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Texans_Chick
07-17-2013, 07:58 AM
Know this has been discussed some here because most fans have sentient thought and eyeballs.

It's the subject I'm discussing for my first post that goes only to the Ultimate Texans part of the Chron website. (For those who missed the news, my TC blog has been shut down, and all my content is going to Ultimate Texans website. This is to make it easier for people to find Texans content in one spot on the website, and more importantly to sell one big blog to advertisers instead of a bunch of little ones. The good news with this is that it may be easier for road trip fans to find my content for the 2013 season, and to me that has become a higher priority in-season).

Here is the link to my blog post: "A detailed look at Houston Texans 2012 3rd and long run plays" (http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans/2013/07/texans-2012-3rd-down-runs/)

Has some stuff you know, maybe a few things you didn't know. Mostly it frames the issue going into the next season. I'd love for extra comments on this because I think of blog posts as time capsules of a subject--love to look at old ones to see what was right and not so right.

If you want to find my writing on the site, you can click on my name in the blog post, or click on the "Voices" tab at the top of the page. Or here's the direct link: http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans/author/stephaniestradley/

Thanks for sending page views that direction. It is what allows me the opportunity to go to training camp and share what I see there to you.

76Texan
07-17-2013, 11:45 AM
Steph, nice read as usual. Thumb up!

We have talked about this before on this MB.
Kubiak, from what I observe, believes in "percentage", risk-averse football.
It can be boring for many fans, but overall, one cannot deny the result.

I want to remind all that the Texans also faced third and long situations near their own end zone more than the average of the league.

That was not the only peculiar thing for them; the Texans also had too many negative plays on first downs, Alex Gibbs would have cringed at the boys if he was still here, methink, because in his own words, he would have been fired for that.

infantrycak
07-17-2013, 11:56 AM
I want to remind all that the Texans also faced third and long situations near their own end zone more than the average of the league.

I was wondering about a breakdown by field position. Did you do something on that?

Texans_Chick
07-17-2013, 06:19 PM
Steph, nice read as usual. Thumb up!

We have talked about this before on this MB.
Kubiak, from what I observe, believes in "percentage", risk-averse football.
It can be boring for many fans, but overall, one cannot deny the result.

I want to remind all that the Texans also faced third and long situations near their own end zone more than the average of the league.

That was not the only peculiar thing for them; the Texans also had too many negative plays on first downs, Alex Gibbs would have cringed at the boys if he was still here, methink, because in his own words, he would have been fired for that.

3rd & +7 in near own end zone data link (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&year_min=2012&year_max=2012&team_id=&opp_id=&game_type=R&playoff_round=&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter=1&quarter=2&quarter=3&quarter=4&quarter=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=00&down=3&ytg_gtlt=gt&yds_to_go=7&yg_gtlt=gt&yards=&is_first_down=-1&fp_gtlt=lt&fp_tm_opp=team&fp_ydline=20&type=PASS&type=RUSH&is_turnover=-1&is_scoring=-1&no_play=0&game_day_of_week=&game_location=&game_result=&margin_min=&margin_max=&order_by=yards#tm_offense::2).

14 games, 24 times, near worst in league. Unlike most of those other teams, ran/pass 50-50 from that situation. Likely because didn't need to take risk.

Also, here's the grim numbers on 1st down and 0 or less yards achieved link (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&year_min=2012&year_max=2012&team_id=&opp_id=&game_type=R&playoff_round=&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter=1&quarter=2&quarter=3&quarter=4&quarter=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=00&down=1&ytg_gtlt=gt&yds_to_go=&yg_gtlt=lt&yards=0&is_first_down=-1&fp_gtlt=lt&fp_tm_opp=team&fp_ydline=&type=PASS&type=RUSH&is_turnover=-1&is_scoring=-1&no_play=0&game_day_of_week=&game_location=&game_result=&margin_min=&margin_max=&order_by=yards).

Saw the numbers at Football Outsiders on run stuffs. The numbers of 2012 were bad (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2012). Much worse than any other Dennison year. Even worse than some bad running game years.

You can't just attribute that to running in obvious run situations because 2011 they did that a lot.

HJam72
07-18-2013, 10:46 AM
I gotta blame the right side of the line for some of this, but Kubiak is certainly no gambler.

The Pencil Neck
07-18-2013, 12:17 PM
I gotta blame the right side of the line for some of this, but Kubiak is certainly no gambler.

I think it comes down to NOT trusting the right side of the line and ABSOLUTELY trusting the defense.

That works great when your defense can stop the other team. But if you're facing someone like the Patriots or the Packers, UR DUUUUUMD.

76Texan
07-18-2013, 01:36 PM
3rd & +7 in near own end zone data link (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&year_min=2012&year_max=2012&team_id=&opp_id=&game_type=R&playoff_round=&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter=1&quarter=2&quarter=3&quarter=4&quarter=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=00&down=3&ytg_gtlt=gt&yds_to_go=7&yg_gtlt=gt&yards=&is_first_down=-1&fp_gtlt=lt&fp_tm_opp=team&fp_ydline=20&type=PASS&type=RUSH&is_turnover=-1&is_scoring=-1&no_play=0&game_day_of_week=&game_location=&game_result=&margin_min=&margin_max=&order_by=yards#tm_offense::2).

14 games, 24 times, near worst in league. Unlike most of those other teams, ran/pass 50-50 from that situation. Likely because didn't need to take risk.

Also, here's the grim numbers on 1st down and 0 or less yards achieved link (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&year_min=2012&year_max=2012&team_id=&opp_id=&game_type=R&playoff_round=&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter=1&quarter=2&quarter=3&quarter=4&quarter=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=00&down=1&ytg_gtlt=gt&yds_to_go=&yg_gtlt=lt&yards=0&is_first_down=-1&fp_gtlt=lt&fp_tm_opp=team&fp_ydline=&type=PASS&type=RUSH&is_turnover=-1&is_scoring=-1&no_play=0&game_day_of_week=&game_location=&game_result=&margin_min=&margin_max=&order_by=yards).

Saw the numbers at Football Outsiders on run stuffs. The numbers of 2012 were bad (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2012). Much worse than any other Dennison year. Even worse than some bad running game years.

You can't just attribute that to running in obvious run situations because 2011 they did that a lot.

But since they didn't take many chances on third and long, they didn't have
any turn over either.

76Texan
07-18-2013, 01:38 PM
I gotta blame the right side of the line for some of this, but Kubiak is certainly no gambler.

Nah, all five guys (and other guys in the rotation) have their fair share of boos boos, not just the right side.

76Texan
07-18-2013, 01:51 PM
On 3rd and 7 or longer outside their own 20, the Texans attempted 65 passes vs 14 rushes.

That's a completely different story as compared to when they were inside their own 20.

CharloTex
07-18-2013, 03:06 PM
On 3rd and 7 or longer outside their own 20, the Texans attempted 65 passes vs 14 rushes.

That's a completely different story as compared to when they were inside their own 20.

As it should be.

Rey
07-18-2013, 03:20 PM
On 3rd and 7 or longer outside their own 20, the Texans attempted 65 passes vs 14 rushes.

That's a completely different story as compared to when they were inside their own 20.

3rd and 7 is not that big of a deal. If they ran draws in that situation that would be awful.

I think people would like to see Schaub be able to sink or swim on 3rd and 10's or even a bit longer at times.

Rick Smith said that he thinks Matt is going to be asked to do more this season. I hope that includes 3rd and around 10 situations. Kubiak is going to have to un-clench and trust the guy he's starting.

76Texan
07-18-2013, 07:16 PM
3rd and 7 is not that big of a deal. If they ran draws in that situation that would be awful.

I think people would like to see Schaub be able to sink or swim on 3rd and 10's or even a bit longer at times.

Rick Smith said that he thinks Matt is going to be asked to do more this season. I hope that includes 3rd and around 10 situations. Kubiak is going to have to un-clench and trust the guy he's starting.

Thise numbers are first 3rd and 7 AND LONGER, Rey.

For 3rd and 10 PLUS outside of their own 20, the pass run ratio is 35-14, a pretty healthy number of pass plays by Schaub.

It's when it gets to 3rd and 15 or Longer that Kubiak turned conservative again.

Rey
07-18-2013, 07:22 PM
Thise numbers are first 3rd and 7 AND LONGER, Rey.
.

I thought that was implied.

I'm saying I wanted to see the third and 10 or less cut out from the numbers. 3rd and 10 or longer like maybe up to 3rd and 15 is what I was curious about.

76Texan
07-18-2013, 07:46 PM
I thought that was implied.

I'm saying I wanted to see the third and 10 or less cut out from the numbers. 3rd and 10 or longer like maybe up to 3rd and 15 is what I was curious about.

For 3rd and longer than 15; the ratio is 7-6

Between 10 and 15 yards, it's 28-7.
That's a healthy 4 to 1 pass/run ratio.

They just need to cut down on the penalties and the negative plays on first and second down.

Rey
07-18-2013, 10:29 PM
For 3rd and longer than 15; the ratio is 7-6

Between 10 and 15 yards, it's 28-7.
That's a healthy 4 to 1 pass/run ratio.

They just need to cut down on the penalties and the negative plays on first and second down.

Thanks.

That's not what I was expecting. Interesting.

Uncle Rico
07-18-2013, 11:04 PM
Cant go wrong with the halfback pass. 3rd and long, 2nd and Goal, whenever!

:sarcasm:

CretorFrigg
07-19-2013, 02:43 PM
Cant go wrong with the halfback pass. 3rd and long, 2nd and Goal, whenever!

:sarcasm:

If it isn't Chris Brown throwing it, maybe. You might be able to throw off defenses.

ObsiWan
07-21-2013, 04:27 AM
Cant go wrong with the halfback pass. 3rd and long, 2nd and Goal, whenever!

:sarcasm:

If it isn't Chris Brown throwing it, maybe. You might be able to throw off defenses.

It's probably just me but the only pass I want to see Foster making is the little toss to the ref after he scores a TD.
:D

thunderkyss
07-21-2013, 09:32 AM
On 3rd and 7 or longer outside their own 20, the Texans attempted 65 passes vs 14 rushes.

That's a completely different story as compared to when they were inside their own 20.

I don't care.

There was a time when the only stat that mattered was the W-L. Now that Schaub & Kubiak are winning that one, we're going into minutia stats that "really" matter.

The Pencil Neck
07-21-2013, 12:34 PM
I don't care.

There was a time when the only stat that mattered was the W-L. Now that Schaub & Kubiak are winning that one, we're going into minutia stats that "really" matter.

MSR.

That's so true. When we're losing, the people who are trying to look on the bright side retreat to a position using stats to show that we're close to winning. When we're winning, the people who are trying to look on the dark side retreat to a position using stats to show that we're close to losing.

For me, a dissection of the stats of a winning team is really a dissection of how they won. Kubiak was more conservative last year... at times... because he could afford to be. He didn't have to take as many risks to try to win the game. The fact that we won so many games proves that he was right about that.

Now, he just has to figure out what he needs to fix and change to be able to take out teams like the Packers and Patriots and how to construct the team so it doesn't fade at the end of the season.

Surreal McCoy
07-21-2013, 04:04 PM
I don't care.

There was a time when the only stat that mattered was the W-L. Now that Schaub & Kubiak are winning that one, we're going into minutia stats that "really" matter.

MSR

At first it was, 'If Kubiak can't produce a winning season in 4 tries then he never will'.

They swiftly moved on to, 'Kubiak will never make the playoffs'.

Then it became, 'Kubiak will never be able to win a playoff game, he's too _________'.

Which then morphed into, 'Kubiak has plateaued, he'll never win the big one'.

Vinny
07-21-2013, 07:27 PM
MSR

At first it was, 'If Kubiak can't produce a winning season in 4 tries then he never will'.

They swiftly moved on to, 'Kubiak will never make the playoffs'.

Then it became, 'Kubiak will never be able to win a playoff game, he's too _________'.

Which then morphed into, 'Kubiak has plateaued, he'll never win the big one'.I've followed the NFL since the early 70's and it's no different than any other era in any other city.

drs23
07-21-2013, 07:30 PM
MSR

At first it was, 'If Kubiak can't produce a winning season in 4 tries then he never will'.

They swiftly moved on to, 'Kubiak will never make the playoffs'.

Then it became, 'Kubiak will never be able to win a playoff game, he's too _________'.

Which then morphed into, 'Kubiak has plateaued, he'll never win the big one'.

Yeah, kinda funny huh?

If we were to go to Met Life Stadium in February and take home the prize, what would it be next.

"Bet he can't do it again next year..."

I can hear it now. :lol:

Surreal McCoy
07-21-2013, 10:09 PM
I've followed the NFL since the early 70's and it's no different than any other era in any other city.

Ah yes. The authority has spoken.

/close thread

76Texan
07-22-2013, 05:50 PM
MSR.

That's so true. When we're losing, the people who are trying to look on the bright side retreat to a position using stats to show that we're close to winning. When we're winning, the people who are trying to look on the dark side retreat to a position using stats to show that we're close to losing.

For me, a dissection of the stats of a winning team is really a dissection of how they won. Kubiak was more conservative last year... at times... because he could afford to be. He didn't have to take as many risks to try to win the game. The fact that we won so many games proves that he was right about that.

Now, he just has to figure out what he needs to fix and change to be able to take out teams like the Packers and Patriots and how to construct the team so it doesn't fade at the end of the season.
One thing I found interesting, among one of the playbook series that I was able to download some time ago is that some of them are game plan where one team actually record the tendency of another.

You quickly realize that it's already irrelevant by the time you read it; but it's still fascinating or informative just the same.

On the other hand, there are other play books that actually spell out the strength and weakness of the individual players on a certain team and what was the general goal that the coaches looked for entering the season.
Again, these are somewhat to very out of date; they don't affect anything.

There's really nothing that Belichik did that Shanahan can't tell and vice versa by watching regular game tapes.

What was "informative" to me is to see (or to try to get a glimpse of) different systems teached by different coaches at different points in time.

I still go back to them here and there, as I know I can get a little more out of each every time around.

It's just a fascinating sport; things that are old can come back anew with a different twist.