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eriadoc
05-13-2014, 08:57 PM
So Rick Smith's tenure has brought the team the following in the 3rd and 4th rounds:

2007: Jacoby Jones and Fred Bennett

2008: Antwaun Molden, Steve Slaton, and Xavier Adibi

2009: Antoine Caldwell, Glover Quin, and Anthony Hill

2010: Earl Mitchell, Darryl Sharpton, and Garrett Graham

2011: no 3rd rounder because they traded up to take Brandon Harris in the 2nd, and Rashad Carmichael in the 4th

Not including '12 and '13 because it's still too early to pile on, but a couple of them aren't even with the team anymore.

So which of our 3rd and 4th round picks this year will turn out true to Rick Smith's draft record?

Big Lou
05-13-2014, 09:06 PM
So Rick Smith's tenure has brought the team the following in the 3rd and 4th rounds:

2007: Jacoby Jones and Fred Bennett

2008: Antwaun Molden, Steve Slaton, and Xavier Adibi

2009: Antoine Caldwell, Glover Quin, and Anthony Hill

2010: Earl Mitchell, Darryl Sharpton, and Garrett Graham

2011: no 3rd rounder because they traded up to take Brandon Harris in the 2nd, and Rashad Carmichael in the 4th

Not including '12 and '13 because it's still too early to pile on, but a couple of them aren't even with the team anymore.

So which of our 3rd and 4th round picks this year will turn out true to Rick Smith's draft record?

I'm not sure what you are impying. More misses than hits or vice versa?

Although there haven't been any HOF'ers for Rick from the 3rd and 4th he's picked some serviceable guys that have had some productive years. Somewhat of a mixed bag, but isn't that what the 3rd and 4th are all about?

powda
05-13-2014, 09:20 PM
So Rick Smith's tenure has brought the team the following in the 3rd and 4th rounds:

2007: Jacoby Jones and Fred Bennett

2008: Antwaun Molden, Steve Slaton, and Xavier Adibi

2009: Antoine Caldwell, Glover Quin, and Anthony Hill

2010: Earl Mitchell, Darryl Sharpton, and Garrett Graham

2011: no 3rd rounder because they traded up to take Brandon Harris in the 2nd, and Rashad Carmichael in the 4th

Not including '12 and '13 because it's still too early to pile on, but a couple of them aren't even with the team anymore.

So which of our 3rd and 4th round picks this year will turn out true to Rick Smith's draft record?

http://itsnotmeright.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/debbie_downer.jpg

Playoffs
05-13-2014, 09:26 PM
How did they do based on these parameters?

Datascope Analytics: The chance of a bust in the NFL draft (http://datascopeanalytics.com/what-we-think/2012/05/01/the-chance-of-a-bust-in-the-nfl-draft)
What is a “bust?” We'll look at it two different ways. First, a bust is a player that ends up with a value score of less than 5 according to pro-football-reference.com (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/). A value of less than 5 is equivalent to a marginal role player that has limited game experience and contributes little to no value to an NFL franchise. Here it is in a visual:
http://datascopeanalytics.com/media/uploads/blog/2012-04-28/image00.png

...our second method for setting the bar for a “bust” is that the player starts for less than one year or plays less than 40 games in their career. Here's the same visual with the different way of measuring busts:
http://datascopeanalytics.com/media/uploads/blog/2012-04-28/image01.png
...picking at the end of the second round only gives your team a 50% chance of finding a starter. Going towards the end of the round 3, your chance of finding a starter falls to ~30%.

Goldensilence
05-13-2014, 09:31 PM
This year's looks solid, but how can we distinguish Kubiak and his staff vs Smith?

thunderkyss
05-13-2014, 09:39 PM
So Rick Smith's tenure has brought the team the following in the 3rd and 4th rounds:

2007: Jacoby Jones and Fred Bennett

2008: Antwaun Molden, Steve Slaton, and Xavier Adibi

2009: Antoine Caldwell, Glover Quin, and Anthony Hill

2010: Earl Mitchell, Darryl Sharpton, and Garrett Graham

2011: no 3rd rounder because they traded up to take Brandon Harris in the 2nd, and Rashad Carmichael in the 4th

Not including '12 and '13 because it's still too early to pile on, but a couple of them aren't even with the team anymore.

So which of our 3rd and 4th round picks this year will turn out true to Rick Smith's draft record?

I loved/love the Jacoby Jones pick. I don't care what our fans think about him. I wouldn't have let him go. I think a better coach could have handled that situation/player better.

I liked Caldwell too. Didn't he get hurt?

Slaton got hurt. Put on some weight as well, that spare tire he was carrying didn't help, but I thought that was at the coaches direction.

Quin was probably my most favorite of those. Dude was a baller, a football player, he brought a toughness to this team that we needed more of, not less. Just don't ask him to knock down a hail mary.

This year, we've got what.... Fiedo, Nix, & Savage? Nix worries me the most.

xtruroyaltyx
05-13-2014, 10:15 PM
If I had to pick one player it'd be savage...nature if the position and I think the other guys are better at their position than he's shown to be at his.

DBCooper
05-13-2014, 10:47 PM
If I had to pick one player it'd be savage...nature if the position and I think the other guys are better at their position than he's shown to be at his.

Nix Nix Nix Nix!

Big boy causing havoc and clogging the middle!

Been dreaming of this.

This changes the D more than Clowney does, add Clowney to what Nix will do for us, Priceless!

dream_team
05-13-2014, 10:56 PM
I'm not sure what you are impying. More misses than hits or vice versa?

Although there haven't been any HOF'ers for Rick from the 3rd and 4th he's picked some serviceable guys that have had some productive years. Somewhat of a mixed bag, but isn't that what the 3rd and 4th are all about?

I agree. Not sure where you're getting at? The odds say 3-4 round picks aren't typically starters in this league for more than 2 seasons.

I'd be happy if Nix was a solid starter for us, Fiedo is a solid contributer off the bench and in STs. Anything positive Savage does is a bonus. Those are my realistic expectations.

thunderkyss
05-13-2014, 10:57 PM
Nix Nix Nix Nix!

Big boy causing havoc and clogging the middle!

Been dreaming of this.

This changes the D more than Clowney does, add Clowney to what Nix will do for us, Priceless!

Uh... yeahhh.. we're picking the next guys who'll disappear like most of Richard Smith's 3rd & 4th round picks.

DBCooper
05-13-2014, 11:13 PM
Uh... yeahhh.. we're picking the next guys who'll disappear like most of Richard Smith's 3rd & 4th round picks.

I guess I didn't get that.

Lots of wine tonight.

I'm excited about Nix if he is healthy. He is a game changer.

Savage is someone I know very little about, watched a few videos but I can't tell one way or the other.

And how dare you mention that name (Richard Smith).

eriadoc
05-13-2014, 11:27 PM
I'm not sure what you are impying. More misses than hits or vice versa?

Not implying anything; just wondering aloud. I'm not sure what I think of his draft record on balance. I think the misses have been atrocious, and the hits have been just guys, with the exception of Quin. I think we all have some boundless optimism over what seems to be a great draft, but I can't shake this nagging feeling that Rick Smith sucks at his job and shouldn't be employed by the Texans right now. Just a feeling, mind you.

I loved/love the Jacoby Jones pick. I don't care what our fans think about him. I wouldn't have let him go. I think a better coach could have handled that situation/player better.

I think JJ suffered from a combination of a couple factors - 1.) he fumbled, and that gets you into trouble with any coach, period. 2.) He didn't handle the pressure very well. Maybe it's a lack of mental toughness, maybe he was just scared because Kubiak yelled at him, or maybe he just wilted when AJ went down and he was supposed to step up. 3.) related to both 1 and 2, he just needed to mature as a player. He still does, to a degree. He still isn't, and probably never will be, a reliable WR.

I liked Caldwell too. Didn't he get hurt?

No, he just sucked. I was high on him when he came out of Alabama, but that definitely didn't pan out.

Slaton got hurt. Put on some weight as well, that spare tire he was carrying didn't help, but I thought that was at the coaches direction.

Slaton had some chances on other teams to prove that his one good year wasn't a fluke. He never did. A few of us on the board expressed concern during the 1200-yd season that he was inconsistent in his style and needed to fix some stuff.

Quin was probably my most favorite of those.

Quin was far and away the best player from that list.

Guys like Brandon Harris, Antwaun Molden, Adibi, Anthony Hill, and Carmichael really hit bad, IMO - especially the CBs. The secondary was pure garbage for a number of those years and those guys still couldn't get on the field. That's BAD. The theme with a few of these guys is undersized, or with last year's group, character issues. Yet they took them anyway. To me, when a player just fails because he isn't that good, that's one thing. The NFL is a tough place. Darryl Sharpton is a bust, in my eyes, but he's just a normal NFL washout. He'll never be the player they hoped they'd get. Oh well, c'est la vie. But when you grab a guy despite the warnings, especially in the 3rd round, you're more on the hook as a GM, IMO.

Also, while 3rd rounders might only pan out 50% of the time, that's irrespective of position. Certain positions when drafted in the 3rd round should be expected to be either a starter or at least a heavy rotation guy, maybe after a year or two into the league. A QB you drafted in the 3rd round is clearly a developmental guy, but a RB? 3rd round RBs should be graded tougher, IMO. Same with interior OL. Unless a G/C is a no-brainer pick, they often get taken in the 3rd and 4th rounds to be starters. Tackles, not so much. You take my point, anyway.

So while I am enthused about this year's draft, I just can't shake my mistrust of Rick Smith in the draft.

Brett
05-14-2014, 12:10 AM
From what Casserly told me in a meeting last week, Kubiak was actually making the picks. Same with O'Brien. Rick doesn't have final say in that war room.

eriadoc
05-14-2014, 12:43 AM
From what Casserly told me in a meeting last week, Kubiak was actually making the picks. Same with O'Brien. Rick doesn't have final say in that war room.

Well, IF that's true, then the best defense for Rick Smith is he's impotent. That makes me feel much better about the draft, but cements my opinion that he should not be employed by the Texans at this point.

kiwitexansfan
05-14-2014, 12:48 AM
Well, IF that's true, then the best defense for Rick Smith is he's impotent. That makes me feel much better about the draft, but cements my opinion that he should not be employed by the Texans at this point.

Well if the ownership dictates that it is Rick Smith's job to fulfill the wishes of the Coach, what can Smith do?

He has done that as far as we know. If they hired someone else, unless the job description changed what difference does it make?

dream_team
05-14-2014, 12:59 AM
Also, while 3rd rounders might only pan out 50% of the time, that's irrespective of position. Certain positions when drafted in the 3rd round should be expected to be either a starter or at least a heavy rotation guy, maybe after a year or two into the league. A QB you drafted in the 3rd round is clearly a developmental guy, but a RB? 3rd round RBs should be graded tougher, IMO. Same with interior OL. Unless a G/C is a no-brainer pick, they often get taken in the 3rd and 4th rounds to be starters. Tackles, not so much. You take my point, anyway.

So while I am enthused about this year's draft, I just can't shake my mistrust of Rick Smith in the draft.

Here's my analysis on these picks. I'll use the following website's statistics as a basis. If you scroll towards the bottom, you'll see stats broken down by position and round.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Digging-deeper-into-draft-probabilities.html

Jacoby Jones (73) - his career is well over 5 years and started 32% of the games he played in. Considering he's a pro-bowl kick returner, and should have won Super Bowl MVP, I'd call him an above average pick.

Fred Bennett (123) - his career last over 3 years and even started 35% of the games he played in. He's actually slightly above average, but I'll consider it just average.

Antwaun Molden (79) - his career was just under 5 years and only started 2 games in his whole career. This pick was a miss, but not by much.

Steve Slaton (89) - his career lasted only 4 years, but he did start over half of his games. I'd say he was average.

Xavier Adibi (118) - career lasted only 5 years and started less than 20% of his games. Pick was just below average.

Antoine Caldwell (77) - despite starting close to 50% of his games, his career only lasted 4 years. Pick is below average.

Glover Quin (112) - just about started every game of his 5 year career, even including his rookie season. One of Rick's best picks ever.

Anthony Hill (122) - from one of his best, to one of his worst draft picks. Hill was always injured and wasn't on the field enough to prove his worth. Horrible pick.

Earl Mitchell (81) - his career will clearly be over 5 years, while starting 27% of his games thus far. So far, a solid-average pick.

Darryl Sharpton (102) - his career should last over 5 years, and he's currently starting 45% of his games. His injuries have clearly halted his progression, so I'll call this one just average.

Garrett Graham (118) - will easily have a career over 5 years, and he has started just about half of his games. I think this will be an above average pick, but still too early to call. So I'll say average for now.

2 above average
5 average
4 below average

But I believe Earl Mitchell and Garrett Graham will end up being above average after a few more years, Sharpton has a shot too.

In the end, i think Rick Smith is fairly average at drafting. He's not one of the best, but also not totally garbage.

Norg
05-14-2014, 02:26 AM
7 outta 5 not to shabby IMO


J jones Is a great player he help lead a team to a SB win .... another one of te Texans deaft picks they goes on to other teams and has success


GQ is a pretty good safety not great but good

welsh texan
05-14-2014, 05:06 AM
If I had to pick one player it'd be savage...nature if the position and I think the other guys are better at their position than he's shown to be at his.

Well, you'd have to say that taking a QB in the later rounds is always a high chance of completely wasting a pick, QB's are either top 10 at their position or a waste of a draft pick.

You see Bengals fans evaluating Andy Dalton as a value pick versus his draft position or as a roster weakness versus the Elite QB's around the league?

If you get a starter out of the 4th round round at QB, the honeymoon won't last too long unless he develops into a high level player at the position. At some point every team takes a flyer at the position but that late in the draft, you'll likely get more value for your roster spot at any other position you could name, its just that small chance that if Sav can be moulded into a quality starter, suddenly you've found incredible value.

Still can't discount any of our other QB's from having some kind of immense turnaround if BoB's system happens to suit them perfectly, its not as if they don't have some great weapons at playmaking positions and what should be a much improved Oline to protect them.

Of those 11 3rd and 4th round picks, 8 started games for the Texans, 5 had their progress ruined by injury. You could make a case that Slaton, Bennett etc filled an immediate need and produced early in their careers as well.

Scooter
05-14-2014, 06:06 AM
From what Casserly told me in a meeting last week, Kubiak was actually making the picks. Same with O'Brien. Rick doesn't have final say in that war room.

kinda random that a message board member claims to be having meetings with known names. i'm not saying that i dont believe you, this is exactly what i believe rick smith to be. kubiak brought him in as his personal "yes man". rick turned that job into mcnair's personal "yes man". his job is to do as he's told, and mcnair has given o'brien the keys.

Scooter
05-14-2014, 06:24 AM
all told, that's not bad talent from our 3-4th rounders, and it's missing kubiak's grand slams in 2006 (i know, not rick smith). not great, and quin was the only real homerun, but fair depth talent which is what you hope for. kubiak gets a lot of hell around here (some deserved), but he most certainly did bring in talent, and did quite a job of building them up. just imagine our selections with a more capable defensive evaluator.

i think we've hit homeruns in the 3rd round this year. fiedo is an almost certainty as a player who is no worse than #2 for his rookie contract or longer. d-linemen are near impossible to project however. nix has bust potential but everything i've heard around the league is he is easily the steal of the draft. our fourth round qb could go any direction - from great to backup to nothing.

Playoffs
05-14-2014, 11:26 AM
From what Casserly told me in a meeting last week, Kubiak was actually making the picks. Same with O'Brien. Rick doesn't have final say in that war room.

Makes sense. There's so little continuity between prior years and this year's drafts. And last year's draft, Sybil (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0075296/) was our GM.