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Texans_Chick
06-20-2013, 12:07 PM
Don't answer the question. Because I'm not sure.

But I do frame the question with a lot of contextual, perspective stuff which is what a lot of my blog posts do. Maybe a few things that will surprise.

What are realistic projections for Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins? (http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2013/06/realistic-projections-texans-wide-receiver-deandre-hopkins/)

thunderkyss
06-20-2013, 12:40 PM
Good read.

I think most people are going to be disappointed by he receptions & yards. His true value, imo, will come off his avg & his touchdown. We need someone to stretch the field & score TDs. That's what will free up Andre & the gang.

Corrosion
06-20-2013, 01:03 PM
Good read.

I think most people are going to be disappointed by he receptions & yards. His true value, imo, will come off his avg & his touchdown. We need someone to stretch the field & score TDs. That's what will free up Andre & the gang.

Im not going to read the article - I refuse to click for the Crapical .... Sorry TC.


As for being disappointed , that's a possibility but I think many may end up surprised by the numbers he puts up. He played against some tough defenses in LSU (13/191 yards & 2 TD's) , Auburn (13/91 & 1 TD).
He also had some of his best moments when it mattered most ....

What I think might disappoint people is the average as while he has long speed and will get some YAC , he's a possession type receiver when all is said and done.

I'll be happy with 60 catches and an average around 12.

beerlover
06-20-2013, 01:13 PM
Numbers are misleading if that is how you choose to measure #2 WR in Kubiak system. Traditional blocking possession receiver who is 3rd/4th option. However if #1 goes out for any extended period all bets are off. DeAndre could really fill the void & that is something Texans have never had. IMO

IDEXAN
06-20-2013, 01:14 PM
Thorough job of analyzing our top pick T_C.
Now my biggest question is did the Texans make the right decision in going with
the very competent Hopkins with the promise of more near-term productive ability vs the potential of a genuine burner like either one of the Tennessee WR prospects, Patterson or Hunter ? And I like Hopkins' hands, but just wonder if the offense wouldn't have been better served with one of the speed guys who unlike Hopkins could definitely have stretched the field ?

eriadoc
06-20-2013, 01:35 PM
Good read.

I think most people are going to be disappointed by he receptions & yards. His true value, imo, will come off his avg & his touchdown. We need someone to stretch the field & score TDs. That's what will free up Andre & the gang.

I don't know about you, but if he starts catching a bunch of TDs, that's just going to make me consider AJ's lack of TD production in a different light.

thunderkyss
06-20-2013, 01:38 PM
I don't know about you, but if he starts catching a bunch of TDs, that's just going to make me consider AJ's lack of TD production in a different light.

Depends. If Andre has a good TD year I'd be convinced it wasn't an "Andre" problem, but more of a "who else are you going to guard" problem.

Rey
06-20-2013, 01:51 PM
I'm expecting around 750 yards for Hopkins. I have no TD expectations.

Ryan
06-20-2013, 01:54 PM
i said around 55 catches and 760 yards with around 4 TDs after he was drafted.

Playoffs
06-20-2013, 02:30 PM
Julio Jones had 54 receptions on 96 targets for 959 yards and 8 TDs in his rookie year. Hopkins won't touch that, imo.

Walter had 68 targets in 2012.

Corrosion
06-20-2013, 02:43 PM
Julio Jones had 54 receptions on 96 targets for 959 yards and 8 TDs in his rookie year. Hopkins won't touch that, imo.

Walter had 68 targets in 2012.

Two totally different offenses ....and Jones didn't have #80 opposite him. Its very possible Hopkins ends up with 60 catches.

badboy
06-20-2013, 03:07 PM
Numbers are misleading if that is how you choose to measure #2 WR in Kubiak system. Traditional blocking possession receiver who is 3rd/4th option. However if #1 goes out for any extended period all bets are off. DeAndre could really fill the void & that is something Texans have never had. IMOAgain very astute comment my Amigo! Fans should not overlook that if AJ goes out Hopkins should be able to fill in. As you point out Texans have never had that. Hopkins was one of a very few in this draft that were #1 potentials. That insurance is great to have.

Side note, check out my thread about Outlaw Shootout in Entertainment forum. Mario Williams will have his boat here.

Texans_Chick
06-20-2013, 03:40 PM
Im not going to read the article - I refuse to click for the Crapical .... Sorry TC.


You know how you encourage good articles? You click on good articles. That encourages the powers that be that quality content is worth hosting.

That anyone clicks on my articles at the Chronicle is the reason why I can go to camp and write things that are details fans care about.

If my articles do not get page views, then at some point the blog will go away. The NYTs has eliminated many of their sports blogs, and probably wouldn't had they got more page hits.

Clicking on analysis pieces gets more analysis pieces. If you don't, then the slideshow and crap content wins.

Texans_Chick
06-20-2013, 03:46 PM
Thorough job of analyzing our top pick T_C.
Now my biggest question is did the Texans make the right decision in going with
the very competent Hopkins with the promise of more near-term productive ability vs the potential of a genuine burner like either one of the Tennessee WR prospects, Patterson or Hunter ? And I like Hopkins' hands, but just wonder if the offense wouldn't have been better served with one of the speed guys who unlike Hopkins could definitely have stretched the field ?

I think Hopkins has the potential to blow the top off the offense.

I've watched him run into an extra gear. He is very, very aggressive once in the ball is in the air. Hard to knock off his stride, catches the ball even with interference.

So no, he's not a 40 time guy, but neither was Jerry Rice. You aren't going to be a great GM if you go after slowish guys from small schools on a regular basis. But you go after special guys.

I think Hopkins has the potential to be a special player. I see the physical tools-- just about learning the offense.

Texans_Chick
06-20-2013, 03:52 PM
Good read.

I think most people are going to be disappointed by he receptions & yards. His true value, imo, will come off his avg & his touchdown. We need someone to stretch the field & score TDs. That's what will free up Andre & the gang.

I hope we are *disappointed* in receptions/yards/TDs even.

That likely means that the defense is wrecking shop and the running game works the way it does best.

Let fantasy football peoples be concerned with numbers.

I think the point isn't just stretching the field, it is in general, making teams pay if they key too much on Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, etc.

Another reliable option means in any one play, you can kill the defense if they overplay anyone. If Hopkins learns up the offense, and Andre Johnson stays healthy, Hopkins will be able to abuse defenses.

But there will be up and downs--mistakes by wide receivers tend to be glaring and bad timing and can be devastating if it results in an interception.

thunderkyss
06-20-2013, 03:55 PM
Again very astute comment my Amigo! Fans should not overlook that if AJ goes out Hopkins should be able to fill in.


As a rookie? I'd be very impressed.

Now if Andre were to go down later in the year & Posey is back, or if LeStar had a great year, then maybe... maybe. But if we're talking about no Andre in week 5 & we go out there with DeAndre, LeStar, KMart...... @ SanFrancisco??

I'm not holding my breath.

Playoffs
06-20-2013, 03:55 PM
Two totally different offenses ....and Jones didn't have #80 opposite him...

The guy next to Jones was 2nd in receptions with 100 that year.

Jone's was a very good recent rookie WR season with a decent(+) QB and a very good #1 for comparison.

thunderkyss
06-20-2013, 03:59 PM
That anyone clicks on my articles at the Chronicle is the reason why I can go to camp and write things that are details fans care about.


So... what's going on at Reliant right now? Do you think you can get in & strike up a conversation with someone? Cedric Smith? Jeff Zgonina? Marciano?

Maybe an update on the scoreboard?

Something? I'm feemin hard.

Texans_Chick
06-20-2013, 04:17 PM
So... what's going on at Reliant right now? Do you think you can get in & strike up a conversation with someone? Cedric Smith? Jeff Zgonina? Marciano?

Maybe an update on the scoreboard?

Something? I'm feemin hard.

It is vacation time. For a while.

And even it is wasn't, you can't just go walking around Reliant with a notepad and camera like Lois Lane scaling mountains in the dark in the arctic. You do interviews at time when interviews can be done--or set them up through PR staff.

So, in other words, this is the time of year where I do analysis focused pieces instead of news focused ones.

infantrycak
06-20-2013, 04:20 PM
It is vacation time. For a while.

So, in other words, this is the time of year where I do analysis focused pieces instead of news focused ones.

I think the system focus is a bit misplaced. Have you examined 1st round picks who came into the league to be #2 WRs?

Texans_Chick
06-20-2013, 04:27 PM
I think the system focus is a bit misplaced. Have you examined 1st round picks who came into the league to be #2 WRs?

One of the blog commenters talked a bit on this subject.

And I thought you were looking for good topics. This is a very good one. One of the problems that has turned many Texans fans bitter is not managing expectations well. What many people are asking for out of a #2 WR is #1 WR numbers. So what is reasonable? I looked up some stats from last year to see what an average #2 WR does. A couple things to remember looking at this: 1) Many teams had guys playing other positions than WR who got a lot of catches Ė Iím only looking at wide receivers, and 2) when I talk about WR #1 or WR #2, Iím talking about the guy on each team who had the best or second best stats in that category. For example, Randall Cobb led Green Bay in yards, so he is WR #1 for yardage, but James Jones led the Packers in TDs, so he is WR #1 for TDs.

The average #1 WR in the NFL averaged 1,068 yards last season. Expect a #2 to do better than that? Only 3 did Ė Julio Jones (ATL), Eric Decker (DEN) and Lance Moore (NO). The average #2 WR had 697 yards last season. What about touchdowns? The average #1 scored 7. The average #2 scored 4. Only 3 WR #2 players scored more than 7 TDs: Thomas (DEN), Cobb (GB), and Jackson (TB). So the average #2 receiver should get around 700 yards and 4 TDs. In case anyone is wondering, Kevin Walter was at 518 yards and 2 TDs last season, pretty well below average numbers.

But what about rookies? There were four wide receivers taken in the first round of the 2012 draft. Two of them were second on their teams in yards and TDs: Justin Blackmon for the Jags (865 and 5) and Kendall Wright of the Titans (626 and 4). Arizonaís Michael Floyd was third on his team with 562 and 2, and A.J. Jenkins didnít play much for San Francisco. Throwing out Jenkins since he didnít play, it seems that a rookie should be able to get average numbers, given the opportunities.

So what does all this mean for Houston and DeAndre Hopkins? Probably nothing, as it is a different team with different players, and a fairly small sample size. However, I think it is safe to expect that Hopkins will be better than Walter (as Blackmon and Wright were), and put up yardage around or slightly below 700, and score around 4 TDs. For those wishing for a WR2 over 1000 yards and 10 TDs, only Denver had two wide receivers to go over 1000 yards and over 10 TDs, and they had Peyton Manning at quarterback.

I do think the system/context is something worth focusing on.

The Broncos-Texans draft system gets a lot of coaching input.

But how is it that the Texans have had fungible productive tight ends since 2006, but have had more difficulty replacing WRs?

I think part of that is opportunity.

I also think part of that is the demands placed on WRs in this system. You couldn't have a talented Chad Johnson who can't get the playbook on this roster.

I also think that the balanced run/pass offense means that you can't really make comparisons to teams that do things like let's say the Packers or Saints do. If the team is playing winning football, they aren't going to want Schaub to be regularly doing a ton of attempts.

thunderkyss
06-20-2013, 04:28 PM
You do interviews at time when interviews can be done--or set them up through PR staff.


I figured I'd leave the logistics up to you. Surely if you ask, they'll throw you a bone.....



... for us :cheesysmile:

Insideop
06-20-2013, 04:38 PM
I think Hopkins has the potential to blow the top off the offense.

I've watched him run into an extra gear. He is very, very aggressive once in the ball is in the air. Hard to knock off his stride, catches the ball even with interference.

So no, he's not a 40 time guy, but neither was Jerry Rice. You aren't going to be a great GM if you go after slowish guys from small schools on a regular basis. But you go after special guys.

I think Hopkins has the potential to be a special player. I see the physical tools-- just about learning the offense.

I sure hope you're right about this (blowing the top off the offense) TC. If he can it might add an extra year or two to AJ's career. I'm not expecting much the 1st few games but I'm hoping he really kick's it in to high gear midway through the season and peaks for the playoffs.

76Texan
06-20-2013, 04:41 PM
Corrosion, don't forget that Matt Ryans had 594 attempts that year, with Jones pulling in 54 catches.

If the Texans get ahead and run the ball like they've doing lately, especially with a defense that is supposed to be better than last year, there won't be many pass attempts by Schaub.

And Hopkins is not in Jones' class.

Thorn
06-20-2013, 04:51 PM
As a rookie, I think he will contribute to the Texans offense more than a lot of us are predicting. Will he be the OROY, no. But he is going to make us very happy we drafted him.

infantrycak
06-20-2013, 04:53 PM
Corrosion, don't forget that Matt Ryans had 594 attempts that year, with Jones pulling in 54 catches.

If the Texans get ahead and run the ball like they've doing lately, especially with a defense that is supposed to be better than last year, there won't be many pass attempts by Schaub.

And Hopkins is not in Jones' class.

You're slicing the onion too thin. 2012 the Texans had 554 passing attempts while often holding the lead and running the game clock out. They still pass. No running game and great running game Schaub/Texans have averaged 250 yds passing per game. Not good enough to keep Walter had the ball thrown to him 68 times last season. Seriously do not understand how anyone thinks Hopkins is going to be targeted less.

Corrosion
06-20-2013, 05:07 PM
You know how you encourage good articles? You click on good articles. That encourages the powers that be that quality content is worth hosting.

That anyone clicks on my articles at the Chronicle is the reason why I can go to camp and write things that are details fans care about.

If my articles do not get page views, then at some point the blog will go away. The NYTs has eliminated many of their sports blogs, and probably wouldn't had they got more page hits.

Clicking on analysis pieces gets more analysis pieces. If you don't, then the slideshow and crap content wins.

You make some good points .... but I haven't clicked on the Crapical for over a year (other than stealth links) ... I cant stand that rag.



I hope we are *disappointed* in receptions/yards/TDs even.

That likely means that the defense is wrecking shop and the running game works the way it does best.

Let fantasy football peoples be concerned with numbers.


That wouldn't bother me one bit .... The only number I care about is #48 - the number on this years Superbowl Trophy.



I think the point isn't just stretching the field, it is in general, making teams pay if they key too much on Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, etc.

Another reliable option means in any one play, you can kill the defense if they overplay anyone. If Hopkins learns up the offense, and Andre Johnson stays healthy, Hopkins will be able to abuse defenses.

But there will be up and downs--mistakes by wide receivers tend to be glaring and bad timing and can be devastating if it results in an interception.


Hopkins is a fantastic route runner with a knack for getting open .... and has the speed to make teams pay for mistakes. Watching him in college he was the one receiver I said " I hope that guy is a Texan" ....

Im wondering how defenses deal with the offense in general ... Just so many weapons that can beat you on any given play.
They cant double everyone .... and then the threat of Foster wrecking shop.
The key is the right side of the OL , if they hold up opposing defenses are in for a world of hurt.

Rey
06-20-2013, 05:09 PM
I think Hopkins has the potential to blow the top off the offense.

I've watched him run into an extra gear. He is very, very aggressive once in the ball is in the air. Hard to knock off his stride, catches the ball even with interference.

So no, he's not a 40 time guy, but neither was Jerry Rice. You aren't going to be a great GM if you go after slowish guys from small schools on a regular basis. But you go after special guys.

I think Hopkins has the potential to be a special player. I see the physical tools-- just about learning the offense.

I agree with that. Hopkins plays like a buzz saw at the WR position.

Corrosion
06-20-2013, 05:14 PM
I agree with that. Hopkins plays like a buzz saw at the WR position.

He reminds me of a more polished version of Anquan Boldin .... Not that he's a more polished receiver but that he has the toughness when the ball is in the air that Boldin has and the knack for finding openings in a defense.


If he has the type of career that Boldin has had I think we'll all be happy.

drs23
06-20-2013, 05:36 PM
Corrosion, don't forget that Matt RyanS had 594 attempts that year, with Jones pulling in 54 catches.



Is that DeMeco's kin folk? :stirpot:

DocBar
06-20-2013, 07:32 PM
I'll take quality receptions over quantity and a good understanding of the offense over flashes in the pan. Hopkins is a rookie and I expect rookie mistakes. I also expect improvement at his position due to rookie enthusiasm and talent. Walter was not nearly as talented as he was work ethic organized.

rolyat93
06-20-2013, 07:50 PM
I don't know about you, but if he starts catching a bunch of TDs, that's just going to make me consider AJ's lack of TD production in a different light.

Well, I don't think defenses are going to defend/gameplan against Hopkins the same way they do/have done with Dre.

76Texan
06-20-2013, 08:01 PM
You're slicing the onion too thin. 2012 the Texans had 554 passing attempts while often holding the lead and running the game clock out. They still pass. No running game and great running game Schaub/Texans have averaged 250 yds passing per game. Not good enough to keep Walter had the ball thrown to him 68 times last season. Seriously do not understand how anyone thinks Hopkins is going to be targeted less.

Take away the 24 attempts in the 2 OT's and what do you get?

How many attempts did the Texans have in 2011 when the D play well?
The Texans did not pass less without Schaub. Basically, they averaged just slightly over 29 attempts per game with or without Schaub.

The Texans were ahead by 2 scores more often in the second half in 2011 than in 2012; and they were in the deep hole only a couple of times in 2011.

You know Kubiak always prefer to run the ball when the Texans have a lead, especially with a good defense on the field.

infantrycak
06-20-2013, 08:09 PM
Take away the 24 attempts in the 2 OT's and what do you get?

I love how you addressed absolutely nothing.

To answer your question nothing different than when you take away the 28 attempts the Falcons, not Ryan, had that you were trying to count.

Spare me the 2011 talk if you are going to try to argue the O was anything close to the same without Schaub. It loses all credibility in my book. Frankly it is just ridiculous to point to a season where the starting QB is out for a third of the season as anything typical.

But if you really want to tell me the passing game didn't change tell me what is the difference in 7.08 and 8.49? Let's see if you know these numbers - 2.2 v. 5.1?

76Texan
06-20-2013, 09:43 PM
I love how you addressed absolutely nothing.

To answer your question nothing different than when you take away the 28 attempts the Falcons, not Ryan, had that you were trying to count.

Spare me the 2011 talk if you are going to try to argue the O was anything close to the same without Schaub. It loses all credibility in my book. Frankly it is just ridiculous to point to a season where the starting QB is out for a third of the season as anything typical.

But if you really want to tell me the passing game didn't change tell me what is the difference in 7.08 and 8.49? Let's see if you know these numbers - 2.2 v. 5.1?
Let's take this one step at a time.

The Falcons had 588 attempts in regular time; the Texans had 530 attempts last year.

Meaning, not counting OT for either team.
One cannot predict nor expect to see an OT game.

The difference of 58 attempts is at least 1.5 game worth in the passing game for the Texans.

Can we agree on that much?

Playoffs
06-20-2013, 10:04 PM
I'm as excited as anyone about DeAndre....

but let's not crown him until we've at least seen him in pads, going over the middle, taking hits, etc.

Scooter
06-20-2013, 10:22 PM
i'm waiting to hear what steph says about hopkins in training camp. during OTA's there was a very "man among boys" theme from reporters, if that continues i'd be comfortable predicting a big season (700+ yds). schaub will be looking to hopkins several times a game, and i expect kubiak to throw it to him early in games to pull teams off of andre.

badboy
06-20-2013, 10:43 PM
As a rookie? I'd be very impressed.

Now if Andre were to go down later in the year & Posey is back, or if LeStar had a great year, then maybe... maybe. But if we're talking about no Andre in week 5 & we go out there with DeAndre, LeStar, KMart...... @ SanFrancisco??

I'm not holding my breath.Imo, Hopkins over Kmart and Jean. Posey not there until late season if at all. I'm not sure Hopkins realizes he is a rookie.

badboy
06-20-2013, 10:49 PM
Well, I don't think defenses are going to defend/gameplan against Hopkins the same way they do/have done with Dre.Well, that is a pretty bold and safe statement. Multi year pro-bowler versus a rookie and they guard the rookie differently? :butterfly:

thunderkyss
06-20-2013, 11:34 PM
I'm as excited as anyone about DeAndre....

but let's not crown him until we've at least seen him in pads, going over the middle, taking hits, etc.

I'd rather seem him going over the middle, avoiding hits, & scoring TDs

thunderkyss
06-20-2013, 11:38 PM
Imo, Hopkins over Kmart and Jean. Posey not there until late season if at all. I'm not sure Hopkins realizes he is a rookie.

What are you talking about? Hopkins is a one man team now?

If there is no Andre, Hopkins will be on the field as the #1, LeStar or KMart will be #2, unless Posey is back. It's not Hopkins vs LeStar, etc...

It's Andre & DeAndre vs Hopkins & whatever we got left.

beerlover
06-21-2013, 12:44 AM
DeAndre is almost a straight up comp to Hakeem Nicks, NG fame & former North Carolina Tar Heel. 6006 212 4.51 vs Hopkins 6010 214 Clemson. Strength of each is they pluck the ball & can snatch it away from defenders in tight coverage. Nicks rookie year he had 47 receptions 790 yards for a 16.8 ypc. & 6 TD's. Manning tends to spread the ball around more than Schaub plus he had Steve Smith catching 107 balls & Mario Manningham 57. So I really expect somewhere between 50-60 receptions & minimum of 7 TDs. That realistic. Also feel his yards per catch will be closer to Hakeem than a Steve Smith, plus he does have a little more speed than Nicks so 17 ypc. isn't out of the question, say 55X17= 935 yards & 7 TD's.

Back to the comparison both were Junior or underclassman early entries. Nicks selected in first round #29th overall DeAndre 27th overall. Both attack the football with strong hands. Both have the same impressive arm length 33" 10" hands, 36 vertical jump & both set multiple school records in receiving. However, there is one big advantage DeAndre will enjoy over Nicks & that is being mentored both on & off the field by Andre Johnson.

BL :wesmantexanfan:

thunderkyss
06-21-2013, 07:36 AM
So I really expect somewhere between 50-60 receptions & minimum of 7 TDs. That realistic. Also feel his yards per catch will be closer to Hakeem than a Steve Smith, plus he does have a little more speed than Nicks so 17 ypc. isn't out of the question, say 55X17= 935 yards & 7 TD's.


I'd be happy if he has a 17 ypc & 7 TDs... he'll have earned his draft spot in my mind.

What's going to help is that it looks like "everyone" is saying he has a big catch radius & he plucks and fights for the ball. That's going to help him with Schaub & his trust issues.

badboy
06-21-2013, 11:50 AM
What are you talking about? Hopkins is a one man team now?

If there is no Andre, Hopkins will be on the field as the #1, LeStar or KMart will be #2, unless Posey is back. It's not Hopkins vs LeStar, etc...

It's Andre & DeAndre vs Hopkins & whatever we got left.Here is posts

Originally Posted by badboy
Again very astute comment my Amigo! Fans should not overlook that if AJ goes out Hopkins should be able to fill in.


Originally posted by TK in response

As a rookie? I'd be very impressed.

Now if Andre were to go down later in the year & Posey is back, or if LeStar had a great year, then maybe... maybe. But if we're talking about no Andre in week 5 & we go out there with DeAndre, LeStar, KMart...... @ SanFrancisco??

I'm not holding my breath.


TK, where did I say Hopkins is a one man team? Big over reach on your part.
Martin was not drafted with any hope he would replace AJ if the latter goes out. Jean while he has the size and maybe the skills to be #1, we have seen nothing to support that despite his experience. IMO, if Andre were to miss a game, based on what we know right now, I'd start Hopkins.

thunderkyss
06-21-2013, 12:15 PM
Here is posts

Originally Posted by badboy
Again very astute comment my Amigo! Fans should not overlook that if AJ goes out Hopkins should be able to fill in.


Originally posted by TK in response

As a rookie? I'd be very impressed.

Now if Andre were to go down later in the year & Posey is back, or if LeStar had a great year, then maybe... maybe. But if we're talking about no Andre in week 5 & we go out there with DeAndre, LeStar, KMart...... @ SanFrancisco??

I'm not holding my breath.


TK, where did I say Hopkins is a one man team? Big over reach on your part.
Martin was not drafted with any hope he would replace AJ if the latter goes out. Jean while he has the size and maybe the skills to be #1, we have seen nothing to support that despite his experience. IMO, if Andre were to miss a game, based on what we know right now, I'd start Hopkins.

Andre is Andre. He's going to be a badas5 with scrubs lined up on the other side of him. Whether that be a scrub named Kevin Walter, LeStar Jean, Kevin Martin, Eric Moulds.. it don't matter.

What we've needed is a guy to step into Andre's shoes & be a bad ass with scrubs named LeStar Jean & Kevin Martin on the other side of the field.

I'm not saying.... & none of my posts alluded to, maybe someone other than DeAndre being that replacement for Andre. I'm not saying & did not say I think LeStar or KMart has an opportunity to be that guy.

I said I do not believe we'll see DeAndre be that Andre replacement in his rookie year, especially not with the likes of LeStar Jean & Kevin Martin lined up on the other side of the field. If Posey were healthy & lined up on the other side..... maybe DeAndre can produce like a #1 (maybe).

Other than that, if Andre misses any time at all, our offense is going to suffer big time.

beerlover
06-21-2013, 01:05 PM
Andre is Andre. He's going to be a badas5 with scrubs lined up on the other side of him. Whether that be a scrub named Kevin Walter, LeStar Jean, Kevin Martin, Eric Moulds.. it don't matter.

What we've needed is a guy to step into Andre's shoes & be a bad ass with scrubs named LeStar Jean & Kevin Martin on the other side of the field.

I'm not saying.... & none of my posts alluded to, maybe someone other than DeAndre being that replacement for Andre. I'm not saying & did not say I think LeStar or KMart has an opportunity to be that guy.

I said I do not believe we'll see DeAndre be that Andre replacement in his rookie year, especially not with the likes of LeStar Jean & Kevin Martin lined up on the other side of the field. If Posey were healthy & lined up on the other side..... maybe DeAndre can produce like a #1 (maybe).

Other than that, if Andre misses any time at all, our offense is going to suffer big time.

I think the point is if Andre misses any time Texans finally have somebody who can step up & fill the void until he returns. That cannot be said in the past. Of course lets just let it all play out & everybody gets/stays healthy.

b0ng
06-21-2013, 01:12 PM
My realistic projection for Deandre Hopkins is to have an impact on the Texans offense this year. If that is done by catching balls, running great routes, run blocking with effort, whatever, that's my expectations.

Getting into the bits about arguing about numbers is just semantics, he could catch 800 yards worth of balls while the Texans have a sub par season and it wouldn't matter. My only expectation is impact, and I think he's going to do just that for the Texans. Have an impact.

TexansSeminole
06-21-2013, 02:47 PM
I don't think trying to compare Hopkins to other receivers drafted by other teams is a good way to go about predicting his impact. We should look at other #2 receivers we have had and compare Hopkins' talent and skill set to those receivers. The problem is that we haven't had many #2 receivers worth targeting alot to predict Hopkins' production with any accuracy.

Hopkins compares to Walter in that they are both, mostly, possession type receivers. I think Hopkins has about equal route running ability right now than what Walter was last year, but with more run after catch, pure catch strength, and explosiveness. I'd suspect that Hopkins, in the beginning of the year, will be targeted a tad more than Walter was last year and will give us more production per target. If that is the case, we probably will be seeing Hopkins' opportunities increase toward the end of the season and into the playoffs. Obviously, that is assuming we don't have injuries to Andre, our TEs, or Hopkins himself. Injuries to other weapons will only see Hopkins' targets increase.

Alot of this has to do with Hopkins' confidence and development going forward. If he takes advantage of his opportunities early on, I think the sky is the limit for him this year. If he shows Kubiak that he can produce early when given the opportunity, he could become a pretty large part of the offense. We don't have alot of weapons that would take away from his opportunities.

Long story short, Hopkins' numbers should be better than Walter last year and he should most definitely be a bigger part of the offense than any #2 receiver we have ever had.

infantrycak
06-21-2013, 03:02 PM
Alot of this has to do with Hopkins' confidence and development going forward. If he takes advantage of his opportunities early on, I think the sky is the limit for him this year. If he shows Kubiak that he can produce early when given the opportunity, he could become a pretty large part of the offense. We don't have alot of weapons that would take away from his opportunities.

This. All this system talk, etc., last year our young WR's failed when trusted. I am sorry but 40% completions is unacceptable. HC, OC, QB aren't going to keep throwing the ball to 40% options when they have 80% options.

76Texan
06-21-2013, 04:30 PM
Seminole, while I agree with a good part of the things you said, what I've been wanting to do is to lay out the best course for the Texans as a team.

Number one, we hope that the D get back to the top five form of 2011.

Number two, we hope that Lechler can help win the field position battle as he should.

Kubiak is a "percentage" HC.
If he can trust the defense and the special team play, you just know he won't take a lot of chance in throwing the ball.

On top of that, as long as the top guys are healthy, Schaub is going to rely on AJ, OD, Foster, and now Graham to move the chain while the Texans keep feeding the ball to the RB with Jones as the lead blocker.

That is the key to the Texans success, not how many balls a rookie receiver is going to catch.

But if the opponents' defense go to sleep, like they did with Foster in his career year, I would hope that Kubiak takes advantage of it just the same.

But as we're talking about "average" and "likely hood ", I do not expect Hopkins to be a top 3 contributor in his rookie year.

Corrosion
06-21-2013, 06:28 PM
This. All this system talk, etc., last year our young WR's failed when trusted. I am sorry but 40% completions is unacceptable. HC, OC, QB aren't going to keep throwing the ball to 40% options when they have 80% options.

They didn't tale advantage of one of their best options in the passing game as much last season as they had in the past - Im talking about Foster. Really boggled my mind as to why he didn't get as many looks as he had in seasons past.

Playoffs
06-21-2013, 06:37 PM
...Schaub is going to rely on AJ, OD, Foster, and now Graham to move the chain while the Texans keep feeding the ball to the RB with Jones as the lead blocker...

Outside of Hopkin's capabilities, my concern is whether Schaub will get comfortable finding Hopkins.

infantrycak
06-21-2013, 07:06 PM
They didn't tale advantage of one of their best options in the passing game as much last season as they had in the past - Im talking about Foster. Really boggled my mind as to why he didn't get as many looks as he had in seasons past.

I wondered about Foster. Still don't get it.

Corrosion
06-21-2013, 09:11 PM
Outside of Hopkin's capabilities, my concern is with the health of Schaub's foot

FIFY


I wondered about Foster. Still don't get it.

I'll fill you in after I ask the question , its one that really didn't cross my mind until that reply. :worldpeace:

b0ng
06-22-2013, 12:46 AM
I wondered about Foster. Still don't get it.

With how many carries he got last year they might have been trying to limit his total touches. Of course this is utter speculation and he might not have bee catching the ball that well in practice who knows.

rolyat93
06-22-2013, 02:43 AM
Well, that is a pretty bold and safe statement. Multi year pro-bowler versus a rookie and they guard the rookie differently? :butterfly:

Did you read the post that I responded to? I know I wasn't breaking any news, lol.

IDEXAN
06-22-2013, 08:56 AM
Good chance though not a sure thing that eventually Hopkins will be our #1 WR depending on how his career develops and to what degree he succeeds as an NFL receiver, but in the meantime being the #2 is the ideal scenario for him with Johnson appearing to still be a very good #1 WR.
I like to compare it to what teams reportedly are planning to do with their OT picks in this years draft, including the very highest picks like Fischer in KC, Joeckel in Jacksonville, and Johnson in Philly who were all LTs in college. For atleast the first year or 2, these teams are going to play these guys at RT and then eventually move them over to the more challenging LT position.

thunderkyss
06-22-2013, 09:38 AM
With how many carries he got last year they might have been trying to limit his total touches. Of course this is utter speculation and he might not have bee catching the ball that well in practice who knows.

Did he just not go into a route?

I'd have to imagine he went out for a pass just as often as he did in previous years, Schaub either didn't have time to check it down or he found a better target.

We didn't run as many HB screens as we have in the past, I don't think. I'm sure that was part of it.

beerlover
06-22-2013, 02:18 PM
Off season is full of conjecture & anticipation for upcoming season, happens every summer. there may be unrealistic expectations/hopes based on many factors your pick - Kubiak tendencies, past years WR production for Texans, current state of roster, historical rookie success in the NFL, College numbers as well as scouting reports/analysis & player comparisons. Back to Hakeem Nicks who I followed & was my favorite WR in College back in 09. Comparing him to Hopkins is quite the compliment in my book. So color me guilty of high expectations, like Texan Chick (good article) been extremely impressed with his work ethic & attitude something you need to see in camp to verify.

Let me flash another angle based off his College production @ Clemson were he played with a higher rated & probable future early, maybe top 10 WR in teammate Sammy Watkins. All DeAndre did was assert himself, the #2 WR on this club with 82 receptions, 1405 yards, 17.3 avg. per catch & 18 TD's. Watkins caught 57 balls, 708 yards, 12.42 avg. per catch & 3 TD's. We all would love to see that kinda of production from Hopkins for the Texans but don't expect Andre Johnson, unless injured, to drop off his game like Watkins still it does provide an example that DeAndre is capable of being the teams #1 WR option if so used.

Hence I consider my expectations of 55/800/17/7 well within reasonable certainty based off values coming into the NFL fitting on roster, in this system with Gary Kubiak as his head coach. FWIW

BL :wesmantexanfan:

The Pencil Neck
06-22-2013, 02:28 PM
With how many carries he got last year they might have been trying to limit his total touches. Of course this is utter speculation and he might not have bee catching the ball that well in practice who knows.

I thought that had come up during the season.

But also, going just from memory and feeling, he dropped a lot of balls last year that he normally would have caught in previous years. And when he drops a ball, it usually kills a drive because it's on a 3rd down where he gets the ball around the line of scrimmage and is expected to do his thing to get to the first down marker.

In previous years, he caught those things and broke them. Last year, not so much.

Vance87
06-22-2013, 02:55 PM
Realistic projections?

Hard work, dedication, team-oriented play.

That is all I want.

Texans_Chick
06-24-2013, 06:02 PM
I wondered about Foster. Still don't get it.

Things I heard talk about this:

1. He already was getting a lot of touches, so an attempt to limit.

2. He did some uncustomary drops at bad times.

3. Some of the targets that would have otherwise gone to Foster went to James Casey instead. That likely won't happen this year.

4. Think teams are very much keying on Foster because Foster. Makes it harder to slip out, surprise anyone.

Texans_Chick
06-24-2013, 06:03 PM
This. All this system talk, etc., last year our young WR's failed when trusted. I am sorry but 40% completions is unacceptable. HC, OC, QB aren't going to keep throwing the ball to 40% options when they have 80% options.

Ding ding ding.

I think that may also be one of the reasons why when given the choice of any WR on the planet other than Austin, they went to Hopkins.

Real receiver hands. Don't matter what flash you got if you can't catch the blasted football.

GoCoogs
06-26-2013, 09:40 AM
Daniel Jeremiah thinks he will catch at least 60 passes this season:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000214331/article/tavon-austin-manti-teo-among-instantimpact-rookies-in-2013?campaign=Twitter_writers_jeremiah Houston Texans


3) DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans: For the past 10 seasons, Andre Johnson (http://www.nfl.com/player/andrejohnson/2505551/profile) has been as productive as just about any wide receiver in the NFL. He's caught more than 800 balls and eclipsed 11,000 receiving yards. That's quite impressive, considering he's never had a legitimate No. 2 wideout to keep opposing defenses honest. Enter Hopkins. The former Clemson receiver broke the ACC's single-season record for receiving touchdowns with 18 last fall and his combination of short-area quickness and ball skills will be a welcome addition to the Texans (http://www.nfl.com/teams/houstontexans/profile?team=HOU)' passing attack. He should start right away and post 60-plus catches during his rookie campaign.

michaelm
06-26-2013, 04:39 PM
Daniel Jeremiah thinks he will catch at least 60 passes this season:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000214331/article/tavon-austin-manti-teo-among-instantimpact-rookies-in-2013?campaign=Twitter_writers_jeremiah Houston Texans

I seriously need to temper my expectations with Hopkins. If someone predicted 70 receptions and 1,000+yds, I would not argue with them.

*disclaimer* I said I wouldn't argue with the prediction, but that is NOT my prediction.
My numbers from an earlier post in this thread:
44 receptions
587 yards
13.33 Avg
4 TDs

(seems a little conservative, in retrospect...)