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beerlover
11-18-2013, 12:28 PM
First Round: Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M, 6050 310

Second Round: Will Sutton, NT, Arizona State, 6010 300

Third Round: AJ McCarron, QB, Alabama, 6030 215

Fourth Round: Arthur Lynch, TE, Georgia, 6050 258

Fifth Round: Michael Dyer, RB, Louisville, 5090 217

Sixth Round: Chris Borland, ILB, Wisconsin, 5110 248

Seventh Round: Trey Hopkins, OG, Texas, 6040 300

Even with trading down there is just no way to cover all holes on this roster but at least this would stop some of the bleeding with safe, right the ship picks if in fact it is possible for Kubiak to save his job @ this point?

Big upgrade to OL well as heart/middle of defense. QB to groom under Keenum, TE to replace Owen & RB to replace Tate. :fostering:

htownfan32
11-18-2013, 01:04 PM
If AJ McCarron can read the blitz and get the ball out faster than Keenum I'm all for it.

Good draft, but no CB?

WolverineFan
11-18-2013, 01:07 PM
If AJ McCarron can read the blitz and get the ball out faster than Keenum I'm all for it.

Good draft, but no CB?

McCarron has great numbers against the blitz. The problem is, he has played behind the best O-Line in the country for 4 years so even when he's blitzed he's rarely truly pressured.

It will be interesting to see how he responds in the NFL when that's not the case.

rmartin65
11-18-2013, 01:11 PM
I really like this draft, with the exception of Sutton. I don't think he will be anything special in the NFL. Great college player, JAG in the NFL. Maybe slot a CB in there, and hope to fill the NT spot in FA.

Texian
11-18-2013, 02:04 PM
I like it but I don't think McCarron last to Rd 3. With media draftniks maybe, NFL draft boards probably not. I would guess McCarron is closer to Rd 1 than Rd 3. Like Lynch in Rd 4 and Hopkins in Rd 7. IMHO better value with Manziel Rd 1 and Schreff Rd 2. As for NT easier to find better value in FA at reasonable cost.

beerlover
11-18-2013, 02:11 PM
I really like this draft, with the exception of Sutton. I don't think he will be anything special in the NFL. Great college player, JAG in the NFL. Maybe slot a CB in there, and hope to fill the NT spot in FA.

Thanks Amigo,

It thought Mitchell had one of his best games but seemed like every time he made a play they rotated him out then nothing. Sutton is a better prospect coming out than Earl who was taken with high 3rd.

Like stated there are just more needs than picks even with a trade down plus have yet to identify a DB after priority needs are met, as BB states Texans can roll w/Kareem on the cheap for one more season.

WolverineFan
11-18-2013, 04:34 PM
I really like this draft, with the exception of Sutton. I don't think he will be anything special in the NFL. Great college player, JAG in the NFL. Maybe slot a CB in there, and hope to fill the NT spot in FA.

Sutton was a beast last year. He put on weight to take on double teams and looks slow. He would do better to get down to his previous weight. He's not a NT. Using him as one is a waste of his skills.

I agree with BL's assessment that he's a more talented Earl Mitchell. Both guys have the similar skill-set's. They are gap shooting 3' techniques that excel at rushing the passer. Like Mitchell, he would be miscast at NT in this defense.

aussie_texan
11-18-2013, 04:58 PM
who is your starting ILB and back ups next year?

Texian
11-18-2013, 05:52 PM
FWIW - I had Mitchell as 5th RD draft pick. Needless to say I was aghast when the Texans took him in the 3rd.

badboy
11-18-2013, 07:30 PM
Sutton was a beast last year. He put on weight to take on double teams and looks slow. He would do better to get down to his previous weight. He's not a NT. Using him as one is a waste of his skills.

I agree with BL's assessment that he's a more talented Earl Mitchell. Both guys have the similar skill-set's. They are gap shooting 3' techniques that excel at rushing the passer. Like Mitchell, he would be miscast at NT in this defense.I also agree with BL and 65 as we should move Mitchell over to take Ninja's place and back him with Crick for at least one more year.

beerlover
11-18-2013, 07:44 PM
who is your starting ILB and back ups next year?

Cushing & Sharpton starters.
Borland & Tarp back-ups.

steelbtexan
11-18-2013, 07:45 PM
I also agree with BL and 65 as we should move Mitchell over to take Ninja's place and back him with Crick for at least one more year.

Depends on what type of defense the new regime wants to run next yr.

aussie_texan
11-19-2013, 04:08 AM
Cushing & Sharpton starters.
Borland & Tarp back-ups.

and your happy with that?

Ps. tone my not come across right way with this wording, just asking.

beerlover
11-19-2013, 07:39 AM
and your happy with that?

Ps. tone my not come across right way with this wording, just asking.

I'd be super happy if both Cushing/Sharpton could stay healthy for a change. While adding a stud in 6th who could very well turn into a starter, elated!

Texian
11-19-2013, 08:54 AM
While adding a stud in 6th who could very well turn into a starter, elated!

Stud and 6th is a contradiction in terms covered and smothered with a whole lot of wishful hoping and thinking. :)

aussie_texan
11-19-2013, 08:58 AM
I'd be super happy if both Cushing/Sharpton could stay healthy for a change. While adding a stud in 6th who could very well turn into a starter, elated!

bolded are my concerns. mind you I really like mosley and am probably a little be biased. along with the terrible play of our current linebackers I'm perhaps overreacting when it comes drafting a ILB early

badboy
11-19-2013, 10:34 AM
I'd be super happy if both Cushing/Sharpton could stay healthy for a change. While adding a stud in 6th who could very well turn into a starter, elated!

Reminder Sharpton is a FA this off season & would probably sign up for reasonable amount but I am done with him.

Insideop
11-19-2013, 11:20 AM
BL, I like most of the positions you drafted and about 3 or 4 of the players. Can't argue with Matthews in the 1st. They have to do something about that right side and Newton isn't cutting it. We do have Quiz and Brennan Williams on IR so I'm sure between Matthews and those 2 they should be able to find their RT and maybe their LG.

Not sure about Sutton in the 2nd. I'm still holding out for a bigger NT like maybe Hageman, if he's still there, or Jones from Penn St. Sutton seems like Mitchell or T. McClain part 2. Just hope who ever the DC is next year will be inclined to go that direction. You can see what it does for teams like KC with Poe or Carolina with Lotulelei. And, it may help Cush stay healthy for a season.

McCarron in the 3rd I'm not really sold on either but it may be a good value. To be honest I'm not really sold on any of the QB's in this draft, so I could live with McCarron I guess. Just not excited about him and wouldn't mind waiting on another QB later and maybe pick up a CB/S here. I know there's a lot of questions moving forward with this team and who the coaches will be next season, but I really think Keenum can be the QB of this team and I hope they will give him a chance.

Lynch in the 4th would be a good replacement for OD who should be gone next season. If the Fiedorowicz kid is still there I'd rather they get him.

Dyer in the 5th I don't know much about but could be a good replacement for Tate.

Borland in the 6th would be great but I don't know if he lasts this long. They may have to take him earlier, but I think he would be a great fit for the LB corps. He's a little undersized (5'11") but a big time run stuffer.

Not sold on taking an OG in the 7th. Whoever you get here will probably not be as good as Ben Jones or Quiz. This spot could be used for a Special Teams player like a quick "scat back" type RB, or maybe another Safety or LBer.

Overall it looks like a good draft and I wouldn't be unhappy with the pickups. Like you said, there's too many holes to fill in one draft, but I think you got most of them.

badboy
11-19-2013, 12:15 PM
The biggest knock against McCarron seems to be he does well behind a great Oline so why not put him behind a great Oline in Houston. Brown, Quess, Myers/Jones, Brooks and Matthews. We want to build the line for Keenum anyway so McCarron would seem to be a perfect fit. My only concern is using that pick elsewhere.

bhsman
11-19-2013, 12:33 PM
The biggest knock against McCarron seems to be he does well behind a great Oline so why not put him behind a great Oline in Houston. Brown, Quess, Myers/Jones, Brooks and Matthews. We want to build the line for Keenum anyway so McCarron would seem to be a perfect fit. My only concern is using that pick elsewhere.

Except that is basically the same thing as saying he needs a good team around him to win (or at least he wins when there is a very good team around him). He's never been challenged in the way Manziel or Mariota or even Morris and Mettenberger have.

WolverineFan
11-19-2013, 12:50 PM
The biggest knock against McCarron seems to be he does well behind a great Oline so why not put him behind a great Oline in Houston. Brown, Quess, Myers/Jones, Brooks and Matthews. We want to build the line for Keenum anyway so McCarron would seem to be a perfect fit. My only concern is using that pick elsewhere.

Even behind that line, he's still just been a game manager his entire career. I can only recall one game during his tenure where he put the game on his shoulders and won it. That was the A&M game this year and, with their defense, that's not exactly impressive.

badboy
11-19-2013, 12:57 PM
Except that is basically the same thing as saying he needs a good team around him to win (or at least he wins when there is a very good team around him). He's never been challenged in the way Manziel or Mariota or even Morris and Mettenberger have.Still if GM puts decent team around him and he is coached up, I am willing to wait to see if he can stand up to challenge. Identify anything else wrong with him that rules him out as a NFL QB.

badboy
11-19-2013, 01:03 PM
Even behind that line, he's still just been a game manager his entire career. I can only recall one game during his tenure where he put the game on his shoulders and won it. That was the A&M game this year and, with their defense, that's not exactly impressive.There is only one QB in this draft that can "put game on his shoulders" and that is Manziel. He is not the QB I want so that leaves me comparing QBs to McCarron who as of now, we could get in late second. Other than Bridgewate, I take him over every other one. Murray is right there. AJ may not have taken it on his shoulders but he did not piss it away either.

beerlover
11-19-2013, 01:29 PM
BL, I like most of the positions you drafted and about 3 or 4 of the players. Can't argue with Matthews in the 1st. They have to do something about that right side and Newton isn't cutting it. We do have Quiz and Brennan Williams on IR so I'm sure between Matthews and those 2 they should be able to find their RT and maybe their LG.

Not sure about Sutton in the 2nd. I'm still holding out for a bigger NT like maybe Hageman, if he's still there, or Jones from Penn St. Sutton seems like Mitchell or T. McClain part 2. Just hope who ever the DC is next year will be inclined to go that direction. You can see what it does for teams like KC with Poe or Carolina with Lotulelei. And, it may help Cush stay healthy for a season.

McCarron in the 3rd I'm not really sold on either but it may be a good value. To be honest I'm not really sold on any of the QB's in this draft, so I could live with McCarron I guess. Just not excited about him and wouldn't mind waiting on another QB later and maybe pick up a CB/S here. I know there's a lot of questions moving forward with this team and who the coaches will be next season, but I really think Keenum can be the QB of this team and I hope they will give him a chance.

Lynch in the 4th would be a good replacement for OD who should be gone next season. If the Fiedorowicz kid is still there I'd rather they get him.

Dyer in the 5th I don't know much about but could be a good replacement for Tate.

Borland in the 6th would be great but I don't know if he lasts this long. They may have to take him earlier, but I think he would be a great fit for the LB corps. He's a little undersized (5'11") but a big time run stuffer.

Not sold on taking an OG in the 7th. Whoever you get here will probably not be as good as Ben Jones or Quiz. This spot could be used for a Special Teams player like a quick "scat back" type RB, or maybe another Safety or LBer.

Overall it looks like a good draft and I wouldn't be unhappy with the pickups. Like you said, there's too many holes to fill in one draft, but I think you got most of them.

Thanks for your feedback!

You hit on something I want to expound on & those are roster holes that require immediate help. These are all Seniors well seasoned & coach'ed all way down list, maybe not the highest ceilings but focusing on safe, immediate ability to contribute, high character/leadership people. We also must consider some free agent moves to address needs prior to draft that will influence exactly who they target. OT, DT, QB, TE, RB, ILB, OG seems like a resonable hiarchey of needs.

badboy
11-19-2013, 01:39 PM
Thanks for your feedback!

You hit on something I want to expound on & those are roster holes that require immediate help. These are all Seniors well seasoned & coach'ed all way down list, maybe not the highest ceilings but focusing on safe, immediate ability to contribute, high character/leadership people. We also must consider some free agent moves to address needs prior to draft that will influence exactly who they target. OT, DT, QB, TE, RB, ILB, OG seems like a resonable hiarchey of needs.I agree with this as we need to hit solidly on each of first four rounds with minimal risk. Another reason I don't want Manziel who is high reward but very high risk. I almost can put Clowney there also though many will disagree.

beerlover
11-19-2013, 02:07 PM
bolded are my concerns. mind you I really like mosley and am probably a little be biased. along with the terrible play of our current linebackers I'm perhaps overreacting when it comes drafting a ILB early

I've already had Mack in 1st & Mosley is even safer pick, but flash back last year, you'll see my Texan 1st rd. projection was Alec Ogletree. Now Texans have chance to add bookend OT or franchise QB.

Insideop
11-19-2013, 04:07 PM
I agree with this as we need to hit solidly on each of first four rounds with minimal risk. Another reason I don't want Manziel who is high reward but very high risk. I almost can put Clowney there also though many will disagree.

I don't disagree. I don't want anything to do with Clowney and I hope whoever the GM and coaches are next season do not pick him! The high risk and high reward tag that Manziel has is different from Clowney's. Manziel won't quit on his team and only play when he wants too. Sure Clowney has tons of talent, but what good does it do the team if he doesn't feel like playing! People here dogged Mario for only showing up sometimes but I don't think Mario ever quit on his team in college and I don't think he ever quit on the Texans while he was playing here. If it were up to me I'd pass on Clowney and Manziel. The risk is too great for either one.

kiwitexansfan
11-19-2013, 04:09 PM
Remove McCarron, add in an OLB or CB in the 3rd and I'm happy.

bhsman
11-19-2013, 05:17 PM
There is only one QB in this draft that can "put game on his shoulders" and that is Manziel. He is not the QB I want so that leaves me comparing QBs to McCarron who as of now, we could get in late second. Other than Bridgewate, I take him over every other one. Murray is right there. AJ may not have taken it on his shoulders but he did not piss it away either.

Manziel is the only QB that you think can drag his team to a win, therefore you don't want him.

What.

Texian
11-19-2013, 05:33 PM
Even behind that line, he's still just been a game manager his entire career. I can only recall one game during his tenure where he put the game on his shoulders and won it. That was the A&M game this year and, with their defense, that's not exactly impressive.

The SEC Championship game last year.

WolverineFan
11-19-2013, 05:41 PM
The SEC Championship game last year.

He threw for 162 with 1 TD and 1 INT. He had a QBR of 37.5 in that game.

Lacy and Yeldon combined for 330+ rushing yards and 3 TD's. Not to mention roughly half of his passing yards were YAC by Amari Cooper. McCarron had as much to do with that win as I did.

Texian
11-19-2013, 05:56 PM
He threw for 162 with 1 TD and 1 INT. He had a QBR of 37.5 in that game.

Lacy and Yeldon combined for 330+ rushing yards and 3 TD's. Not to mention roughly half of his passing yards were YAC by Amari Cooper. McCarron had as much to do with that win as I did.

Were they not down late in 4th Quarter and McCarron engineered a comeback? or am I thinking of another game?

WolverineFan
11-19-2013, 05:58 PM
Were they not down late in 4th Quarter and McCarron engineered a comeback? or am I thinking of another game?

If running the ball down the field and then hitting a wide open playaction pass for a TD is putting the team on your shoulders then sure count it.

Texian
11-19-2013, 06:05 PM
If running the ball down the field and then hitting a wide open playaction pass for a TD is putting the team on your shoulders then sure count it.

I guess we have a different outlook and opinion. I consider throwing a 45 yd TD pass with 3 minutes left in SEC Championship game against a very good Georgia defense, a pretty big deal. To me that is one of the most important factors in evaluating a QB, how they perform late in the game coming from behind or engineering a game winning drive. Most guys are app to throw the INT.

WolverineFan
11-19-2013, 06:25 PM
I guess we have a different outlook and opinion. I consider throwing a 45 yd TD pass with 3 minutes left in SEC Championship game against a very good Georgia defense, a pretty big deal. To me that is one of the most important factors in evaluating a QB, how they perform late in the game coming from behind or engineering a game winning drive. Most guys are app to throw the INT.

That's true and it's a good point. I was merely pointing out that he was a non-factor in the game until that final TD pass. Maybe if they have a different QB it's a blowout because with the way they were running the ball it should have been.

leebigeztx
11-19-2013, 06:37 PM
Yall remember when aaron curry was the safe pick? How many safe millionaires are there in the world? Safe is another word for scared. You can try to be safe and the guy will still be a bust. Gronk nor hernandez were safe picks. Jimmy Graham, dez bryant, nor gates were safe picks. If you want to not draftbs guy because he was a trouble maker, ok. You shouldnt br scared of a playrr brcause he hss s giant upside.

bhsman
11-19-2013, 07:00 PM
Last year's SEC championship game is remembered more for being TJ Yeldon's coming out party than McCarron putting the team on his shoulders.

Insideop
11-19-2013, 08:58 PM
Yall remember when aaron curry was the safe pick? How many safe millionaires are there in the world? Safe is another word for scared. You can try to be safe and the guy will still be a bust. Gronk nor hernandez were safe picks. Jimmy Graham, dez bryant, nor gates were safe picks. If you want to not draftbs guy because he was a trouble maker, ok. You shouldnt br scared of a playrr brcause he hss s giant upside.

Well, I remember a draft when the Texans picked a 19 year old DT with a lot of upside but somewhat of a high risk, and passed on a LBer named Willis. This MB never let them hear the end of it! So, your damned if you do and damned if you don't! I'd rather they take Matthews or someone like him who is a solid prospect that has some upside rather than take a Manziel or Clowney who have more upside but far more risk.

leebigeztx
11-20-2013, 02:17 AM
Well, I remember a draft when the Texans picked a 19 year old DT with a lot of upside but somewhat of a high risk, and passed on a LBer named Willis. This MB never let them hear the end of it! So, your damned if you do and damned if you don't! I'd rather they take Matthews or someone like him who is a solid prospect that has some upside rather than take a Manziel or Clowney who have more upside but far more risk.



That's because they didn't take the best player. They tried to fill a ned. Willis killed the sec and ran a 4.37 at 6'2 240lbs. How is that not high upside?. Just like passing dez bryant for kareem jackson. Or titans fans will remember dyson vs randy moss. The point is all these guys are boom or bust. Jayson smith and robert gallery were safe picks too. Joe thomas is great, but when was the last time the champ has had a great left tackle drafted that high? Ogdon and pace and that was 15 yrs ago.

Drafting this big kid from miami of ohio or deleware was very risky. Those guys coming from those small schools going top 10 is super duper risky,but look at the payoff. That's what its about. The best way to sustained success is by having a franchise qb,not a franchise left or right tackle. You have to have a qb who can beat andrew luck,big ben,peyton,brady, etc. If you don't,your team will be inconsistent in making the playoffs. Even if the qb needs a yr to develop, if he has franchise qb skills,you can't pass him for a rt or de.

beerlover
11-20-2013, 10:56 AM
That's because they didn't take the best player. They tried to fill a ned. Willis killed the sec and ran a 4.37 at 6'2 240lbs. How is that not high upside?. Just like passing dez bryant for kareem jackson. Or titans fans will remember dyson vs randy moss. The point is all these guys are boom or bust. Jayson smith and robert gallery were safe picks too. Joe thomas is great, but when was the last time the champ has had a great left tackle drafted that high? Ogdon and pace and that was 15 yrs ago.

Drafting this big kid from miami of ohio or deleware was very risky. Those guys coming from those small schools going top 10 is super duper risky,but look at the payoff. That's what its about. The best way to sustained success is by having a franchise qb,not a franchise left or right tackle. You have to have a qb who can beat andrew luck,big ben,peyton,brady, etc. If you don't,your team will be inconsistent in making the playoffs. Even if the qb needs a yr to develop, if he has franchise qb skills,you can't pass him for a rt or de.

Good stuff, always enjoyed your draft approach & just pure scouting in general!

Safe was not the correct choice of words, more like just don't F it up, measure risk vs reward & make best buisness decision. Matthews fits perfectly, Sutton could be a very physical DE & kick inside. McCarron would be a good back-up, hard to judge upside? Question arm strength, mobility & athletic ability but he looks really strong @ times. Lynch is a perfect system fit but what if all that changes? Dyer is a bell cow back, very important addition. Borland will find a way to start. OG depth always good.

Insideop
11-20-2013, 12:54 PM
They tried to fill a ned. Willis killed the sec and ran a 4.37 at 6'2 240lbs. HowThat's because they didn't take the best player. is that not high upside?. Just like passing dez bryant for kareem jackson. Or titans fans will remember dyson vs randy moss. The point is all these guys are boom or bust. Jayson smith and robert gallery were safe picks too. Joe thomas is great, but when was the last time the champ has had a great left tackle drafted that high? Ogdon and pace and that was 15 yrs ago.

Drafting this big kid from miami of ohio or deleware was very risky. Those guys coming from those small schools going top 10 is super duper risky,but look at the payoff. That's what its about. The best way to sustained success is by having a franchise qb,not a franchise left or right tackle. You have to have a qb who can beat andrew luck,big ben,peyton,brady, etc. If you don't,your team will be inconsistent in making the playoffs. Even if the qb needs a yr to develop, if he has franchise qb skills,you can't pass him for a rt or de.

Picking only the BPA is a recipe for disaster in the 1st few rounds, and I don't think any team really does this unless they are so stacked at all positions it doesn't matter. And, in this day and age, with all of the cap concerns, I don't think you'll see many stacked teams, if any. Seattle and SF may be the closest. All teams pick the BPA at a position of need. It's the only thing that makes sense. If your team is desperate for OLB's but the BPA is a WR and you are "stacked" at that position, do you get the WR or the BPA at OLB? I know there's a lot more to it than that and a lot of things can come into play, but basically teams, especially in the 1st 3 rds, will go for the BPA at a position of need. That's why Willis fell past #10.

Now, about the QB position. I personally don't see a QB in this class like Luck, Manning, Elway, etc... You may get lucky and find a Brady in the later rounds but I just don't see it yet. As for a small school QB to develop, the kid from Eastern Illinois may turn out to be pretty good. He's rated a 3rd rounder by NFLDraftScout.com right now but could be moving up draft boards. If he's there in the 3rd for the Texans, I have no problem with them taking him. If he moves into the 1st round talk, well I don't know yet. We still have to find out what Case can do. If Case shows bad in the last few games then QB could become a higher priority. And, the risk will go up on the pick. If the kid is there and he's the BPA at a position of need, take him!

leebigeztx
11-20-2013, 03:15 PM
Picking only the BPA is a recipe for disaster in the 1st few rounds, and I don't think any team really does this unless they are so stacked at all positions it doesn't matter. And, in this day and age, with all of the cap concerns, I don't think you'll see many stacked teams, if any. Seattle and SF may be the closest. All teams pick the BPA at a position of need. It's the only thing that makes sense. If your team is desperate for OLB's but the BPA is a WR and you are "stacked" at that position, do you get the WR or the BPA at OLB? I know there's a lot more to it than that and a lot of things can come into play, but badsically teams, especially in the 1st 3 rds, will go for the BPA at a position of need. That's why Willis fell past #10.

Now, about the QB position. I personally don't see a QB in this class like Luck, Manning, Elway, etc... You may get lucky and find a Brady in the later rounds but I just don't see it yet. As for a small school QB to develop, the kid from Eastern Illinois may turn out to be pretty good. He's rated a 3rd rounder by NFLDraftScout.com right now but could be moving up draft boards. If he's there in the 3rd for the Texans, I have no problem with them taking him. If he moves into the 1st round talk, well I don't know yet. We still have to find out what Case can do. If Case shows bad in the last few games then QB could become a higher priority. And, the risk will go up on the pick. If the kid is there and he's the BPA at a position of need, take him!

The flaw in you're thinking which may or may not be like the texans is the reason the texans are sucking right now and have passed on elite talent. A draft board is stacked vertical and horizontal. As players come off the board, you slide the bar. You always take the best player availible. Passing on wilis who was the bpa because you needed a dt and they had demeco was a mistake. They could've played willis at wolb like derrick brooks. You always take the bpa on your board regardless of position. You never have enough high end football players.

Back to this qb discussion, you may not see a manning,elway,or a guy of that ilk. I'm as big of luck fan as anyone,but he's not on that level either. My question is, do you see flacco,eli,big ben,tanneyhill,kaepernick, type of talent? What I mean by that are guys with elith elite tools, who can play elite with coaching. I see a few of those guys and if you see one,you have to take him imo. Not only that, you have to take him early also. I see mariotta,boyd,hundley,and even manziel as guys with elite skills. Its possible,but its rare to find guys with elite skills at the qb position late in the draft. Late in the game, you need a guy with elite skills.

bhsman
11-20-2013, 03:24 PM
Picking for need leads to reaching on some picks, but picking BPA that aligns with need is probably the best move.

leebigeztx
11-20-2013, 03:32 PM
Picking for need leads to reaching on some picks, but picking BPA that aligns with need is probably the best move.

When your scouts do their job right,that's how it stacks up. When the patriot drafted mallett ,that was bpa. Kareem Jackson vs Dez Bryant wasn't even need vs bpa,that was just dumb.

Texian
11-20-2013, 03:33 PM
Picking only the BPA is a recipe for disaster in the 1st few rounds,

Now, imagine, if you will, what would the Texans roster look like if they had taken the BPA instead of reaching for a need.

Contrary to your arguments, the better teams more often go with the BPA and those teams that are not more often go with their biggest need.

leebigeztx
11-20-2013, 03:43 PM
Now, imagine, if you will, what would the Texans roster look like if they had taken the BPA instead of reaching for a need.

Contrary to your arguments, the better teams more often go with the BPA and those teams that are not more often go with their biggest need.

Yep! Unless you have an elite qb and you're drafting high enough to take one is the only way you pass one. That probably don't happen because when yoi have an elite guy at qb, you're probably not drafting high unless that guy missed the yr with injury. Big ben,eli,and now flacco are getting their teams off the carpet and will be closer to .500 vs 4 wins.

Insideop
11-20-2013, 03:54 PM
Picking for need leads to reaching on some picks, but picking BPA that aligns with need is probably the best move.

Thanks. This is what I was trying to say, and it's what most NFL teams do. Even the teams that are fairly well stacked have weaknesses that they will try to fill with BPA. How many think the Pats won't take a WR or TE within the 1st 2 rounds this coming draft?

Insideop
11-20-2013, 04:30 PM
Now, imagine, if you will, what would the Texans roster look like if they had taken the BPA instead of reaching for a need.

Contrary to your arguments, the better teams more often go with the BPA and those teams that are not more often go with their biggest need.

The Texans had a pretty good roster 2 years ago with a lot of talent, whether you can admit it or not. Now, because of the cap, we've lost a lot of those players and unfortunately don't have the depth anymore to weather the injury bug. Is that the fault of coaches and/or the GM, ultimately yes, and they will probably pay with their jobs. But the team was built picking the BPA at a position of need. Of course, if a team has no needs, they will just pick the BPA. But, how many of those teams are out there?

Here's an example of how a good team goes with the BPA at a position of need:

Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl. They let Ed reed go and Ray Lewis retired. They need a Safety and a LBer. Guess what Ozzie (who's considered one of the best) the GM picks? Matt Elam, Safety from Florida, and, knowing the Texans were going to pick Arthur Brown, a LBer, at #57. They traded up to get him at #56. Now, was that picking for need or BPA?

leebigeztx
11-20-2013, 04:59 PM
The Texans had a pretty good roster 2 years ago with a lot of talent, whether you can admit it or not. Now, because of the cap, we've lost a lot of those players and unfortunately don't have the depth anymore to weather the injury bug. Is that the fault of coaches and/or the GM, ultimately yes, and they will probably pay with their jobs. But the team was built picking the BPA at a position of need. Of course, if a team has no needs, they will just pick the BPA. But, how many of those teams are out there?

Here's an example of how a good team goes with the BPA at a position of need:

Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl. They let Ed reed go and Ray Lewis retired. They need a Safety and a LBer. Guess what Ozzie (who's considered one of the best) the GM picks? Matt Elam, Safety from Florida, and, knowing the Texans were going to pick Arthur Brown, a LBer, at #57. They traded up to get him at #56. Now, was that picking for need or BPA?

You're making a lot of assumptions with the whole deal. They signed huff, wouldn't that fill the need? They also signed smith and dumervill before the draft,so why wouldn't they pass on aurthur brown? Not to mention you have no earthly idea as to where brown was on the texans board. If the texans felt that great about brown,they could've moved up with that extra 3rd rd pick to get him.

bhsman
11-20-2013, 06:58 PM
Elam and Brown were considered 1st-2nd round prospects, so they aligned with a need and were BPAs.

Texian
11-21-2013, 10:06 AM
The Texans had a pretty good roster 2 years ago with a lot of talent, whether you can admit it or not. Now, because of the cap, we've lost a lot of those players and unfortunately don't have the depth anymore to weather the injury bug. Is that the fault of coaches and/or the GM, ultimately yes, and they will probably pay with their jobs. But the team was built picking the BPA at a position of need. Of course, if a team has no needs, they will just pick the BPA. But, how many of those teams are out there?

Here's an example of how a good team goes with the BPA at a position of need:

Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl. They let Ed reed go and Ray Lewis retired. They need a Safety and a LBer. Guess what Ozzie (who's considered one of the best) the GM picks? Matt Elam, Safety from Florida, and, knowing the Texans were going to pick Arthur Brown, a LBer, at #57. They traded up to get him at #56. Now, was that picking for need or BPA?

Here is my best explanation of why the Texans are in the pickle they're in today and I do admit their best team was in 2011:

"With Kubiak on the hot seat after the 2010 season, Smubiak mortgaged the farm prior to the 2011 season. The BIG spending along with Peyton's broken neck, Jeff Fisher's departure and a favorable schedule enabled the Texans to be much improved. Starting with the 2012 season, payments for the 2011 mortgage loan became due. In order to pay the piper, the Texans had to make one to many trips to the Pawn Shop, along with refinancing the mortgage each year, just to meet their minimal financial obligations for each season since 2011. As a result their standard of living has declined significantly and Smubiak is about to lose the farm."

Picking for need or BPA? As you noted, Lewis retired, also Ellerbe was a FA so was Arthur Brown Need or BPA. Knowing Ozzie I suggest that Brown was likely the BPA on Ozzie's draft board, if Brown was not, I don't think Ozzie would have traded up to get him. Stories are abound how Ozzie stays true to his draft board. I think Ozzie traded up for BPA on his draft board that also filled a need.

steelbtexan
11-21-2013, 10:32 AM
Yep! Unless you have an elite qb and you're drafting high enough to take one is the only way you pass one. That probably don't happen because when yoi have an elite guy at qb, you're probably not drafting high unless that guy missed the yr with injury. Big ben,eli,and now flacco are getting their teams off the carpet and will be closer to .500 vs 4 wins.

Agree with you on the elite QB thing. How ever this isn't an elite QB yr in the 2014 draft. The 2015 draft is an elite QB yr.

1 or maybe 2 QB's may become a Russell Wilson/Tony Romo type QB, but I while they are very good I dont consider them to be elite QB's.

leebigeztx
11-22-2013, 01:28 AM
Agree with you on the elite QB thing. How ever this isn't an elite QB yr in the 2014 draft. The 2015 draft is an elite QB yr.

1 or maybe 2 QB's may become a Russell Wilson/Tony Romo type QB, but I while they are very good I dont consider them to be elite QB's.

There is 1 elite skilled qb next yr and that's winston. Unless you think the texans are gonna be a 2 win team again, how you gonna get him. After last season,people thought 2014 was the qb yr,now its moved to a thinner weaker 2015 qb class. Point is,any high draft pick is a gamble. As safe as matthews seem to be, robert gallery was just as safe. I don't recall a singular draft analyst proclaiming rivers,eli,and ben to be elite qb prospect in 04. No one said ben would be a top 5 type qb coming from miami of ohio. What ben did have were elite physical tools. Even prior to his heisman yr, nobody declared rg3 as a top 2 prospect at qb. Just because you don't see manning or luck doesn't mean you pass a high ceiling guy at qb early.

steelbtexan
11-22-2013, 01:52 AM
There is 1 elite skilled qb next yr and that's winston. Unless you think the texans are gonna be a 2 win team again, how you gonna get him. After last season,people thought 2014 was the qb yr,now its moved to a thinner weaker 2015 qb class. Point is,any high draft pick is a gamble. As safe as matthews seem to be, robert gallery was just as safe. I don't recall a singular draft analyst proclaiming rivers,eli,and ben to be elite qb prospect in 04. No one said ben would be a top 5 type qb coming from miami of ohio. What ben did have were elite physical tools. Even prior to his heisman yr, nobody declared rg3 as a top 2 prospect at qb. Just because you don't see manning or luck doesn't mean you pass a high ceiling guy at qb early.

I see Winston/Petty/Hogan as better than any QB coming out in this yrs draft.

Apparently Accorsi saw Manning as a franchise QB since he took him at #1. A.J.Smith saw Rivers as though he was as good as Manning and had the ability to trade down and garner extra picks. The knocks on Roethlisberger was that he played against small school competition. (Same as Bridgewater somewhat) They all had the talent.

I see the Texans in the same spot as the Cardinals in that draft. They had the chance to pick Ben but went the safe route and took Fitzgerald.

Bridgewater is comparable to Big Ben in competition/potential. Talent wise Mettenberger is closest to Roethlisberger. IMHO Where do you rank Mettenberger?

leebigeztx
11-22-2013, 09:41 AM
I see Winston/Petty/Hogan as better than any QB coming out in this yrs draft.

Apparently Accorsi saw Manning as a franchise QB since he took him at #1. A.J.Smith saw Rivers as though he was as good as Manning and had the ability to trade down and garner extra picks. The knocks on Roethlisberger was that he played against small school competition. (Same as Bridgewater somewhat) They all had the talent.

I see the Texans in the same spot as the Cardinals in that draft. They had the chance to pick Ben but went the safe route and took Fitzgerald.

Bridgewater is comparable to Big Ben in competition/potential. Talent wise Mettenberger
is closest to Roethlisberger. IMHO Where do you rank Mettenberger?

I try to like mettenberger,but his inconsistencies always crop back into it. If I were to line it up after bridgewater and base it on talent,I would probably have boyd/manziel splitting hairs followed by mariotta,hundley,murray. I can't lie,manziel is probably the most difficult qb for me to get a read on. I would put metternberger tie him with mccarron. I think those guys are in the barkley class of qb.

Winston is not a better talent than bridgewater and hogan is not close to the talent of more than a few guys imo. Haven't seen enough of petty yet. I remember coming into this year falas was suppose to be the small school qb everyone loved and that didn't last long. Derek Carr is worse than his brother talent wise.I think with minny,jax,clev,all looking for signal callers,the texans can't move to far before they miss the big talent guy. If you held my feet to the fire and they were drafting 4th or 5th, I might just take boyd.

Why? He has a lot of mcnabb and cutler both good and bad. He's built like a tank,can throw the ball from multiple angles and he can run. He will throw a ground ball,but that's mostly mechanical. I can tell by his ball handling he probaly has 10" hands. He's probably gonna measure in at 6'0 maybe 6'1,but he's about 220 and rocked up. People will point to the fsu game and he didn't play well,but I'm looking at his body of work and upside.

Honoring Earl 34
11-22-2013, 09:50 AM
There is 1 elite skilled qb next yr and that's winston. Unless you think the texans are gonna be a 2 win team again, how you gonna get him. After last season,people thought 2014 was the qb yr,now its moved to a thinner weaker 2015 qb class. Point is,any high draft pick is a gamble. As safe as matthews seem to be, robert gallery was just as safe. I don't recall a singular draft analyst proclaiming rivers,eli,and ben to be elite qb prospect in 04. No one said ben would be a top 5 type qb coming from miami of ohio. What ben did have were elite physical tools. Even prior to his heisman yr, nobody declared rg3 as a top 2 prospect at qb. Just because you don't see manning or luck doesn't mean you pass a high ceiling guy at qb early.

Eric Winston said that Gallery's main issue was he had small feet . We need Al Bundy as a scout I guess .

leebigeztx
11-22-2013, 10:08 AM
Eric Winston said that Gallery's main issue was he had small feet . We need Al Bundy as a scout I guess .

Most people questioned his toughness. He would block a guy,but wouldn't put the guy on the ground when he had the chance.

badboy
11-22-2013, 01:28 PM
Most people questioned his toughness. He would block a guy,but wouldn't put the guy on the ground when he had the chance.

I think Gallery used his size to work an opponent rather than skills to dominate. I think that is part of Derek Newton's problem also.

beerlover
11-22-2013, 02:51 PM
Gallery is a flashback. Remember I was enamored with his pan cackling ends & wide body insulation to a QB (finding tackle help 4 Carr was big need back then too) which drives home importance of identifying BPA despite immediate need.

leebigeztx
11-22-2013, 03:07 PM
Gallery is a flashback. Remember I was enamored with his pan cackling ends & wide body insulation to a QB (finding tackle help 4 Carr was big need back then too) which drives home importance of identifying BPA despite immediate need.

Yep. Always take bpa. Now in the perfect world,bpa will fill a need also. I can't remember who,but I asked if Mike Evans is the highest rated player at 5,do you take him? My answer is yes and it has 0 to do with trying to trade andre,its just bpa. For all the crap millen took and he deserves it,he still took megatron despite taking roy williams and mike williams in previous drafts.

Exascor
11-22-2013, 03:12 PM
Yep. Always take bpa. Now in the perfect world,bpa will fill a need also. I can't remember who,but I asked if Mike Evans is the highest rated player at 5,do you take him? My answer is yes and it has 0 to do with trying to trade andre,its just bpa. For all the crap millen took and he deserves it,he still took megatron despite taking roy williams and mike williams in previous drafts.

So if the best player available is a QB and you've drafted a QB in the first round for the past 3 years, do you still draft bpa?

Eventually you have to take bpa at a position of need or at least don't take a player in a position you have no need for.

badboy
11-22-2013, 07:25 PM
So if the best player available is a QB and you've drafted a QB in the first round for the past 3 years, do you still draft bpa?

Eventually you have to take bpa at a position of need or at least don't take a player in a position you have no need for.Yep but you ain't gonna win that war with BPA only folks. For the Texans, BPA each round would probably hit a priority or at least strong need. There can always be exception to filling a need such as a franchise type player when you need maybe a safety.

Don't know about you but I like to evaluate players and when selecting one, be aware of what is coming up in next one to two rounds at least. For example, we need to replace ILB but why go Mosley when you can get a very good linebacker in second or third round? Why draft Matthews in first if you think Antonio Richardson in second can lock down RT for 10 years? I definitely want to get into position to go BPA most rounds but this off season ain't gonna be it. However, if things go well (and when do they ever?) we can set this roster up for success.

I think Texans fans will be agreeable with almost any plan if they know McNair is committed to building a strong team. 4-3 or 3-4, ZBS or power blocking; run oriented, pass first or a mixture; Cam Newton or RG3 type QB as long as it produces football that we enjoy watching and bragging about, fan will be fanatics. That is what we do.

Oh and this :slapfight:

steelbtexan
11-23-2013, 12:26 AM
Yep but you ain't gonna win that war with BPA only folks. For the Texans, BPA each round would probably hit a priority or at least strong need. There can always be exception to filling a need such as a franchise type player when you need maybe a safety.

Don't know about you but I like to evaluate players and when selecting one, be aware of what is coming up in next one to two rounds at least. For example, we need to replace ILB but why go Mosley when you can get a very good linebacker in second or third round? Why draft Matthews in first if you think Antonio Richardson in second can lock down RT for 10 years? I definitely want to get into position to go BPA most rounds but this off season ain't gonna be it. However, if things go well (and when do they ever?) we can set this roster up for success.

I think Texans fans will be agreeable with almost any plan if they know McNair is committed to building a strong team. 4-3 or 3-4, ZBS or power blocking; run oriented, pass first or a mixture; Cam Newton or RG3 type QB as long as it produces football that we enjoy watching and bragging about, fan will be fanatics. That is what we do.

Oh and this :slapfight:

I'm a fan of BPA and if say Watkins is BPA and I'm stacked at WR I would try to trade down and accumulate more draft picks. This helps turn the odds in your favor. I will say if you've got a player rated head and shoulders above everybody else on your board you should pick him. Example: Watt, DE wasn't a huge need but Wade took him because he was way higher rated than everybody else on the board.

I try to look at the draft in 2 yr cycles. The OL/DL was very strong last yr, LB's not so much. This yr LB's are strong. So I wouldn't reach for a LB last yr if it was a need, because I know I can get a better LB this yr and use the 2013 draft to fortify the OL/DL and fill in the gaps with FA's.

Hope you can understand my philosophy, this was a poorly written post. LOL

beerlover
11-23-2013, 07:40 AM
I'm a fan of BPA and if say Watkins is BPA and I'm stacked at WR I would try to trade down and accumulate more draft picks. This helps turn the odds in your favor. I will say if you've got a player rated head and shoulders above everybody else on your board you should pick him. Example: Watt, DE wasn't a huge need but Wade took him because he was way higher rated than everybody else on the board.

I try to look at the draft in 2 yr cycles. The OL/DL was very strong last yr, LB's not so much. This yr LB's are strong. So I wouldn't reach for a LB last yr if it was a need, because I know I can get a better LB this yr and use the 2013 draft to fortify the OL/DL and fill in the gaps with FA's.

Hope you can understand my philosophy, this was a poorly written post. LOL

Not poorly written at all. Generally if we give a prospect 3 years to grade, influencing future contract offer, we should also look three years ahead in draft cycle. People who arn't into what we do in mock threads cannot fathome why or how we can discuss these topics year round & reason is the process of player evaluation is continuous, year round. Bottom line, in our own little way we are trying to help find answers to player personal questions.

If you are certain Watt is best player on board I would take him this year, next year & the year after that. Imagine a front line with three JJ's? But seriously, odds of BPA being same position in consecutive seasons rare, so there shouldn't be any conflict. Nobody cares or even remembers where you selected a player only that he works out & fills a need on Texans so they can improve.

otisbean
11-23-2013, 08:35 AM
I agree with both you guys, draft your BPA then use FA to fill needs/cover gaps

infantrycak
11-23-2013, 01:30 PM
Nobody cares or even remembers where you selected a player only that he works out & fills a need on Texans so they can improve.

That is a demonstrably false statement. Only about a million comments were made on Mario alone with qualifiers such as "for a #1 pick." Good and bad statements are made like OD being a great TE especially for a 4th round pick. People compare performance to draft place constantly.

badboy
11-23-2013, 02:06 PM
I agree with both you guys, draft your BPA then use FA to fill needs/cover gapsThe current CBA has reduced space to allow FAs to make much difference. I think days of bringing in two big FAs like Joseph and Manning are done. The draft is way to build the roster but we have to be better at it.
We could get an average guy like Joe Mays to shore up a hole but that too is hit or miss.

otisbean
11-23-2013, 07:11 PM
The current CBA has reduced space to allow FAs to make much difference. I think days of bringing in two big FAs like Joseph and Manning are done. The draft is way to build the roster but we have to be better at it.
We could get an average guy like Joe Mays to shore up a hole but that too is hit or miss.

I wasn't thinking of adding a JJo type player, more like a Joe Mays to plug holes. If you can find a serviceable player to keep you from over drafting a need position that would be ideal. I think the cap situation for most intelligent teams should improve over the next few years as the rookie pay scale is under control now. Theoretically, this should allow more money in the future to fill needs through FA.

And I agree with you as well, we have to be better at drafting. We're not bad but we could be quite a bit better

beerlover
11-23-2013, 08:44 PM
That is a demonstrably false statement. Only about a million comments were made on Mario alone with qualifiers such as "for a #1 pick." Good and bad statements are made like OD being a great TE especially for a 4th round pick. People compare performance to draft place constantly.

in regards to really good or bad maybe, but you are highlighting the minority (media darlings) not the majority of players (avg. Joe's) in the league. the only critical time is draft day itself, when teams have to act/stand by big boards carved out in war rooms from scouting department/coaching staff & ownership, once selected who gives a rip, at least I don't! As matter of fact once they're off the board & not Texans I don't give a rip :texan: