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Playoffs
01-17-2014, 12:02 PM
In playoffs, it's all about defense (not QBs) (http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/83083/in-playoffs-its-all-about-defense-not-qbs)
Much of the focus heading into Sunday’s Conference Championship games will be on the quarterback play, particularly with future Hall of Famers Tom Brady and Peyton Manning facing off for the fourth time in their postseason careers.

But if recent playoff history is any indication, it’s not the quarterbacks who will have the most impact on which teams get a trip to MetLife Stadium, but rather the defenses’ ability to stop those quarterbacks that will make a bigger difference...

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2014/0116/nfl_r_qbr2_mb_576x324.jpg
A more rigorous analysis using multiple regression shows that the quarterback’s QBR entering the game is still significant in the postseason, but the defense’s QBR allowed becomes more predictive in the postseason. The small sample size of the postseason means that this pattern might be due to random fluctuation, but the trend is still something worth keeping an eye on.

Bulls on Parade
01-17-2014, 12:34 PM
If it's all about defense then we better draft Jadeveon Clowney number one overall and hope Brian Cushing returns to All Pro form. That would be a nice start for us to dominate Andrew Luck and the Colts for the next several years. Including beating them at Indy many times which we've done zero times so far. I can see us winning a Super Bowl or two with a dominating defense. A strong pass rush will lead to turnovers forced which lead to wins.

HJam72
01-17-2014, 02:07 PM
I don't actually disagree, but I still say the QB is the most important individual position by far. Maybe we still take Clowney and get some other QB in the future. I don't know. Problem is I don't feel real comfortable getting a starting QB this year who is SUPPOSED to be our future guy and not taking him with a top 10 overall pick, although I suppose we could take some guy in the 2nd round and plan to possibly trade him in the future?

Sure wish there was just another Luck this year to spend that #1 on. Some no-doubter.

Playoffs
01-17-2014, 03:20 PM
If it's all about defense then we better draft Jadeveon Clowney number one overall...

I don't actually disagree, but I still say the QB is the most important individual position by far...

Note that defense against QBRs is much less impactful in the regular season: The regular season trend is almost flat, showing that defensive quality has minimal impact on how well a quarterback plays in those games.

So basically you need a great QB to get to the playoffs, but then a defense that limits QBRs for postseason success.

ArlingtonTexan
01-17-2014, 06:41 PM
I think this is accurate. It seems that in the last decade or so, teams like the colts and Pats won when they had their best defenses. also, good defensive teams like the Ravens and Giants won the QB got hot.

Long term, the QB gives a team a chance for the better part of a generation year -in year out. Because of simple more moving parts and the salary cap, a great unit, defense or OL, will get broken up for the normal variety of reasons.

handswarmer
01-18-2014, 08:30 AM
I think Kaepernick and Flacco showed that you need a QB....


Last year's Ravens defense was pedestrian during the season and came alive during the playoffs....

The Ravens defense wasn't really that good

LikeMike
01-18-2014, 09:27 AM
Note that defense against QBRs is much less impactful in the regular season:

So basically you need a great QB to get to the playoffs, but then a defense that limits QBRs for postseason success.

I would say it is like this: in the regular season the teams with the best QBs usually face teams with worse QBs. In the playoffs basically all teams have a great QB so other factors decide. Basically you still need a QB first and foremost, but in the playoffs thats not enough. And note that a defense consists of 11 players, a QB is only one player - of course a whole defense has a big impact.

Of course teams with an average QB can win, as long as he either is clutch or does very few mistakes. But usually, the team that Wins it all has at least and above average QB.

BruceWayne
01-18-2014, 10:20 PM
i think kaepernick and flacco showed that you need a qb....


Last year's ravens defense was pedestrian during the season and came alive during the playoffs....

The ravens defense wasn't really that good

this.

ArlingtonTexan
01-19-2014, 12:28 AM
this.

I would argue more people would have bet on a defense with (Lewis, Suggs, Reed, Ngata) getting together than Joe Flacco. the defense and QB both came together in the playoffs last year, but acting lack a defense with at least 4 legitimate all-pro players in various parts of their career was more a surprise than Joe Flacco playing out of his ass proves the point if anything.

gtexan02
01-19-2014, 07:53 AM
When the stat being used is qbr it kind of makes the point silly