View Full Version : Every 2013 NFL Division Predicted Using TSV's Predictive Wins Model

09-08-2013, 11:06 AM
Every 2013 NFL Division Predicted Using TSV's Predictive Wins Model (http://www.thesidelineview.com/columns/nfl/every-2013-nfl-division-predicted-using-tsvs-predictive-wins-model)

After covering his Elitics Model in full detail at the MIT Analytics Sloan conference (http://www.scribd.com/doc/132357637/Elitics-FootballAnalyticsResearchPaper-docx), The Sideline View's Tyler Oberly has taken his work to another level. Based upon his original research, Oberly found six fundamental statistics that have stood out for every NFL dynasty in the modern Super Bowl era:

Team offense averaged over 21 points per game
Team defense limited opponents to 16 points per game or less
Quarterback throw 15 interceptions or less per season
Defense allowed no more than 25 touchdowns per season
Defense forced over 30 turnovers per season
Offense had over 2,000 rushing yards and 20 rushing TDs per season

In fact, 76 percent of all Super Bowl winners attained at least four of these six fundamental stats on the way to clinching the Lombardi trophy...

To verify this further, Oberly also ran a study to find if these fundamental statistics had a direct correlation to regular season performance (see below). For example, if a team exhibited four of the six Dynasty Elements, they would average 11.2 wins per season.
Utilizing this information with his Elitic Model positional ratings, Oberly was able to develop a Predictive Wins Model to forecast who will be at the top and bottom of each division this NFL season.

See where your team stacks up...read more: http://www.thesidelineview.com/columns/nfl/every-2013-nfl-division-predicted-using-tsvs-predictive-wins-model

09-08-2013, 12:01 PM
According to this guy a Redskin-Texan super bowl is possible. That would be an interesting game. The media would really be playing up the hype with the coaches histories.

09-08-2013, 06:42 PM
Every 2013 NFL Division Predicted Using TSV's Predictive Wins Model (http://www.thesidelineview.com/columns/nfl/every-2013-nfl-division-predicted-using-tsvs-predictive-wins-model)

read more: http://www.thesidelineview.com/columns/nfl/every-2013-nfl-division-predicted-using-tsvs-predictive-wins-model

Great stuff! Thanks, MSR!

The only problem I may have with this is that I'm not sure how relevant the dynasty stats from the 60's, 70's, 80's, and even 90's are to determining who's going to win in todays NFL.