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View Full Version : Analyzing Statistics of Top 4 QB's (Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr, & Manziel)


WolverineFan
01-16-2014, 04:05 PM
For the past week or so, I have been trying to compare each of the top QBís in this class. My research is inclusive to, what seems to be, the consensus top 4 QBís in this draft class (Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, and Johnny Manziel). I'll jump right out and say that I, personally, don't put Carr in that group but the media seems to have him pegged as the other 1st round guy so I added him.

While digging through each QB, I went through a bunch of stats and found some pretty interesting ones for each player. I plan to go through the ones that stood out to me the most. I will note ahead of time that my results for the players would make for an excruciatingly long post. Therefore, I will break each one up to make it easier to follow and to quote (if you wish to reply). Replies are welcome because, after all, I did all of this in the name of debate and wish to hear your opinions on the info and on each QB.

I plan to continue working on this for a little while longer. This will probably end up being a 4 or 5 part series. If the first few are popular then I will continue adding the others as I go on. With that said, here we goÖÖ

disaacks3
01-16-2014, 04:09 PM
Drum Roll...

WolverineFan
01-16-2014, 04:11 PM
Interesting Stat for Derek Carr: INT rate by half
- Carr threw a much higher percentage of INTís in the 2nd half than in the 1st half.

Stats:
o Bortles
 7 INTís on 226 1st half attempts (1 INT every 32.3 passes)
 2 INTís on 156 2nd half attempts (1 INT every 78 passes)
 In 2013 Ė 9 INTís on 382 attempts (1 INT every 42.4 passes)

o Bridgewater
 3 INTís on 231 1st half attempts (1 INT every 77 passes)
 1 INT on 196 2nd half attempts (1 INT every 196 passes)
 In 2013 Ė 4 INTís on 427 attempts (1 INT every 106.8 passes)

o Carr
 2 INTís on 389 1st half attempts (1 INT every 194.5 passes)
 6 INTís on 270 2nd half attempts (1 INT every 45 passes)
 In 2013 Ė 8 INTís on 659 attempts (1 INT every 82.4 passes)

o Manziel
 7 INTís on 264 1st half attempts (1 INT every 37.7 passes)
 6 INTís on 165 2nd half attempts (1 INT every 27.5 passes)
 In 2013 Ė 13 INTís on 429 attempts (1 INT every 33 passes)

Findings:
- Carr had an astronomically higher INT rate in the 2nd half than in the 1st half, thatís what stood out to me the most during this section.
- Bortles had the worst INT rate in the 1st half, but the 2nd best INT rate in the 2nd half.
- Bridgewater had the best INT rate in the 2nd half and overall.
- Manziel had the worst INT rate in the 2nd half and overall.

- Bortles and Bridgewater both had much better INT rates in the 2nd half than in the 1st half.
- Manziel and Carr both had worse INT rates in the 2nd half than in the 1st half, although Manzielís was just a slight difference while Carrís was significant.


*These stats do not take SOS into effect. They are just INT rates on the season as a whole or splits by half. They are pure numbers and do not take competition into effect.


The following is the average defensive rank faced by each QB. Note: I did not account for FCS teams (UCF was the only team not to play an FCS opponent).

Bortles Ė faced average defense rank of 53.2
Bridgewater Ė faced average defense rank of 62.5
Carr Ė faced average defense rank of 84.1
Manziel Ė faced average defense rank of 52.8


- Carr played the easiest competition by far. I think we all were aware of that beforehand. Surprisingly, Manziel and Bortles played against pretty much the same defensive rank, which was tougher than Carrís by a mile (again, no surprise). Bridgewater was somewhere in between, but closer to Manziel and Bortles than Carr. I give Manziel the edge in toughest competition because, despite Bortles facing an average rank that is almost matching, Manziel plays against better athletes in the SEC.

WolverineFan
01-16-2014, 04:16 PM
Here is my take on Carr...

Carr throws a pretty low amount of INT’s per pass attempt (1 INT every 82.4 pass attempts). However, this can be deceiving because (as we saw in the Rotoworld columns earlier this week) 33% of his attempts are screen passes and 26% of his passes are inside of 5 yards. This means that almost 60% of his pass attempts travel less than 5 yards in the air. Keep in mind that he also played the weakest competition of the 4 QB’s by far. I think the style of offense, being a QB friendly system requiring easy throws, and the fact that he did not play a tough schedule is the reason for his excellent INT rate.

IMO, the reason for the rise in INT’s in the 2nd half is because that style of offense is not always sustainable throughout a game. Sometimes you play a good defense or you need to score quickly and you cannot afford to march down the field with short passes. I think his rise in INT’s has to do with him having to push the ball down the field later in close games and, seeing as how the majority of his passes are extremely short, he is either not used to making these throws or just not as comfortable throwing them. I think the stats point this out with his average intermediate accuracy (64%) and below average deep accuracy (44%), again per Rotoworld. I think it also has a lot to do with his accuracy under pressure (50% against pressure compared to 80% against no pressure, per Rotoworld). When he has to stand in the pocket and scan the field, instead of throwing a bubble screen or slant route, the pass rush has a better chance of getting there. He is obviously much more comfortable getting the ball out quickly.

He seems to be a guy who will complete the short passes the offense requires of him, but when the stakes raise and the pressure amps up he is not comfortable at all. Again, his INT rate isn’t awful by any means, but I find it noteworthy that it is noticeably worse in the 2nd half than in the 1st half.

WolverineFan
01-16-2014, 04:32 PM
My take on Bridgewater...

Bridgewater throws an exceptionally low amount of INTís overall (1 INT every 106.8 pass attempts). Keep in mind that he does this against somewhat weak competition (average defense rank of 62.5). Nowhere near as weak as Carrís competition (avg. rank of 84.1), but not quite the same strength as Bortles (53.2) or Manziel (52.8). However the fact that he does this, while playing in a pro-style offense, is impressive to me. He is not lining up in shotgun every play and getting the call from the sidelines. He isnít relying on his coaches to make all of his pre-snap reads and adjustments for him. He does all of this himself. His OC calls multiple plays in the huddle and, after the offense lines up, Bridgewater is in charge of reading the defense and getting the offense in the right play. He then has to make adjustments if there are any that need to be made and make pre-snap reads on coverages and protection schemes. He does all of this before the snap by himself. Thatís NFL-level QB work. Rarely does a college QB have that much command of the offense.

Not only that, but once he does all of this, he still has to run the play. Most of these plays are 3,5, or 7-step drops from under-center (just like the NFL) and he is making full field reads on his progressions, in contrast to focusing on halves or floods like many spread systems. I think a few reasons for his INTís being so low areÖ

1) He obviously works on taking care of the ball.
2) He doesnít play against a ton of great defenses.
3) His team is probably leading fairly often in the 2nd half, so he doesnít have to risk turning the ball over.

I think, when it comes to Bridgewater's production, level of competition is probably the only knock on him. He has torn up good defenses and bad defenses, but there is no way of knowing if he can do that on a consistent basis because he's never had to. With that said, it is still pretty impressive that he rarely turns the ball over, especially late in games.

Texian
01-16-2014, 04:55 PM
I'll jump right out and say that I, personally, don't put Carr in that group but the media seems to have him pegged as the other 1st round guy so I added him.

If you think you're smarter than the media very high probability to you are. Make your own mistakes, not the medias. As a result you'll be right more often.

WolverineFan
01-16-2014, 04:57 PM
My take on Bortles...

Bortles throws INTís at a much higher rate than Carr or Bridgewater overall. However, he also plays a tougher schedule than Bridgewater and a much tougher schedule than Carr. He had the highest rate of INTís in the 1st half, but his INT rate drops way down in the 2nd half. I take from this that his team is usually ahead in the 2nd half (significantly more pass attempts in the 1st half) but also that he takes better care of the ball late in the game. Like with Bridgewater, this is huge positive. Being able to keep possession with a lead is very important. This is a big change from last year and earlier this year when Bortles lost some games with late turnovers. Thatís a sign that his game is starting to mature.

You saw in the Baylor game that he struggled out of the gate and turned the ball over early, but came right back and scored TDís on the next 2 possessions and was money in the 2nd half. You never like a guy to turn the ball over, but you definitely like a guy who gets stronger as the game goes on. Bortles ability to deliver late in games is clutch.

WolverineFan
01-16-2014, 05:16 PM
My take on Manziel...

Manziel had the highest rate of INTís overall and the highest rate in the 2nd half. He also had the 2nd highest INT rate in the 1st half. I think a lot of this can be explained easily. Most of his INTís came against good competition (11 of his 13 INTís were in SEC play) and he also tends to make risky throws because of his aggressive and carefree playing style. Many of his 2nd half INTís were thrown with the lead. Thatís not a good trait to have. There is no reason to be so risky with the ball when you have a lead, but thatís the way Manziel plays. One of the best things about him is also one of the worst; he never gives up on a play.

He seemed to mature a lot this year as a player. He ran less and made more of an effort to stay in the pocket and make throws. However, he is still way too liberal with the ball. He needs it drilled into his head that playing by the seat of your pants is not always the best move. Sometimes, you need to know when a play is dead and move on to the next one. Heís the most exciting QB in the draft, and yet, also the most frustrating.

aussie_texan
01-16-2014, 06:00 PM
Its such a coin flip between TB, JF and BB for me. hopefully this series of work your going to do helps formulate a more concrete opinion for me, nice work so far.

Playoffs
01-16-2014, 08:34 PM
Would be interested in Mettenberger and Brett Smith, too. :gamer:

bah007
01-16-2014, 10:26 PM
Carr...He seems to be a guy who will complete the short passes the offense requires of him, but when the stakes raise and the pressure amps up he is not comfortable at all...

Geez who does that remind you of? :toropalm:

Is he related to any former Houston QBs?

bah007
01-16-2014, 10:33 PM
The problem with analysis like this is that inevitably this thread is going to turn into all the posters playing favorites and using specific stats to help their arguments while ignoring others.

Having said that, this is great stuff so far and you should definitely continue.

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 01:54 PM
For the next part in the series, we will be talking about TD:INT rates when winning, tied, or trailing. By this, of course, I mean how many TD's & INT's did a guy throw when his team was losing compared to when his team was winning.

Because of the length, I will break up each post individually to keep things clean.

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 02:00 PM
Blake Bortles

- Overall: 25 TDís & 9 INTís on 382 Pass Attempts
o 1 TD every 15.3 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 42.4 Pass Attempts

- When Losing: 10 TDís & 3 INTís (139 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 13.9 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 46.3 Pass Attempts

- When Tied: 3 TDís and 2 INTís (59 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 19.7 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 29.5 Pass Attempts

- When Winning: 12 TDís and 4 INTís (184 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 15.3 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 46 Pass Attempts


*The first thing that I notice is that Bortles numbers seem to be mostly consistent whether his team is winning or losing. He throws TDís at a slightly better percentage when losing. He also throws INTís at a higher percentage when tied. The numbers say that he tends to play slightly better when winning or losing than when tied, but he only threw 59 passes this year when tied so I wouldnít put much stock in that decline. Bortles led an unsuccessful 4th quarter comeback against South Carolina (2 4th quarter TDís). However, his INT in the 4th quarter really hurt their chances of coming back. He also led 4th quarter comebacks against Louisville, Temple, and South Florida; throwing the winning score in all 3 games.

*I think it is of note that both of his 2nd half INTís this year came late in the 4th quarter in close games (South Carolina & South Florida). He pulled out the victory in one of those games. I called him clutch in the last segment, and his four 4th quarter comebacks (3 successful) prove that out. He did have some not clutch INT's in a few of those situations though.


*His overall ďTD per Pass AttemptĒ percentage is the lowest of all 4 QBís (15.3 attempts per TD). This is not all that surprising because UCF was the most run heavy team of all 4 teams, throwing the ball just 47% of the time. The TD stats align though with 48% of UCFís offensive TDís coming from the passing game.

Corrosion
01-17-2014, 02:03 PM
I'm with you , I don't think Carr belongs in the conversation - His #'s against the blitz are .... not appealing.

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 02:04 PM
Teddy Bridgewater

- Overall: 27 TD’s & 4 INT’s on 395 Pass Attempts
o 1 TD every 14.6 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 98.8 Pass Attempts

- When Losing: 2 TD’s & 0 INT’s (38 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 19 Pass Attempts
o 0 INT’s

- When Tied: 8 TD’s & 0 INT’s (65 Pass attempts)
o 1 TD every 8.1 Pass Attempts
o 0 INT’s

- When Winning: 17 TD’s & 4 INT’s (292 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 17.2 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 73 Pass Attempts


*What immediately jumps out to me is that Bridgewater threw 0 INT’s when his team was losing or tied. I think that falls in line with the belief that he is great about taking care of the ball. He did throw 4 INT’s when leading, but his rate of 79.8 attempts per INT when leading was the highest of all QB’s. This guy takes care of the ball. He had the worst TD rate of all the QB’s when trailing, however he only threw 38 passes while losing all year. This was odd so I dug deeper. What I found was that Louisville only trailed for 35 minutes this entire season. And 20 of those minutes were in one game (Cincinnati). Louisville only faced deficits against 4 of their 13 opponents this year. However, Bridgewater was able to win all of those games except one (UCF). In the UCF game he led a drive to take the lead with 4 minutes left in the game. However, UCF scored with 23 seconds left to win the game. Despite the fact that he has hardly any experience playing from behind, I think Bridgewater has proven that he can do it. With that said, I think we all would prefer a QB have much more of that experience than he seems to have. Bridgewater played with a lead a lot. However, he was also great about protecting a lead so take that for what you will.


*His overall “TD per pass attempt” rate was the 2nd lowest of the 4 QB’s. However, his INT rate is better than all 4 QB’s in all phases. Louisville was the 2nd most run heavy team of the 4, throwing the ball 49% of the time. However, the passing game accounted for a shocking 65% of the offensive TD’s, a much bigger split than any of the other 4 teams.

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 02:07 PM
Derek Carr

- Overall: 50 TDís & 8 INTís on 659 Pass Attempts
o 1 TD every 13.2 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 82.4 Pass Attempts

- When Losing: 16 TDís & 3 INTís (195 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 12.2 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 65 Pass Attempts

- When Tied: 8 TDís & 0 INTís (107 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 13.4 Pass Attempts
o 0 INTís

- When Winning: 26 TDís & 5 INTís (357 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 13.7 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 71.4 Pass Attempts


*The first thing I notice about Carrís numbers is that there is not a big difference in his INT rate whether his team is winning or losing. This is in contrast to my last segment where I theorized that, because of his higher rate of turnovers in the 2nd half, Carr seemed to struggle when playing in close games. That doesnít appear to be the case. There doesnít seem to be a big disparity in his numbers regardless of the situation. Carr led a 4th quarter comeback against Rutgers and won the game in OT. Fresno also defeated San Diego State in OT, but thatís because the defense blew a 4th quarter lead. Interesting note, Carr threw 1 more TD while leading than Bortles threw all season. I donít think that means anything for either guy, just thought it was interesting.

*Carr had the 2nd best overall ďTD per pass attemptĒ rate of the 4 QBís, although Bridgewater trailed him closely. Fresno State threw the ball 62% of the time, which was the highest of any of the 4 teams by far. The passing game accounted for 70% of the offensive TDís, which was also the most of all 4 teams. Also, Carr's 659 pass attempts are 230 more than the next guy (Manziel - 429 attempts).

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 02:14 PM
Johnny Manziel

- Overall: 34 TD’s & 13 INT’s on 388 Pass Attempts
o 1 TD every 11.4 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 29.8 Pass Attempts

- When Losing: 11 TD’s & 3 INT’s (126 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 11.5 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 42 Pass Attempts

- When Tied: 8 TD’s & 4 INT’s (81 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 10.1 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 20.3 Pass Attempts

- When Winning: 15 TD’s & 6 INT’s (181 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 12.1 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 30.2 Pass Attempts


*First thing I notice about Manziel is the rates. He has the best TD rate in every category except “when tied” (2nd behind Bridgewater), but he also the worst INT rate in every category. Again, while interesting, I’m not surprised. As I said last segment, his playing style leads to tons of production as well as turnovers. I think you see that with his high number of INT's when playing with a lead. He led a furious 4th quarter comeback against Alabama with three 4th quarter TD passes. However, his 2 INT’s in that game (one returned for a TD) were a big part of why they were in a big hole to begin with. Still though, A&M faced a huge deficit and made it a game on the back of Manziel. He also led a huge 2nd half comeback in a win over Duke. For all of his production, only 3 of this passing TD’s came in games where A&M had more than a two-score lead. This is the fewest of all 4 QB’s by far. Because of their defense, A&M needed every TD this guy could give them.


*Manziel had the best overall “TD per pass attempt” rate of the 4 QB’s. He also had the worst INT rate in all phases. Texas A&M threw the ball 51% of the time. The passing game accounted for 55% of the offensive TD’s, which is in line with those numbers.

Dutchrudder
01-17-2014, 02:40 PM
Good work man, enjoyable read. If you want to save yourself some time, you can probably forego the Derek Carr analysis. I haven't seen anyone on this forum advocating him. Even the trade-down and 2nd round QB guys are giving names like Mettenberger, Murray and McCarron. Nobody wants to touch Carr, and I don't blame them. I think his "1st round talent" label is completely media driven, and has no basis in reality. He's a career backup IMO, and I would much rather get someone else at 2-1 or 3-1 if we were to go that route.

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 03:54 PM
Forgot to add Completion % when tied or trailing

Bortles
- 67.8% overall
- 67.2% when tied or trailing

Bridgewater
- 70.9% overall
- 67.0% when tied or trailing

Carr
- 68.7% overall
- 66.2% when tied or trailing

Manziel
- 69.8% overall
- 70.6% when tied or trailing


*Manziel is the only QB with a better completion percentage when tied or losing as his percentage increases 0.7%. Bortles suffers a small decrease in 0.6%. Bridgewater (3.9%)and Carr (2.5%) both suffer more dramatic decreases.


Best Completion % Overall
1. Bridgewater - 70.9%
2. Manziel - 69.8%
3. Carr - 68.7%
4. Bortles - 67.8%


Best Completion % when Tied or Trailing
1. Manziel - 70.6%
2. Bortles - 67.2%
2. Bridgewater - 67.0%
4. Carr - 66.2 %

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 04:27 PM
The next part in the series will be discussing Red Zone performance. I will start omitting Carr since he is not a realistic option on this board. We will just go forward with the big 3.

Corrosion
01-17-2014, 04:30 PM
Curious who you rank their arm strength ?!

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 04:34 PM
Red Zone Performance

Bortles
- 60.0% completions on 55 pass attempts
- 13 TD’s & 2 INT's
o 1 TD every 4.2 attempts
o 1 INT every 27.5 attempts

Bridgewater
- 56.8% completions on 37 pass attempts
- 13 TD’s & 0 INT's
o 1 TD every 2.8 attempts
o 0 INT’s

Manziel
- 61.7% completions on 47 pass attempts
- 18 TD’s & 5 INT's
o 1 TD every 2.6 attempts
o 1 INT every 9.4 attempts

Findings:
- Bortles' INT rate is not great, but these rates usually drop in the red zone.
- Bridgewater’s completion percentage of 56.8% in the red zone is shockingly lower than his overall percentage of 70.9%. 0 red zone INT’s is impressive though.
- Manziel has the best TD rate yet again. And, yet again, the worst INT rate. That INT rate is bad.

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 04:42 PM
Red Zone Splits

Bortles
- From 20-10
o 63.6% with 3 TD’s & 1 INT
- Inside the 10
o 54.5% with 10 TD’s & 1 INT

Bridgewater
- From 20-10
o 68.2% with 6 TD’s & 0 INT
- Inside the 10
o 42.9% with 7 TD’s & 0 INT

Manziel
- From 20-10
o 69.0% with 9 TD’s & 3 INT’s
- Inside the 10
o 55.0% with 9 TD’s & 2 INT’s

*Completion percentages seem normal from the 20-yard line to the 10-yard line. Bridgewater and Manziel are close to their overall average. Bortles is a little further off, but 63% is still good. Inside the 10-yard line the percentages plummet, especially Bridgewater’s. Note that Bridgewater and Manziel distribute their TD's pretty evenly while almost all of Bortles TD's come from inside the 10.

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 04:45 PM
Curious who you rank their arm strength ?!

None of them have elite arm strength. I group Bridgewater and Bortles pretty closely with Manziel slightly behind. A lot of people seem to think Bortles has the stronger arm but, IMO, that's because he throws a better deep ball. I think Bridgewater puts more zip on the ball. He seems to get knocked for arm strength because of the touch he puts on the ball. He can zip it just fine it seems.

Corrosion
01-17-2014, 04:50 PM
None of them have elite arm strength. I group Bridgewater and Bortles pretty closely with Manziel slightly behind. A lot of people seem to think Bortles has the stronger arm but, IMO, that's because he throws a better deep ball. I think Bridgewater puts more zip on the ball. He seems to get knocked for arm strength because of the touch he puts on the ball. He can zip it just fine it seems.

To me Bortles has the weakest arm of the group .... He really has to load up to throw down field with any distance.

Bridgewater probably does have the strongest arm of the three .... But he drives me nuts throwing so many softballs , too much touch quite often.

Marshall
01-17-2014, 04:51 PM
Red Zone Performance

Bortles
- 60.0% completions on 55 pass attempts
- 13 TDís & 2 INT's
o 1 TD every 4.2 attempts
o 1 INT every 27.5 attempts

Bridgewater
- 55.8% completions on 43 pass attempts
- 16 TDís & 0 INT's
o 1 TD every 2.7 attempts
o 0 INTís

Manziel
- 63.3% completions on 49 pass attempts
- 20 TDís & 5 INT's
o 1 TD every 2.5 attempts
o 1 INT every 9.8 attempts

Findings:
- Bortles' INT rate is not great, but these rates usually drop in the red zone.
- Bridgewaterís completion percentage of 55.8% in the red zone is shockingly lower than his overall percentage of 71.0%. 0 red zone INTís is impressive though.
- Manziel has the best TD rate yet again. And, yet again, the worst INT rate. That INT rate is bad.

I know this is too much to ask, but I'd love to see the Red Zone info broken down between with a lead and not. And 4rth Quarter and not. I'd love to see the correlation of interceptions from the point of necessity because they were tied or trailing late and HAD to score, perhaps forcing the ball into windows which were too tight. Also, discount the passes delivered which were tipped by the receivers before being intercepted.

Dutchrudder
01-17-2014, 05:15 PM
None of them have elite arm strength. I group Bridgewater and Bortles pretty closely with Manziel slightly behind. A lot of people seem to think Bortles has the stronger arm but, IMO, that's because he throws a better deep ball. I think Bridgewater puts more zip on the ball. He seems to get knocked for arm strength because of the touch he puts on the ball. He can zip it just fine it seems.

I thought Teddy in 2012 was throwing darts more often than he did in 2013. It seemed like he and/or his coaches made a conscious decision to have him use more touch on his passes in 2013. Maybe I'm the only one who thinks that, but it sure did seem like his throwing style on intermediate passes changed slightly between years.

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 05:19 PM
To me Bortles has the weakest arm of the group .... He really has to load up to throw down field with any distance.

That is true. I have seen a clip of him really having to load up to throw a 15-yard post. That said, I'm not really enamored with arm strength. Some of the best QB's in the league have "weak" arms. Accuracy and mental ability are way more important, IMO. I've seen enough of all 3 guys to know that each has a strong enough arm for the league. Past that, I don't really care.


Bridgewater probably does have the strongest arm of the three .... But he drives me nuts throwing so many softballs , too much touch quite often.

He does tend to get too pretty on some of his throws and sometimes needs to just fire it in there.

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 06:03 PM
I know this is too much to ask, but I'd love to see the Red Zone info broken down between with a lead and not.

Red Zone Performance with a Lead

Bortles
- 6 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 7 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 9 TD’s & 1 INT


Red Zone Performance when Tied

Bortles
- 3 TD’s & 2 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 5 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 4 TD’s & 3 INT’s


Red Zone Performance when Losing

Bortles
- 4 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 1 TD & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 5 TD’s & 1 INT

Marshall
01-17-2014, 06:08 PM
Red Zone Performance with a Lead

Bortles
- 6 TDís & 0 INTís
Bridgewater
- 9 TDís & 0 INTís
Manziel
- 11 TDís & 1 INT


Red Zone Performance when Tied

Bortles
- 3 TDís & 2 INTís
Bridgewater
- 6 TDís & 0 INTís
Manziel
- 4 TDís & 3 INTís


Red Zone Performance when Losing

Bortles
- 4 TDís & 0 INTís
Bridgewater
- 1 TD & 0 INTís
Manziel
- 5 TDís & 1 INT

Thank You.

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 06:12 PM
And 4rth Quarter and not.

Red Zone Performance in 1st Quarter

Bortles
- 4 TD’s & 2 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 4 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 5 TD’s & 2 INT’s


Red Zone Performance in 2nd Quarter

Bortles
- 5 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 6 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 5 TD’s & 1 INT


Red Zone Performance in 3rd Quarter

Bortles
- 2 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 0 TD & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 2 TD’s & 1 INT


Red Zone Performance in 4th Quarter

Bortles
- 2 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 3 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 6 TD’s & 1 INT

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 06:21 PM
I'd love to see the correlation of interceptions from the point of necessity because they were tied or trailing late and HAD to score, perhaps forcing the ball into windows which were too tight.

Red Zone Performance in the 4th Quarter when Tied or Trailing

Bortles
- 2 TD's & 0 INT's

Bridgewater
- 1 TD & 0 INT's

Manziel
- 3 TD's & 1 INT

Marshall
01-17-2014, 06:22 PM
Red Zone Performance in 1st Quarter

Bortles
- 4 TDís & 2 INTís
Bridgewater
- 6 TDís & 0 INTís
Manziel
- 5 TDís & 2 INTís


Red Zone Performance in 2nd Quarter

Bortles
- 5 TDís & 0 INTís
Bridgewater
- 6 TDís & 0 INTís
Manziel
- 6 TDís & 1 INT


Red Zone Performance in 3rd Quarter

Bortles
- 2 TDís & 0 INTís
Bridgewater
- 1 TD & 0 INTís
Manziel
- 3 TDís & 1 INT


Red Zone Performance in 4th Quarter

Bortles
- 2 TDís & 0 INTís
Bridgewater
- 3 TDís & 0 INTís
Manziel
- 6 TDís & 1 INT

Again, Thank You.

matts290
01-17-2014, 06:22 PM
Are the redzone stats only counting for passing TDs, or rushing as well?

Good stuff too man!

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 06:26 PM
Are the redzone stats only counting for passing TDs, or rushing as well?

Good stuff too man!

Everything in this thread is just passing stats. I think adding rushing statistics would just cloud everything up. For the purposes of this thread, I only care about passing.

That may not seem fair when evaluating Manziel because of how dynamic he is rushing but, to be quite honest, I'm not drafting him to run the ball.

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 06:42 PM
This next part is the difference between their performance at home versus road or neutral site games. Not really a big deal to me, but since the results were easy to come by I tallied them up anyway.

Performance at Home versus Away/Neutral

Bortles

- Home (6 games)
• 12 TD’s & 5 INT’s; 72.0% completions
o 2.0 TD per game
o 0.8 INT per game

- Away/Neutral (7 games)
• 13 TD’s & 4 INT’s; 64.7% completions
o 1.9 TD per game
o 0.6 INT per game

*Bortles' TD:INT rate doesn't change much, but his completion percentage drops 7.3% away from home.


Bridgewater

- Home (6 games)
• 14 TD’s & 2 INT’s; 73.4% completions
o 2.3 TD per game
o 0.3 INT per game

- Away/Neutral (6 games)
• 13 TD’s & 2 INT’s; 68.7% completions
o 2.2 TD per game
o 0.3 INT per game

*Bridgewater's TD:INT rate are almost identical. His completion percentage drops 4.7% away from home.


Manziel

- Home (7 games)
• 26 TD’s & 10 INT’s; 71.7% completions
o 3.7 TD per game
o 1.25 INT per game

- Away/Neutral (5 games)
• 8 TD’s & 3 TD’s; 67.8% completions
o 1.6 TD per game
o 0.6 INT per game

*Not surprisingly, Manziel throws a much higher rate of TD's at home. However, he also throws a higher rate of INT's at home as well. His completion percentage drops 3.9% on the road.

drs23
01-17-2014, 06:46 PM
Great effort WF. Really enjoyed it.

TexansSeminole
01-17-2014, 06:51 PM
Great job.

Just for clarification, you ommited stats from FCS games in all breakdowns, correct?

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 07:14 PM
Great job.

Just for clarification, you ommited stats from FCS games in all breakdowns, correct?

Unfortunately no I did not. I omitted them from the average defensive rank each QB faced. I didn't even think about it to be honest. Perhaps I will go back and adjust them.

Corrosion
01-17-2014, 07:16 PM
Everything in this thread is just passing stats. I think adding rushing statistics would just cloud everything up. For the purposes of this thread, I only care about passing.

That may not seem fair when evaluating Manziel because of how dynamic he is rushing but, to be quite honest, I'm not drafting him to run the ball.

I don't think you can fairly / fully evaluate the impact these QB's have if you don't account for rushing .... Other than Carr , they are all a threat to run & the NFL is evolving with these dual threat QB's.

You have many QB's in the league who are a threat to run and several were in the playoffs ....

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 07:29 PM
*Updated w/o stats against FCS teams, Carr excluded. Note: I still kept Manziel's INT against his FCS opponent. As far as this thread is concerned, he was 0/1 passing with 1 INT against Sam Houston State.

INT rate by half

Stats:
o Bortles
 7 INT’s on 226 1st half attempts (1 INT every 32.3 passes)
 2 INT’s on 156 2nd half attempts (1 INT every 78 passes)
 In 2013 – 9 INT’s on 382 attempts (1 INT every 42.4 passes)

o Bridgewater
 3 INT’s on 209 1st half attempts (1 INT every 69.7 passes)
 1 INT on 186 2nd half attempts (1 INT every 186 passes)
 In 2013 – 4 INT’s on 395 attempts (1 INT every 98.8 passes)

o Manziel
 7 INT’s on 232 1st half attempts (1 INT every 33.1 passes)
 6 INT’s on 156 2nd half attempts (1 INT every 26 passes)
 In 2013 – 13 INT’s on 388 attempts (1 INT every 29.8 passes)

Findings:
- Bortles had the worst INT rate in the 1st half, but the 2nd best INT rate in the 2nd half.
- Bridgewater had the best INT rate in both halves and overall.
- Manziel had the worst INT rate in the 2nd half and overall.

- Bortles and Bridgewater both had much better INT rates in the 2nd half than in the 1st half.
- Manziel had a worse INT rate in the 2nd half than in the 1st half.


*These stats do not take SOS into effect. They are just INT rates on the season as a whole or splits by half. They are pure numbers and do not take competition into effect.


The following is the average defensive rank faced by each QB in FBS games.

Manziel - faced average defense rank of 52.8
Bortles – faced average defense rank of 53.2
Bridgewater – faced average defense rank of 62.5


- Surprisingly, Manziel and Bortles played against pretty much the same defensive rank, which was moderately tougher than Bridgewater's. I give Manziel the edge in toughest competition because, despite Bortles facing an average rank that is almost matching, Manziel plays against better athletes in the SEC.

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 08:40 PM
All posts have been updated to account for FCS teams. UCF did not play an FCS team so Bortles' stats did not need updating. Louisville and Texas A&M each played an FCS team so Bridgewater and Manziel's stats have been adjusted. Fresno State also played an FCS team, but I felt no need to adjust Carr's numbers.

WolverineFan
01-17-2014, 08:57 PM
I don't think you can fairly / fully evaluate the impact these QB's have if you don't account for rushing .... Other than Carr , they are all a threat to run & the NFL is evolving with these dual threat QB's.

You have many QB's in the league who are a threat to run and several were in the playoffs ....

Very true. But I'm not sure how I would incorporate rushing into the stats that I have posted so far. I guess it would be relevant to the red zone numbers.

Texan in Japan
01-17-2014, 10:54 PM
WF,
Really exceptional work, appreciate the effort. Stats are fantastic, but evaluating a prospects intangibles is very important. From your research who would you take of the three?

From my perspective, I love Manziel's moxy and how he plays the game. I worry about his size and tendency to cowboy (pun intended) too much. I really want to see how he works out and interviews.

From what I've read TB seems to be the most ready to transition and run a pro-offense. I haven't seen him play much, but what I have seen looks pretty good.

I didn't think much of Bortles (only saw Baylor) because his receivers racked up some many YAC and made the plays to bring them back.

Frankly, I'm torn between JF and TB.

JB
01-17-2014, 11:21 PM
Very true. But I'm not sure how I would incorporate rushing into the stats that I have posted so far. I guess it would be relevant to the red zone numbers.

And 3rd down conversion perhaps

steelbtexan
01-17-2014, 11:44 PM
Here is my take on Carr...

Carr throws a pretty low amount of INTís per pass attempt (1 INT every 82.4 pass attempts). However, this can be deceiving because (as we saw in the Rotoworld columns earlier this week) 33% of his attempts are screen passes and 26% of his passes are inside of 5 yards. This means that almost 60% of his pass attempts travel less than 5 yards in the air. Keep in mind that he also played the weakest competition of the 4 QBís by far. I think the style of offense, being a QB friendly system requiring easy throws, and the fact that he did not play a tough schedule is the reason for his excellent INT rate.

IMO, the reason for the rise in INTís in the 2nd half is because that style of offense is not always sustainable throughout a game. Sometimes you play a good defense or you need to score quickly and you cannot afford to march down the field with short passes. I think his rise in INTís has to do with him having to push the ball down the field later in close games and, seeing as how the majority of his passes are extremely short, he is either not used to making these throws or just not as comfortable throwing them. I think the stats point this out with his average intermediate accuracy (64%) and below average deep accuracy (44%), again per Rotoworld. I think it also has a lot to do with his accuracy under pressure (50% against pressure compared to 80% against no pressure, per Rotoworld). When he has to stand in the pocket and scan the field, instead of throwing a bubble screen or slant route, the pass rush has a better chance of getting there. He is obviously much more comfortable getting the ball out quickly.

He seems to be a guy who will complete the short passes the offense requires of him, but when the stakes raise and the pressure amps up he is not comfortable at all. Again, his INT rate isnít awful by any means, but I find it noteworthy that it is noticeably worse in the 2nd half than in the 1st half.

Seems alot like his brother to me.

TexansFTW
01-18-2014, 02:15 AM
To me Bortles has the weakest arm of the group .... He really has to load up to throw down field with any distance.

Bridgewater probably does have the strongest arm of the three .... But he drives me nuts throwing so many softballs , too much touch quite often.

His touch didn't seem to hurt his accuracy %

TexansSeminole
01-18-2014, 02:28 AM
His touch didn't seem to hurt his accuracy %

It worked in the AAC, but people are worried that it may not always work so well in the NFL.

Corrosion
01-18-2014, 08:53 AM
His touch didn't seem to hurt his accuracy %

No it hasn't but then again , you factor in the level of competition .... That's an issue that could really have an impact upon his results in the NFL , throwing floaters against the scrubs is one thing , throwing floaters against the best in the world is another.

Combine that with the as yet unconfirmed small hands and this guy could be a turnover machine at the NFL level.



But .... you seem to have made up your mind , some of us haven't and are looking at all the information in front of us before making that decision.

WolverineFan
01-18-2014, 11:38 AM
WF,
Really exceptional work, appreciate the effort. Stats are fantastic, but evaluating a prospects intangibles is very important. From your research who would you take of the three?

From my perspective, I love Manziel's moxy and how he plays the game. I worry about his size and tendency to cowboy (pun intended) too much. I really want to see how he works out and interviews.

From what I've read TB seems to be the most ready to transition and run a pro-offense. I haven't seen him play much, but what I have seen looks pretty good.

I didn't think much of Bortles (only saw Baylor) because his receivers racked up some many YAC and made the plays to bring them back.

Frankly, I'm torn between JF and TB.

To be honest I doubt the stats will change my opinion and they aren't meant to change anyone else's. I did the research out of pure curiosity. I've always maintained that Bridgewater is my favorite of the 3 because of his accuracy and his mental command on the field. The other guys do a lot of things better than Bridgewater but, in my top 2 areas for a QB, Bridgewater is clearly the leader. That's why I like him the most.

WolverineFan
01-18-2014, 11:51 AM
Rushing TD's in Red Zone

Bortles
- 6 TD's Overall
o 2 TD's when Losing
o 1 TD when Tied
o 3 TD's when Winning

Bridgewater
- 1 TD Overall
o 0 TD's when Losing
o 0 TD's when Tied
o 1 TD when Winning

Manziel
- 8 TD's Overall
o 3 TD's when Losing
o 0 TD's when Tied
o 5 TD's when Winning


Rushing TD's by Quarter

Bortles
- 6 TD's Overall
o 2 TD's in 1st Quarter
o 1 TD's in 2nd Quarter
o 2 TD's in 3rd Quarter
o 1 TD in 4th Quarter

Bridgewater
- 1 TD Overall
o 1 TD in 4th Quarter

Manziel
- 9 TDís Overall
o 1 TD in 1st Quarter
o 2 TDís in 2nd Quarter
o 3 TDís in 3rd Quarter
o 3 TDís in 4th Quarter

TexansFTW
01-18-2014, 11:57 AM
No it hasn't but then again , you factor in the level of competition .... That's an issue that could really have an impact upon his results in the NFL , throwing floaters against the scrubs is one thing , throwing floaters against the best in the world is another.

Combine that with the as yet unconfirmed small hands and this guy could be a turnover machine at the NFL level.



But .... you seem to have made up your mind , some of us haven't and are looking at all the information in front of us before making that decision.

I'm just trying to say the touch didn't really hurt him, I don't think that's overstepping myself. When I look for a common opponent between TB, JFF, Aaron Murray, Zach Met, and even 1st round pick EJ Manuel I can find the 2012 Florida defense which is comprised of quite a bit of NFL Talent.

4 defensive players in rounds 1-4 of 2013 NFL draft with about 6 more guys expected to go in rounds 2-6 in this upcoming draft as of today. You can argue this is a solid defense that all of these teams played against.

TB and his "touch" passes fared pretty well against that stout D whereas I can't say the same for any other QB. JFF you can say had a decent game and didn't lose the game for A&M like the other QBs mentioned, but at the end of the day he didn't win the game either. Frankly other than TB and JFF, they all sucked. However, TB and his touch passes dominated and won that game on the biggest stage of all those games (up 33-10 at one point in the Sugar Bowl).

You can say I've already made up my mind and that's fine. So what if I picked my horse and back it? When people take shots at the horse I chose, if they are valid, I let em stand (size, combine will tell). If they aren't valid I shoot them down. I don't want new readers coming to this thread taking misguided hate as truth and spreading it. I will shoot down, what I view as invalid points every time.

Uncle Rico
01-18-2014, 01:22 PM
What are the completion percentages and ratio's against the blitz among the 3? To me what a QB does under pressure is much more important than what he does during an unpressured play.

Dutchrudder
01-18-2014, 02:07 PM
What are the completion percentages and ratio's against the blitz among the 3? To me what a QB does under pressure is much more important than what he does during an unpressured play.

Rotoworld had an article on that:

http://i.imgur.com/db0HWPQ.jpg

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/45952/349/2014s-quarterback-conundrum

WolverineFan
01-18-2014, 02:09 PM
The last segment of our series will be the ever so popular strength of competition. I saved this one for last because it has seemingly garnered the most attention over the last few weeks.

In this segment, I have totaled up each player's performance against good competition. Games against FCS and low tier mid-majors are thrown out the window. This means that, despite only playing 2 years, Manziel has more data than the other QB's. The only games that I counted were games against BCS power conference teams and games against mid-majors with 10+ wins.

I have uploaded the spreadsheet to Google Docs. You don't need to sign-in, but the document is set to privacy. It is only view-able through this link.

2014 Draft QB Comparison - Spreadsheet (Updated) (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B5cfwzTw_eFmclJwbWIyaVBXQWs/edit?usp=sharing)

Corrosion
01-18-2014, 02:11 PM
To be honest I doubt the stats will change my opinion and they aren't meant to change anyone else's. I did the research out of pure curiosity. I've always maintained that Bridgewater is my favorite of the 3 because of his accuracy and his mental command on the field. The other guys do a lot of things better than Bridgewater but, in my top 2 areas for a QB, Bridgewater is clearly the leader. That's why I like him the most.

You've done a pretty damn good job of compiling all these stats .... For someone who was on the fence , the numbers situational numbers are helpful. There's a lot to like about each of the top three .... we can just forget about HWWNBM2.0 , he doesn't belong.

I do think it has helped me narrow it down from three to two .... Bridgewater & Manziel , with no clear favorite.


Rep for a job well done.

Corrosion
01-18-2014, 02:16 PM
I have uploaded the spreadsheet to Google Docs. You don't need to sign-in, but the document is set to privacy. It is only view-able through this link.

2014 Draft QB Comparison - Spreadsheet (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B5cfwzTw_eFmVG5oS1F0djZfUmM/edit?usp=sharing)

There are some missing stats for Manziel - the completion %'s for each game.

WolverineFan
01-18-2014, 02:19 PM
There are some missing stats for Manziel - the completion %'s for each game.

Damn...I knew I jumped the gun. Thanks, will try and update.

Uncle Rico
01-18-2014, 02:33 PM
77% against the blitz for Teddy Ballgame is flat out ridiculous. Jaw dropping to say the least.

Any metrics on how the prospects play when injured? Heart and toughness is also a huge intangible in QB play.

I remember TB coming in as the emergency QB against Rutgers with a broken wrist and jacked up ankle and won a must win game with skill and heart. To me it says alot how he would play as a veteran of 10 years when the athleticism wears off.

Corrosion
01-18-2014, 02:44 PM
Damn...I knew I jumped the gun. Thanks, will try and update.

Couple other things missing ... for three of the four , </>10win record results for Bridgewater , Bortles & Carr while you show those results for Manziel.


Still , this thread is full of great info.

Corrosion
01-18-2014, 02:46 PM
77% against the blitz for Teddy Ballgame is flat out ridiculous. Jaw dropping to say the least.



I'd like to see a breakdown of this Vs. BCS power conference teams and mid-majors with 10+ wins .... lets remove the patsy schedule and compare apples to apples.

WolverineFan
01-18-2014, 03:05 PM
Couple other things missing ... for three of the four , </>10win record results for Bridgewater , Bortles & Carr while you show those results for Manziel.


Still , this thread is full of great info.

That split was done specifically for Manziel. While he played many more games against top competition, I thought it was interesting just how much better his numbers were against the good teams than against the elite ones.

With that said, the next (and final) spreadsheet will address that issue.

WolverineFan
01-18-2014, 03:10 PM
For the final segment of this series, I have linked another spreadsheet containing QB data. Instead of stats against good competition, this spreadsheet will only contain data on games against the best competition.

*Note that the best doesn't literally mean "the best". It's the best competition that each player faced. I wanted to take the 8-5 NC State's and 7-5 Mississippi State's out of the equation and just focus on the top teams each guy faced. Notice that, now more than ever, Manziel has a lot more exposure to this competition despite only playing 2 years.

2014 QB Comparison Spreadsheet - Elite Competition (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B5cfwzTw_eFmb3BoNnBmTHgxeGs/edit?usp=sharing)

Uncle Rico
01-18-2014, 03:48 PM
Going striclty off the last spreadsheet Carr is horrible against the better teams. Bortles not that much better.

TB is a pretty consistent guy even against the top teams.

Manziels stats jump off the page at me.

How about game winning drives as a metric or "clutch factor" maybe using the last 4 minutes in a game to tabulate the stats.

Appreciate the legwork for compiling all the data.

WolverineFan
01-18-2014, 04:06 PM
Going striclty off the last spreadsheet Carr is horrible against the better teams. Bortles not that much better.

TB is a pretty consistent guy even against the top teams.

Manziels stats jump off the page at me.

How about game winning drives as a metric or "clutch factor" maybe using the last 4 minutes in a game to tabulate the stats.

Appreciate the legwork for compiling all the data.

What I noticed while compiling the last spreadsheet....

Carr doesn't play great against top teams. Lower completion %, low yards per pass attempt, and a worse TD per pass attempt rate than against weaker competition.

Bortles numbers would be pretty good if he cut down on turnovers. I think that fits with what we see when he plays. Makes a lot of plays and produces, but tries to do too much and turns the ball over too often.

Bridgewater's numbers are pretty good. High completion % and high yards per attempt. His TD rate is slightly lower against better teams and his INT rate is higher. However, his turnover rate was the best across the board in all of the stats I compiled for this thread. What impresses me about his game is the efficiency.

Manziel naturally has the best TD rate. That was pretty much the case across the board in all of the stats. His INT rate isn't great, but it isn't worse against good competition than bad competition. I think that's just his playing style. He's a guy that will make a ton of plays, but the downside is that he will turn the ball over. His completion % and yards per attempt were a lot lower against good teams, but the numbers are still good.

Texian
01-18-2014, 11:04 PM
I'm not picking here, in fact you are doing Yeoman's work. Just pointing out a consideration when analyzing all the stats, Bridgewater is a 3 year starter and Bortles and Manziel are 2 year starters.

IDEXAN
01-19-2014, 10:52 AM
Some info for every ones consideration: today is the final 4 for the NFL playoffs and only one of todays starting QBs was selected within the top 35 players taken in the year each was drafted.

steelbtexan
01-19-2014, 10:56 AM
Let me give y'all a couple of numbers,

Clowney runs a 4.46 at 274 Lbs and he's 1-1. Give me Mallett or Mettenberger/Garappolo at 2-1 and watch all of the fun JJ and Clowney have making carniage of the Colts and Luck.

Allstar
01-19-2014, 10:59 AM
Let me give y'all a couple of numbers,

Clowney runs a 4.46 at 274 Lbs and he's 1-1. Give me Mallett or Mettenberger/Garappolo at 2-1 and watch all of the fun JJ and Clowney have making carniage of the Colts and Luck.

That would be insane.

Uncle Rico
01-19-2014, 11:02 AM
Let me give y'all a couple of numbers,

Clowney runs a 4.46 at 274 Lbs and he's 1-1. Give me Mallett or Mettenberger/Garappolo at 2-1 and watch all of the fun JJ and Clowney have making carniage of the Colts and Luck.

True. Until you have to let 1 walk due to not being able to afford 2 ridiculous contracts on the Dline. Would be interesting for a couple of years if Clowney is a hungry player vs the selfish persona being painted.

IDEXAN
01-19-2014, 11:09 AM
South team
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr, Fresno State
David Fales, San Jose State
Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
****
That's the QBs for the South squad in this weeks upcoming SB game. So I hear
this Garoppolo kid had a big game at the East-West Shrine game, looking forward to seeing him and also want to see if Carr can redeem himself after that lousy bowl game performance he had.

infantrycak
01-19-2014, 11:23 AM
Let me give y'all a couple of numbers,

Clowney runs a 4.46 at 274 Lbs and he's 1-1.

And if he runs a 4.65?

beerlover
01-19-2014, 12:43 PM
And if he runs a 4.65?

pushing a sled :bunpan:

Honoring Earl 34
01-19-2014, 12:45 PM
pushing a sled :bunpan:

I predict it's a 4.55 with a 39 inch vertical and 22 reps on the bench .

beerlover
01-19-2014, 01:27 PM
I predict it's a 4.55 with a 39 inch vertical and 22 reps on the bench .

they're saying he is more quick twitch than Mario Williams. All Mario did was run 4.66, 40.5 vertical & lift 225 35 times @ 6070 295.

here is the thing. will he be gearing his workouts to become the 1st overall pick of Texans by dropping weight emphasizing his athletic ability to bend & play OLB position. Or does he want to play 4-3 end & add more size & power? it will be interesting process to follow for sure, will have to wait until combine to have a better idea. If he wants to be a Texan & play OLB I would like to see him drop to around 262-267 run a 4.50 or better & do at least 40" vertical. his 10 sec split should be insane, like 1.51-4 seconds (Mario ran 1.61). FYI, would be cool if they added event (sled pushing) for DL/OL to measure endurance, strength & speed. :firehair:

Corrosion
01-19-2014, 02:43 PM
want to see if Carr can redeem himself after that lousy bowl game performance he had.

I think Carr's statistics Vs good teams and pressure are enough to lower his stock , at least for me. Those numbers don't lie.

I want to narrow it down to just Manziel and Bridgewater .... but hesitate to discount Bortles on a lack of arm strength. When he goes downfield , he really seems to have to load up and still comes up short at times.


The strength of competition for Bridgewater really concerns me .... He gets away with those floaters against lower competition but I cant see that holding true in the NFL where everyone is a great athlete.


I just cant make up my mind but right now , I'd have to rank them Manziel , Bridgewater , Bortles .... and that's subject to change when as more information becomes available.

steelbtexan
01-19-2014, 02:51 PM
True. Until you have to let 1 walk due to not being able to afford 2 ridiculous contracts on the Dline. Would be interesting for a couple of years if Clowney is a hungry player vs the selfish persona being painted.

You have the $$$$ to pay 5 superstar level players 25 above avg. 10 avg players (LeGarrette Blount/Jacob Tamme types. The rest have to be draft picks and vet min type guys.

With a much better scouting dept this can be done. Look at the Broncos/Pats type teams. there roster seems to be constructed this way.

LikeMike
01-19-2014, 07:11 PM
Some info for every ones consideration: today is the final 4 for the NFL playoffs and only one of todays starting QBs was selected within the top 35 players taken in the year each was drafted.

Well, all of the QBs would be considered a steal. So if you do a redraft all of them will go top 5, probably even top 3 - 2 of them top 1 obviously.

Late round success stories don't prove, that you don't have to take the top QB on your board. It just shows that most scouts miss players. But you still get a way better chance at success if you take the players most scouts like best.

At the draft the Texans need to look at their big board. If a QB is in the top 3, they should probably take him because a QB means so much more to a team than any other position. If not, they should look at trades and Clowney

matts290
01-19-2014, 07:42 PM
Some info for every ones consideration: today is the final 4 for the NFL playoffs and only one of todays starting QBs was selected within the top 35 players taken in the year each was drafted.

Also noteworthy is that 2 of the 4 final QBs are mobile/dual threats.

Corrosion
01-19-2014, 08:07 PM
You have the $$$$ to pay 5 superstar level players 25 above avg. 10 avg players (LeGarrette Blount/Jacob Tamme types. The rest have to be draft picks and vet min type guys.

With a much better scouting dept this can be done. Look at the Broncos/Pats type teams. there roster seems to be constructed this way.


Should they draft a QB they will have him under a reasonable contract for 4-5 years .... that would be advantageous allowing them to spend elsewhere until the time comes to pay the QB his market value.

Right now they have Schaub , Brown , Cushing , AJ , JJo and Foster making big $$$ with Watt & KJax due hefty raises. Schaub should be a goner & its entirely possible JJo is too.

steelbtexan
01-20-2014, 12:24 AM
Should they draft a QB they will have him under a reasonable contract for 4-5 years .... that would be advantageous allowing them to spend elsewhere until the time comes to pay the QB his market value.

Right now they have Schaub , Brown , Cushing , AJ , JJo and Foster making big $$$ with Watt & KJax due hefty raises. Schaub should be a goner & its entirely possible JJo is too.

I don't know the cap numbers but I would cut Schaub JoJo and Foster. Trade for Mallett and draft Garappoko (Doubling down on my bet) Fill in the rest in the draft and low cost FA's on short term contracts and look forward to a brighter future spending the $$$$ saved on extending Watt. (Drafting Clowney 1-1)

Do you think Rick will have this kind of vision. Or is this even going to be within Rick's call.

Corrosion
01-20-2014, 02:26 PM
I don't know the cap numbers but I would cut Schaub JoJo and Foster. Trade for Mallett and draft Garappoko (Doubling down on my bet) Fill in the rest in the draft and low cost FA's on short term contracts and look forward to a brighter future spending the $$$$ saved on extending Watt. (Drafting Clowney 1-1)

Do you think Rick will have this kind of vision. Or is this even going to be within Rick's call.

Cutting Schaub is a no brainer , saves significant cap space in doing so. Enough that should they draft a QB 1:1 his contract is covered by that savings and then some.

I've been over the numbers for cutting JJo several weeks back and tho I cant recall the exact numbers , it isn't going to save enough $ to justify the cut. It'll cost you more to replace him with a marginal talent / contract than you are going to save by cutting him , unless you replace him with a draft pick.
Tho it does free up $$ in future seasons. But .... we have McNair telling us this is a quick fix , just need a couple players and we're contenders again. (I Don't Buy It!) I get the idea that JJo will stick around thru this season. Cutting him after this year costs next to nothing. Cutting him now costs big $ and creates another gaping hole on the roster ...

Foster ... If healthy is one of the top 3 backs in the league. Just not sure if he'll ever be healthy again. I haven't been over the numbers to see what the consequences are of cutting him .... but I'd wager there is a hefty amount of dead money. Add to that the fact that Tate is a goner and we have nothing else at the position ... Cant see him being cut (Pending his health).


As for Mallett , I haven't seen enough of him to form an opinion. He does have a hell of an arm .... but that's all I can glean from his play with the Patriots.

Jimmy Garoppolo is likely a 2nd rounder , maybe even goes in the first if he has a strong combine.
Rumor was a 2nd rounder for Mallett .... don't see getting both as they require the same asset to acquire.

Clowney .... I wouldn't touch .... Sure he's a dynamic talent but the injury and motivation issues along with the poor production last season scare me away (3 sacks :shocked) , especially @ 1:1.

TexansFTW
01-20-2014, 03:07 PM
What is going on here? We have like 12 threads to spout rhetoric and viewpoints about these issues. Why is it trailing over to here?

We really need to clean this up.

This is a big 3 (rookie QB) statistical comparison thread. Not ANOTHER venue for speaking about Clowney, salary cap, and lesser QBs some are convinced are the real deal and whatever else this is about to deviate into.

Great job Wolverine on the hard work BTW.

I've been over the numbers for cutting JJo several weeks back and tho I cant recall the exact numbers , it isn't going to save enough $ to justify the cut. It'll cost you more to replace him with a marginal talent / contract than you are going to save by cutting him , unless you replace him with a draft pick.

I agree with this though, lol. A HIGH draft pick, don't forget that either.

Marshall
01-21-2014, 07:04 AM
You've done a pretty damn good job of compiling all these stats .... For someone who was on the fence , the numbers situational numbers are helpful. There's a lot to like about each of the top three .... we can just forget about HWWNBM2.0 , he doesn't belong.

I do think it has helped me narrow it down from three to two .... Bridgewater & Manziel , with no clear favorite.


Rep for a job well done.

I'm sold on TB as the best of the bunch, but I'm not sold on the group.

mussop
01-22-2014, 12:51 AM
Is there a showing here of completion percentage when blitzed?

kiwitexansfan
01-22-2014, 12:55 AM
Is there a showing here of completion percentage when blitzed?

It's somewhere on the forum, try the who is your QB in 2014 thread.

infantrycak
01-22-2014, 12:59 AM
Is there a showing here of completion percentage when blitzed?

Look at post #55 in this thread.

mussop
01-22-2014, 12:59 AM
It's somewhere on the forum, try the who is your QB in 2014 thread.

Thank you.

mussop
01-22-2014, 01:00 AM
Look at post #55 in this thread.

Thank you too!!!

Say Watt
01-22-2014, 03:54 PM
This is really good stuff, Wolverine. Bravo!

Only thing I'd like to add is that you simply can't ignore Manziel's porous defense when evaluating his interceptions. No lead was ever safe for him and thus the pressure was always on for him to score basically every single time he had the ball. He simply couldn't count on his defense to stop anyone. To ignore that in his evaluation, especially given the talent he was playing against, would be foolhardy.

Once again though, awesome read! I really enjoyed it. Yes, I lean towards us drafting Manziel and think he is a once in a generation talent with not only his passing and running abilities but more importantly the leadership he brings. That said though, everything I have read on Bridgewater has been impressive. His ability against the blitz and the pro-style offense he has had to run are all big points in his favor. I truly wouldn't be disappointed if we drafted either guy.