PDA

View Full Version : The 2014 NFL draft order


Bulls on Parade
12-01-2013, 07:41 PM
Can somebody link me to the draft order standings which also have the strength of schedule percentages? I know at 2-10 the Texans currently have the first overall pick with four games left because the Jaguars and Falcons won today, but I'd like to see the strength of schedule. Four teams may be tied at 3-9 if the Redskins lose tonight. The bottom line is the Texans will clinch the first pick if they lose all four games left. That much is certain.

Texian
12-01-2013, 07:44 PM
With Falcons, Jags and Vikes winning today, Texans currently have undisputed #1 pick.

Draft Order with opponents W-L %, will be updated on Tuesday: http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html

Bulls on Parade
12-01-2013, 07:48 PM
Thank you. Yeah, we're pretty much in the driver's seat now. If we lose Thursday Night at Jacksonville then it's really going to be interesting. The Jaguars are 3-1 in their last four games so they should be favored to win that game at home.

Playoffs
12-01-2013, 08:17 PM
Can somebody link me to the draft order...

http://walterfootball.com/draft2014.php

CharloTex
12-02-2013, 10:44 PM
http://walterfootball.com/draft2014.php

Walter Football follows the other sites, and late, may I say. For instance, it's wrong with your link. The first link by Texian (gbn...) is the gospel. I've followed it for years and personally check it against my own MS Excel spreadsheets. It's always spot on.

Texian
12-02-2013, 11:26 PM
December 2
(12:01 AM): Top of pick board shuffled ... With only the Monday nighter between leading NFC contenders New Orleans and Seattle to go this weekend, the top of the 2014 selection order has been set at least for this week. And there are some major changes from recent weeks. Indeed, if the draft were held this week, Houston would have the top pick, while Jacksonville, which won for the third time in four weeks, would have the second pick. Meanwhile, St. Louis would pick 3rd with Washington's pick which the Rams acquired from the Redskins in last year's trade that allowed Washington to select QB Robert Griffin with the 2nd pick at the 2012 draft. Atlanta would then have the 4th pick, followed by Tampa Bay at #5 and Minnesota at #6, with Cleveland, Oakland, Buffalo and Pittsburgh rounding out the top ten. As usual, the full first-round selection order for the upcoming draft willbe updated after the Monday night game

http://www.gbnreport.com/index.htm

Texian
12-02-2013, 11:43 PM
Updated: http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html

CharloTex
12-17-2013, 02:55 PM
Here's the update:

So long as we all agree that we are not going to beat Denver this coming weekend, we will have either the first or the second selection in the draft. We are currently positioned in first place. If we beat Tennessee in Week 17 AND Washington loses both this weekend to Dallas AND next weekend to NY Giants, only then would we be 2nd. The first pick would belong to St. Louis by virtue of a trade last year with Washington.

If Hades freezes over and we beat Denver this weekend, I'll update how we could then end up with the 1st thru 6th picks depending on our performance and other's in week 17.

Trap_Star
12-17-2013, 03:12 PM
As of today we're guaranteed a top 7 pick. lose sunday, guaranteed top 2, but if WAS wins we clinch the #1 pick.

looking at the winning percentages, we have 3rd hardest schedule to this point. KC has the easiest.

TexansFTW
12-17-2013, 03:19 PM
We MUST not tie the Skins. If we tie them, the Rams could very well trade down to some team that needs a franchise QB, which would likely be the Jags.

That would be horrible if they drafted Teddy B and he's half as good as I expect him to be. We'd be playing TB and Luck for the next 10 years... gracious.

CharloTex
12-17-2013, 04:13 PM
As of today we're guaranteed a top 7 pick. lose sunday, guaranteed top 2, but if WAS wins we clinch the #1 pick.

looking at the winning percentages, we have 3rd hardest schedule to this point. KC has the easiest.

Yes, perhaps mathematically it is still possible that we could fall all the way to the 7th position, but not likely in the real world. Right now, Tampa Bay's opponents have won 4 more games then our opponents. Some of the Texan's and Buc's opponents are common, but 11 are not. And one would think that 11 is a significant number, especially over two weeks. That would be 22 opportunities times 2 (them and us) equals 44, to narrow the 4 game gap.

But not so fast, for two reasons. First, if we were to win two weeks in a row in order to move up and tie Tampa Bay, that would reduce our opponent's winning percentage (by -3 games over 256 games). Also, if TB loses for two weeks so we can catch up to them, that would increase their opponent's winning percentage (+2 games over 256 - one game is against common opp. St. Louis). So that's 9 games to overcome right there (4 existing + 3 + 2).

Secondly, with many of the last two week's games being played amongst divisional opponents, both our opponents and TB's opponents have little opportunity as a collection to change the overall winning percentage, because one will win, and the other will lose, resulting in a wash.

So with all that in mind, in order to make up 9 games in two weeks, let's say that each team will make up 4.5 to meet in the middle. In order for the opponents to clear 4 to 5 games out of 22 played, no more than about 16 games can wash each other out, 8 per week. Most of those 8 games are washed out even before they are played, as the opponents are playing one another.

So even if it is mathematically possible, the planets would literally have to align in a perfectly straight line, including Pluto.

CharloTex
12-17-2013, 06:26 PM
I've done the math and here's how the planets would need to align for us to drop all the way to the 7th pick:

The Texans must win both remaining games, finishing at 4-12.

The Jags, Falcons, Raiders, Browns, and Bucs must lose both remaining games, all staying at 4-12. Washington must lose one more game, finishing no better than 4-12.

And in addition to ALL of the above happening, for a 6th/7th place coin flip w/ the Bucs, ALL 7 of the following 7 must happen [edit: Jets lose to Browns removed from list of 8 possible events]:

Week 16: [edit: not included in possible 7, as noted ...]
Jets lose to Browns [edit correction: this would defeat the above conditions - the Jets can't lose to the Browns because the Browns would then become a 5-game winner, leaving only 6 (not 7) remaining 4-12 or worse teams.]

Week 16
1. Eagles lose at home to Bears
2. Lions lose at home to Giants
3. Ravens at home beat Patriots

Week 17:
4. Eagles lose at Cowboys
5. Lions lose at Vikings
6. Bills lose at Patriots
7. Ravens on the road beat Bengals

Then we would need to lose the coin flip to be the 7th pick. If we won the coin flip, we'd be the 6th. In other "Houston wins out" scenarios, I'm sure we could finish 1st - 6th. But in all likelihood, we lose against the Broncos on Sunday and will be assured of either 1st or 2nd.

TexansFTW
12-17-2013, 06:46 PM
good research. i like watching scenarios.