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CloakNNNdagger
09-24-2013, 09:29 PM
I came across this very pertinent article that reflects many of our concerns about the low numbers of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ.


On the Texans throwing into the end zone
June, 27, 2013

By Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com


Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus Fantasy caught my eye with this tweet on Wednesday:


Mike Clay @MikeClayNFL

Fun Fact - Over the last five years, 2,015 (or 53%) of NFL passing TDs were scored when the receiver caught the ball in the endzone.
2:46 PM - 26 Jun 2013



It made me think immediately of the Houston Texans, who consistently failed to throw the ball into the end zone often enough last season.

In their playoff victory over Cincinnati, they were crazily conservative when it came to trying to get into the end zone.


I asked Katharine Sharp and Jason Starrett of ESPN Stats & Information to check Clayís stat (heís right) and to run some more numbers for me.

Since 2008, just 44.7 percent of Houstonís touchdown passes have been caught in the end zone. Thatís the third-lowest number in the NFL over that span, ahead of only Arizona (39.3 percent) and Tampa Bay (41.8 percent).

Over the past five years, hereís the percentage of Texans touchdown passes thrown into the end zone:

2008: 61.9
2009: 44.8
2010: 62.5
2011: 45.0
2012: 31.8

Last season, when Houston made me crazy with its conservative play against the Bengals in that playoff win, just one of the Texans' seven red-zone throws was into the end zone.

The Panthers caught 26.3 percent of their touchdown passes in the end zone in 2012, the low mark in the league. The Cardinals posted a 27.3 percent mark. The Texans, a team far better than Carolina or Arizona, were third-worst, at 31.8.

At least they did some work to offset it defensively. They allowed the fifth-lowest percentage of TD passes thrown in the end zone at 37.9.

And it's not as if the Texans were a complete passing dud. They had 22 touchdown passes, just under the league average (23.7). They got a touchdown on 56.1 percent of their trips into the red zone, not a great number but still 12th in the NFL. There was a big gap, however, between them and the league's best offenses -- the Packers, Saints and Patriots all got touchdowns at least 68.1 percent of the time they got inside the 20. Boost last year's Texans to that level, they would have had seven more touchdowns.

I hope coach Gary Kubiak has spent part of the offseason reconsidering the teamís strategy about accepting whatís given to it in the red zone, where check-downs are going to be readily available but plays that produce seven points are far more important.

Sure, there are catch-and-run opportunities in games. But especially once an offense is in the red zone, defenses are playing to keep people in front of them. It's passive, and even a bit naive, to think you can have a great deal of success getting touchdowns instead of settling for field goals by throwing underneath when you're at close range.

First-round draft pick DeAndre Hopkins, a receiver who comes into the league looking NFL-ready, could help the Texans threaten the end zone better and more often.

As for the rest of the division:

Our three other teams were also below average in terms of touchdown passes thrown into the end zone, with the Colts at 43.5, Jaguars at 45.0 and the Titans at 47.1.

CHECK OUT THIS ARTICLE'S TABLE OF ALL NFL TEAMS STATS (http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/51126/on-the-texans-throwing-into-the-end-zone)

thunderkyss
09-24-2013, 09:36 PM
I came across this very pertinent article that reflects many of our concerns about the low numbers of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ.



I don't know how pertinent that article is when we're top 10 scoring at least over the last two years & we won 10 & 12 games over that time period. Makes you think that throwing into the end zone in itself is not conducive to winning football games.... & that's what it's all about right? Winning football games?

SchaubApologist
09-24-2013, 09:40 PM
I don't know how pertinent that article is when we're top 10 scoring at least over the last two years & we won 10 & 12 games over that time period. Makes you think that throwing into the end zone in itself is not conducive to winning football games.... & that's what it's all about right? Winning football games?

:kubepalm:

thunderkyss
09-24-2013, 10:39 PM
Can't think of a better place to post this... but I'm rewatching the game right now & Matt Schaub looks sharp with 1:00 left in the first half. He's getting rid of the ball quick, very decisive & very accurate. The ball is put right where the receiver needs it, they're not scooping it off the ground, or bending over backwards. One in particular to DeAndre on the left sideline, Matt throws the ball before Hop makes his move to get to the outside. & it's on target.

Again, there is no doubt in my mind that Matt Schaub will hit his numbers. 4000 yards, twenty-some TDs (maybe even 30) 12-16 INTs.... I'd like to think that will translate into 11 or so wins, hopefully the division.

He's looking as good as he ever has & with these receivers, he's going to look better before it's all said & done.

Now is the time to get on the bandwagon. We're going to the Super Bowl.

HJam72
09-24-2013, 10:48 PM
Can't think of a better place to post this... but I'm rewatching the game right now & Matt Schaub looks sharp with 1:00 left in the first half. He's getting rid of the ball quick, very decisive & very accurate. The ball is put right where the receiver needs it, they're not scooping it off the ground, or bending over backwards. One in particular to DeAndre on the left sideline, Matt throws the ball before Hop makes his move to get to the outside. & it's on target.

Again, there is no doubt in my mind that Matt Schaub will hit his numbers. 4000 yards, twenty-some TDs (maybe even 30) 12-16 INTs.... I'd like to think that will translate into 11 or so wins, hopefully the division.

He's looking as good as he ever has & with these receivers, he's going to look better before it's all said & done.

Now is the time to get on the bandwagon. We're going to the Super Bowl.

....and then there was Peyton Manning. :kubepalm: :wadepalm:

SacHawk
09-24-2013, 11:11 PM
Can't think of a better place to post this... but I'm rewatching the game right now & Matt Schaub looks sharp with 1:00 left in the first half. He's getting rid of the ball quick, very decisive & very accurate. The ball is put right where the receiver needs it, they're not scooping it off the ground, or bending over backwards. One in particular to DeAndre on the left sideline, Matt throws the ball before Hop makes his move to get to the outside. & it's on target.

Again, there is no doubt in my mind that Matt Schaub will hit his numbers. 4000 yards, twenty-some TDs (maybe even 30) 12-16 INTs.... I'd like to think that will translate into 11 or so wins, hopefully the division.

He's looking as good as he ever has & with these receivers, he's going to look better before it's all said & done.

Now is the time to get on the bandwagon. We're going to the Super Bowl.

Houston VS Seattle was my pre season SB pick. We may get a preview on Sunday.

You guys are definitely better than you have been the first two weeks. Shocked that you lost to Baltimore.

thunderkyss
09-24-2013, 11:17 PM
. Shocked that you lost to Baltimore.

I'm not shocked that we lost so much as the way we lost. 17-9 isn't insurmountable for this offense, neither is 24-9. But they got us where they wanted us (same place we want them) & they took it to us, exactly what we did to them last year.

infantrycak
09-24-2013, 11:34 PM
Four years above the Texans' purported average and one under looked wrong. Sure enough someone messed up on the overall calculation. Using their yearly percentages means 57 TDs in the endzone out of 116 total so 49.1%.

For perspective, at the league average the Texans would have had 61.5 TDs in the end zone so 4.5 more over the five year time period - not even one per year.

Corrosion
09-25-2013, 03:39 AM
Sumb!tch musta read TexansTalk cause I said the same thing on Sunday ..... :corrosion:



Find an OC who will call for routes that go beyond the marker on 3rd down & will take shots "Into" the endzone while in the redzone. This is really a big deal as a penalty in the endzone puts you at the 1 ..... with a 1st down.



I think you are misunderstanding my thoughts here.


Im talking about throwing the ball "INTO" the endzone .... Not simply throwing the ball or the average length of route / pass combinations.

Having the target IN THE Endzone gives you a theoretical advantage in that you have either a completion , an incompletion or a penalty with the rules heavily favoring the offensive player. Two of those three possible outcomes are good for the offense ....

They didn't take advantage of that Vs the Ravens and the result is easy to see , settling for three FG's.

:specnatz:

Lucky
09-25-2013, 06:04 AM
Can't think of a better place to post this... but I'm rewatching the game right now & Matt Schaub looks sharp with 1:00 left in the first half. He's getting rid of the ball quick, very decisive & very accurate.
Yes, Schaub was very accurate. He hit Daryl Smith in stride on that TD pass. And he meant to throw the ball 6 ft over Andre Johnson's head in the redzone on the opening drive.

A post like this is why I don't know whether to take you seriously, or if you are just trolling. That was a horrible performance by Schaub. Everyone, including Schaub himself, admits that.

thunderkyss
09-25-2013, 06:37 AM
Yes, Schaub was very accurate. He hit Daryl Smith in stride on that TD pass. And he meant to throw the ball 6 ft over Andre Johnson's head in the redzone on the opening drive.

A post like this is why I don't know whether to take you seriously, or if you are just trolling. That was a horrible performance by Schaub. Everyone, including Schaub himself, admits that.

I specified with less than a minute to go in the half. On that drive, Schaub looked sharp.

Corrosion
09-25-2013, 06:41 AM
I specified with less than a minute to go in the half. On that drive, Schaub looked sharp.

I think a lot of that had to do with the Ravens playing a prevent , keeping everything in front of them .... and not putting a whole lot of heat on Schaub in the pocket.

He can do his part in those situations ...

CloakNNNdagger
09-25-2013, 06:56 AM
I specified with less than a minute to go in the half. On that drive, Schaub looked sharp.

I think a lot of that had to do with the Ravens playing a prevent , keeping everything in front of them .... and not putting a whole lot of heat on Schaub in the pocket.

He can do his part in those situations ...

http://troglopundit.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/automotivator_blind-squirrel.jpg

thunderkyss
09-25-2013, 06:57 AM
I think a lot of that had to do with the Ravens playing a prevent , keeping everything in front of them .... and not putting a whole lot of heat on Schaub in the pocket.

He can do his part in those situations ...

What really impressed me was his accuracy. I read in another thread (& maybe that's where I should have put this, because that's what I really want to discuss) that because of problems with his foot, throwing off his back foot, he's not as accurate as he wants to be & the ball is going places he's not intending.

The 20 yarder he threw to Hop, in that time frame, was practically on a rope.

He looks lighter, healthier..... I'm not going to say more athletic or mobile, but he's looking physically like a younger, better Matt Schaub than what we saw last season.

The only real question about Schaub, is how long can he hold this up?

CloakNNNdagger
09-25-2013, 07:29 AM
What really impressed me was his accuracy. I read in another thread (& maybe that's where I should have put this, because that's what I really want to discuss) that because of problems with his foot, throwing off his back foot, he's not as accurate as he wants to be & the ball is going places he's not intending.

The 20 yarder he threw to Hop, in that time frame, was practically on a rope.

He looks lighter, healthier..... I'm not going to say more athletic or mobile, but he's looking physically like a younger, better Matt Schaub than what we saw last season.

The only real question about Schaub, is how long can he hold this up?




Schaub never played at any less than 240 at Virginia. At the Combine, 243. With the Texans up to this year ~243. This year at 235.

That weight loss was not aimed at making him more athletic or mobile per se. It is the typical strong recommendation made to any patient with ongoing post Lisfranc problems........in attempt to lessen stresses transferred to the foot.

Corrosion
09-25-2013, 07:43 AM
Schaub never played at any less than 240 at Virginia. At the Combine, 243. With the Texans up to this year ~243. This year at 235.

That weight loss was not aimed at making him more athletic or mobile per se. It is the typical strong recommendation made to any patient with ongoing post Lisfranc problems........in attempt to lessen stresses transferred to the foot.

And with weight loss comes a loss of strength .... however fractional it might be , any loss of arm strength or core strength is going to have an effect on a guy who has a questionable arm to begin with. That small difference may be enough to tip the scales in the NFL ....

thunderkyss
09-25-2013, 12:13 PM
And with weight loss comes a loss of strength .... however fractional it might be , any loss of arm strength or core strength is going to have an effect on a guy who has a questionable arm to begin with. That small difference may be enough to tip the scales in the NFL ....

If y'all are right, his number will be significantly lower than his norm.

If I'm right, he'll hit his numbers like clockwork.

If Dalemurphy is right (& I hope he is) he's going to eclipse his numbers.

CloakNNNdagger
09-25-2013, 12:27 PM
If y'all are right, his number will be significantly lower than his norm.

If I'm right, he'll hit his numbers like clockwork.

If Dalemurphy is right (& I hope he is) he's going to eclipse his numbers.

If I remember correctly, he got his numbers last year and............:kitten:

DX-TEX
09-25-2013, 12:30 PM
Numbers schnumbers! Schaub sucks, plain and simple

thunderkyss
09-25-2013, 12:41 PM
If I remember correctly, he got his numbers last year and............:kitten:

Exactly.

He looked bad in the final 4-6 games... Is he going to make 10 games this year? or 16? Or 3?

I wouldn't doubt that his foot is an issue, but he had a typical Matt Schaub day against the Patriots, then he went on to stink it up in the Pro Bowl. If his foot is giving him the problems you're suggesting, I don't think he does those. I also think the Texans would have addressed the QB position differently this past offseason.

CloakNNNdagger
09-25-2013, 01:09 PM
Exactly.

He looked bad in the final 4-6 games... Is he going to make 10 games this year? or 16? Or 3?

I wouldn't doubt that his foot is an issue, but he had a typical Matt Schaub day against the Patriots, then he went on to stink it up in the Pro Bowl. If his foot is giving him the problems you're suggesting, I don't think he does those. I also think the Texans would have addressed the QB position differently this past offseason.

It is quite a bit easier to dink and dunk to get numbers with foot issues. As to the question you pose, how many WTF decisions have you not lived through with this organization? They have a long history of making decisions especially on injured players, solely based on hope and prayer. I guess a "genetic" inbreeding characteristic related to the man that chose to put RGIII back into a game where it was obvious to everyone that he would have better benefited by a wheelchair........then bring him back too early this season without completing adequate rehab when it is obvious to everyone that he looks like a person that just got out of his wheelchair. As they say, history is bound to repeat itself, if you do not make an effort to learn from it.........and the Texans tend to be slow learners. His foot is an issue......a big issue that effect all aspects of his play. His foot has had its rest during the offseason and preseason for the most part. Now that he's back to full-time, expect it to respond poorly to its increasing stresses......most likely more quickly and more noticeably than last season. Let's just agree to keep watching.

DX-TEX
09-25-2013, 01:13 PM
It is quite a bit easier to dink and dunk to get numbers with foot issues. As to the question you pose, how many WTF decisions have you not lived through with this organization? They have a long history of making decisions especially on injured players, solely based on hope and prayer. I guess a "genetic" inbreeding characteristic related to the man that chose to put RGIII back into a game where it was obvious to everyone that he would have better benefited by a wheelchair........then bring him back too early this season without completing adequate rehab when it is obvious to everyone that he looks like a person that just got out of his wheelchair. As they say, history is bound to repeat itself, if you do not make an effort to learn from it.........and the Texans tend to be slow learners. His foot is an issue......a big issue that effect all aspects of his play. His foot has had its rest during the offseason and preseason for the most part. Now that he's back to full-time, expect it to respond poorly to its increasing stresses......most likely more quickly and more noticeably than last season. Let's just agree to keep watching.

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view2/3425989/trainwreck-o.gif

Cant help but to watch!

AMartin56
09-25-2013, 02:28 PM
4,000 yards isnt what it used to be.

And I'd much rather have us take some shots downfield from time to time. All this take what the defense gives us junk is getting old. GOOD offenses take what they want.

And as the pick sixes are proving all these passes close to the line of scrimmage are at best low risk low reward and at worst high risk low reward.

I'm not saying air it out every series. But how about at least once or twice a game to give the defense something to think about? As it is defenses only have to defend about 15 yards of depth against us.

thunderkyss
09-25-2013, 04:33 PM
4,000 yards isnt what it used to be.


In & of itself... no it's not what it used to be. But the list of QBs who've thrown for 4000 yards in 3 of the last 4 years is still a short list & good company for the QB of our team. If he stays healthy, he'll do it again & that list of QBs who've thrown for 4000 yards in 4 of the last 5 years will get even shorter.


And I'd much rather have us take some shots downfield from time to time. All this take what the defense gives us junk is getting old. GOOD offenses take what they want.


I agree. I also don't think we should wait until we're down three scores to do it. It should be part of the game plan to set the tone for the game, make sure the defense knows to expect it.


And as the pick sixes are proving all these passes close to the line of scrimmage are at best low risk low reward and at worst high risk low reward.

I'm not saying air it out every series. But how about at least once or twice a game to give the defense something to think about? As it is defenses only have to defend about 15 yards of depth against us.

From what I'm seeing.... it's coming.

Lucky
09-25-2013, 06:27 PM
I specified with less than a minute to go in the half. On that drive, Schaub looked sharp.
Wait, you're basing your assertion that Schaub looks better than ever and the Texans are going to the Super Bowl on 4 passes against a prevent defense at the end of a half? You must of had to really reach for those cherries.

http://gardenplotter.com/rospo/blog/uploaded_images/CherryPicking-728746.jpg

EllisUnit
09-25-2013, 07:09 PM
I think a lot of that had to do with the Ravens playing a prevent , keeping everything in front of them .... and not putting a whole lot of heat on Schaub in the pocket.

He can do his part in those situations ...

exactly :kubepalm:

ObsiWan
09-25-2013, 07:10 PM
Schaub's presser right after the surgery (or maybe just before)

http://assets.amuniversal.com/456ac610015c01311c47001dd8b71c47 (http://www.gocomics.com/tankmcnamara/2013/09/23#mutable_1005736)


Schaub discussing his surgery options with the crack Texans' medical staff...
http://assets.amuniversal.com/46843e60015c01311c47001dd8b71c47 (http://www.gocomics.com/tankmcnamara/2013/09/24#mutable_1006108)


Schaub offering words of encouragement to T.J. Yates during his time on IR.

http://assets.amuniversal.com/478c41d0015c01311c47001dd8b71c47 (http://www.gocomics.com/tankmcnamara/2013/09/25#mutable_1006477)

CloakNNNdagger
09-25-2013, 08:49 PM
Schaub's presser right after the surgery (or maybe just before)

http://assets.amuniversal.com/456ac610015c01311c47001dd8b71c47 (http://www.gocomics.com/tankmcnamara/2013/09/23#mutable_1005736)


Schaub discussing his surgery options with the crack Texans' medical staff...
http://assets.amuniversal.com/46843e60015c01311c47001dd8b71c47 (http://www.gocomics.com/tankmcnamara/2013/09/24#mutable_1006108)


Schaub offering words of encouragement to T.J. Yates during his time on IR.

http://assets.amuniversal.com/478c41d0015c01311c47001dd8b71c47 (http://www.gocomics.com/tankmcnamara/2013/09/25#mutable_1006477)

Priceless! Just priceless! MSR. Someone get him for me!

thunderkyss
09-25-2013, 09:19 PM
Priceless! Just priceless! MSR. Someone get him for me!

Done