View Full Version : Doppelalysis Part 1

12-08-2013, 01:08 AM
I will apologize in advance. When I embarked on this topic, I really thought it would be a short, pithy commentary. I had no idea it would grow as much as it did. Initially I was simply going to offer a few thoughts on Teddy Bridgewater seeing that he is a potential first round selection for the Texans. However, this small little 50-60 word post suddenly turned into a nearly 2000 word essay. I realized that this post was far too big and needed to be broken up into two separate ones. I also felt there were two distinct, yet related topics which naturally had a break point which could allow for separate areas of discussion. My apologies if you feel it would have been netter as one long super post. So, get comfy, here we go!

When evaluating quarterbacks its important to look at on the field production. While it is interesting to see them in shorts and t-shirts, on the field production is the most important data point for me. When I look at a QB I look at the following areas: accuracy, vision, arm strength, pocket presence, mechanics, and size.

In this post, I plan to evaluate Mr. Teddy Bridgewater on these metrics in order to determine if he is a worthy #1 overall selection, or if the team should go in another direction/trade down.

In some ways this is almost the most important of the factors. It’s one of the hardest to be taught. What do Peyton, Brees, Brady, and Rogers all have in common: accuracy. They know exactly where the ball is going to go and make sure it gets there. Bridgewater has been very accurate over the course of the season. A 70.2% passer completion, 28 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions is impressive. While some may argue that he has not faced any tough defenses, I would say, let’s see how he does in his bowl game. Until then, we can see his game against the very tough and loaded University of Florida 2012 team. He had a good game against a very tough Florida D. Bridgewater can make any throw and has shown that ability this year.

Bridgewater can read defenses and has shown that ability by being trusted to make adjustments and changes at the LOS. Unlike many college players, Bridgewater is given a play, but is trusted to completely change it if he sees something on the field. Most college and many NFL QBs are not given that amount of responsibility. This has given him a lot of practice in learning to read and anticipate where defensive players and assignments will be and go. He will not have to learn to read a defense when he gets to the NFL, he will simply have to refine that ability. This area puts him heads and shoulders above all other prospects in the NFL draft.

Arm strength
If there is a weakness in his game this may be it. Now, he is not some weak, noodlearmed guy, but he is certainly not a Colin Kapernick or Jamacus “I can throw 70 yards from my knees” Russell. Bridgewater can put zip on the ball but did show some difficulty last year on deep routes. A few too many of the longer passes either were overthrown or floated. This year he has been able to improve that area. As he gets stronger and into an NFL weight room and nutritional plan, his longer throws will become more accurate. That said, this is his weakest area.

Pocket Presence
Bridgwater is an athletic and not a running Quarterback. This is an important distinction to make. In the current NFL it is important to have a mobile, athletic QB, not a running QB. Running QBs at some point suffer significant injuries and are never able to keep up those big running stats over the course of a career. With Defenses filled with bigger, stronger, athletic players, its important for a QB to be able to get away and extend a play rather than try to accumulate a significant amount of yardage on the ground. Bridgewater is able to move, extend, and get away. He also has the ability to scramble for a first down every so often.

Bridgewater has smooth, fluid, repeatable, and has a quick release. He has a near picture perfect release, looks balanced in his motion, and confidently steps through each pass. Based on his shoulder angle and motion he does not look like he puts excess stress or wear and tear on his shoulder. A quick release without a long looping herky jerky motion is noted.

To be honest, I don’t put a lot of stock into size. Whether you are 6’0 like Drew Brees and Russell Wilson or 6’5 like Carson Palmer, if you can play, height is not that important. But, since people care, Teddy Bridgewater is…well we are not exactly sure. Some publications claim he is 6’3 196lbs others say he is around 6’4 218lbs. I suspect we will know at the combine. Whatever his weight is, he will likely be at least 6’2” and somewhere around 200lbs.

Bridgewater is not perfect. No prospect is. I happen to think Joe Montana was the greatest QB of all time…and he went at the end of the third round. We can certainly look at his long downfield inaccuracy or we can look at his very good vision, accuracy, scrambling , and mechanics. In my mind, it comes down to the big picture. To me it comes down to two key questions:

1. Is he an Elite QB prospect: Yes.
2. Does he have the potential to be an NFL Franchise QB: yes.

From what I can see, based on his tape, and abilities, I think he is an elite prospect and has the potential to be an NFL franchise Quarterback. Now, the big question: would I draft him?

That is an interesting question. In theory if there is a franchise Quarterback or a player who is deemed to be a franchise quarterback perhaps more value can actually be had by trading the pick for more selections in the NFL draft. I will actually look into that very question and delve into that in Part 2.

Please click here for Part 2 http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=2265333#post2265333

12-08-2013, 01:10 AM
Wanted to bump this ahead of Part 2. Should Read 1 before 2 :)

12-08-2013, 10:26 AM
Followed the plan & it works for me as well. I updated my Thanksgiving mock while watching tape of Cincinnati, Louisville game & he was doing something exceptional, from a skill-set check list, on nearly every play, it was both surprising & exciting to think after such a suckie season for Texans there could be a silver lining (don't tell that to Kubes) obviously not planned or expected ahead of time (like the Colts did to position themselves for Luck). :pop:

12-10-2013, 10:44 AM
I think it would have been interesting to include whom the QB was for the team trading away the franchise QB?