
Kind of funny how the view on Savage is "if he amounts to anything" but so many people on this board want to give the UDFA that stunk it up last year more than 8 games as a starter. After watching last years QB play I'd gladly give our 4th and/or Fitz a chance.

infantrycak
05-20-2014, 07:59 AM
There is no place the guarantees that you will find a player and no place that guarantees that you will not, so the number of rounds means little w/o understanding risk/reward. I have no idea if you play cards or not, but sometimes the best starting hand (AA) will lose to the worse starting hand (72 off suit), but that does not mean a team should go crazy over a bad hand until the player gives them a reason to do so.

IMO, Savage seems to be a better "hand" than most late 4th round picks, but at the end of the day he is still a low percentage 4th round pick and the Texans should treat him as one until he gives him a reason to do something different.

That's pretty much the bottom line.

I will say I have more hope than for an average 4th rounder because his background is an obvious difference from most 4th rounders. To me he is akin to someone who falls in the draft due to drug problems, like for instance Mallett. If the drug problem or lack of experience is resolved you can more easily see them being the exceptional 4th rounder who makes it instead of the had a full college career, no problems guy who was in the 4th straight up due to his play.

thunderkyss
05-20-2014, 08:24 AM
Kind of funny how the view on Savage is "if he amounts to anything" but so many people on this board want to give the UDFA that stunk it up last year more than 8 games as a starter. After watching last years QB play I'd gladly give our 4th and/or Fitz a chance.

:thinking: I know there's a flaw in this line of thinking. :thinking: Give me a minute. :thinking:

Playoffs
05-20-2014, 10:27 AM
Kind of funny how the view on Savage is "if he amounts to anything" but so many people on this board want to give the UDFA... more than 8 games as a starter...

It's a little known fact that an UDFA QB from a local college has a higher likelihood of making it than a 4th round draft pick. :devilpig:

drs23
05-20-2014, 10:35 AM
OB had a history with Savage, wanted him to transfer to Penn State back when Sciano was doing his thing... I've heard Savage was in his top 2 QBs in the draft.

All the odds & statistics can't predict how this young man will do. We'll have to wait and see -- hopefully he's toting a clipboard for a while.

I've heard/read that as well with Bortles being his first preference. I heard/read it here.

With all your connects, do you have an outside/independent source?

drs23
05-20-2014, 10:40 AM
I think it'll boil down to how much time & energy OB wants to invest. If he think's it was a value pick & a "might as well grab a QB" pick, then he'll probably amount to nothing.

If he was thinking that he can make a QB out of Tom Savage, then he'll probably turn into a viable NFL starter.

I can't fathom O'Brien wasting a draft pick on a QB that he didn't think he could tutor and coach up to starter material. I'd be really surprised if that were the case. Now whether Savage can deliver, I guess we'll find out. I hope to find out that Bill O'Brien is every bit the "QB Whisperer" we've all heard about. That would be just too good to be true if we grabbed a franchise QB in the fourth.

I think we'd ALL BE AMPED!

How long will it take to know?

idonno:

BullNation4Life
05-20-2014, 10:48 AM
Kind of funny how the view on Savage is "if he amounts to anything" but so many people on this board want to give the UDFA that stunk it up last year more than 8 games as a starter. After watching last years QB play I'd gladly give our 4th and/or Fitz a chance.

I think most fans were tolerant of Keenum for the fact that #8 sucked so bad, that fans were willing to be patient and hope Keenum could be that diamond in the rough and be the hometown hero....


problem was instead of a diamond, he turned out to be just petrified dog poo....

chenjy9
05-20-2014, 03:04 PM
I think most fans were tolerant of Keenum for the fact that #8 sucked so bad, that fans were willing to be patient and hope Keenum could be that diamond in the rough and be the hometown hero....

problem was instead of a diamond, he turned out to be just petrified dog poo....

There is also the fact that if a piece of turd sprouted limbs, many of us would have been rooting for it to supplant Schaub as the starter. Sure there were Keenum groupies, but most of us last season was just so sick and tired of watching Kubes march Schaub out there to give away games. I am so glad the 2 of them are gone.

IDEXAN
05-20-2014, 03:18 PM
OB had a history with Savage, wanted him to transfer to Penn State back when Sciano was doing his thing... I've heard Savage was in his top 2 QBs in the draft.

All the odds & statistics can't predict how this young man will do. We'll have to wait and see -- hopefully he's toting a clipboard for a while.
Sorry Playoffs, but I just find that hard to believe given it's imperative for OB to find our teams long-term starting QB ASAP. And we waited to use a comp 4th round pick on this guy which means it's at the very end of the round. I just have to think that if he was that highly valued by OB, he would have moved much quicker on Savage than he did for fear of losing him to another team ?

bah007
05-20-2014, 03:24 PM
schaub had 7 years of rope with texan fans and even then a lot of yall wouldnt let schaub go. it took him imploding and setting infamous interceptions record to finally get it.

but somehow case cant get more than 8 games to prove himself worthy of being an nfl player.

You won't find me on the list of Schaub supporters, but despite his numerous flaws he did at least manage to win a single game as the starter.

Hervoyel
05-20-2014, 03:27 PM
It's a little known fact that an UDFA QB from a local college has a higher likelihood of making it than a 4th round draft pick. :devilpig:

That actually is a little known fact.

http://eclipsemagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Cliff_thumb.jpg

thunderkyss
05-20-2014, 07:05 PM
I think most fans were tolerant of Keenum for the fact that #8 sucked so bad, that fans were willing to be patient and hope Keenum could be that diamond in the rough and be the hometown hero....


problem was instead of a diamond, he turned out to be just petrified dog poo....

& a lot of fans are sucked into this "rebuild" mentality, which I do not understand. With Kubiak it was, "Franchises have turned it around in a two years or less, look at Harbaugh in San Francisco, or Payton in New Orleans."

But now all of a sudden it's "at least a two or three year rebuild." Some are saying 4 years.

With Kubiak we had an "easy" SoS with a .506 (2009) at the beginning of the year, we should have won 10 games (we won nine). in 2014, it's .438 but we shouldn't expect more than six wins.

I don't know if the people saying that are in kahoots with the people wanting to give Keenum another shot or what, but something is not adding up.

eriadoc
05-20-2014, 07:18 PM
A big part of the low percentage of starters from those later rounds boils down to opportunity. The late rounder basically has to completely WOW the coaching staff, which belies his draft position, or get lucky enough to get an extended look, and/or the high round draft pick or entrenched starter has to stink it up. Teams just aren't willing to give an extended look to a late rounder when they have a guy in camp that they paid a bunch of guaranteed money to. Matt Schaub was never going to get an extended look while Vick was there unless he stuck around long enough for Vick to go to jail. Kirk Cousins is not going to get a fair shot with RGIII there, unless RGIII keeps getting injured. Even then, when he comes back from injury, not too many teams have the balls to sit a bona fide star like Drew Bledsoe in favor of some guy who really just kind of managed things while he had the chance. Even fewer teams are going to pay a free agent a bunch of money and then bench him in favor of the rookie 3rd rounder they just drafted (kudos Pete). If a guy like Heath Shuler just totally stinks it up, then a guy like Frerotte can get a shot. Even then, the team has to be solid enough around him to win or he'll get saddled with the W/L record despite just being one guy.

Savage doesn't have a high rounder or highly paid guy in front of him. He also has a coaching staff that's new and who went out and specifically selected him. So he should get as honest a chance at the position as any late rounder ever gets. So while the overall numbers may be skewed by opportunity, I think Savage has a real chance. What he does with it is anyone's guess.

ObsiWan
05-20-2014, 07:22 PM
A big part of the low percentage of starters from those later rounds boils down to opportunity. The late rounder basically has to completely WOW the coaching staff, which belies his draft position, or get lucky enough to get an extended look, and/or the high round draft pick or entrenched starter has to stink it up. Teams just aren't willing to give an extended look to a late rounder when they have a guy in camp that they paid a bunch of guaranteed money to. Matt Schaub was never going to get an extended look while Vick was there unless he stuck around long enough for Vick to go to jail. Kirk Cousins is not going to get a fair shot with RGIII there, unless RGIII keeps getting injured. Even then, when he comes back from injury, not too many teams have the balls to sit a bona fide star like Drew Bledsoe in favor of some guy who really just kind of managed things while he had the chance. Even fewer teams are going to pay a free agent a bunch of money and then bench him in favor of the rookie 3rd rounder they just drafted (kudos Pete). If a guy like Heath Shuler just totally stinks it up, then a guy like Frerotte can get a shot. Even then, the team has to be solid enough around him to win or he'll get saddled with the W/L record despite just being one guy.

Savage doesn't have a high rounder or highly paid guy in front of him. He also has a coaching staff that's new and who went out and specifically selected him. So he should get as honest a chance at the position as any late rounder ever gets. So while the overall numbers may be skewed by opportunity, I think Savage has a real chance. What he does with it is anyone's guess.

This explains the low percentage of success in a nutshell.
High rounders get more rope with which to hang themselves than late rounders do. With the new rookie salary structure that will probably change a bit but historically - preRookie Salary structure - teams invested lots of $$$ in 1st & 2nd round picks and wanted to give them every opportunity to "blossom".
Late round picks, not so much.

thunderkyss
05-20-2014, 08:18 PM
keenum had 8 games and was thrust into playing that what eventually became 2-14 nfl team.

not to mention a lame duck head coach and injuries on both sides of the ball with virtually no running game.

are you seriously gonna say he found out everything we need to know about keenum?

Yup

:mcclain:

PapaL
05-21-2014, 01:39 AM
Keenun had 6 years in college, an entire year on PS, half a year on the bench, and half a year starting. How many more and better chances does an UDFA deserve?,

revan
05-21-2014, 02:20 AM
Keenun had 6 years in college, an entire year on PS, half a year on the bench, and half a year starting. How many more and better chances does an UDFA deserve?,

That's not enough. We need the 90's Dallas Cowboys OL, Barry Sanders at RB, Jerry Rice, Randy Moss and Andre Johnson at WR then we can call it a fair shot.

BigBull
05-21-2014, 06:23 AM
That's not enough. We need the 90's Dallas Cowboys OL, Barry Sanders at RB, Jerry Rice, Randy Moss and Andre Johnson at WR then we can call it a fair shot.

He needs the 85 Bears defense also, because even with all that great offensive talent he still wouldn't be able to recognize the blitz. :kitten:

revan
05-21-2014, 06:56 AM
He needs the 85 Bears defense also, because even with all that great offensive talent he still wouldn't be able to recognize the blitz. :kitten:
Gotta rep this post!
http://whatgifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/funny-gifs-double-excellent.gif

LikeMike
05-21-2014, 07:07 AM
keenum had 8 games and was thrust into playing that what eventually became 2-14 nfl team.

not to mention a lame duck head coach and injuries on both sides of the ball with virtually no running game.

are you seriously gonna say he found out everything we need to know about keenum?

Last seasons team massively underperformed. Most people thought we were a lock for the playoffs. And the team easily had the talents to make the playoffs and win a game.

I am not saying it is Keenums fault that we underperformed. Naw, it was some kind of downward spiral starting with bad kicking and a QB that imploded in Schaub and some clueless coaching that couldn`t stop it. And we had pretty bad lineplay as well.

What I am saying is: Keenum couldn`t turn it around. He was pretty good his first game - then got worse as the season progressed. Of course you can`t fault an UDFA with that, he was under a lot of pressure and the team had a losing attitude. But besides some talent that lots of QBs in this league have, he didn`t show much more.

Like I always said: he should get another chance in an open training camp battle. But so far he is not ahead of anyone else. Yates lead the game winning drive to give us our first playoff appearance and actually won a playoff game, Fitzpatrick is known to pick up offenses fast and Savage has the size, the arm and the toughness you want in a QB. Let them battle it out.

thunderkyss
05-21-2014, 08:12 AM
Seventeen of the 135 quarterbacks drafted in Rounds 4-7 from 1994-2013 went on to start at least 16 games in their careers. In addition to the previously named players, that group includes Gus Frerotte, A.J. Feeley, Matt Cassel, and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Only 17 out of 135, man that goes to show you that the odds of finding a starter in the 4th-7th round are RARE.


So...

if Christian Ponder were drafted in the 5th round, how many starts would he have gotten? I find it hard to believe he would have gotten 16 in his four year career. Not that he would have played any worse. But he got 16+ starts because of what the Vikings had invested in him.

Had they drafted Tj Yates instead, Tj would have had 30 starts in that same time. Not that he would have played better than he has, or that he's better than Ponder, but because they would have invested a 1st round pick on him.

Looking at their college stats, I don't understand why Ponder was a first rounder & Yates was a fifth, other than supply/demand & personal preference. (I know stats don't tell the whole story, but I didn't watch UNC or Florida State back in 2009).

ObsiWan
05-21-2014, 08:20 AM
Last seasons team massively underperformed. Most people thought we were a lock for the playoffs. And the team easily had the talents to make the playoffs and win a game.

I am not saying it is Keenums fault that we underperformed. Naw, it was some kind of downward spiral starting with bad kicking and a QB that imploded in Schaub and some clueless coaching that couldn`t stop it. And we had pretty bad lineplay as well.

What I am saying is: Keenum couldn`t turn it around. He was pretty good his first game - then got worse as the season progressed. Of course you can`t fault an UDFA with that, he was under a lot of pressure and the team had a losing attitude. But besides some talent that lots of QBs in this league have, he didn`t show much more.

Like I always said: he should get another chance in an open training camp battle. But so far he is not ahead of anyone else. Yates lead the game winning drive to give us our first playoff appearance and actually won a playoff game, Fitzpatrick is known to pick up offenses fast and Savage has the size, the arm and the toughness you want in a QB. Let them battle it out.

http://c04711a1b1f89302495d-7c514110b7344f26eba5c48779de6a83.r59.cf3.rackcdn.c om/942621414-Godzilla-Let-Them-Fight.jpg
The arrogance of message boarders is that we think they know more than the coaching staff
...and not the other way around.

Let them fight (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DbDKPvl3Vw).

Playoffs
05-21-2014, 08:05 PM
The arrogance of message boarders is that we think they know more than the coaching staff ...and not the other way around.

Ken Watanabe knows.

DocBar
05-22-2014, 09:41 PM
http://c04711a1b1f89302495d-7c514110b7344f26eba5c48779de6a83.r59.cf3.rackcdn.c om/942621414-Godzilla-Let-Them-Fight.jpg
The arrogance of message boarders is that we think they know more than the coaching staff
...and not the other way around.

Let them fight (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DbDKPvl3Vw).That was actually a worse movie than I thought it would be.

OK special effects, ok story line, not so ok casting, unrealistic plot (too easy to poke holes in it).

Norg
05-23-2014, 03:55 AM
I knew that OB gets a 1 year pass trust me guys when we have a top 10 pick or pick in the teens next year

that's when we will get our QB in the first round ... yup or Mcnair will open the CHeck book to let Bob choose any QB he wants in f/A

chenjy9
05-23-2014, 02:01 PM
I knew that OB gets a 1 year pass trust me guys when we have a top 10 pick or pick in the teens next year

that's when we will get our QB in the first round ... yup or Mcnair will open the CHeck book to let Bob choose any QB he wants in f/A

Someone correct me if I am wrong, but aren't we still limited by the salary cap? I don't think McNair can simply go, here is a blank check for you to find your QB. We still have to be able to fit him under the cap right?

Norg
05-23-2014, 05:43 PM
Someone correct me if I am wrong, but aren't we still limited by the salary cap? I don't think McNair can simply go, here is a blank check for you to find your QB. We still have to be able to fit him under the cap right?

yeah there is two routes u can go get a good rookie QB like San fran and Seattle and pay him pretty much nothing for the first 3 years

or get your franchise QB mid level or rookie QB and pay him like 30 40 mill

that seems to be the problem tho for wut like 27 other teams its hard to find your Franchise guy and wiling to pay him

Goldensilence
05-25-2014, 12:33 PM
In my opinion the numbers are a bit skewed against late round qbs for a few reasons, as others have pointed out real development opportunity plus playing time.

Thankfully, since they fixed the rookie contract system I think that that is going to change. I'm not saying late round qbs are going to be the norm. But, I do think we could continue to see more stories like Russell Wilson, Nick Files, Kaepernick, and others more regularly. We'll still see high round picks at qb because there is such a premium at the position.

I'm not sure if we can or will put Savage into that list. But, like O'Brien I do think he has the tools to stick, most importantly, arm strength.

thunderkyss
05-25-2014, 06:57 PM
Thankfully, since they fixed the rookie contract system I think that that is going to change. I'm not saying late round qbs are going to be the norm.

I didn't think about that. Since the rookie contracts aren't so inflated, QBs shouldn't be overvalued throughout the entire draft like they have been before.