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DRIFTAWAY
07-19-2005, 07:34 PM
David Carr (http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/story/3772052)

If you go to the bottom of that page it has stuff on David Carr and it talks about him becoming the NFL's next great quartback along the lines of Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper. Also very good stuff on his play skills.

STEEL BLUE TEXANS
07-19-2005, 07:50 PM
Can't say I disagree with him. Carr is going to be special.

nunusguy
07-19-2005, 07:52 PM
""I don't mean he's the next Chad Pennington or Trent Green," Joyner writes. "I mean he's possibly the next Manning (Peyton, not Eli) or Culpepper. Just take a look at his numbers from last year ... He ranked fourth in yards per attempt, third in tight/good coverage percentage and fifth in bad decision percentage. ... Besides ranking in first in deep completion percentage, he also ranked fourth in accurate deep pass percentage and fourth in deep yards per attempt."
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High praise to be sure.
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"We truly believed last season that Carr was being completely held back by his terrible offensive line and receiver group, and these numbers back it up. No team has frustrated us more this off-season with their inactivity than the Texans. Carr looks like he has the potential to be great. But he may continue to be limited by Houston's secondary receivers (Corey Bradford and Jabar Gaffney) and their offensive line."
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Sounds like sentiments some on this board have had - but that's last year and I for one am gonna have an open mind and positive attitude for the upcoming season.

Jwwillis
07-19-2005, 07:56 PM
Great on Carr and really disses the O-Line and receivers. Kinda like our message board :cool:

Texans Pride
07-19-2005, 10:02 PM
Sometimes the truth hurts. . .

tacoman_j
07-19-2005, 10:18 PM
Why then is Carr Vision Cone so limited??? HUH!!!

http://sports.ign.com/articles/634/634981p13.html

edo783
07-19-2005, 10:55 PM
Why then is Carr Vision Cone so limited??? HUH!!!

http://sports.ign.com/articles/634/634981p13.html

Time???

mexican_texan
07-19-2005, 11:35 PM
Why then is Carr Vision Cone so limited??? HUH!!!

http://sports.ign.com/articles/634/634981p13.html

why is it smaller than trent dilfer's?!?!?!?!?!? i know espn 2k6 would have been a far greater game.

Lucky
07-20-2005, 01:26 AM
I'm intrigued. If you're wondering what the author means by "bad decision" & "tight/good coverage", here are the definitions from his web site, The Football Scientist (http://www.thefootballscientist.com/football_research/glossary.htm).

Bad decision - Usually when the QB forces the ball into coverage, or does something that he obviously shouldn't do. Too many of these, especially if under a pass rush, is a sign that the QB can be rattled.

Good coverage - When a DB is within 1 step of the receiver as the pass arrives, or when they have good position on a pass. Compare to tight coverage.

Tight coverage - When a DB is all over a receiver as the pass arrives. To differentiate between this and good coverage: Good coverage can be beaten with a perfectly thrown pass. Tight coverage is almost never beaten.

OK, it's great that Carr has a good % throwing into good/tight coverage. That doesn't surprise me, Carr has a cannon and he's accurate. But if Carr is so great at throwing into coverage, how can he have a good "bad decision" percentage? That's defined as not throwing into coverage. :confused: I just bought the book, so when I figure it out, I'll let you know.

ledzeppelin229
07-20-2005, 02:31 AM
Maybe he differentiates between 'throwing' into coverage and actually 'forcing' it into coverage. If the pass is completed, then the risk was worth it. If it's tipped, well you live to play another down. If it's intercepted, then it counts strongly as a bad decision.

h2so4
07-20-2005, 03:14 AM
I think Carr's gonna be one of the best QB in the NFL.He shows great potential now.

HOUSTON RULES !!!

rittenhouserobz
07-20-2005, 07:45 AM
A bad decision doesn't end in a completion for a TD. BTW the book is a little pricey for me, but I think I will get the draft guide.

infantrycak
07-20-2005, 09:10 AM
OK, it's great that Carr has a good % throwing into good/tight coverage. That doesn't surprise me, Carr has a cannon and he's accurate. But if Carr is so great at throwing into coverage, how can he have a good "bad decision" percentage? That's defined as not throwing into coverage. :confused: I just bought the book, so when I figure it out, I'll let you know.

I think the distinction is going to be primarily the positioning of the DB's and whether than can make and INT. Tight coverage on the far shoulder of the WR means the DB may bust up the play but is unlikely to get the INT. Tight coverage on the near shoulder or with another DB rolling over means not only that the DB may bust up the play but will have a good shot at picking the pass off. Another option is how the ball was thrown. In the Vikings game last year it seemed to have dawned on DC that he could throw a ball higher than he would for most WR's even into tight double coverage and AJ would just go up and get it--that's a ball which won't get INT'd by most DB's except off a deflection.

DreamCatcher
07-20-2005, 01:23 PM
Carr is the real deal and can be a great QB,he just needs more protection.

Lucky
07-20-2005, 04:39 PM
I think the distinction is going to be primarily the positioning of the DB's and whether than can make and INT. Tight coverage on the far shoulder of the WR means the DB may bust up the play but is unlikely to get the INT. Tight coverage on the near shoulder or with another DB rolling over means not only that the DB may bust up the play but will have a good shot at picking the pass off...
Yeah it could mean something like that. I would find it problematical to ascertain these differences over each pass thrown in the NFL. I'm not sure if you can see all of these things from a TV feed. How much is objective, how much subjective?

I'n not dismissing his numbers, just suggesting that he's taken an awful big bite of data here. And I'm not sure how he came upon it. I can't help it - I'm a born cynic. Still, if I learn 1 thing from this book, a single bet can cover the expense.

eriadoc
07-20-2005, 05:41 PM
In the Vikings game last year it seemed to have dawned on DC that he could throw a ball higher than he would for most WR's even into tight double coverage and AJ would just go up and get it

If you're referring to the crossing route with the high pass at the back of the end zone, I watched them practice that play quite a bit in the free training camps last year, as well as before games in warm-ups. So I doubt it just dawned on him, but maybe the situation was right for him to hit it that way. I love that play, though. Aside from the falling on his head part (yikes!), I wouldn't mind seeing that play get utilized more frequently. Perhaps it's the injury potential of leaving your feet near a defender that's kept them from doing it.

JacksonvilleJaguar4
07-21-2005, 04:33 PM
I know what the vision cone is but say if you were playing whats the point of the cone and all that why does it matter, and what are the advantages of having a big vision cone compared to a smaller one? just curious

STEEL BLUE TEXANS
07-21-2005, 06:16 PM
You can only throw to receivers inside the vision cone.

Texan80Buc80fan+
07-21-2005, 10:44 PM
Carr IMO should have a great career with the Texans. He is a great QB and I'm very very happy for you guys down there in Houston. Carr to Johnson should be so much fun to watch for a decent number of years. You Texans are rising up the NFL charts and I'm very happy about that. :)

LikeABoss
07-22-2005, 01:08 AM
Why then is Carr Vision Cone so limited??? HUH!!!

http://sports.ign.com/articles/634/634981p13.html

It's better than Michael Vick's :heh:

JacksonvilleJaguar4
07-22-2005, 02:12 AM
I'll tell you who has a real nice vision cone who I didn't think would have one as big is Kurt Warner I'd certaintly start him over McCown in madden 06

JacksonvilleJaguar4
07-22-2005, 02:15 AM
it sucks to be a raven fan this year because both Boller and Wright have small vision cones

SESupergenius
07-22-2005, 12:04 PM
I find this guys comments interesting and intriging. From thefootballscientist.com. (http://www.thefootballscientist.com.) :

Least favorable matchup difference totals for quarterbacks:

Quarterback Difference

Tim Rattay -28.6
Patrick Ramsey -25.4
Byron Leftwich -24.9
Rex Grossman -23.85
David Carr -23.65

What I mean by matchup difference totals is the total grade of the offensive players minus the total grade of the defensive players. I measure the grade for the SE, FL, #3 receiver, TE, and QB and offset that versus the grades of both starting CBs, both safeties, and the nickel CB. For example, if an offense had an A, a B+, two Bs and a C, it would equal 15.5 points (4+3.5+3+3+2). If the defense had grades of A, two Bs, a B- and a C+, they would have 15.3 points (4+3+3+2.8+2.5). The offense would then get a difference rating of .2 for that game (15.5 minus 15.3).

I know these aren't the biggest name QBs on the board, but it does say a lot for them that their ratings are this low. Take David Carr for instance. I even say in my book, Scientific Football 2005, that he is one of the best talents in the NFL and does a terrific job on accuracy. He has such a poor set of receivers that despite playing in the AFC South (a division that should award QBs frequent flyer miles) and having a very good #1 receiver in Andre Johnson, Carr still hits near the bottom of QBs. On average, Carr's team has a nearly 2 point per game disadvantage. A grade shift of only 1/2 grade point (or .5) is actually very significant, and the Texans have an average of 4 of these per game!

These matchup ratings aren't the only way I measure players, but they are good ways to increase the percentages of picking a good player. I'll be updating the player grades throughout the 2005 season and will post some of my findings in future columns. It should be interesting to see how the player ratings move up and down!