PDA

View Full Version : 2014 Salary Cap Estimates


Exascor
12-07-2013, 05:54 PM
With the 2013 season effectively over for many teams I thought it would be a good time to take a look ahead at salary cap space in 2014. I think at this point we have a pretty good idea about cap carryover and can base the salary cap in 2014 on an estimated $125 million.

While these estimates should provide a pretty good guide there are a few things to take into account. First of all remember that these are OTC’s salary estimates (which are usually pretty accurate) and not a confirmed report. Second, the 2014 salary commitments will rise due to the earning of contract escalators for performance. For teams with 2010 draft picks on the roster these can reduce cap space by millions. Third, while we estimate carryover figures we do not have any adjustments yet. Adjustments can be positive (such as accounting for bonus money forfeited due to drug suspensions) or negative (NLTBEs actually earned). These adjustments can apply on both a teamwide and an individual basis. In many cases these are huge amounts that essentially lead to double counting. Imagine if a player has a NLTBE bonus in 2013 and 2014 for $2 million and he earns that bonus in 2013. What happens is that the teams cap space will be reduced in 2014 by $2 million to account for the earning of the NLTBE and the individuals cap charge will increase in 2014 by another $2 million to reflect the change in status from NLTBE to LTBE. Just like that a team has lost $4 million in projected cap space.

In the cap table you will notice two estimates. The first estimate is the cap space estimated by the current size of the roster. The second estimate is a teams’ “effective cap space” which is the amount of cap room that a team will have once its roster reaches 51 players. Usually teams sign players to futures contracts in January and February to flesh out their roster. The minimum salary for these players will be $420,000. Some receive small bonuses but for the most part $420,000 is a good cap charge estimate.

Texans
Players: 46
Estimated Carryover: $1,531,128
Estimated Spending: $117,815,223
Estimated Cap Space: $8,715,905
Estimated Effective Cap Space: $6,615,905

Link (http://overthecap.com/looking-ahead-2014-salary-cap-estimates/)


I'd add that another thing to look at is the rookie salary pool for the Texans should be around $8 million (my estimate). We aren't nearly as bad off as the teams in cap hell (Saints, Steelers and Cowboys). We are in a cluster of teams that won't be players in the FA market and may have to make cuts, extend or restructure contracts to stay under the cap.

If you want to get sick, look at the Colts, Packers, Bengals & Eagles (all in line for playoffs) cap room in 2014.

Texian
12-07-2013, 06:08 PM
Link (http://overthecap.com/looking-ahead-2014-salary-cap-estimates/)


I'd add that another thing to look at is the rookie salary pool for the Texans should be around $8 million (my estimate). We aren't nearly as bad off as the teams in cap hell (Saints, Steelers and Cowboys). We are in a cluster of teams that won't be players in the FA market and may have to make cuts, extend or restructure contracts to stay under the cap.

If you want to get sick, look at the Colts, Packers, Bengals & Eagles (all in line for playoffs) cap room in 2014.

There is no rookie salary cap pool. There is the top 51 salaries to start the new year and the 53 man roster plus practice squad to start he season. Rookies who make the 53 man roster are included in 53 salaries.

Texans are approx $8 mil under the cap. Every team needs approx $5 mil for IR, LTBE and Practice Squad. Of the 46 active contracts 8 of those could be 2013 practice squad. Reality is Texans will have to replace rougly 12-15 new contracts and have approx. $3 mil to do it.

Exascor
12-07-2013, 06:20 PM
There is no rookie salary cap pool. There is the top 51 salaries to start the new year and the 53 man roster plus practice squad to start he season. Rookies who make the 53 man roster are included in 53 salaries.The rookie salary pool is an estimate of how much the contracts for all the rookies will cost the team in cap space. You would hope that all the draft picks make the team. You have to at least anticipate the cap space their contracts will take up. In our case 7-8 players would take up 8 million or so.

Link (http://overthecap.com/explaining-the-nfl-rookie-pool-and-its-impact-on-the-salary-cap/)

Wolf
12-07-2013, 06:22 PM
Well if Schaub is still here or not...not sure how that effects things:chickendance:

welsh texan
12-07-2013, 06:26 PM
There is no rookie salary cap pool. There is the top 51 salaries to start the new year and the 53 man roster plus practice squad to start he season. Rookies who make the 53 man roster are included in 53 salaries.

Texans are approx $8 mil under the cap. Every team needs approx $5 mil for IR, LTBE and Practice Squad. Of the 46 active contracts 8 of those could be 2013 practice squad. Reality is Texans will have to replace rougly 12-15 new contracts and have approx. $3 mil to do it.

Schaub, Antonio, wade smith... All easy saves, it's just replacing them that will prove difficult, Antonio especially.

Of course JoJo hasn't been earning his $ recently for whatever reason, hard to see a new coaching staff wanting to make that cut though as the talent is there just needs pointing back in the right direction I'm guessing.

I think the texans have some options in freeing up cap room, only thing is they've restructured so much the last few seasons to make room for Schaub that I worry about cap hits when cutting players.

steelbtexan
12-07-2013, 06:31 PM
There is no rookie salary cap pool. There is the top 51 salaries to start the new year and the 53 man roster plus practice squad to start he season. Rookies who make the 53 man roster are included in 53 salaries.

Texans are approx $8 mil under the cap. Every team needs approx $5 mil for IR, LTBE and Practice Squad. Of the 46 active contracts 8 of those could be 2013 practice squad. Reality is Texans will have to replace rougly 12-15 new contracts and have approx. $3 mil to do it.

Not a pretty picture.

The Pencil Neck
12-07-2013, 06:33 PM
Not a pretty picture.

But a much rosier picture than the:

Cowboys
Saints
Steelers
Lions
Chargers
Rams
Seahawks
Chiefs


The Cowboys, Saints, and Steelers appear to be in true Cap Hell.

steelbtexan
12-07-2013, 06:38 PM
But a much rosier picture than the:

Cowboys
Saints
Steelers
Lions
Chargers
Rams
Seahawks
Chiefs


The Cowboys, Saints, and Steelers appear to be in true Cap Hell.

Dont really care about other teams cap situations.

Would you let Schaub/JoJo walk and sign Cutler if he becomes a FA. Then draft a CB high in the draft?

Texian
12-07-2013, 06:47 PM
The rookie salary pool is an estimate of how much the contracts for all the rookies will cost the team in cap space. You would hope that all the draft picks make the team. You have to at least anticipate the cap space their contracts will take up. In our case 7-8 players would take up 8 million or so.

Link (http://overthecap.com/explaining-the-nfl-rookie-pool-and-its-impact-on-the-salary-cap/)

"It is essentially money that your team needs to place aside for your rookies. It is not added to your salary cap at all."

Here is how it works, in March when new league starts, all 32 teams top 51 contracts must be under the salary cap. Then May comes, the draft and signing of UDFA. The Rookie Pool is money teams can use to sign their draft picks and UDFA, over and above top 51 salaries in the salary cap (most rookie salaries will be under the top 51 salaries). THIS MONEY IS NOT ADDED TO THE SALARY CAP. The day before the actual season starts, teams complete 53 man roster, (this includes any and all rookies who made the 53 man roster) must be under the salary cap. When deadline arrives for the 53 man rosters to be under the salary cap the Rookie Pool ceases to exist.

The Pencil Neck
12-07-2013, 06:52 PM
Dont really care about other teams cap situations.

Would you let Schaub/JoJo walk and sign Cutler if he becomes a FA. Then draft a CB high in the draft?

At this point, Schaub's gone. We need that space but I'm not a big Cutler fan. I don't see how we don't address the QB situation with this draft. One way or another. I don't think we can wait for the 2015 draft. Whether our new coaching staff is going to be successful or not is going to hinge on them making the correct assessment of this year's batch of QBs.

I'm not sure about JJo. It's really going to depend on the coach we hire and the style of CB they're looking for and whether they think they can work with JJo and KJ. I wouldn't be surprised if JJo gets restructured and we go with a secondary of KJ, JJo, Manning, and Swearinger next year and concentrate the draft on fixing the front 7 of our defense and tailoring our OL to whatever our new offensive philosophy is going to be.

But that's just me and it's still really early in the process.

Texian
12-07-2013, 06:54 PM
Schaub, Antonio, wade smith... All easy saves, it's just replacing them that will prove difficult, Antonio especially.

Of course JoJo hasn't been earning his $ recently for whatever reason, hard to see a new coaching staff wanting to make that cut though as the talent is there just needs pointing back in the right direction I'm guessing.

I think the texans have some options in freeing up cap room, only thing is they've restructured so much the last few seasons to make room for Schaub that I worry about cap hits when cutting players.

Not exactly how it works. Antonio and Wade are free agents so there is no salary cap relief. Their salaries have already been removed from the books before the start the new 2014 league year. Fans thought their was going to be great savings when Mario's $18 mil was no longer. In reality Mario's $18 mil came off the books at the end of 2011 and the Texans actually started the 2012 new league year only $3 million under the salary cap.

Exascor
12-07-2013, 06:54 PM
"It is essentially money that your team needs to place aside for your rookies. It is not added to your salary cap at all."

Here is how it works, in March when new league starts, all 32 teams top 51 contracts must be under the salary cap. Then May comes, the draft and signing of UDFA. The Rookie Pool is money teams can use to sign their draft picks and UDFA, over and above top 51 salaries in the salary cap (most rookie salaries will be under the top 51 salaries). THIS MONEY IS NOT ADDED TO THE SALARY CAP. The day before the actual season starts, teams complete 53 man roster, (this includes any and all rookies who made the 53 man roster) must be under the salary cap. When deadline arrives for the 53 man rosters to be under the salary cap the Rookie Pool ceases to exist.
Dude - you are barking up the wrong tree. You are wrong because you misunderstood me. I never said that we had an extra 8 million. We have to account for it so that reduces the amount of cap that can be used.

Texian
12-07-2013, 06:59 PM
Not a pretty picture.

No it's not, but the Texans Standard Operating Procedures is to restructure $5-$10 million.

Texian
12-07-2013, 07:03 PM
Dude - you are barking up the wrong tree. You are wrong because you misunderstood me. I never said that we had an extra 8 million. We have to account for it so that reduces the amount of cap that can be used.

I don't think so, I think it is pretty much as I explained it. There is no reduction of in the amount of salary cap to be used.

welsh texan
12-07-2013, 07:36 PM
Not exactly how it works. Antonio and Wade are free agents so there is no salary cap relief. Their salaries have already been removed from the books before the start the new 2014 league year. Fans thought their was going to be great savings when Mario's $18 mil was no longer. In reality Mario's $18 mil came off the books at the end of 2011 and the Texans actually started the 2012 new league year only $3 million under the salary cap.

Oh right that is a much less Rosie picture in that case :(

Schaub only saves us $4mm next year I think? (Thought there was a way we can get 10.5 this year but lose out in 2015)

Also on restructuring JoJo, we've done that already haven't we? Aren't we in danger of pushing money over to a point when were impinging on our ability to resign watt.

What we are in desperate need of is cap relief through drafting quality contributors throughout the draft. We've slipped in that department the last few years leaving us stuck without depth and having to oat FAs at a number of positions where Rookie contracts would be a lot cheaper.

steelbtexan
12-07-2013, 07:43 PM
No it's not, but the Texans Standard Operating Procedures is to restructure $5-$10 million.

Good news is that after the cap doesn't go up again, the NFLPA will sign off on an 18 game season.

Plus the Jags will probably be moving to London in exchange for more cap $$$$.

The owners have got the NFLPA where they want them for the next decade. I wonder how much damage God'ell can do to the integrity of the game in that time?

SchaubApologist
12-07-2013, 08:00 PM
Dont really care about other teams cap situations.

Would you let Schaub/JoJo walk and sign Cutler if he becomes a FA. Then draft a CB high in the draft?

lol, not happening. schaub/jjo require dead money on the books for 2014.

cutler.. HAHAAH

SchaubApologist
12-07-2013, 08:03 PM
Oh right that is a much less Rosie picture in that case :(

Schaub only saves us $4mm next year I think? (Thought there was a way we can get 10.5 this year but lose out in 2015)

Also on restructuring JoJo, we've done that already haven't we? Aren't we in danger of pushing money over to a point when were impinging on our ability to resign watt.

What we are in desperate need of is cap relief through drafting quality contributors throughout the draft. We've slipped in that department the last few years leaving us stuck without depth and having to oat FAs at a number of positions where Rookie contracts would be a lot cheaper.

We can cut matt schaub before june 1st and have 10.5 dead money for 2014. After June 1st will be 3.5 dead money in '14, and 7 for 2015.

We need to get it off the books ASAP.

Cut:
Schaub
Foster
Daniels
J-Jo
Manning

Don't resign:
Antonio Smith

2015 Cap would look great. Coincidentally the yr we have to sign Watt to a mega contract.

Texian
12-07-2013, 09:12 PM
Good news is that after the cap doesn't go up again, the NFLPA will sign off on an 18 game season.

Plus the Jags will probably be moving to London in exchange for more cap $$$$.

The owners have got the NFLPA where they want them for the next decade. I wonder how much damage God'ell can do to the integrity of the game in that time?

I think Goodell said the 17/18 game reg season would be 2015 at the earliest. the increase in the salary cap as a result would all go to help in re-signing JJ Watt.

gafftop
12-07-2013, 09:16 PM
Not only do we have at best average talent we also are in cap hell.

Why does McNair want to keep Smith??

aussie_texan
12-07-2013, 09:18 PM
once you cut schuab, OD, McCain/Harris, Reed,

you still have space to resign ninja and then watt in a few years.

depending on what the FO do regarding the QB situation they may have to let ninja walk in free agency if the FO go after a cutler or someone like that

Troy Chapman
12-09-2013, 01:34 PM
once you cut schuab, OD, McCain/Harris, Reed,

you still have space to resign ninja and then watt in a few years.

depending on what the FO do regarding the QB situation they may have to let ninja walk in free agency if the FO go after a cutler or someone like that

Cut 5 guys to resign 1? Still need to find four other free agents or draft picks to take the place of the other guys you cut. Shaub will be the only one in that list that will be released this off season.

Texian
12-09-2013, 02:21 PM
Cut 5 guys to resign 1?

That's about how they started the 2012 year. Never fully recovered.

Troy Chapman
12-11-2013, 03:42 PM
WoW big increase!

Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer 35m
Projected cap numbers for the following year are typically distributed at this meeting. NFL's projecting the '14 cap at $126.3 million

Dutchrudder
12-11-2013, 04:00 PM
Cool, now we just have to convince free agents that this team is worth playing for by getting a really good, promising coach.

aussie_texan
12-12-2013, 12:54 AM
Cut 5 guys to resign 1? Still need to find four other free agents or draft picks to take the place of the other guys you cut. Shaub will be the only one in that list that will be released this off season.

i never meant that. cutting five guys allows you to re-sign ninja and have plenty of cap left over to re-sign watt in a year or so and still have some money left over

Troy Chapman
12-12-2013, 08:41 AM
i never meant that. cutting five guys allows you to re-sign ninja and have plenty of cap left over to re-sign watt in a year or so and still have some money left over

OD, Harris and Reed's contracts end after 2014. Might as well keep them one more season. Doubt you resign Antonio regardless.

Surreal McCoy
12-12-2013, 09:59 AM
Not only do we have at best average talent we also are in cap hell.

Why does McNair want to keep Smith??

Because Rasputin has been telling him "the talent is there". Unfortunately this is being parroted by the majority of Texans fans, too.

Troy Chapman
12-12-2013, 10:19 AM
Because Rasputin has been telling him "the talent is there". Unfortunately this is being parroted by the majority of Texans fans, too.

The team had the talent to go 11-5 and 12-4 the last two seasons, very little has changed in the personnel department.

TEXANRED
12-12-2013, 10:53 AM
Because Rasputin has been telling him "the talent is there". Unfortunately this is being parroted by the majority of Texans fans, too.

AJ, Watt, Cushing, Brown, Hopkins, Foster, etc..... The talent is there. We have more talent than the Patriots, we just need coaching and some leadership.

Dutchrudder
12-12-2013, 11:15 AM
The team had the talent to go 11-5 and 12-4 the last two seasons, very little has changed in the personnel department.

That is true, but capability does degrade over time for older players.

"Probowl" QB Matt Schaub went from serviceable QB to Mark Sanchez. We will need to address this position next year in some way.
Wade Smith was a "probowl" guard just 2 years ago, and he will be out of the league next year.
Arian Foster was run into the ground last year, so he may not be himself ever again.
Tate will be leaving in free agency this year.
JJo is nowhere near as good as he was 2 years ago.
Probowler Danaiel Manning is injured and may not come back due to the severity of the issue.
Probowl TE Owen Daniels will likely be cut after this year due to cap concerns.
Garret Graham will need to be re-signed if we want to have a good TE, or we will have to find one in FA or the draft.
Derek Newton is still our RT and I think he actually got worse this year.
ILB is still a concern even if Cushing comes back healthy.
Our OLBs are atrocious. Mercilus is literally the only guy who could possibly start for another team, but it would have to be a crappy one.
Earl Mitchell is simply not a 34 NT. He will need to be replaced, unless we move to a 43.

So yeah, we are gonna have some holes to fill next year, QB, OG, RT, S, RB, TE, ILB, OLB, DT...
It's a laundry list of issues that need to be addressed, we are not the 2012 Chiefs, we will not win 13 games next year by simply plugging in the right coach. We will could compete for the division or a wild card, but this is not an AFC championship roster right now.

Marcus
12-13-2013, 03:29 PM
The team had the talent to go 11-5 and 12-4 the last two seasons, very little has changed in the personnel department.

:rolleyes: Ahhh yes, the continual never-ending game of finger pointing rolls right along.

(It's not the players, it's the coaches. No, it's not, it's the players, not the coaches. No, it's the players doing the playing. But it's the coaches doing the coaching. But the players have to execute. But the coaches have to get them ready to play. The players are professionals. They don't need to be motivated, they just need to play. No, it's the coaches. They are not getting them ready to play. They are playing not to lose. No, it's not, it's the players, not the coaches. No, it's the players doing the playing. But it's the coaches doing the coaching. But the players have to execute. But the coaches have to get them ready to play. The players are professionals. They don't need to be motivated, they just need to play. No, it's the coaches. They are not getting them ready to play. They are playing not to lose. No, it's not, it's the players, not the coaches. No, it's the players doing the playing. But it's the coaches doing the coaching. But the players have to execute. But the coaches have to get them ready to play. The players are professionals. They don't need to be motivated, they just need to play. No, it's the coaches. They are not getting them ready to play. They are playing not to lose. No, it's not, it's the players, not the coaches. No, it's the players doing the playing. But it's the coaches doing the coaching. But the players have to execute. But the coaches have to get them ready to play. The players are professionals. They don't need to be motivated, they just need to play. No, it's the coaches. They are not getting them ready to play. They are playing not to lose. )

:gun: