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Playoffs
03-24-2014, 12:30 PM
ProFootballFocus Signature Stat -- WR Drop Rate, 2013 (https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/03/24/sig-stats-drop-rate-wrs/)
...
Often receivers have been lambasted for their numbers of drops and while that can be fair game, how can we compare one player dropping 20 balls when he is thrown 150, to another dropping six when he is thrown 40?

Well, what we’ve done is gather a few numbers to really answer which receivers have the best hands. Firstly, we’ve created the catchable balls number which adds up catches and drops. We then collect a percentage of how many drops a receiver had by their catchable balls, and presto! …you’ve got yourself a ‘drop rate’ — the best metric out there for determining the hands of receivers.

So then let’s see, out of wide receivers thrown at least 40 catchable balls, who is the top dog.

...it may catch some off guard that DeAndre Hopkins, who dropped just one of 53 catchable passes, finished second overall. While Hopkins didn’t quite hit the ground running as many hoped in Year 1, it owed more to being on a different wavelength than his quarterbacks than any physical limitations. With a more stable quarterback position in year two and a likely surge in targets, he’ll be a guy to watch to see how he develops. To no surprise he was the top rookie...


The good...
# Name Team Drops Catchable Drop Rate
1 LarryFitzgeraldARZ 1 83 1.20
2 DeAndre HopkinsHST 1 53 1.89
3 Jeremy Kerley NYJ 1 44 2.27
4 RishardMatthewsMIA 1 42 2.38
4 Vincent Brown SD 1 42 2.38
6 Cole Beasley DAL 1 40 2.50
7 James Jones GB 2 61 3.28
8 Marques ColstonNO 3 78 3.85
8 Doug Baldwin SEA 2 52 3.85
10 Andre Roberts ARZ 2 45 4.44
11 Golden Tate SEA 3 67 4.48
12 Austin Pettis SL 2 40 5.00
13 Alshon Jeffery CHI 5 94 5.32
14 Marvin Jones CIN 3 54 5.56
15 DeSean Jackson PHI 5 87 5.75

The bad...
# Name Team Drops Catchable Drop Rate
78 Davone Bess CLV 14 56 25.00
77 Kris Durham DET 10 48 20.83
76 Aaron Dobson NE 9 46 19.57
75 Greg Little CLV 8 49 16.33
74 Santana Moss WAS 8 50 16.00
73 Chris Givens SL 6 40 15.00
72 Brandon LaFell CAR 8 57 14.04
70 Vincent JacksonTB 12 90 13.33
70 Steve Johnson BUF 8 60 13.33
69 Cecil Shorts JAX 10 76 13.16
68 Mike Wallace MIA 11 84 13.10
67 BrandonMarshallCHI 15 115 13.04
66 Danny Amendola NE 8 62 12.90
65 Dwayne Bowe KC 8 65 12.31
64 Wes Welker DEN 10 83 12.05

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/03/24/sig-stats-drop-rate-wrs/

Goatcheese
03-24-2014, 12:45 PM
Fitz is just amazing and is on a completely different level from everyone else. Dude was born with baseball gloves instead of hands.

eriadoc
03-24-2014, 03:25 PM
I'd be curious to see where AJ ranked.

infantrycak
03-24-2014, 03:40 PM
Do they spell out their criteria for catchable? They sure are knocking off a bunch.

Larry Fitzgerald - tgts 136, 83 catchable -> 39% uncatchable.
DeAndre Hopkins - tgts 93, 53 catchable -> 43% uncatchable.

Marshall
03-24-2014, 03:42 PM
I'd be curious to see where AJ ranked.

I suspect pretty low last season. He had numerous drops of catchable balls. Far more than typical for him.

Playoffs
03-24-2014, 04:24 PM
I'd be curious to see where AJ ranked.
10 drops, 8.40% catch rate.

I'd have to use a spreadsheet to mirror their filters for this particular article but that puts him just in the top half for 2013.
Do they spell out their criteria for catchable?There's a dropped passes statistic, so receptions + dropped passes = catchable. PFF does their own charting/grading on targets/drops/etc.

Here's another website with their own criteria: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/

infantrycak
03-24-2014, 05:51 PM
10 drops, 8.40% catch rate.

I'd have to use a spreadsheet to mirror their filters for this particular article but that puts him just in the top half for 2013.

AJ does that. Goes 2 or 3 years with an excellent drop rate and then will have an off year often with most of the drops coming in 1-3 games.

There's a dropped passes statistic, so receptions + dropped passes = catchable. PFF does their own charting/grading on targets/drops/etc.

What about tipped/defensed? Are they carrying the same uncatchable stats over to QBs?

I remember a few years ago listening to an interview with a guy explaining how they did it (he was with a team) and they had an in the middle category for balls which weren't thrown so badly they would call it a misthrow for the QB but weren't thrown well enough that if the WR didn't catch it they counted it as a drop. So neither was getting dinged no matter whether the result was a reception or not.

Playoffs
03-24-2014, 06:26 PM
What about tipped/defensed? Are they carrying the same uncatchable stats over to QBs?...

Yeah, everything they do that I see makes common sense. Like NFL would award a sack to whichever defensive player was closest to a QB if the QB just tripped on his own feet and fell down -- they don't do that.

For QBs they have throw aways, hit as threw, batted passes, and spikes in addition to the standard stuff. Also passing with no pressure, under pressure, when blitzed, no blitz, as well as location metrics.

For me it gives consistent detailed information over time. Similar service would do the same, imo.

PHILLYTEXANFAN
03-24-2014, 09:43 PM
ProFootballFocus Signature Stat -- WR Drop Rate, 2013 (https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/03/24/sig-stats-drop-rate-wrs/)



https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/03/24/sig-stats-drop-rate-wrs/


http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/

This list is different


Your man... Pots and pans

paycheck71
03-24-2014, 11:51 PM
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/

This list is different


Your man... Pots and pans

The default sort on that list is the number of drops in descending order (from bad to good). When I resorted by the drop %age, I noticed that they don't have a minimum # of targets requirement, which makes it difficult to read. In any case, they have both Hopkins and Fitzgerald with 2 drops, somewhere near the top of the list.

The Pencil Neck
03-24-2014, 11:58 PM
The default sort on that list is the number of drops in descending order (from bad to good). When I resorted by the drop %age, I noticed that they don't have a minimum # of targets requirement, which makes it difficult to read. In any case, they have both Hopkins and Fitzgerald with 2 drops, somewhere near the top of the list.

They had OD with 0.