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JCTexan
11-11-2013, 11:44 PM
With the Bucs & Jags winning this week, the Houston Texans now have the longest current losing streak in the NFL at 7 games. FML. :gun:

Trap_Star
11-11-2013, 11:52 PM
all that hard work to only be 1 game infront of the Jags and Bucs at this point.

fml

chicagotexan2
11-11-2013, 11:54 PM
With the Bucs & Jags winning this week, the Houston Texans now have the longest current losing streak in the NFL at 7 games. FML. :gun:

He'll yeah!!! This seven game losing streak goes great with the five straight games with a pick six. Now if only bullock can get back his consistency of missing field goals that would be an awesome hat trick!!

Shaft75
11-12-2013, 12:22 AM
He'll yeah!!! This seven game losing streak goes great with the five straight games with a pick six. Now if only bullock can get back his consistency of missing field goals that would be an awesome hat trick!!

I think we should officially count the blocked FG. It was another missed opportunity while he was on the field.

One thing's for sure, it's going to be super easy to blame 2013 on Schaub and Bullock. I really can't see that anyone else blew their opportunities and royally screwed their team like those two dip****s.

The streak ends this weekend though. I think we'll beat the Raiders at home.

MEGA SWATT
11-12-2013, 12:57 AM
I think we should officially count the blocked FG. It was another missed opportunity while he was on the field.

One thing's for sure, it's going to be super easy to blame 2013 on Schaub and Bullock. I really can't see that anyone else blew their opportunities and royally screwed their team like those two dip****s.

The streak ends this weekend though. I think we'll beat the Raiders at home.

Who stood by MS for all those games letting him derail the team, the season and his job?

Norg
11-12-2013, 01:05 AM
uhh didn't the lions go 0-16 and I don't know what they did in the pre season or the season before that leading up to 0-16

MEGA SWATT
11-12-2013, 01:10 AM
uhh didn't the lions go 0-16 and I don't know what they did in the pre season or the season before that leading up to 0-16

losing streak THIS season......................NOT all time.

Shaft75
11-12-2013, 01:15 AM
Who stood by MS for all those games letting him derail the team, the season and his job?

Yeah, I think the blame is spread across the board(excluding JJ and Andre). It's a hell of a lot easier to blame tweedle dee and tweedle dumbazz on this one.

Even though "it all starts with him", the head coach did have us in some games before the aforementioned duo took us out of them.

qqert
11-12-2013, 05:54 AM
i blame the fans, and you all for not seeing this coming.
i mean, i had pompoms rady coz yall said we were going to the supabowl?

HJam72
11-12-2013, 08:37 AM
Kubiak is on the bubble; he needs to come back and show something, but he did make the call to start Keenum and sit Schaub, albeit just a little late.

Fire Marciano in the offseason.

Fire Bulluck in the offseason.

J-Jo is on the bubble; so is K-Jax.

Fire Reed. Fire him again. Leave a message firing him a third time, just to make sure.

Keep Phillips, but don't make him the HC. It's not that he would suck, he's just not the one.

Cut Newton.

Get ready to replace Tate.

Foster is on the bubble starting with next training camp. It's not lack of effort, but if he can't stay healthy, he's gone. We might need SEVERAL RBs.

Replace Wade Smith before he has arthritis.

Replace Antonio Smith in the offseason. It's time.

Consider spending a 1st rounder on a MLB. We need 2 Cushings, so one of them will be healthy.

Get an OLB to replace Reed. It shouldn't be hard; oh, btw, cut Reed.

Give Swearinger a raise (not really, but he deserves it) & put Manning on notice.

McCain is on notice as well. In fact, just cut McCain. I'm tired of that crap. Give his spot to Harris and put him on notice too.

On the back-burner: I sure wish we had a huge NT...

Side-note: Somebody get Duane B. hooked on Monster drinks or something. Dude needs his energy back.

Pollardized
11-12-2013, 08:57 AM
Kubiak is on the bubble; he needs to come back and show something, but he did make the call to start Keenum and sit Schaub, albeit just a little late.

Fire Marciano in the offseason.

Fire Bulluck in the offseason.

J-Jo is on the bubble; so is K-Jax.

Fire Reed. Fire him again. Leave a message firing him a third time, just to make sure.

Keep Phillips, but don't make him the HC. It's not that he would suck, he's just not the one.

Cut Newton.

Get ready to replace Tate.

Foster is on the bubble starting with next training camp. It's not lack of effort, but if he can't stay healthy, he's gone. We might need SEVERAL RBs.

Replace Wade Smith before he has arthritis.

Replace Antonio Smith in the offseason. It's time.

Consider spending a 1st rounder on a MLB. We need 2 Cushings, so one of them will be healthy.

Get an OLB to replace Reed. It shouldn't be hard; oh, btw, cut Reed.

Give Swearinger a raise (not really, but he deserves it) & put Manning on notice.

McCain is on notice as well. In fact, just cut McCain. I'm tired of that crap. Give his spot to Harris and put him on notice too.

On the back-burner: I sure wish we had a huge NT...

Side-note: Somebody get Duane B. hooked on Monster drinks or something. Dude needs his energy back.

None of that matters if they continue to run Kubiak's tired old out of date offense. It just doesn't work any more. The NFL is a passing league now, not a running league like he has always preached the Texans to be.

Uncle Rico
11-12-2013, 09:47 AM
Longest losing streak in team history if I'm not mistaken.

Silver lining? Good draft to suck. Should get quality players if Smith doesn't wet the bed.

EllisUnit
11-12-2013, 10:12 AM
None of that matters if they continue to run Kubiak's tired old out of date offense. It just doesn't work any more. The NFL is a passing league now, not a running league like he has always preached the Texans to be.

I dont agree with that, we can still be a running team, if we run the ball and eat up 6-7 minutes off the clock on every drive, then the other team cant score that much and our defense is well rested and the odds of stopping the opposing Offense are way better.

2 seasons ago we were running it down teams throats, hell even last year we were, this season foster hasnt really been healthy. I dont buy into the you cant run because its a passing league BS.

Hookem Horns
11-12-2013, 10:33 AM
Kubiak is on the bubble; he needs to come back and show something, but he did make the call to start Keenum and sit Schaub, albeit just a little late.



Something he has yet to show in the 7 plus years he has been here?

HJam72
11-12-2013, 10:40 AM
Something he has yet to show in the 7 plus years he has been here?

He's gotten to 11-5 & 12-4 with Matt freaking Schaub. He's even won a playoff game with TJ Yates. I don't just love everything about Kubiak, but this is just one season, blown mostly by a QB who just lost it. I'm not going to cry a river if Kubiak gets replaced, but I don't think I'd pull the trigger just yet.

Thorn
11-12-2013, 11:15 AM
He'll yeah!!! This seven game losing streak goes great with the five straight games with a pick six. Now if only bullock can get back his consistency of missing field goals that would be an awesome hat trick!!

:lol:

Good one.

Bulls on Parade
11-12-2013, 11:27 AM
Longest losing streak in team history if I'm not mistaken.

Silver lining? Good draft to suck. Should get quality players if Smith doesn't wet the bed.
I wouldn't be shocked if the Texans lose these final seven games and finish the 2013 season 2-14 with 14 losses in a row. That will likely net us the first overall pick in the 2014 draft. I must admit, that wouldn't be a bad thing since our playoff hopes already faded weeks ago.

These next two home games against the Raiders and Jaguars will tell the story. The Texans will be heavily favored to win both games. The Texans are already -7 against the Raiders and will probably be -13.5 or so against the Jaguars, but if we end up losing these two games that will make us the new frontrunners for the top pick.

We currently own the 4th overall pick at 2-7. Looks like 2005 all over again, Mr. Bob McNair. I never expected this 2013 season to fall apart so fast. I don't want to blame anybody. Coaching staff or players. It is what it is. Injuries in particular derailed us.

But it's no big deal. We can reload in a deep draft class and get some healthy bodies back (Arian Foster and Brian Cushing). And bingo, we're a 14-2 team in 2014. We can become the first team in NFL history to go from 2-14 to 14-2 in one year. Assuming we can lose out the rest of the way like I kind of expect.

Bulls on Parade
11-12-2013, 11:30 AM
He's gotten to 11-5 & 12-4 with Matt freaking Schaub. He's even won a playoff game with TJ Yates. I don't just love everything about Kubiak, but this is just one season, blown mostly by a QB who just lost it. I'm not going to cry a river if Kubiak gets replaced, but I don't think I'd pull the trigger just yet.
Agreed. We're going to go 2-14 this year. Brace yourself guys. But Gary Kubiak isn't going to be fired. Most of us will actually be happy having that first overall pick in the 2014 draft. A good draft can replenish a lot of our weaknesses as a team. I expect to go 14-2 in 2014 and make a run at the Super Bowl. We just need to stay healthy. Knock on wood.

Double Barrel
11-12-2013, 11:34 AM
Longest losing streak in team history if I'm not mistaken.

yep. Even the worst season (so far) - 2005 at 2-14 - never had a 7 game losing streak.

Uncle Rico
11-12-2013, 11:38 AM
I wouldn't be shocked if the Texans lose these final seven games and finish the 2013 season 2-14 with 14 losses in a row. That will likely net us the first overall pick in the 2014 draft. I must admit, that wouldn't be a bad thing since our playoff hopes already faded weeks ago.

These next two home games against the Raiders and Jaguars will tell the story. The Texans will be heavily favored to win both games. The Texans are already -7 against the Raiders and will probably be -13.5 or so against the Jaguars, but if we end up losing these two games that will make us the new frontrunners for the top pick.

We currently own the 4th overall pick at 2-7. Looks like 2005 all over again, Mr. Bob McNair. I never expected this 2013 season to fall apart so fast. I don't want to blame anybody. Coaching staff or players. It is what it is. Injuries in particular derailed us.

But it's no big deal. We can reload in a deep draft class and get some healthy bodies back (Arian Foster and Brian Cushing). And bingo, we're a 14-2 team in 2014. We can become the first team in NFL history to go from 2-14 to 14-2 in one year. Assuming we can lose out the rest of the way like I kind of expect.


Exactly!!! Just what the Chiefs did this year. Who knows a regime change might even happen, but the bottom line is that this team has plenty of talent currently, with a smart draft and we bounce back next year. Misfire and We're looking at some cruel and unusual punishment for the foreseeable future.

Vinny
11-12-2013, 11:56 AM
at least we've doubled the hated Jags win total...we have that going for us.

Uncle Rico
11-12-2013, 12:04 PM
at least we've doubled the hated Jags win total...we have that going for us.

LMAO, I'm not getting any work done as it is, but now I sneeze laughed coke zero all over the place. Thanks!

Bulls on Parade
11-12-2013, 12:16 PM
LMAO, I'm not getting any work done as it is, but now I sneeze laughed coke zero all over the place. Thanks!
Somebody texted me that the Texans should rename Matt Schaub as the starting quarterback because Case Keenum has played well. That will assure us of landing the first overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. I replied that it wasn't necessary. We still have Randy Bullock to tank games for us. That's why we didn't release him yet. The guy is going to serve a purpose in a positive way.

It's going to be kind of comical, but in a cruel way, when the Jaguars beat us twice this year because Josh Scobee is one of the best and most reliable kickers in the game. And our guy is an overweight Texas A&M Aggie who is just leeching a good paycheck in the NFL. Man, I wish we could go back in that draft and select Greg Zuerlein, aka Legatron, instead of Randy Bullock.

Uncle Rico
11-12-2013, 12:38 PM
so Somebody texted me that the Texans should rename Matt Schaub as the starting quarterback because Case Keenum has played well. That will assure us of landing the first overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. I replied that it wasn't necessary. We still have Randy Bullock to tank games for us. That's why we didn't release him yet. The guy is going to serve a purpose in a positive way.

It's going to be kind of comical, but in a cruel way, when the Jaguars beat us twice this year because Josh Scobee is one of the best and most reliable kickers in the game. And our guy is an overweight Texas A&M Aggie who is just leeching a good paycheck in the NFL. Man, I wish we could go back in that draft and select Greg Zuerlein, aka Legatron, instead of Randy Bullock.

No way last thing you need is Schaub to find his mojo again and actually win a game or two, let the youngster take his lumps he isn't winning any games yet so we are par for the course.

I hate using picks on kickers, such a waste really. I wish Hitman Hartman never got hurt. That guy was pretty good.

Showtime100
11-12-2013, 02:19 PM
The streak ends this weekend though. I think we'll beat the Raiders at home.

Not if the Raiders defense use that new-fangled blitz thingy the Texans can't seem to solve. :roast:

MEGA SWATT
11-12-2013, 02:27 PM
at least we've doubled the hated Jags win total...we have that going for us.

LOL:bender:

TheIronDuke
11-12-2013, 02:30 PM
so

No way last thing you need is Schaub to find his mojo again and actually win a game or two, let the youngster take his lumps he isn't winning any games yet so we are par for the course.

I hate using picks on kickers, such a waste really. I wish Hitman Hartman never got hurt. That guy was pretty good.

Agreed, Hartmann was good, but he was a punter so I don't know what impact he'd have had unless you're missing him for his booming kickoffs.

VTexan
11-13-2013, 02:34 AM
Kubiak is on the bubble; he needs to come back and show something, but he did make the call to start Keenum and sit Schaub, albeit just a little late.
Kubiak is on the bubble; he needs to come back and show something

Kubiak is on the bubble


http://i.imgur.com/1Bd3hgP.gif

The Pencil Neck
11-14-2013, 12:34 AM
Something he has yet to show in the 7 plus years he has been here?

I think it's a little too easy for some people to forget the teams of 2011 and 2012 or the offense of 2009/2010 and early 2011.

I don't look back on Kubiak's tenure and see 7 years of suckage.

This year reminds me a lot of 2010, actually. Losing some close games we had chances to win.

Grams
11-14-2013, 07:10 AM
I think it's a little too easy for some people to forget the teams of 2011 and 2012 or the offense of 2009/2010 and early 2011.

I don't look back on Kubiak's tenure and see 7 years of suckage.

This year reminds me a lot of 2010, actually. Losing some close games we had chances to win.

Because we don't know how to finish or play a full 60 minute game.
We either get a great first half or a great second half - never a full game.
Never have with Gary and Wade.

Thorn
11-14-2013, 08:00 AM
We could just as easily be 0-9 as we could 5-4 right now. But I would have NEVER believed anyone at the start of the season if they told me we'd be 2-7 after nine games.

Vinny
11-14-2013, 08:10 AM
Raiders haven't won a road game this season so I expect this 7 game slide to end....not that this will help the season in any way.

Runner
11-14-2013, 08:40 AM
Raiders haven't won a road game this season so I expect this 7 game slide to end....not that this will help the season in any way.

Last week's game versus the Cardinals was the first one this season where I thought the Texans had a high likelihood of winning. That don't turn out very well; I have the same confidence in beating the Raiders though.

That makes me nervous.

eriadoc
11-14-2013, 08:52 AM
I think it's a little too easy for some people to forget the teams of 2011 and 2012 or the offense of 2009/2010 and early 2011.

I don't look back on Kubiak's tenure and see 7 years of suckage.

I think it's a little too easy for people to forget the records of the 2008, 2009, and 2010 seasons. Even if you discount 2006, 2010 was a 6-10 season. The team went 12-4 last year. That is GREAT. So with those 12 wins, Kubiak's career record sits at 61-59. That's what we call mediocrity, folks. 2011 was an outlier. The man has an EIGHT YEAR track record and all some people want to do is focus on the two good years. That's fine if you think it's an upward trend, but I think it's pretty clear those seasons were an outlier. 8-8 is right about their speed.

Anyone care to make a graph?

Runner
11-14-2013, 09:00 AM
I think it's a little too easy for people to forget the records of the 2008, 2009, and 2010 seasons. Even if you discount 2006, 2010 was a 6-10 season. The team went 12-4 last year. That is GREAT. So with those 12 wins, Kubiak's career record sits at 61-59. That's what we call mediocrity, folks. 2011 was an outlier. The man has an EIGHT YEAR track record and all some people want to do is focus on the two good years. That's fine if you think it's an upward trend, but I think it's pretty clear those seasons were an outlier. 8-8 is right about their speed.

Anyone care to make a graph?

I did make a graph. The last four years look kind of like someone giving the viewer the finger.

Vinny
11-14-2013, 09:08 AM
Last week's game versus the Cardinals was the first one this season where I thought the Texans had a high likelihood of winning. That don't turn out very well; I have the same confidence in beating the Raiders though.

That makes me nervous.Weren't the Cards favored? I picked the Cards to win in our Pick 'em contest because of their defense...Cards better than most of our fans were thinking. Raiders? Not so much. I find it hard to see a scenario where the Raiders beat this Texans team.

Blake
11-14-2013, 09:24 AM
Raiders haven't won a road game this season so I expect this 7 game slide to end....not that this will help the season in any way.

Not so fast my friend. Texans dont have a great history against dual threat or athletic QBs. Kap, Wilson, Newton, Luck, Ponder.

I wouldnt expect anything if I were you.

Runner
11-14-2013, 09:26 AM
Weren't the Cards favored? I picked the Cards to win in our Pick 'em contest because of their defense...Cards better than most of our fans were thinking. Raiders? Not so much. I find it hard to see a scenario where the Raiders beat this Texans team.

The Cards probably were favored, I just had a feeling. That is why you never see me make predictions on the prediction threads.

The streak will end sometime; it may as well be this Sunday.

Vinny
11-14-2013, 09:33 AM
Not so fast my friend. Texans dont have a great history against dual threat or athletic QBs. Kap, Wilson, Newton, Luck, Ponder.

I wouldnt expect anything if I were you.Pryor has a knee injury. Hell, their defense gave up 7TD passes a couple of weeks ago to Nick Foles. Even when Pryor is healthy the Raiders struggle...PLUS defensively they are just awful. I don't know how you guys thought we would go to Arizona and handle their defense and I don't know what you guys are looking at when you look at the Raiders. As bad as we are, we are a much better team than the Raiders.

Uncle Rico
11-14-2013, 09:43 AM
Damn shame to suck this bad when a 9-7 team can secure the 2nd wildcard in a shaky AFC this year.

Blake
11-14-2013, 09:51 AM
Pryor has a knee injury. Hell, their defense gave up 7TD passes a couple of weeks ago to Nick Foles. Even when Pryor is healthy the Raiders struggle...PLUS defensively they are just awful. I don't know how you guys thought we would go to Arizona and handle their defense and I don't know what you guys are looking at when you look at the Raiders. As bad as we are, we are a much better team than the Raiders.

First of all I predicted a loss (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2244177&postcount=5) to the Cards. Hell, I only predicted 14 points for the Texans. If Pryor plays then I will pick the Raiders to win. Not sure how you can fault that as the Texans have found exotic ways to lose games that they should have won.

EllisUnit
11-14-2013, 11:10 AM
I wouldn't be shocked if the Texans lose these final seven games and finish the 2013 season 2-14 with 14 losses in a row. That will likely net us the first overall pick in the 2014 draft. I must admit, that wouldn't be a bad thing since our playoff hopes already faded weeks ago.

These next two home games against the Raiders and Jaguars will tell the story. The Texans will be heavily favored to win both games. The Texans are already -7 against the Raiders and will probably be -13.5 or so against the Jaguars, but if we end up losing these two games that will make us the new frontrunners for the top pick.

We currently own the 4th overall pick at 2-7. Looks like 2005 all over again, Mr. Bob McNair. I never expected this 2013 season to fall apart so fast. I don't want to blame anybody. Coaching staff or players. It is what it is. Injuries in particular derailed us.

But it's no big deal. We can reload in a deep draft class and get some healthy bodies back (Arian Foster and Brian Cushing). And bingo, we're a 14-2 team in 2014. We can become the first team in NFL history to go from 2-14 to 14-2 in one year. Assuming we can lose out the rest of the way like I kind of expect.

There is no way in hell we lose all the remaining games, we arent that damn bad....

CretorFrigg
11-14-2013, 12:35 PM
There is no way in hell we lose all the remaining games, we arent that damn bad....

Don't underestimate how inept our FO and coaching staff is. They're starting to lose the players. They don't believe in them anymore. We have players that don't believe their coach is going to lead them to victory. Ed Reed spoke his mind, and though the rest of their Texans go about their business, I'm sure many of them agree with that sentiment.

We have DeAndre Hopkins jerking it, a joke of a RT, no legitimate ILBs as a 3-4 defense, and Shiloh Keo is our starting safety. Oh, and Arian Foster's out too. I bet if we look back at this team 10 years from now, we will barely remember 9 of the defensive starters on this team. We've got a ton of jokers on that side of the ball, aside from JJ Watt. Swearinger's playing well, but he's still just a rookie. Let's just face it. Rick Smith has created a team of scrubs. We replace elite / good players with average / mediocre players. That is not a formula for success.

Do you expect Brian Cushing to come back 100% next season? I hope he does, but I'm not optimistic. He's been through way too many major injuries to be playing at the same level again. This team is a mess, and someone's got to take responsibility for it.

TheIronDuke
11-14-2013, 12:43 PM
Don't underestimate how inept our FO and coaching staff is. They're starting to lose the players. They don't believe in them anymore. We have players that don't believe their coach is going to lead them to victory. Ed Reed spoke his mind, and though the rest of their Texans go about their business, I'm sure many of them agree with that sentiment.

We have DeAndre Hopkins jerking it, a joke of a RT, no legitimate ILBs as a 3-4 defense, and Shiloh Keo is our starting safety. Oh, and Arian Foster's out too. I bet if we look back at this team 10 years from now, we will barely remember 9 of the defensive starters on this team. We've got a ton of jokers on that side of the ball, aside from JJ Watt. Swearinger's playing well, but he's still just a rookie. Let's just face it. Rick Smith has created a team of scrubs. We replace elite / good players with average / mediocre players. That is not a formula for success.

Do you expect Brian Cushing to come back 100% next season? I hope he does, but I'm not optimistic. He's been through way too many major injuries to be playing at the same level again. This team is a mess, and someone's got to take responsibility for it.

So, uhhh, come out to watch your fighting 22 on Sunday folks and don't forget to wear your Liberty Blue!! :swatter:

The Pencil Neck
11-14-2013, 02:13 PM
Because we don't know how to finish or play a full 60 minute game.
We either get a great first half or a great second half - never a full game.
Never have with Gary and Wade.

That's just utter and complete BS.

In 2011 and 2012... with Gary and Wade together, this team was 22-10 even with a lot of injuries to key players.

The Pencil Neck
11-14-2013, 02:17 PM
I think it's a little too easy for people to forget the records of the 2008, 2009, and 2010 seasons. Even if you discount 2006, 2010 was a 6-10 season. The team went 12-4 last year. That is GREAT. So with those 12 wins, Kubiak's career record sits at 61-59. That's what we call mediocrity, folks. 2011 was an outlier. The man has an EIGHT YEAR track record and all some people want to do is focus on the two good years. That's fine if you think it's an upward trend, but I think it's pretty clear those seasons were an outlier. 8-8 is right about their speed.

Anyone care to make a graph?

6-8-8-9-6-10-12-?

That's an upward trend even if the last number is low.

HJam72
11-14-2013, 09:26 PM
I like these numbers: :)

6-8-8-9-6-10-12-6-10-13-16-19 :fans:

Runner
11-15-2013, 02:25 PM
...
Even if you discount 2006, 2010 was a 6-10 season.
...
Anyone care to make a graph?

6-8-8-9-6-10-12-?

That's an upward trend even if the last number is low.

Ok. I did the graph and put in trend lines. I assumed five wins this year, which gives the Texans the benefit of the doubt that they will finish stronger than they have played so far. That resulted is an increase of about 1.5 games over eight years. It's upward, but it does start from a 6 win season. The trend line started at 7.5 and finished at 9 wins.

If the Texans only win three games this season, the trend line is virtually flat just below 8 wins

============

I don't like dropping data points, but I did another chart in case someone calls "foul" about counting Kubiak's first year, since he took over a bad team. I dropped the first 6 win season and plotted the next seven years. This made the trend worse.

When I took the last seven years of the team and assumed five wins this season, the trend line was absolutely flat just above 8 wins.

Fun stuff.

infantrycak
11-15-2013, 03:09 PM
I don't like dropping data points, but I did another chart in case someone calls "foul" about counting Kubiak's first year, since he took over a bad team. I dropped the first 6 win season and plotted the next seven years. This made the trend worse.

When I took the last seven years of the team and assumed five wins this season, the trend line was absolutely flat just above 8 wins.

Fun stuff.

Unintentionally you have skewed it. The starting point and everything since should be included. This is the result for a linear regression.

Results:
Total Numbers : 9 (data points)
Slope(b) : .533333
y-Intercept(a) : 5.2
Regression Equation(y): 5.2 + .5333x (x = number of seasons)

So the slope indicates an overall improvement rate of .5333 games per season.

If calculated prior to this season the slope and overall improvement rate would have been 1.012 or an improvement of 1.012 games per season. Tje equation for this would have been 4.083 + 1.012x.

Runner
11-15-2013, 03:18 PM
Unintentionally you have skewed it. The starting point and everything since should be included. This is the result for a linear regression.

Results:
Total Numbers : 9
Slope(b) : .533333
y-Intercept(a) : 5.2
Regression Equation(y): 5.2 + .5333x (x = number of seasons)

So the slope indicates an overall improvement rate of .5333 games per season.

Any skewing is unintentional as you said. My college sadistics are rusty to say the least. I used Excel to do a linear trend line.

Your numbers show 9 data points - what are they and what did you project for this season's record? Are you considering Capers 2-14 season the starting point?

infantrycak
11-15-2013, 03:30 PM
Your numbers show 9 data points - what are they and what did you project for this season's record? Are you considering Capers 2-14 season the starting point?

Yes, the 2-14 season is the year 0 data point. You have to set the starting point from which improvement is to be judged otherwise you are making year 1 a no improvement (or decline) year no matter the result. So the 9 points are year 0 and 8 seasons of results (and I used your 5 win scenario for year 8). Best scenario of them winning out, the slope would be .8.

Runner
11-15-2013, 03:40 PM
Yes, the 2-14 season is the year 0 data point. You have to set the starting point from which improvement is to be judged otherwise you are making year 1 a no improvement (or decline) year no matter the result. So the 9 points are year 0 and 8 seasons of results (and I used your 5 win scenario for year 8). Best scenario of them winning out, the slope would be .8.

I don't think we are answering the same question. I'm answering the question "how has Kubiak improved since he's been here". You are answering the question "how have the Texans done since Kubiak had been here". The inclusion of the two win season radically changes the slope of the line.

However, that is a two edged sword. Your .533 slope starting at a two win season projects something like 8 wins next year. My lesser slope starting at six wins projects more like 9.

I'm just glad this discussion isn't being graded with a red pen...

infantrycak
11-15-2013, 03:48 PM
I don't think we are answering the same question. I'm answering the question "how has Kubiak improved since he's been here". You are answering the question "how have the Texans done since Kubiak had been here". The inclusion of the two win season radically changes the slope of the line.

Well it isn't the same question but your question is not what you suggest. I am answering how the Texans' results improved under Kubiak. You are answering how the Texans' results improved under Kubiak since his 1st season. They didn't get to 6 wins without Kubiak so his 1st season should be included as a result data point rather than ansthe starting point. Neither formulation measures "how Kubiak improved" for either time period.

Runner
11-15-2013, 04:02 PM
Well it isn't the same question but your question is not what you suggest. I am answering how the Texans' results improved under Kubiak. You are answering how the Texans' results improved under Kubiak since his 1st season. They didn't get to 6 wins without Kubiak so his 1st season should be included as a result data point rather than ansthe starting point. Neither formulation measures "how Kubiak improved" for either time period.

Correct. I am comparing Kubiak to the base he set his first year. If he won 6 games each of his first three years (or 8 or 10 each year) I'd say his performance was flat over those three years. I wouldn't say it had an upward trend because Capers had a 2 win season.

If he won 8 then 7 then 6 I wouldn't say his performance had a positive slope due to the previous 2 win season either. That is obviously misleading.

infantrycak
11-15-2013, 04:09 PM
Correct. I am comparing Kubiak to the base he set his first year. If he won 6 games each of his first three years (or 8 or 10 each year) I'd say his performance was flat over those three years. I wouldn't say it had an upward trend because Capers had a 2 win season.

If he won 8 then 7 then 6 I wouldn't say his performance had a positive slope due to the previous 2 win season either. That is obviously misleading.

No it is proper mathematical analysis. Now you are intentionally skewing. He did not take over a 6 win team. The baseline is what he took on, not the result after a year's effort. Its that simple.

After the 2006 season, if someone asked, you said the team won 4 more games, not none.

Look, linear regression is a very simple tool and it is going to flatten out to a best fit. Non-linear regression would yield a more form fitting curve. You will still include the 2 win season as the start to do it properly.

1 parameter non-linear: y = ln(x + 1522.620766)
2 parameter non-linear: y=2.455916484 x1/2 + 2.987163122

Runner
11-15-2013, 04:23 PM
No it is proper mathematical analysis. Now you are intentionally skewing. He did not take over a 6 win team. The baseline is what he took on, not the result after a year's effort. Its that simple.

After the 2006 season, if someone asked, you said the team won 4 more games, not none.

After the 2006 season, if someone asked how many games Kubiak's team won, I'd say 6, not +4.

I am clearly stating that I am comparing Kubiak's progress as a coach from his first season onward. Whether you like the question or not, I'm not hiding/skewing anything.

If I am comparing him to Capers, I don't have to do the math to do that. He's much better.

The Pencil Neck
11-15-2013, 04:56 PM
After the 2006 season, if someone asked how many games Kubiak's team won, I'd say 6, not +4.

I am clearly stating that I am comparing Kubiak's progress as a coach from his first season onward. Whether you like the question or not, I'm not hiding/skewing anything.

If I am comparing him to Capers, I don't have to do the math to do that. He's much better.

The ORIGINAL post by EriaDoc made a statement implying that we haven't seen an upward trend since Kubiak took over.

Even if we throw out the previous regime's 2-14 season, there is still an upward trend. Almost any method you use to place a line through those numbers is going to have an upward slope.

infantrycak
11-15-2013, 04:56 PM
After the 2006 season, if someone asked how many games Kubiak's team won, I'd say 6, not +4.

I am clearly stating that I am comparing Kubiak's progress as a coach from his first season onward. Whether you like the question or not, I'm not hiding/skewing anything.

If I am comparing him to Capers, I don't have to do the math to do that. He's much better.

Putting aside the math, you don't have a data source for progress of a coach so you have a logic fallacy to begin your process. W's are a measure of the team in toto. By your suggested standard Bill Belicheck has made no "progress as a coach" during his tenure in New England.

Anyway, I started off basically agreeing with you (or thought I was) that the team's progress has been mediocre.

clutch
11-15-2013, 05:25 PM
Well heres hopeing it continues... 2-14 please..

Runner
11-15-2013, 05:48 PM
The ORIGINAL post by EriaDoc made a statement implying that we haven't seen an upward trend since Kubiak took over.

Even if we throw out the previous regime's 2-14 season, there is still an upward trend. Almost any method you use to place a line through those numbers is going to have an upward slope.

Correct through last season for certain. Through this season too, barring an extremely unlikely two or three win season. I thought my five win assumption was low, but the change from a 2-7 start to s 3-4 to finish is a pretty big change

Runner
11-15-2013, 05:57 PM
By your suggested standard Bill Belicheck has made no "progress as a coach" during his tenure in New England.



First, is not my suggested standard. Someone asked for a graph. I was bored and made one.

Second, it is interesting you brought that up. I thought that was the exact point people would jump on when I made my original post. I thought to myself at the time, that'll be easy to answer. I'll just ask our resident stats expert, cak, to figure out how to weight 8 vs 12 win averages as it pertains to the NFL season. You usually can pull that esoteric stuff up in about five minutes. True story.

infantrycak
11-15-2013, 06:58 PM
Second, it is interesting you brought that up. I thought that was the exact point people would jump on when I made my original post. I thought to myself at the time, that'll be easy to answer. I'll just ask our resident stats expert, cak, to figure out how to weight 8 vs 12 win averages as it pertains to the NFL season. You usually can pull that esoteric stuff up in about five minutes. True story.

I suspect you will find a bell curve distribution on season win totals. Wouldn't be that hard to do a weighting system but I'm not that motivated on the subject.

Runner
11-15-2013, 07:14 PM
I suspect you will find a bell curve distribution on season win totals. Wouldn't be that hard to do a weighting system but I'm not that motivated on the subject.

Me neither. My boring afternoon is over and I just had a great Martini.

Playoffs
11-15-2013, 07:59 PM
Dave Zangaro ‏@DZangaro
Today is the two-month anniversary of the #Texans last win. Then, they were 2-0. Cushing, Daniels, Manning were healthy. Hopes were high.http://secondwivescafe.com/smilies/sigh.gif

mootini
11-18-2013, 01:26 PM
Your losing streak ends Sunday! trust me! :kitten::kitten::kitten:

Double Barrel
11-18-2013, 02:02 PM
Someone just tole me that Kubiak is now 61-61 as a head coach.

Folks can use advanced math formulas all they want, but an 8 year coach with a .500 record screams mediocrity to me.

TheIronDuke
11-18-2013, 02:12 PM
Someone just tole me that Kubiak is now 61-61 as a head coach.

Folks can use advanced math formulas all they want, but an 8 year coach with a .500 record screams mediocrity to me.

How about his 2-2 playoff record?! :kubepalm:

Double Barrel
11-18-2013, 02:17 PM
How about his 2-2 playoff record?! :kubepalm:

PERFECT .500

:truck:

Trap_Star
11-18-2013, 02:23 PM
At first I was like, lol at the bucs and that dumpster fire they have going with Schiano...

Then I was like, lol we're looking at them right next to us..


































:(

mootini
11-18-2013, 03:12 PM
Kubiak is just like Jack Del Rio! Same flat line and false hopes!


Someone just tole me that Kubiak is now 61-61 as a head coach.

Folks can use advanced math formulas all they want, but an 8 year coach with a .500 record screams mediocrity to me.

HOU-TEX
11-18-2013, 03:16 PM
Someone just tole me that Kubiak is now 61-61 as a head coach.

Folks can use advanced math formulas all they want, but an 8 year coach with a .500 record screams mediocrity to me.

Going gangsta on us, DB? :spit: