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Seegara
07-22-2013, 07:34 PM
It has been so obvious for so many years, you wonder why it's never investigated. I'm talking about somebody's ability to bribe officials in favor of the Colts. That's basically why I'm picking them to win.

thunderkyss
07-22-2013, 08:24 PM
It has been so obvious for so many years, you wonder why it's never investigated. I'm talking about somebody's ability to bribe officials in favor of the Colts. That's basically why I'm picking them to win.

I knew there had to be some kind of twist.

It's really hard for me to "predict" what the Texans are going to do. Every year it's something else. I think I know who we are then we come out & nothing makes sense. All year (2012) I kept wondering when the offense was going to get it's stuff together & all of a sudden, we're among the best offensive teams in the league. It never looked that way to me as I watched them from week to week.

You know there was a time when I thought the Houston Texans could hang 30 on anyone, & do it efficiently. One or two stops from the defense & we'd win most games. Back then, we didn't have a defense you could rely on to hold the other team to a field goal. Now we have a menacing defense & our offense got all timid & reserved.

I don't know what to think about the Colts. They didn't play well as a team last season, but they did enough to stay in enough games (8) to pull out a W in the 4th qtr. In 2013 we're going to see if they were really that good, or just lucky.

The Titans. I spend too much time on this board. There's so much hate for Bud Adams that I can't get an objective opinion of the team. We always underrate them, even when they consistently finished better than we did in the division.

The Jags..... I don't expect much from them.

We're playing the AFC & NFC West. So we'll play the Patriots & Ravens while the Colts play the Dolphins & Bengals. It's going to be interesting.

Allstar
07-22-2013, 09:04 PM
Texans are easily the most talented team in the Division. They should win. Andrew Luck's development factor is the only reason Indy has a puncher's chance, but I just don't see it.

TexansFTW
07-22-2013, 09:38 PM
Don't forget that last year the Colts gave up more points than they scored. That success is not repeatable with numbers like that. You can say the QB had a lot to do with that, but I say more than anything it was just Luck.

See what I did there?

Seegara
07-22-2013, 09:56 PM
Don't forget that last year the Colts gave up more points than they scored. That success is not repeatable with numbers like that. You can say the QB had a lot to do with that, but I say more than anything it was just Luck.

See what I did there?
Winning the close ones is either a matter of wisely utilizing what talent you have, or luck, or getting some outside help.

Uncle Rico
07-22-2013, 10:09 PM
Wont even be close.

Norg
07-23-2013, 12:03 AM
THE COLTS won the divison like 5 years in a row then lost it 1 year (titans) then busted out another 4 years in a row

so I wont be happy unless the Texans win the divison 6 years in a row :P and 2 super bowl rings in these next 4 years ... :kitten:

IDEXAN
07-23-2013, 09:21 AM
The strength of the league division by division changes so quickly - it just seems like yesterday that everybody would joke about how weak the NFC West was and now it might be the best division in the NFL, certainly one of the best.
The Texans have had their way with the AFC South for 2 or 3 years now, but that will change and probably change more rapidly than we realize. I expect us to win the division again this year but I'm taking nothing for granted. I think we will lose a couple of division games and finish with about 10 wins, not 12 or 13 as some dreamers believe.

Norg
07-23-2013, 09:36 AM
The strength of the league division by division changes so quickly - it just seems like yesterday that everybody would joke about how weak the NFC West was and now it might be the best division in the NFL, certainly one of the best.
The Texans have had their way with the AFC South for 2 or 3 years now, but that will change and probably change more rapidly than we realize. I expect us to win the division again this year but I'm taking nothing for granted. I think we will lose a couple of division games and finish with about 10 wins, not 12 or 13 as some dreamers believe.


so u think its going to be the same has last year

Denver and Pats with the NUmber 1 and 2 seeds

Rey
07-23-2013, 09:41 AM
I picked the Texans because I think our defense will be better. I don't have a lot of faith in Schaub overall, but I don't think he completely sucks either. So with that, I think we'll have a good balance. If Schaub surprises me and does things I don't expect (positively) then I think it's a wrap and there isn't a team close to us.

But I'm not expecting that, so I give a slim margin to the Texans.

thunderkyss
07-23-2013, 10:42 AM
The strength of the league division by division changes so quickly - it just seems like yesterday that everybody would joke about how weak the NFC West was and now it might be the best division in the NFL, certainly one of the best.
The Texans have had their way with the AFC South for 2 or 3 years now, but that will change and probably change more rapidly than we realize. I expect us to win the division again this year but I'm taking nothing for granted. I think we will lose a couple of division games and finish with about 10 wins, not 12 or 13 as some dreamers believe.

Both Seattle & San Francisco has been building a stout defense, their offenses are finally catching on. So you could kinda sorta see it coming.

I'd love for the AFC South to be more competitive than it has been, but we're not seeing any evidence that it might be. This division used to be Colts offense vs Jags & Titans defense. Those top ten defenses of the Jags & Titans are a thing of the past & the Colts offense, well... I just want to see them do it again.

They could all be top 10 in 2013 for all I know, but odds are against it.

ATXtexanfan
07-23-2013, 12:18 PM
Hard not to take texans

Showtime100
07-23-2013, 12:31 PM
Huh. This board is fairly drug-free. I just looked at the results and the team at the bottom has 2 votes. At the current tally that translates to only about 4% that post on this board have a drug problem. ;)

Playoffs
07-23-2013, 12:32 PM
Hmmm......

http://smileys.on-my-web.com/repository/Thinking/thinking-023.GIF

http://www.sherv.net/cm/emo/simpsons/homer-thinking-smiley-emoticon.gif

http://www.picgifs.com/smileys/smileys-and-emoticons/thinking/smileys-thinking-705257.gif

still thinking.....

Thorn
07-23-2013, 12:42 PM
Huh. This board is fairly drug-free. I just looked at the results and the team at the bottom has 2 votes. At the current tally that translates to only about 4% that post on this board have a drug problem. ;)

:lol:

It's hard to imagine anyone picking any team except for the Texans. There is only one thing that will keep the Texans from winning the division this year, and that is a LOT of injuries to the starters. Other than that, the division win is a cake walk.

Now then, getting anywhere in the playoffs is a whole 'nother conversation.

Corrosion
07-23-2013, 04:23 PM
I think 4-2 within the division for the Texans is the low end of expectations.

Going 4-2 or better within the division doesn't mean you win it but those teams will likely perform to the same standards against the rest of the league as they do against the Texans.

Really hard for me to believe the Jaq's , Tits or Dolts have what it takes to dethrone the Texans this year.


The Jaq's just suck , probably the worst QB play in the NFL.

The Tits .... they got better this offseason but Im not sold on their QB not to mention historically being one of the least disciplined teams in the league , I see them a distant third in the division.


The Dolts .... Yeah Luck is pretty good but I cant see that "team" playing as well as they did last year in what was an emotional season for them. They got worse defensively , didn't really think that was possible .... but they found a way.


The Texans may have gotten better both offensively and defensively - Hopkins looks to be a major upgrade over Walter & Greg Jones should be an upgrade over Casey at FB. Defensively you add a half of famer in Ed Reed .... They may be better on ST too as they added Lechler and Bullock who might be able to hit one from beyond 45 yards once in a while.

They aren't without concerns , most notably at the RG/RT spots & OLB with Barwin gone .... but having Cushing back is an improvement in itself.
We teams always have to be concerned with the health of the starting QB .... no matter what his name is , that name being Schaub makes me a bit more concerned than fans of some other teams.

Despite the questions , the Texans are clearly the most talented team in the division (and that's without any mention of JJ Watt).

NastyNate
07-23-2013, 08:06 PM
It has been so obvious for so many years, you wonder why it's never investigated. I'm talking about somebody's ability to bribe officials in favor of the Colts. That's basically why I'm picking them to win.

Statistics would completely refute your theory. Of the few handful of teams that have had a negative point differential and a winning record, every one of them has averaged 2 more losses the following year. Throw in the offensive coordinator jumping ship and losing Freeney, and you have an eventual submarine on your hands. Colts go 9-7 and miss the playoffs.

Texan_Bill
07-23-2013, 09:36 PM
If y'all didn't answer the Texans, y'all are jacked up!!!


Although, the OP does bring up an interesting point about the Colts getting some, "somewhat calls"...

BTW, who in the EFF voted for the Jags?? I haven't seen Mootini on the boards for a while...

For those of you newer members, "Mootini" is a great contributor to TexansTalk that happens to be a Jags fan.

TREAT HIM WITH RESPECT!!!

*EDIT*
Treat him with respect, right up until becomes an ass!! ;)

BullBlitz
07-23-2013, 09:38 PM
Statistics would completely refute your theory. Of the few handful of teams that have had a negative point differential and a winning record, every one of them has averaged 2 more losses the following year. Throw in the offensive coordinator jumping ship and losing Freeney, and you have an eventual submarine on your hands. Colts go 9-7 and miss the playoffs.

I hadn't heard of this stat until recently. Do you know how often this has happened, or when it has happened most recently except for last year's Colts?

Goldensilence
07-23-2013, 09:51 PM
Texans by far are the most talented team on both sides of the ball.

Getting Cush back is going to be huge, while I am not couting on Reed to be an impact he could very well be if healthy. Defensively... Dear lord you think of the season Watt had and you think, he's going to come in the season healthy...we could see something really special next year. Newcomer on defense i am totally stoked for... Swearinger. This kid isis going to be great in that third safety/cover corner spot Quinm manned.

Offensively, if Hopkins gives the team a legit second outside target i expect the offense to have the ability to open up unlike previous years. If we get improved right side of the line play even bigger things.

As a qb, love Luck, but can that team really overachieve two years in a row?

Other two aren't really worth mentioning.

SAMURAITEXAN
07-23-2013, 10:22 PM
Texans' D, please introduce yourselves again to Andrew with big hits.

Looking forward to your cooperation JJ, Ninja and others.

badboy
07-23-2013, 10:38 PM
Texans are building a dynasty. If Hopkins is real deal and we can resolve question marks at RT/ ILB/SS and NT and we should, this could be a remarkable season. Our depth is going to be very good.

BullBlitz
07-23-2013, 11:00 PM
Texans are building a dynasty. If Hopkins is real deal and we can resolve question marks at RT/ ILB/SS and NT and we should, this could be a remarkable season. Our depth is going to be very good.

A dynasty? There's nothing like the preseason. :doot:

badboy
07-23-2013, 11:17 PM
A dynasty? There's nothing like the preseason. :doot:So you are totally ignoring the last two seasons?

Surely you are more up to date than your statement? There has been very good drafts, several pro bowlers, Foster/AJ & Watts extremely good seasons and other things such as the increase in depth that indicates a dynasty type team is being formed.

Vance87
07-23-2013, 11:21 PM
OK, who were the trolls who voted for the Bags...:bat:

Scooter
07-24-2013, 12:56 AM
i think it's fairly obvious, even without being biased.

let's just get the jags out now, they look almost void of talent.

the titans beefed up their offensive line, but unless CJ2YPC has an adrian peterson type season, it doesnt mean anything. the titan's quarterback play is pretty bad and they had a league worst 29.4 points allowed defensively ... 8-8 would be a successful season for them but expect closer to a repeat 6-10.

the colts win 2 games in 2011 and then jump to 9 in 2012 following some very unlikely breaks. they lost their coach, had the 21st ranked defense, and are still in a state of flux with a lot of roster movement. i cant see so many bounces going their way this year even if andrew luck performs well. a repeat 9 wins would be pushing it, i see 7 possibly stretching to 8 wins for the colts.

the texans are consistant with the same coach, coordinators, and core personnel. anchors were replaced with significant upgrades - walter with hopkins, casey with jones, and barwin with mercilus. there are still concerns such as the right side of the offensive line and the middle of the defense, but talent and depth abounds on both sides of the ball. a good year would be 14 wins, a bad would be 10 ... assuming health of course.

BullBlitz
07-24-2013, 06:26 AM
So you are totally ignoring the last two seasons?

Surely you are more up to date than your statement? There has been very good drafts, several pro bowlers, Foster/AJ & Watts extremely good seasons and other things such as the increase in depth that indicates a dynasty type team is being formed.

I'm quite up to date, thanks. I think that the term "dynasty" means different things to different people. Regardless, I like seeing the high expectations.

HOU-TEX
07-24-2013, 08:40 AM
The Astros by a large margin

thunderkyss
07-24-2013, 11:38 AM
So you are totally ignoring the last two seasons?



I agree with BullBlitz. Most people wait until their second SuperBowl in a decade to start talking "Dynasty"

We haven't seen the inside of an AFC Championship game...... I think dynasty talk is a bit premature right now.

The Pencil Neck
07-24-2013, 11:52 AM
I hadn't heard of this stat until recently. Do you know how often this has happened, or when it has happened most recently except for last year's Colts?

I went through the records and here's what I came up with...

In the past 10 years, there's been no team that went 11-5 with a negative point differential. The best record you can find with a winning record and a negative point differential is 9-7.

2004 Jags -- 9-7 to 12-4
2004 Seahawks -- 9-7 to 13-3
2005 Vikings -- 9-7 to 6-10
2006 Seahawks -- 9-7 to 10-6
2008 Cowboys -- 9-7 to 11-5
2011 Giants -- 9-7 to 9-7

As you can see, there is one case where the record got worse and one case where the record remained the same but 4 cases where the record improved.

BUT. That's starting from 9-7.

BUT! Why did the Colts have such a bad point differential? Because they got CRUSHED by the Patriots, Jets and Bears... mostly the Patriots.

TexansFTW
07-24-2013, 11:52 AM
Statistics would completely refute your theory. Of the few handful of teams that have had a negative point differential and a winning record, every one of them has averaged 2 more losses the following year. Throw in the offensive coordinator jumping ship and losing Freeney, and you have an eventual submarine on your hands. Colts go 9-7 and miss the playoffs.

I agree with everything you said except your bottom line. No way Colts exceed 8-8. I got bets with a lot of friends then will be 8-8 or worse, but I do agree with playoffs missed. The Steelers are gonna take back their playoff spot this year, and maybe even the Chargers.

TexansFTW
07-24-2013, 12:03 PM
I agree with BullBlitz. Most people wait until their second SuperBowl in a decade to start talking "Dynasty"

We haven't seen the inside of an AFC Championship game...... I think dynasty talk is a bit premature right now.

Implications of a dynasty being built isn't saying "we have a dynasty". He said we are building one. Obviously it's not a dynasty yet, but it is positively BUILDING in the right direction.

In that regards, I can definitely agree. I like the way we are building. The results of this season will be the answer to it being built though.

Playoffs
07-24-2013, 12:36 PM
http://www.fangraphs.com/not/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Dynasty.jpg

eriadoc
07-24-2013, 01:44 PM
Voted Texans. It's the obvious choice. So since that was so boring, I'll make the case for the Texans to lose it, just for kicks.

DEFENSE

Cushing doesn't come back 100% and as strong as everyone assumes. Injuries like that take time to recover, and he is just a step behind. Beside him, Sharpton/Reed/whoever they try at ILB is JAG, at best. Mercilus doesn't take that big step forward that so many seem to be counting on. The LB corps ends up no better than last year.

Ed Reed never suits up for the Texans, or if he does, he's not good. Brandon Harrison never comes around and everyone recognizes him for the bust he is. Kareem Jackson and JJo keep it together with Manning and Swearinger, but depth is an issue if any injuries pop up.

Antonio and JJ Watt continue their DL tag team on O-lines across the NFL, but the duo of Crick and Mitchell fares no better than the NT position over the last several years, so the defense up the middle continues to suffer. As a result, we get to watch Mitchell, Sharpton, and Ed Reed combine to miss tackles on guys like MJD.

OFFENSE

Matt Schaub picks up where he left off in 2012. That's probably enough to tank the offense, but if the RT/RG combo helps him out like they did last year and they continue to avoid throwing the ball to Foster, it becomes a fairly one dimensional offense. The receiving corps ought to be better, so that will be good enough to beat the Dolphins and Bengals of the world, but not the Packers, 49ers, and Patriots type teams.

badboy
07-24-2013, 03:05 PM
Implications of a dynasty being built isn't saying "we have a dynasty". He said we are building one. Obviously it's not a dynasty yet, but it is positively BUILDING in the right direction.

In that regards, I can definitely agree. I like the way we are building. The results of this season will be the answer to it being built though.This is my point and maybe I should have been clearer. When I look at our roster I see a good balance of run vs pass with a star WR and several good other WRs including Hopkins. Tate if healthy should be great relief for Foster and I am a huge fan of Cierre Wood. DB is unbelievable and Myers is solid with a pretty good backup in Jones. I also think Brooks resolves RG issue & Newton has solid year.

Defense revolves around Cushing imo but if healthy should be better than last year. I think Wade has shown he can piecemeal the safety and ILB spots so adding Swearinger & Reed to a healthy Cush makes me smile.

If you build it (team) they (wins) will come.

NastyNate
07-24-2013, 03:32 PM
I went through the records and here's what I came up with...

In the past 10 years, there's been no team that went 11-5 with a negative point differential. The best record you can find with a winning record and a negative point differential is 9-7.

2004 Jags -- 9-7 to 12-4
2004 Seahawks -- 9-7 to 13-3
2005 Vikings -- 9-7 to 6-10
2006 Seahawks -- 9-7 to 10-6
2008 Cowboys -- 9-7 to 11-5
2011 Giants -- 9-7 to 9-7

As you can see, there is one case where the record got worse and one case where the record remained the same but 4 cases where the record improved.

BUT. That's starting from 9-7.

BUT! Why did the Colts have such a bad point differential? Because they got CRUSHED by the Patriots, Jets and Bears... mostly the Patriots.

I'll have to dig up the article, but I believe it was since the start of the superbowl era until now.

The Pencil Neck
07-24-2013, 03:49 PM
I'll have to dig up the article, but I believe it was since the start of the superbowl era until now.

When I included 8-8 as well as 9-7 records, it shifted a little so that it was negative but even then, if you treat it as an average, it's less than a game in the loss column..

Norg
07-24-2013, 05:02 PM
to me 8-8 and 9-7 season are well in my mind im like dam we are a good team

usually on a 8-8 season its like ur 3 plays away from being a 11-5 Football club

thunderkyss
07-24-2013, 06:19 PM
Voted Texans. It's the obvious choice. So since that was so boring, I'll make the case for the Texans to lose it, just for kicks.

Interesting... everything that can go wrong does.

I think we won 12 games last season because Kubiak wouldn't let the mistakes get away & snowball. But when the guys needed to play loose, when they needed to play fast... they couldn't & we got our butts handed to us vs GB & New England.

I think he lets it all hang out in 2013, & we break all kinds of total offense ratings, Andre, Arian, Matt are all at the top of their respective charts..... but we can't score.

We can't score & we can't stop the other team from scoring. We're back to 2010. We'll win 4 games outright. another 3 on a last minute "what the Hey, heay, hail Mary"

We lose another 7 games by one stinking play, or on a last minute interception, or we fail to convert a 4th down as time runs out, or we give up a last minute goal line stand..... the Texans mental toughness is once again in question & everyone is looking at the guy on the sideline with the hair.

Dec 29th, noon. The Texans square off on the road with the Tennessee Titans. They win this game, they win the division at 9-7, they go into the play-offs as the 4th seed. They lose, they go home.

Then it clicks. Schaub turns into the next Kurt Warner, Andre is Andre, Arian becomes a megastar, Jj Watt reminds everyone he is the best defensive player in the league, Jjo Kj, Reed, Manning, Swearinger, & McCain declare a no fly zone wherever they happen to be.... Kj & Swearinger are literally chopping heads, punishing anyone foolish enough to run anything deeper than 5 yard route.

We tear through the play offs. A juggernaut, blowing teams out 40 to 12 and the like. We win the Super Bowl. & we tear through the NFL the following 2 seasons.

Wolf
07-24-2013, 06:36 PM
I picked the Texans. I know I am probably wrong as usual. I expect the colts to take a step back. Their record,to me, was just an anomaly that I can't do anything but shake my head at and say " They did it.. they did it somehow"

However this season they will be playing tougher opponents (or should be) so we will see

texanhead08
07-24-2013, 06:41 PM
I picked the Colts off just after the way the offense took a nosedive down the stretch and the lack of pass rush from anyone other than Watt. The schedule is much harder this year and the offense needs to really step its game back up this year to give me some confidence in this team again.

It was not good to see us having to throw on 3 and short late last year.

ObsiWan
07-24-2013, 07:39 PM
Interesting... everything that can go wrong does.

I think we won 12 games last season because Kubiak wouldn't let the mistakes get away & snowball. But when the guys needed to play loose, when they needed to play fast... they couldn't & we got our butts handed to us vs GB & New England.

I think he lets it all hang out in 2013, & we break all kinds of total offense ratings, Andre, Arian, Matt are all at the top of their respective charts..... but we can't score.

We can't score & we can't stop the other team from scoring. We're back to 2010. We'll win 4 games outright. another 3 on a last minute "what the Hey, heay, hail Mary"

We lose another 7 games by one stinking play, or on a last minute interception, or we fail to convert a 4th down as time runs out, or we give up a last minute goal line stand..... the Texans mental toughness is once again in question & everyone is looking at the guy on the sideline with the hair.

Dec 29th, noon. The Texans square off on the road with the Tennessee Titans. They win this game, they win the division at 9-7, they go into the play-offs as the 4th seed. They lose, they go home.

Then it clicks. Schaub turns into the next Kurt Warner, Andre is Andre, Arian becomes a megastar, Jj Watt reminds everyone he is the best defensive player in the league, Jjo Kj, Reed, Manning, Swearinger, & McCain declare a no fly zone wherever they happen to be.... Kj & Swearinger are literally chopping heads, punishing anyone foolish enough to run anything deeper than 5 yard route.

We tear through the play offs. A juggernaut, blowing teams out 40 to 12 and the like. We win the Super Bowl. & we tear through the NFL the following 2 seasons.

Oh waiter...
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...and make mine a double.

False Start
07-24-2013, 07:58 PM
Of course, I went with the Texans. I think the Colts will give them a run for their money though.

Texecutioner
07-24-2013, 08:00 PM
Looks like I am one of the three that picked the COlts.

Although it was very tough and I went back and forth on it, and today I sort of think the Texans win it. It was that close for me honestly.

I picked the COlts though because of Luck. I had that much confidence in him coming into the league and he exceeded expectations. I feel like he is one of those QB's that can make his team over achieve and "believe" where they can sneak out a few extra wins on confidence as long as they aren't getting blown out.

The Texans are better all around on paper. However, the Colts are much better at the main position which is the QB position. I like Schaub and defended him a lot last season when a lot of people went way overboard in criticizing him where they acted like he was pure trash. But by the end of the season, Schaub's late season plunge simply could not be ignored. I still think that Schaub could have a pretty good season, but he simply won't ever be that QB that makes huge plays in big games consistently going forward in my eyes while Luck will. And that goes a long way.

And then you have the Kubiak factor where he plays not to lose so much and Gary has shown far to many times that his philosophy will cost this team games, and Gary won't learn from it. He is who he is, and I've accepted that. But it will take a super great QB to over come Gary's inefficiencies, and Schaub simply is not that guy. I could be wrong, and I certainly hope so, but it will take our defense being 2001 Baltimore Ravens like to get a ring with Schaub and Kubes in my opinion based off of what I've seen. I do believe in WATT though!!! Maybe Watt can bring it home.


Right now I'll switch back to the Texans for the division, but I might change it again tomorrow or in a few weeks. It's simply that close of a call.

drs23
07-24-2013, 08:09 PM
http://www.fangraphs.com/not/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Dynasty.jpg

Uhmm...I idonno: BUT, Linda Evans' port nipp is about to put an ear out! Thanks for the stroll down memory lane. :)

drs23
07-24-2013, 08:13 PM
Oh waiter...
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...and make mine a double.

...and I'll have a DOUBLE, double. Rock-n-roll!

Seegara
07-24-2013, 08:28 PM
Looks like I am one of the three that picked the COlts.

Although it was very tough and I went back and forth on it, and today I sort of think the Texans win it. It was that close for me honestly.

I picked the COlts though because of Luck. I had that much confidence in him coming into the league and he exceeded expectations. I feel like he is one of those QB's that can make his team over achieve and "believe" where they can sneak out a few extra wins on confidence as long as they aren't getting blown out.

The Texans are better all around on paper. However, the Colts are much better at the main position which is the QB position. I like Schaub and defended him a lot last season when a lot of people went way overboard in criticizing him where they acted like he was pure trash. But by the end of the season, Schaub's late season plunge simply could not be ignored. I still think that Schaub could have a pretty good season, but he simply won't ever be that QB that makes huge plays in big games consistently going forward in my eyes while Luck will. And that goes a long way.
You have to remember that Schaub's hands were tied. Otherwise he'd have been much more effective.
And then you have the Kubiak factor where he plays not to lose so much and Gary has shown far to many times that his philosophy will cost this team games, and Gary won't learn from it. He is who he is, and I've accepted that. But it will take a super great QB to over come Gary's inefficiencies, and Schaub simply is not that guy. I could be wrong, and I certainly hope so, but it will take our defense being 2001 Baltimore Ravens like to get a ring with Schaub and Kubes in my opinion based off of what I've seen. I do believe in WATT though!!! Maybe Watt can bring it home.
Even a super great QB couldn't save the team if he wasn't allowed to adjust to the defense.
Right now I'll switch back to the Texans for the division, but I might change it again tomorrow or in a few weeks. It's simply that close of a call.
Head coach is undoubtedly the most important position on the team. Ever noticed how the Jaguars collapsed after they got rid of Jack del Rio?

thunderkyss
07-25-2013, 11:44 AM
I picked the COlts though because of Luck. I had that much confidence in him coming into the league and he exceeded expectations.

The Texans are better all around on paper. However, the Colts are much better at the main position which is the QB position.

It's interesting that Luck exceeded expectations, Schaub played below expectation, yet at the end of the day they turned in similar numbers.

DX-TEX
07-25-2013, 12:07 PM
I don't get all the hype for the Colts. I mean every site I hit they talk about how good the Colts are and seem to just ignore the abysmal stats from last year. Luck almost got killed and they didn't do much to strengthen the O line. Do I need to even mention the defense?? They played a last place schedule last year with a TON of emotion (rightfully so) from Paganos issues.

I think they come back to earth this year.

EVOLVIST
07-25-2013, 01:08 PM
It's interesting that Luck exceeded expectations, Schaub played below expectation, yet at the end of the day they turned in similar numbers.

TK...Their numbers are about as similar as the light bulb and the lightning bug.

Matt Schaub 64% completion
Andrew Luck 54% completion

Matt Schaub 90.7 QB rating
Andrew Luck 76.5 QB rating

The only things that are similar is that they threw for roughly the same amount of TDs and yards, but Schaub was better at doing it. Luck can run, and Schaub can't, sure, but Luck doesn't have the 2nd best RB in the league, either.

I don't see that they are that similar. Give me Nick Foles in a Texans uni and then we can talk similarities as both players grow into their own.

thunderkyss
07-25-2013, 02:18 PM
TK...Their numbers are about as similar as the light bulb and the lightning bug.

Matt Schaub 64% completion
Andrew Luck 54% completion

Matt Schaub 90.7 QB rating
Andrew Luck 76.5 QB rating


So in a bad year, Schaub was still better than Luck?

I stand corrected.

BullBlitz
07-25-2013, 05:48 PM
So in a bad year, Schaub was still better than Luck?

I stand corrected.

Yes in a bad year a 31 year old QB was better than a 22 year old rookie. You got it. I stand more interested in 2013.

thunderkyss
07-25-2013, 05:55 PM
Yes in a bad year a 31 year old QB was better than a 22 year old rookie. You got it. I stand more interested in 2013.

That doesn't concern you?

I'd be worried if a 31 year old "never was" played like crap & still played better than the next wunderkind.... but that's just me.

mootini
07-29-2013, 10:17 AM
Bill,

There isn't enough teal kool aid, to pick the Jags to win the division this year! LOL Don't write off the Jags off as no tallent...it's a completely new team/coaching staff. QB is the issue, as most NFL teams have that problem. MJD is looking great! Surprised me! This is his contract year, so look out. The WR corps is the best I've seen in 10 years. I'll be happy with a 6-10 record this season. No expectations, just be competitve and get stronger this year. How's Greg Jones been doing in camp? He is so good...you guys are going to be dangerous in the run game. :kitten::cow:




If y'all didn't answer the Texans, y'all are jacked up!!!


Although, the OP does bring up an interesting point about the Colts getting some, "somewhat calls"...

BTW, who in the EFF voted for the Jags?? I haven't seen Mootini on the boards for a while...

For those of you newer members, "Mootini" is a great contributor to TexansTalk that happens to be a Jags fan.

TREAT HIM WITH RESPECT!!!

*EDIT*
Treat him with respect, right up until becomes an ass!! ;)

mootini
07-29-2013, 10:18 AM
The Colts will take a step back this year, no cream puff schedule too!

BullBlitz
07-30-2013, 09:31 PM
I don't get all the hype for the Colts. I mean every site I hit they talk about how good the Colts are and seem to just ignore the abysmal stats from last year. Luck almost got killed and they didn't do much to strengthen the O line. Do I need to even mention the defense?? They played a last place schedule last year with a TON of emotion (rightfully so) from Paganos issues.

I think they come back to earth this year.

Yeah. People are crazy.

BullBlitz
07-30-2013, 09:32 PM
That doesn't concern you?

I'd be worried if a 31 year old "never was" played like crap & still played better than the next wunderkind.... but that's just me.

Agree.

Uncle Rico
07-30-2013, 10:06 PM
Didn't the ponies win 8 or 9 'close' games last year? Not all of that is skill I would reckon. Definitely not the norm. Im still not sold on that defense either.

The Pencil Neck
07-30-2013, 10:19 PM
Didn't the ponies win 8 or 9 'close' games last year? Not all of that is skill I would reckon. Definitely not the norm. Im still not sold on that defense either.

7 of their 11 victories were by 6 points or less. 9 of their 11 victories were by 7 points or less. They won by an average of just over 6 points.

3 of their 5 losses were by 20 points or more. They only had 1 loss by fewer than 10 points and that was a 5 point loss to the Jaguars. They lost by an average of 19.6 ponts.

On the other hand, 5 of our 12 victories were by less than 10 points.We won by an average of just over 13 points.

All of our losses were over 10 points and we lost by an average of 19.7 points.

So one strange thing we had in common with the Colts was when we lost, we usually lost big-time. But we generally won by a lot more points.

bayoudreamn
07-31-2013, 02:07 AM
Wont even be close.

You said in '82 you could throw a ball 1/4 of a mile?? Obviously, in '82 that wasn't as far as it is now :)

amazing80
07-31-2013, 05:25 AM
So in a bad year, Schaub was still better than Luck?

I stand corrected.

those stats are pointless...........Unless Schaub increases his pedestrian TD:INT ratio, yards and completion percentage is a waste. We will win the division though.

infantrycak
07-31-2013, 07:53 AM
those stats are pointless...........Unless Schaub increases his pedestrian TD:INT ratio, yards and completion percentage is a waste. We will win the division though.

Schaub's ratio is almost 2 to 1. There are only a handful with substantially higher - Manning, Rogers & Big Ben. In addition the Texans go for lots of rushing TDs.

NastyNate
08-14-2013, 07:01 AM
I went through the records and here's what I came up with...

In the past 10 years, there's been no team that went 11-5 with a negative point differential. The best record you can find with a winning record and a negative point differential is 9-7.

2004 Jags -- 9-7 to 12-4
2004 Seahawks -- 9-7 to 13-3
2005 Vikings -- 9-7 to 6-10
2006 Seahawks -- 9-7 to 10-6
2008 Cowboys -- 9-7 to 11-5
2011 Giants -- 9-7 to 9-7

As you can see, there is one case where the record got worse and one case where the record remained the same but 4 cases where the record improved.

BUT. That's starting from 9-7.

BUT! Why did the Colts have such a bad point differential? Because they got CRUSHED by the Patriots, Jets and Bears... mostly the Patriots.


See I knew I misquoted it, but my train of thought was slowly picking up steam. Here is the article from grantland.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9543714/bill-barnwell-breaks-colts-chances-repeating-their-playoff-worthy-record



That gap between their actual win total and the win total we would expect from their Pythagorean expectation — 3.8 wins — is enormous. It's the second-largest difference since 1989, with the largest difference coming from another version of this team. The 1992 Colts went 9-7 while being outscored by 86 points, producing a Pythagorean expectation of 5.0 wins and a difference of four full wins. The next year, they went 4-12. The 2013 Colts won't be that bad.


It's true that teams who greatly outstrip their Pythagorean expectation often decline the following season. There are only six other teams since 1989 that were more than three wins better than their Pythagorean expectation, and they declined by a combined 22 wins the following season, nearly four per team. If we expand the sample out to teams that were two wins better than their Pythagorean expectation, we get 33 teams, of which 21 declined and seven stagnated. In all, those 33 teams declined by an average of 2.4 wins the following year.

thunderkyss
08-14-2013, 09:21 AM
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9543714/bill-barnwell-breaks-colts-chances-repeating-their-playoff-worthy-record
It's true that teams who greatly outstrip their Pythagorean expectation often decline the following season. There are only six other teams since 1989 that were more than three wins better than their Pythagorean expectation, and they declined by a combined 22 wins the following season, nearly four per team.


But how many of those teams had to play Blaine Gabbert & Jake Locker 4 times a year? Heck, they open the season at home versus Oakland & Miami. Then they've still got games against St Louis, Arizona, San Diego, & Kansas City..... That's 10 games they are probably the favorites to win. At the very least, they're pushes.

Point being we better be on our Ps & Qs this year, it'll probably take 11 to 12 games to win the division again.

The Pencil Neck
08-14-2013, 09:55 AM
That was a cool read.

I think the Colts were a bit of an outlier from that perspective.

I think the Colts were a good team that tanked (perhaps on purpose.) So they weren't as bad as that 2-14 mark would indicate so their rebound to 11-5 wasn't as drastic as it appears on the surface.

And like I said, when you look at the point differential, most of that comes from a single game. So the size of that point differential appears to be a bit of an anomaly as well.

The point about their record in close games probably returning to the mean is good, though. So they probably will regress a little bit. Hopefully.

HOU-TEX
08-14-2013, 10:05 AM
Unfortunately, I think the titans will be better this season. I still think we should win the division, but I do see them doing better. The only thing holding them back is the QB position. Their D might be a bit unproven, but they got better along the trenches.

I can't put the FA acquisitions of the Colts together. I'm no GM, but their FA signings were strange.

The Jags should have a decent D again, but their O will still suck

NastyNate
08-14-2013, 10:54 AM
That was a cool read.

I think the Colts were a bit of an outlier from that perspective.

I think the Colts were a good team that tanked (perhaps on purpose.) So they weren't as bad as that 2-14 mark would indicate so their rebound to 11-5 wasn't as drastic as it appears on the surface.

And like I said, when you look at the point differential, most of that comes from a single game. So the size of that point differential appears to be a bit of an anomaly as well.

The point about their record in close games probably returning to the mean is good, though. So they probably will regress a little bit. Hopefully.

I agree for the most part, but if you look at their overall PF/PA even without the 3 blowout losses for a combined 81 points, they align to be a theoretical 7-6 team. They don't win those close games this year against an NFC west division that is even more improved from last year.

Just like with Chicago last year with Takeaways, eventually the numbers average back out. Their first 7 games they had an astronomical amount of takeaways, the last 9 they came back to earth. Just as Indy caught lightning in a bottle at certain points in the season, trends always average back out. I don't see Indy losing more than 7 games, but don't see them winning more than 10 either.

Also interesting was the part about the most interceptable passes being dropped by Andrew Luck's opponents. He forced a ton of throws in that offense. Wonder how the departure of Arians affects their offense with Pagano back and their proclaimed WCO taking place.

I can see them losing to Denver, Seattle, St. Louis, SF, Texans and Cincy. If we sweep both games against them (not likely) that's 7 losses... not unreasonable.

Just one man's opinion.

HJam72
08-14-2013, 11:40 AM
No doubt in my mind the Colts tanked it. They had a better QB and a FAR better team than we did, for instance, when we finished with the same record. That Colts team could have still won at least 6 games, maybe more.

Playoffs
08-14-2013, 11:44 AM
Houston Texans 115 95.04%
Indy Colts 4 3.31%
Jacksonville Jaguars 2 1.65%
Nashville Titans 0 0%


http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m8ak2i7Guu1r4tfm3o1_400.jpg

rpagz3
08-15-2013, 03:23 PM
Houston will take the South.

The Colts are a good football team with Andrew Luck leading the way. I don't think they are an 11 win team. I checked their schedule and they should be able to win at least 8 games. All in all it's the toughest competition for the Texans.

The Titans are boring.

Jags will be competing for that #1 pick.

... AFC South is one of the weakest divisions in football. We should handle it and be atop for the third straight season.

#BullsOnParade

thunderkyss
08-15-2013, 04:23 PM
Jags will be competing for that #32Edited in original post pick.


You're predicting the Jags to be in the Super Bowl?



Is your real name Blaine?

rpagz3
08-15-2013, 10:11 PM
You're predicting the Jags to be in the Super Bowl?



Is your real name Blaine?

fixed.

Showtime100
08-15-2013, 10:22 PM
You're predicting the Jags to be in the Super Bowl?



Is your real name Blaine?

fixed.

I don't see what's fixed. Could I get a ruling here? :tiphat:

(Not to be taken seriously, but I don't see a correction there..lol. Welcome to the board, rpagz3)

DocBar
08-15-2013, 11:02 PM
I voted Arizona. Cuz the guy who started this poll is dumb enough to believe it. :toropalm:

DocBar
08-15-2013, 11:05 PM
Looks like I am one of the three that picked the COlts.

Although it was very tough and I went back and forth on it, and today I sort of think the Texans win it. It was that close for me honestly.

I picked the COlts though because of Luck. I had that much confidence in him coming into the league and he exceeded expectations. I feel like he is one of those QB's that can make his team over achieve and "believe" where they can sneak out a few extra wins on confidence as long as they aren't getting blown out.

The Texans are better all around on paper. However, the Colts are much better at the main position which is the QB position. I like Schaub and defended him a lot last season when a lot of people went way overboard in criticizing him where they acted like he was pure trash. But by the end of the season, Schaub's late season plunge simply could not be ignored. I still think that Schaub could have a pretty good season, but he simply won't ever be that QB that makes huge plays in big games consistently going forward in my eyes while Luck will. And that goes a long way.

And then you have the Kubiak factor where he plays not to lose so much and Gary has shown far to many times that his philosophy will cost this team games, and Gary won't learn from it. He is who he is, and I've accepted that. But it will take a super great QB to over come Gary's inefficiencies, and Schaub simply is not that guy. I could be wrong, and I certainly hope so, but it will take our defense being 2001 Baltimore Ravens like to get a ring with Schaub and Kubes in my opinion based off of what I've seen. I do believe in WATT though!!! Maybe Watt can bring it home.


Right now I'll switch back to the Texans for the division, but I might change it again tomorrow or in a few weeks. It's simply that close of a call.
Captain Woodrow F. Call would shoot you between the eyes. Then hang you. Then burn you. Then drag your carcass to the South Pole to be buried. Shameful use of an avatar. :kitten:

76Texan
08-16-2013, 12:19 AM
Also interesting was the part about the most interceptable passes being dropped by Andrew Luck's opponents. He forced a ton of throws in that offense. Wonder how the departure of Arians affects their offense with Pagano back and their proclaimed WCO taking place.



It would seem safe to assume that Luck will throw fewer than his 18 interceptions from a year ago, but there's a sign that Luck might actually have been lucky a year ago. (I'm the first person to run into that pun, right? Good.) Football Outsiders charters also credited Luck with more dropped interceptions than anybody else in football last season, and the only regular starter who threw interceptable passes on a more frequent basis was Brandon Weeden. So while I would normally point to the second-year interception-rate turnarounds of players like Peyton Manning and Josh Freeman, Luck's interception rate might remain in the high teens again this year.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/adjusted-interceptions-2012

And people thought I was crazy during the draft period for predicting INT in the high teens for Luck (and could be up to 25 - was my prediction.)
Sure, I was wrong, it could have been 30, but that's because he went deep more often that I thought they would let him.

I still don't know how he'll turn out; I'm still not buying Luck as the next HOF QB. Right now, his play is not at the same level as RGIII or Wilson between the ears.

NastyNate
08-16-2013, 10:06 AM
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/adjusted-interceptions-2012

And people thought I was crazy during the draft period for predicting INT in the high teens for Luck (and could be up to 25 - was my prediction.)
Sure, I was wrong, it could have been 30, but that's because he went deep more often that I thought they would let him.

I still don't know how he'll turn out; I'm still not buying Luck as the next HOF QB. Right now, his play is not at the same level as RGIII or Wilson between the ears.

I'm of the same mentality, I just don't see the production to go with all the hype.

HTown2ATX
08-16-2013, 10:38 AM
IMO our division is just barely a step above the AFC East and that's only because I think INDY will at least be competent.

JAX and TEN will most like blow donkey balls and be the equivalent of a fap fap fap meme on the field.

This is essentially a default division title for us this year, that's the reality. So that is the first step and if that doesn't happen it's a failure.

rmartin65
08-16-2013, 10:46 AM
Texans, but I think that the Colts make it close.

drs23
08-16-2013, 11:24 AM
Texans, but I think that the Colts make it close.

Will we finally win in Indy? That snakebite has to go away!

76Texan
08-16-2013, 11:43 AM
I'm of the same mentality, I just don't see the production to go with all the hype.

Not to say Luck wasn't any good.
He had his several good moments, but so did the other guys.
Perhaps, they put too much on his plate.
It will be interesting to see if the Colts look to control the ball more this year with the addition of Ahmad Bradshaw at RB, Gosder Cherilus at RT, and Donald Thomas at LG. If these guys showed up, they can help Luck a great deal.
And Fleener, too.

That could make the Colts offense very dangerous.

BullBlitz
11-12-2013, 09:07 PM
Texans are building a dynasty. If Hopkins is real deal and we can resolve question marks at RT/ ILB/SS and NT and we should, this could be a remarkable season. Our depth is going to be very good.

:kubepalm:

DocBar
11-12-2013, 09:14 PM
Not to say Luck wasn't any good.
He had his several good moments, but so did the other guys.
Perhaps, they put too much on his plate.
It will be interesting to see if the Colts look to control the ball more this year with the addition of Ahmad Bradshaw at RB, Gosder Cherilus at RT, and Donald Thomas at LG. If these guys showed up, they can help Luck a great deal.
And Fleener, too.

That could make the Colts offense very dangerous.Luck'sclaim to fame is comeback wins. Those will tend to average out over a career. Luck is a good QB but not a great one, so far.

I'd much rather Lady Luck favor me in the SB (ala Eli Manning) than in the regular season (ala Andrew Luck). Too many excellent QB's have gone without a SB to make that the main criteria for judging QB's.

2slik4u
11-12-2013, 09:14 PM
Haha. Suckers. I waited until now to vote and I voted Indy.

I win - 139 of you lose.

VTexan
11-12-2013, 11:14 PM
that feel when i voted for the texans http://i.imgur.com/BvQvhZC.gif

Vance87
11-12-2013, 11:36 PM
http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m8vpe29mD21qdezf9o1_500.gif

ATXtexanfan
11-12-2013, 11:44 PM
Hard not to take texans

What a fool

Norg
11-13-2013, 02:34 AM
is it still even possible to win the divison at 9-7 INDY would have to obvs have a meltdown but HEY


There is still a 2% chance LOL

Sigma
11-13-2013, 03:06 AM
It has been so obvious for so many years, you wonder why it's never investigated. I'm talking about somebody's ability to bribe officials in favor of the Colts. That's basically why I'm picking them to win.

looks to me they bribed the texans :)

the jags are not a problem

maybe the titans will pull off an upset ;D

Thorn
11-13-2013, 04:16 AM
Haha. Suckers. I waited until now to vote and I voted Indy.

I win - 139 of you lose.

:lol:

HOU-TEX
11-13-2013, 09:20 AM
The Astros by a large margin

I was close

Dutchrudder
11-13-2013, 09:23 AM
:kubepalm:

It figures a Colts fan would bump this thread.

BullBlitz
11-13-2013, 08:33 PM
It figures a Colts fan would bump this thread.

Yeah, it figures.

YeaLikeRightNow
11-14-2013, 02:55 AM
Yeah, it figures.


I picked the Colts waaaaay back, but decided to vote this morning. After I read a few articles that the Texans would have a so-so year in 2013, and not realizing how significant last season's fall from greatness was, I still had lingering thoughts that something wasn't quite right with Schaub. He really hurt the team with his performances, and it domino'ed throughout the remainder of the team.

The saddest fact is the other fans from our rivals are cheering our demise, yet do not realize that a strong division is best for us all. When you have a division like we have right now, with what I believe to be "Parity At It's Greatest", would you pass up even a good Jets/Patriots game to watch a Colts/Jags game? It all adds up to dollars and cents, and our division right now, is only equal to or less than the NFC East.

thunderkyss
11-15-2013, 07:00 AM
Luck'sclaim to fame is comeback wins. Those will tend to average out over a career. Luck is a good QB but not a great one, so far.

I'd much rather Lady Luck favor me in the SB (ala Eli Manning) than in the regular season (ala Andrew Luck). Too many excellent QB's have gone without a SB to make that the main criteria for judging QB's.

I'm concerned he develops some bad habits & doesn't actually improve as a QB.

False Start
11-15-2013, 08:55 AM
Of course, I went with the Texans. I think the Colts will give them a run for their money though.

I guess I will go with the Colts now. :heh:

badboy
11-15-2013, 10:12 AM
:kubepalm:Yeah but I still think at the time I posted that we were looking very good. I will try to be more pessimistic.