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View Full Version : Which QBs can help us win in 2014?


thunderkyss
02-25-2014, 01:11 PM
If you guys think this should be merged into another thread, maybe it should be in the "2014 QB class not that great (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=103684)" thread. But I think this discussion should be different enough to warrant it's own thread.

& I'm going to make it a poll.

It's obvious some of us has "our guy" some of us has a list of guys... some have a long list, some have a very short list. I think that list is the biggest factor that will influence whether you support taking a QB with the first pick or not.

I don't think we should use it on a QB because I feel just as good about #6 on my list as I do with #1... actually the guy I've got at #1 has been mocked as low as the 5th round. But... I'd probably take him in the 2nd.

1. Aj McCarron
2. Aaron Murray
3. Johnny Manziel
4. Teddy Bridgewater
5. David Fales
6. Blake Bortles

Any of those guys being drafted in the first round makes sense to me. Aj & Murray I'd have no problem starting day 1. The other guys I'd want to ease them into the game..... if we're being blown out, or if we're blowing the other team out, that kind of thing. So if I'm looking at the mocks & I feel like I could get McCarron or Murray with a 2nd..... I'm not drafting a QB with the #1 overall.

How about you, what's your list?

htownfan32
02-25-2014, 01:31 PM
1. Teddy Bridgewater
2. Johnny Manziel
3. Zach Mettenberger
4. Blake Bortles
5. Aaron Murray
6. Derek Carr


McCarron and Fales are not good enough IMO (certainly not now, though perhaps later they could develop into serviceable starters), Garoppolo is an unknown quantity to me.

kiwitexansfan
02-25-2014, 02:15 PM
I voted for those who I knew ran pro-style offenses.

Those players have the smallest adjustment to make so can help most straight away.

Don't necessarily think they are the best QBs in this draft but I took your question to me who could step in right away.

Playoffs
02-25-2014, 02:18 PM
Everyone except Bieber and Johnny Football. :fishing:

The Pencil Neck
02-25-2014, 02:22 PM
If there were a "none of the above" option, I would have probably picked that.

Maybe I'm old fashioned, but I don't expect a rookie QB to give you a chance to win.

If we draft one of these QBs high (even Bridgewater) and play that QB his rookie season, my expectation is that we're going to lose more games than we win in 2014. Given that, of these guys, I expect Bridgewater to be the only one who would come in and give us an immediate chance of success.

That's why I'd prefer to draft Robinson or Watkins and then, if I'm going to HAVE to draft a QB, I'll go with someone like Garoppolo later. If it were totally up to me, I might not even select any of this year's QBs.

LikeMike
02-25-2014, 02:30 PM
If there were a "none of the above" option, I would have probably picked that.

Maybe I'm old fashioned, but I don't expect a rookie QB to give you a chance to win.

If we draft one of these QBs high (even Bridgewater) and play that QB his rookie season, my expectation is that we're going to lose more games than we win in 2014. Given that, of these guys, I expect Bridgewater to be the only one who would come in and give us an immediate chance of success.

That's why I'd prefer to draft Robinson or Watkins and then, if I'm going to HAVE to draft a QB, I'll go with someone like Garoppolo later. If it were totally up to me, I might not even select any of this year's QBs.

Just a serious question: where do you expect to get a QB from in the future? I understand the line of thinking, and usually I am all for building the trenches first, but this year we have the unique chance to pick whichever QB we like, and 3 of them ar projected top 10 talents. So this year we can just take who we want.

Next season we probably won`t have the number 1 pick. We probably won`t even have a top 5 pick. If a QB is a better prospect than any of this years guys, then they will go top 1 (or if there is more than one they will all be gone in the top 3) - especially since this years draft is deep and has a talent like Clowney. So if the plan is to draft a QB in the future, well you either have to tank (something our team should be too good for and it wouldn`t be fair to AJ and some of the other "older" talents, or even to Watt), or trade away a whole draft (and I am not even sure if that`s enough, if a prospect like Luck would be available).

So FA? Well, if a QB hits FA there usually is something wrong with him. You have to be extremely lucky here. Trade? You basically can only trade for guys that are on the bench. They are there for a reason... sure, you can be lucky and get a good QB, but the chances are not very good.

So I totally understand not wanting to draft a QB if we don`t believe in him. But people need to understand, that this year is the unique chance to just take the player we like best out of all draftable players. So we really should take a real hard look at all QBs there, because this chance might not come again...

thunderkyss
02-25-2014, 02:44 PM
Next season we probably won`t have the number 1 pick. We probably won`t even have a top 5 pick. If a QB is a better prospect than any of this years guys, then they will go top 1 (or if there is more than one they will all be gone in the top 3) - especially since this years draft is deep and has a talent like Clowney. So if the plan is to draft a QB in the future, well you either have to tank

You make it sound like the only way to get a decent QB is with the #1 overall pick, or even a top 5 pick.

But... Aaron Rodgers was taken with the 23rd overall pick. I don't ever hear "Aaron Rodgers" & "exception to the rule" being thrown out there. Dalton & Kaepernick... not expetions to the rule. You may not like Dalton, but the kid has put together a solid NFL career to date.

Joe Flacco was taken @ 18, the Broncos didn't have to sell their future to get Cutler, who's with the Bears now. Roetlisberger was an 11th overall pick & Schaub was taken in the third round of that draft.

Drew Brees was a 2nd round pick, Pennington was taken with 18, Cullpepper at 11, Charlie Batch & Jake Plummer were 2nd round picks.

Bottom line though... just because we take a QB with the #1 overall, does not make him elite, or a franchise QB, or whatever you want to call it.

My only problem with the Texans & Schaub..... they stopped looking for a special guy. I loved 2009 Schaub & if that guy came back for 2010, I wouldn't have been frustrated with the Texans not going after a better QB. But then we got to 2011, then 2012.... & the best we've brought in was Tj Yates.

LikeMike
02-25-2014, 02:51 PM
You are right, but you get the best odds when you have the pick of the litter.

Sure a QB that is not drafted in the top 10 might be special - but how often has that happened out of all the QBs picked? How big is the chance? IŽd say lower than 5%.

Now with a top 5 QB? IŽd say that chance increases to perhaps 40%. Top 1? Perhaps 50%. Still not great numbers, but significantly higher than if you pick your QB later.

And I don`t think many people here would be satisfied with a Dalton like player - that`s basically Schaub (he had a traumatic bad season last year, before that he was a middle of the pack guy like Dalton).

Trade? Cutler was a hefty price and I don`t know if all Bears fans are happy with their QB (though the O-Line probably plays a bigger role there). Palmer was another trade like that and didn`t work out. Trades are costly and don`t guarantee a thing - and trades for potential franchise QBs are even rarer than late round gems.

The Pencil Neck
02-25-2014, 02:58 PM
Just a serious question: where do you expect to get a QB from in the future?

What if you draft the highest rated QB you've got in this draft and he turns out to be Blaine Gabbert?

I think it's a big mistake to take the best QB of a lukewarm QB draft just because you've got the first pick in the draft. Sometimes there's no "quarterback of the future" available.

In 2007, the quarterbacks were Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, Jon Beck, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards, Isaiah Stanback, Jeff Rowe, Troy Smith, Jordan Palmer, and Tyler Thigpen. That's just total fail. The year before, the quarterbacks were Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Brad Smith, Ingle Martin, Omar Jacobs, Reggie McNeal, Bruce Gradkowski, and D.J. Shockley. Some people like Cutler but honestly, he hasn't done anything but have potential.

Some years, you're better off stockpiling great talent (like Watkins) even if it doesn't address your immediate needs. Or addressing a different position by getting a great player who's going to be a great NFL player (like Robinson or Matthews.) Or even taking a risk on a boom/bust player like Clowney.

I can only address the "QB of the Future" if there's a guy available who can do that. Drafting Jamarcus Russell doesn't address the QB of the Future issue and drafting Bortles, Manziel, or Bridgewater might have the exact same result as drafting a Jamarcus Russell. In that case, it's better just passing on the QB and improving the team so that a not-so-great QB can be put into a better position than wasting a high draft pick on a guy that's going to turn out to be a career backup.

That's not a satisfying answer. I would love to be able to get our QB of the Future with the first pick. But I don't think any of these guys are it.

LikeMike
02-25-2014, 03:02 PM
That`s fair. And of course, if there is no guy we believe in I don`t want us to take him.

I just think that this years class isn`t half as bad. 3 guys are usually rated in the top 10. Take a look at last year, we had no QB rated in the top 10. Bridgewater is often rated in the top 4...

IŽd just say: if we don`t fall in love with a QB or Clowney, then trade down. Get draft picks, preferably a first next year from a team like the Jags or the Browns, so that we at least have some ammunition.

The Pencil Neck
02-25-2014, 03:08 PM
You are right, but you get the best odds when you have the pick of the litter.

Sure a QB that is not drafted in the top 10 might be special - but how often has that happened out of all the QBs picked? How big is the chance? IŽd say lower than 5%.

Now with a top 5 QB? IŽd say that chance increases to perhaps 40%. Top 1? Perhaps 50%. Still not great numbers, but significantly higher than if you pick your QB later.

And I don`t think many people here would be satisfied with a Dalton like player - that`s basically Schaub (he had a traumatic bad season last year, before that he was a middle of the pack guy like Dalton).

Trade? Cutler was a hefty price and I don`t know if all Bears fans are happy with their QB (though the O-Line probably plays a bigger role there). Palmer was another trade like that and didn`t work out. Trades are costly and don`t guarantee a thing - and trades for potential franchise QBs are even rarer than late round gems.

From 2000-2010, here are the guys that were drafted in the top 10.

2000: no one.
2001: Mike Vick.
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington.
2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich.
2004: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers.
2005: Alex Smith.
2006: Vince Young, Matt Leinart.
2007: Jamarcus Russell.
2008: Matt Ryan.
2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez.
2010: Sam Bradford.

Just think how much happier the Raiders fans would be right now if they'd taken Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, or Calvin Johnson instead of Jamarcus Russell. Hell... even Patrick Willis.

_King_
02-25-2014, 03:09 PM
Teddy bridgewater.

LikeMike
02-25-2014, 03:20 PM
From 2000-2010, here are the guys that were drafted in the top 10.

2000: no one.
2001: Mike Vick.
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington.
2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich.
2004: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers.
2005: Alex Smith.
2006: Vince Young, Matt Leinart.
2007: Jamarcus Russell.
2008: Matt Ryan.
2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez.
2010: Sam Bradford.



So 15 QBs taken, 6 that I would consider hits. And Bradford might be another hit (injuries make it hard to tell). So my around 40% mark wasn`t that bad.

Now if you`d expand that list to QBs taken after the 10th pick and before the 6th round, you`d probably have a hit rate of 2%. If you get that between the 11th pick and the end of round 3, you probably have a 5-10% hit rate.

The Raiders fell in love with Russells arm strength - there were majory concerns around him, not unlike Clowney.

In my mind it is better to swing the bat on a QB that you and most scouts in the country believe in, than to never get the QB you need. You have to take chances to get a franchise guy.

jradMIT
02-25-2014, 03:28 PM
That's Why I think its Bridgewater, he has the least bust potential. High floor, can't really see him being an abject failure unless his body doesn't hold up.

thunderkyss
02-25-2014, 03:56 PM
You are right, but you get the best odds when you have the pick of the litter.

Sure a QB that is not drafted in the top 10 might be special - but how often has that happened out of all the QBs picked? How big is the chance? IŽd say lower than 5%.

Now with a top 5 QB? IŽd say that chance increases to perhaps 40%. Top 1? Perhaps 50%. Still not great numbers, but significantly higher than if you pick your QB later.


I think you're looking at it backwards. If the QB in question fit what has traditionally been the prototype for a #1 overall selection..... yes. 50/50 might be low. But none of these QBs do. If we didn't have the #1 overall pick, we'd feel fairly confident one or two of the same guys would fall out of the top 10.

But since we need a QB & we have the #1 overall pick... these QBs start to look a whole lot better to some of us. It's like it's 10 minutes to closing, we're 3 sheets to the wind, & we haven't found "Mrs. RightNow" yet.

You're going to hate yourself in the morning.

LikeMike
02-25-2014, 04:19 PM
I think you're looking at it backwards. If the QB in question fit what has traditionally been the prototype for a #1 overall selection..... yes. 50/50 might be low. But none of these QBs do. If we didn't have the #1 overall pick, we'd feel fairly confident one or two of the same guys would fall out of the top 10.

But since we need a QB & we have the #1 overall pick... these QBs start to look a whole lot better to some of us. It's like it's 10 minutes to closing, we're 3 sheets to the wind, & we haven't found "Mrs. RightNow" yet.

You're going to hate yourself in the morning.

Well that is just personal judgement (not saying that it is wrong, just that it is debateable). True, people don`t see a Luck prospect this year, but several QBs are rated pretty high.

Personally I see a big dropoff this year. Bridgewater seems to be a safe pick that could turn into something special. Manziel has special talent that could bust. I already see some dropoff to Bortles, who I don`t believe will be special, but I really like his clutch play. Beyond that I don`t see anyone I believe in. Some might make good backups, some might even get a few starts, but I don`t see a legitimate starter here. I may be wrong, but to me those top 2 QBs are worth to take a flyer on because they bring something to the table, that no other QB in the draft does.

The Pencil Neck
02-25-2014, 05:07 PM
So 15 QBs taken, 6 that I would consider hits. And Bradford might be another hit (injuries make it hard to tell). So my around 40% mark wasn`t that bad.

It all depends on how you look at it.

Eli Manning has won 2 SBs and then no one else from that list has. Philip Rivers had some good years.

Mike Vick was exciting but ultimately, he was a bit of a bust. Ryan and Stafford at this point still have potential but they've never been considered elite or even second tier. Carson Palmer flirted with being elite but it never materialized and now he's turned into a journeyman.

So, for me, taking a QB in the top 10 is much, much more bust than boom because I'd consider that 2 hits out of 15.

PapaL
02-25-2014, 05:27 PM
Matt Schaub.

aussie_texan
02-25-2014, 07:06 PM
Teddy bridgewater
Johnny Manziel
Zach Mettenberger
Aaron Murray

steelbtexan
02-25-2014, 08:12 PM
Where is the none of the above option?

Playoffs
02-25-2014, 08:37 PM
Where is the none of the above option?

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=103555

steelbtexan
02-25-2014, 09:13 PM
Just a serious question: where do you expect to get a QB from in the future? I understand the line of thinking, and usually I am all for building the trenches first, but this year we have the unique chance to pick whichever QB we like, and 3 of them ar projected top 10 talents. So this year we can just take who we want.

Next season we probably won`t have the number 1 pick. We probably won`t even have a top 5 pick. If a QB is a better prospect than any of this years guys, then they will go top 1 (or if there is more than one they will all be gone in the top 3) - especially since this years draft is deep and has a talent like Clowney. So if the plan is to draft a QB in the future, well you either have to tank (something our team should be too good for and it wouldn`t be fair to AJ and some of the other "older" talents, or even to Watt), or trade away a whole draft (and I am not even sure if that`s enough, if a prospect like Luck would be available).

So FA? Well, if a QB hits FA there usually is something wrong with him. You have to be extremely lucky here. Trade? You basically can only trade for guys that are on the bench. They are there for a reason... sure, you can be lucky and get a good QB, but the chances are not very good.

So I totally understand not wanting to draft a QB if we don`t believe in him. But people need to understand, that this year is the unique chance to just take the player we like best out of all draftable players. So we really should take a real hard look at all QBs there, because this chance might not come again...

Good Post

Don't worry the Texans have a history of picking 1st every 5/6 yrs. Especially with Rick Smith being in charge.

Would you agree that the Texans would have a good improvement at 6-10 next yr? That would probably mean a top 10 pick. There are 3 QB's better than any QB in this draft. IMHO (Winston/Hundley/Mariota) That means you probably would only have to move up 5 spots or so at the most to get one of these QB's. That would mean giving up a 1st/ 3rd and a 2016 1st to move up and get a better QB next yr.

I also advocate taking Garappolo or Murray in the 3rd this yr to hedge my bets.

steelbtexan
02-25-2014, 09:16 PM
http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=103555

LOL, BTW I voted for Robinson after a trade down.

I just don't want any of the QB's at 1-1 this yr.

infantrycak
02-25-2014, 09:56 PM
Don't worry the Texans have a history of picking 1st every 5/6 yrs. Especially with Rick Smith being in charge.

Crystal ball's in overdrive tonight. This is Rick Smith's 1st #1 pick.

ObsiWan
02-26-2014, 02:32 AM
If there were a "none of the above" option, I would have probably picked that.

Maybe I'm old fashioned, but I don't expect a rookie QB to give you a chance to win.

If we draft one of these QBs high (even Bridgewater) and play that QB his rookie season, my expectation is that we're going to lose more games than we win in 2014. Given that, of these guys, I expect Bridgewater to be the only one who would come in and give us an immediate chance of success.

That's why I'd prefer to draft Robinson or Watkins and then, if I'm going to HAVE to draft a QB, I'll go with someone like Garoppolo later. If it were totally up to me, I might not even select any of this year's QBs.

This is where I am.

As great as Peyton Manning turned out to be, his rookie year that Colts team went 3-13. ...and that's with two Hall of Fame quality weapons in Marshall Faulk and Marvin Harrison at his disposal.

The rookie QBs that have had success, Roethlisberger, R. Wilson, A. Luck, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford have had good-to-great offensive weapons, pretty decent defenses, or solid running games (well, maybe not Luck on the running game) supporting them.

I'm not sure where we are defensively and not certain that Foster will return to his pre-back injury productivity levels.

If it were me, and I know I've said this over and over again, but I'd use the first three picks to bolster the O-line and defense (pass rusher and ILB who can cover). It doesn't have to be in that order but I'd address those needs first. Then I'd snag someone like Bret Smith in the 4th.

So I voted Bret Smith but that doesn't mean I take him at 1-1 or 2-1.

ObsiWan
02-26-2014, 02:42 AM
Don't worry the Texans have a history of picking 1st every 5/6 yrs. Especially with Rick Smith being in charge.

That's revisionist history com padre; the first two 1-1 picks of this franchise belonged to one each C. Casserly.

Now if you had said, with Robert McNair as owner....

Marshall
02-26-2014, 05:31 AM
I was looking for:
Schaub
Keenum
Yates

But they weren't there.

thunderkyss
02-26-2014, 07:14 AM
I was looking for:
Schaub
Keenum
Yates

But they weren't there.

I was restricted to 10 & wanted to capture most of the 1st,2nd, & 3rd round prospect. Trying to gauge how "we" have these guys graded. So far, there are a lot of people who think only 2 of these QBs can make this team better in 2014.

With that in mind, it's easier to understand the push to draft one in the first, even with 1-1.... it makes sense if you think there are only 2.

But you make a good point. It is possible that someone thinks the book on Yates/Keenum, at least, should not be closed just yet... & to some extent Schaub. Which would also influence how we handle the draft.

Corrosion
02-26-2014, 07:25 AM
Whats your definition of win ?


A playoff appearance as a rookie?! - Manziel.

Winning 5 or more games?! - Bortles , Bridgewater , Garoppolo , Manziel.

Long term starters with playoff potential?! - Bortles , Bridgewater , Carr , Garoppolo , Manziel , Mettenberger.


Sleeper with a high ceiling ?! - Brett Smith.

Biggest bust potential?! - Manziel.