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View Full Version : Looking a couple of years into the Texans future


paycheck71
05-26-2013, 01:50 AM
I was browsing overthecap.com trying to figure out what the Texans cap situation might be in the coming few years given that they have to sign JJ Watt (2015), Cushing (2014), and KJax (2014) among others. Feel free to add to the list of who you think is important to resign in the coming years, but here are a couple of things that jumped out at me.

1. Matt Schaub's cap # in 2015 is $17MM. If they cut him after 2014 season, they save $10MM in cap space. He will turn 34 in 2015.
2. Andre Johnson's cap # in 2015 is $14.6MM. By cutting Dre they can save $10.4MM in cap space. He will also turn 34 in 2015.

Those two are unquestionably two of the major parts of who the Texans are today. We can debate our level of confidence in Matt, as we have and I'm sure we will continue to do on this message board, but I don't think anyone questions how important AJ is to this team at this moment. In two years they will both be at the age where the inevitable decline in their skills should start or already be in progress and evident.

2015 is the year that JJ Watt becomes a free agent and will most likely require a ridiculous amount of money to resign.

Do the Texans cut or trade Matt and AJ after the 2014 season?
Do they extend them to push some of the money into the future years when they're even older (like the Patriots did with Brady)?
Do they ask them to take a pay cut?
Or do they exercise their 5th year rookie option on JJ and delay the decision on paying him until 2016?
Will that piss him off and make him less likely to sign a team friendly deal?

Links (you can navigate from there to the right year and other players):
http://www.overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Texans&Year=2013
http://www.overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Andre%20Johnson&Position=WR&Team=Texans
http://www.overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Matt%20Schaub&Position=QB&Team=Texans

PapaL
05-26-2013, 01:55 AM
I think most of those questions will be answered this year. I don't see a scenario where Schaub is making that much. We very likely will not have another Andre Johnson but if one of these WRs steps up, *cough*Hopkins*cough*, then it'll make the AJ scenario much easier to process.

paycheck71
05-26-2013, 05:54 PM
I think most of those questions will be answered this year. I don't see a scenario where Schaub is making that much. We very likely will not have another Andre Johnson but if one of these WRs steps up, *cough*Hopkins*cough*, then it'll make the AJ scenario much easier to process.

For some reason, rational or not, I feel less worried about the WR position in two years than I do about the QB. I don't think Schaub will be worth the $17MM cap number then, so there needs to be a contingency plan. Obviously we'll see how things shake out this year, and the year after, but if none of the QB's on the roster now show any sign of being ready to take over the starting job soon, I hope the Texans spend an early round pick on a QB next year. IMO it should be the top priority.

houstonspartan
05-26-2013, 06:15 PM
I like this thread. This is what I've been saying all along: this team has to win NOW.

RIGHT NOW.

We have about two years before JJ's contract, the Schaub situation, Andre's possible retirement and Cushing contract all hit this team at the same time.


And, let me say this about JJ: He will never, ever, ever, ever, ever play for another team. EVER. If he continues to play at the same level, McNair will open the vault and make him the highest paid player this league has ever seen.

In order to do that, though, we are eventually going to have to clean house.

That's why we have to win RIGHT NOW.

painekiller
05-26-2013, 06:22 PM
but if none of the QB's on the roster now show any sign of being ready to take over the starting job soon, I hope the Texans spend an early round pick on a QB next year. IMO it should be the top priority.

I agree with this. My understanding the 2014 draft is suppossed to have more QB talent then the last draft. Maybe this all works out or we use TJ or Case as a stop gap QB in a few years, until we are able to grab the guy we want. Also remember that Redskins are sitting on a very solid backup QB that will be coming up to the end of his rookie contract around 2015.

jaayteetx
05-26-2013, 07:16 PM
After what I saw from Schaub last half of the year in 2012, I'm ok with the Texans cutting him this year.

paycheck71
05-26-2013, 07:24 PM
After what I saw from Schaub last half of the year in 2012, I'm ok with the Texans cutting him this year.

I'm guessing you're not serious about this, but just in case you are, this is impossible for at least a couple of reasons:

1. He's still the best QB on the roster.
2. It's financially prohibitive. If they cut him now, they'll carry $21MM+ of dead money this year, which will increase his cap hit for this year by $10.5MM. So, you need to find some other guys to cut, too, to free up that 10.5 mil.

Corrosion
05-26-2013, 09:13 PM
I like this thread. This is what I've been saying all along: this team has to win NOW.

RIGHT NOW.

We have about two years before JJ's contract, the Schaub situation, Andre's possible retirement and Cushing contract all hit this team at the same time.


And, let me say this about JJ: He will never, ever, ever, ever, ever play for another team. EVER. If he continues to play at the same level, McNair will open the vault and make him the highest paid player this league has ever seen.

In order to do that, though, we are eventually going to have to clean house.

That's why we have to win RIGHT NOW.


I don't know if I agree with them having to win "right now".

I believe they will do what it takes to keep the core of the defense * Cushing , Watt and KJax * together in the coming years.

The offense only AJ and Schaub are .... elderly and AJ could be productive even if he does decline.

Schaub .... maybe he gets healthy and takes the team to the promised land but if not , I think they could replace him and still be an elite team on both sides of the ball beyond this two year window.

It all boils down to what talent Rick Smith can plug in at QB if Schaub needs to retire / move on.

thunderkyss
05-26-2013, 09:39 PM
After what I saw from Schaub last half of the year in 2012, I'm ok with the Texans cutting him this year.

If not for Russel Wilson, RG3, & Collin Kaepernick going off, I wonder if so many people would be down on Schaub.

Yes, he played poorly at the end of the season. But he's coming off a goofy surgery, we knew he wasn't going to be the same guy. & of the 7 years he's been the Texans QB, he's done a pretty good job.

Not a great job. There's been a few critics of Schaub's from day one, with cause & that few has steadily grown into a cadre of sorts. But pretty good.


But even in that two month period, there were some well thrown balls that just weren't caught. We had colossal failures in both the run game & the defense.

I understand wanting to ramp up the effort to find Schaub's replacement, but to outright cut him right now with what we've got behind him just doesn't make sense. Even with the promise of "franchise" QBs in the upcoming draft, just doesn't make sense.

houstonspartan
05-26-2013, 10:44 PM
I don't know if I agree with them having to win "right now".

I believe they will do what it takes to keep the core of the defense * Cushing , Watt and KJax * together in the coming years.

The offense only AJ and Schaub are .... elderly and AJ could be productive even if he does decline.

Schaub .... maybe he gets healthy and takes the team to the promised land but if not , I think they could replace him and still be an elite team on both sides of the ball beyond this two year window.

It all boils down to what talent Rick Smith can plug in at QB if Schaub needs to retire / move on.

Let me clarify. By "right now," I mean within the next two years. Our window to win a Super Bowl is two years. After that - the year 2015 - the team will have to be broken up in order to keep key players.

A lot of our contracts are backloaded; eventually, the bill will come due.

We. Have. To. Win. NOW.

wildroot
05-27-2013, 02:11 AM
I like this thread. This is what I've been saying all along: this team has to win NOW.

RIGHT NOW.

That's why we have to win RIGHT NOW.

I thought that was the point of this long arduous road of building through the draft, that we'd never have to be in a "win now or else" situation. Hell, if we needed to win now, we could have won years ago by signing top tier FAs!

DocBar
05-27-2013, 02:26 AM
I thought that was the point of this long arduous road of building through the draft, that we'd never have to be in a "win now or else" situation. Hell, if we needed to win now, we could have won years ago by signing top tier FAs!This is what happens when your team drafts too well. The Texans have done a good job of building through the draft but now have to make some tough decisions on who to keep and who let go.

I'm not at all against letting Schaub go after next season but I really hope AJ gets a better fate than being a salary cap casualty. He's been the most important part of this team for 10 years. I hope he retires a Texan.

Corrosion
05-27-2013, 03:05 AM
Let me clarify. By "right now," I mean within the next two years. Our window to win a Super Bowl is two years. After that - the year 2015 - the team will have to be broken up in order to keep key players.

A lot of our contracts are backloaded; eventually, the bill will come due.

We. Have. To. Win. NOW.

The one thing you have to consider about those backloaded contracts is that much of the money due .... isn't due. Its non-guaranteed money those players will never see , especially in the case of AJ and Schaub.

They should be able to keep those critical players on both sides of the ball beyond the tenures of #8 & 80 ....

Watt , Cushing and KJax are probably the most important of those who expire soon.
Probably the biggest question mark other than AJ and Schaub is how long Foster can remain productive ....


I do agree that as currently constructed they have a ~two year window ... but they are built for the long haul as well - pending they can find a suitable replacement under center. (I wont go into replacing #80 , you don't replace those type of players , you simply move on and .... hope the void can be filled).

This team is fairly young outside of those two players .... I think they can contend long term .... just find a QB (not that its that easy).

HJam72
05-27-2013, 03:32 AM
I gotta give Schaub some credit, though. It takes a pretty decent QB to play here so much and not become a negative acronym or a synonym for a flying apparatus.

:roflcopter:

Corrosion
05-27-2013, 04:07 AM
I gotta give Schaub some credit, though. It takes a pretty decent QB to play here so much and not become a negative acronym or a synonym for a flying apparatus.



Yeah , he's been just good enough to not get stuck with HWWNBM or Rosencopter .... and just bad enough (or hurt enough) to not take the next step.

I sure would like to have the 2009 Schaub with this defense and current cast on offense. 09 and 10 were easily his best seasons .... statistically & health wise.
I really have to wonder if he'll ever be 100% again after that foot injury. I hope he comes in this season and makes me look like an ass for questioning him .... aw hell , what am I talking about , Im an ass most of the time anyway.

EllisUnit
05-27-2013, 04:14 AM
All for it EXCEPT the cutting AJ part, sure the guy is getting older and his production will decline a bit BUT with all he has done for this team and how he has been faithful to this city by putting the team first i do not want to see AJ cut EVER. I believe he should leave the team and city when he is ready to hang up the pads. I dont want to be one of those teams. Even at 34 he can still be a threat maybe not as a #1. Just would leave a bad taste in my mouth if we did that. Not to mention it wouldnt be like when they held onto players like Carr, T Johnson, Okoye to long. This guy has given his all for this city and team. Let him decide when its time.

drs23
05-27-2013, 10:55 AM
Yeah , he's been just good enough to not get stuck with HWWNBM or Rosencopter .... and just bad enough (or hurt enough) to not take the next step.

I sure would like to have the 2009 Schaub with this defense and current cast on offense. 09 and 10 were easily his best seasons .... statistically & health wise.
I really have to wonder if he'll ever be 100% again after that foot injury. I hope he comes in this season and makes me look like an ass for questioning him .... aw hell , what am I talking about , Im an ass most of the time anyway.

Yet a well spoken and informed one though. :D

HJam72
05-27-2013, 11:23 AM
All for it EXCEPT the cutting AJ part, sure the guy is getting older and his production will decline a bit BUT with all he has done for this team and how he has been faithful to this city by putting the team first i do not want to see AJ cut EVER. I believe he should leave the team and city when he is ready to hang up the pads. I dont want to be one of those teams. Even at 34 he can still be a threat maybe not as a #1. Just would leave a bad taste in my mouth if we did that. Not to mention it wouldnt be like when they held onto players like Carr, T Johnson, Okoye to long. This guy has given his all for this city and team. Let him decide when its time.

This has a lot to do with how well a talented player admits it when the talent starts eroding. Through it all, AJ has held out for one, single day, just to prove a point once. I don't think he'll be a problem.

AngryNateFTW
05-27-2013, 11:31 AM
If not for Russel Wilson, RG3, & Collin Kaepernick going off, I wonder if so many people would be down on Schaub.

Yes, he played poorly at the end of the season. But he's coming off a goofy surgery, we knew he wasn't going to be the same guy. & of the 7 years he's been the Texans QB, he's done a pretty good job.

Not a great job. There's been a few critics of Schaub's from day one, with cause & that few has steadily grown into a cadre of sorts. But pretty good.


But even in that two month period, there were some well thrown balls that just weren't caught. We had colossal failures in both the run game & the defense.

I understand wanting to ramp up the effort to find Schaub's replacement, but to outright cut him right now with what we've got behind him just doesn't make sense. Even with the promise of "franchise" QBs in the upcoming draft, just doesn't make sense.


Russell Wilson was a part of this class last year which had potential NFL talent at the QB position and the Texans didn't do anything except sign Keenum as an UDFA.

Andrew Luck, RG3, Tannehill, R.Wilson, Nick Foles played well as the season progressed, and even Kirk Cousins did well when RG3 was hurt.

We could have had some of that talent in later rounds. (Wilson 3rd round, and Cousins 4th round)

Insideop
05-27-2013, 12:00 PM
This is what happens when your team drafts too well. The Texans have done a good job of building through the draft but now have to make some tough decisions on who to keep and who let go.

I'm not at all against letting Schaub go after next season but I really hope AJ gets a better fate than being a salary cap casualty. He's been the most important part of this team for 10 years. I hope he retires a Texan.

I'm afraid that, with the cap situation in the NFL the way it is, all teams, especially the contending ones, are faced with with making "tough decisions." The teams that will contend year in and year out will be the ones that consistently draft well, manage their cap by making "tough decisions," and don't go after high priced or big name FA's, unless they are willing to come at a lower price for the chance to win a title. So far the Texans seem to be following this pattern, at least for the past few years. I know there has been much debate on this MB about Rick Smith and his drafts, but since 2009 he has, to me anyway, consistently drafted well. And that is the key, I think, to sustaining a good team and having a chance to win titles.

As for AJ, I hope he retires a Texan too, and I hope he wins at least 1 SB with them. But, it's rare when something like that happens. Earl never won a SB and didn't get to retire an Oiler. Akeem did win 2 titles with the Rockets but even he didn't get to retire as one. Bagwell and Biggio spent their whole careers with the Stros but never won a WS. A lot has to go right for it to happen. I hope it does for AJ.

houstonspartan
05-27-2013, 01:22 PM
This is what happens when your team drafts too well. The Texans have done a good job of building through the draft but now have to make some tough decisions on who to keep and who let go.



Yep. Good drafts are very important. But, the catch is, a few years down the road, those rookies will be looking for lucrative second contracts. It's a nice problem to have compared to where we were. I'm just saying that with drafting success comes really, really touch choices. Some players we like, like James Casey, we may not be able to keep.

beerlover
05-27-2013, 02:39 PM
FO stability driving consistent winning results while entertaining, satisfying & rewarding its loyal fan base is key. I'm big as anyone here in draft forums but that is just one cornerstone of Texans future success. Ownership & Rick Smith are pretty set in stone the last key component is yet to be fully proved. Kubiak future & that of Texans is leveraged on Matt Schaub skill & ability to ascend a higher level of performance than I foresee possible (ye of little faith).

thunderkyss
05-27-2013, 03:13 PM
Russell Wilson was a part of this class last year which had potential NFL talent at the QB position and the Texans didn't do anything except sign Keenum as an UDFA.

Andrew Luck, RG3, Tannehill, R.Wilson, Nick Foles played well as the season progressed, and even Kirk Cousins did well when RG3 was hurt.

We could have had some of that talent in later rounds. (Wilson 3rd round, and Cousins 4th round)

You missed my point entirely.

How many QBs did Indy, Washington, Seattle, or Philly draft in the 3rd or earlier rounds in 2013?

None, because they have their QBs.

& We've got ours. In 2012, we had ours. If we'd have drafted Russell Wilson, or Nick Foles, all we would have seen was them playing with our scrubs, scrubs in the preseason. & we'd still think we don't have enough talent behind Schaub.

We won 11 games in 2011, 13 games in 2012, we've only had 2 losing seasons since 2006. I know half of us believe that is due to the blind pig & the acorn theory, but maybe these guys know what they are doing.

Again, it is my opinion. Had we drafted Foles or Wilson, they would currently be our third QB & we'd have seen as much of them as we've seen of Keenum, even though we would have had to use a roster spot to keep them on the 53 & not the PS.

badboy
05-27-2013, 03:47 PM
I have posted many times before that i would not be surprised to see Schaub gone after 2014. I think his current deal is a beautifully handcrafted contract allowing him three years (now two) to bring home SB trophy. I am actually more focused on Myers (31) contract than AJs. He can be gone after this season with only a $4m hit and after '14 with $2m cap hit. Hopefully Ben Jones will move back to center and get some experience.

Antonio Smith's $9.5m cap hit will be gone after this season.

Wade Smith $3.75 m cap hit will be gone.

$13.25 is more than enough to resign Cushing if we want him. Until we know he is Cushing of old, I have a ? placed beside his name.

When Watt's deal is up after 2014, OD is gone saving $6.25 m
Manning's $6m is gone . Ed Reed's $5.33 should be gone (cap hit about $1m).
Brooks Reed $1.5m will be gone. Total = about $18m saved.

We just need to keep drafting well.

maddogmrb
05-27-2013, 10:54 PM
All for it EXCEPT the cutting AJ part, sure the guy is getting older and his production will decline a bit BUT with all he has done for this team and how he has been faithful to this city by putting the team first i do not want to see AJ cut EVER. I believe he should leave the team and city when he is ready to hang up the pads. I dont want to be one of those teams. Even at 34 he can still be a threat maybe not as a #1. Just would leave a bad taste in my mouth if we did that. Not to mention it wouldnt be like when they held onto players like Carr, T Johnson, Okoye to long. This guy has given his all for this city and team. Let him decide when its time.

I used to agree 100% with you .... but these guys make SO much $$$ ... it's not like he will go into the poor house if he gets cuts ... they just need to do it with class and honoring his contribution to the team. Have to do what's best overall for the team...

Corrosion
05-27-2013, 11:06 PM
FO stability driving consistent winning results while entertaining, satisfying & rewarding its loyal fan base is key. I'm big as anyone here in draft forums but that is just one cornerstone of Texans future success. Ownership & Rick Smith are pretty set in stone the last key component is yet to be fully proved. Kubiak future & that of Texans is leveraged on Matt Schaub skill & ability to ascend a higher level of performance than I foresee possible (ye of little faith).

Kubiak and Schaub are Not joined at the hip.

Considering the performance Kubiak got out of Schaub despite his limitations ..... I think he's more than earned an opportunity beyond Schaub's tenure as a Texan.

I know - Schaub sux and Kubiak is too conservative ....

Norg
05-29-2013, 07:02 PM
I guess the plan is to win the Superbowl in 2 years when it comes to Houston ..... :P


has for now well I got a question


Does anyone here think the Texans can win the SUperbowl this year ..??????

chenjy9
05-29-2013, 07:18 PM
I guess the plan is to win the Superbowl in 2 years when it comes to Houston ..... :P


has for now well I got a question


Does anyone here think the Texans can win the SUperbowl this year ..??????

Depends on which Schaub we get; the one from before the foot injury or the loser who couldn't buy us a passing TD in the later part of the season. For us to win a SB next year a lot of stars have to align perfectly:

- Schaub DOES NOT EFF UP!!!
- Cushing stays healthy and does not miss where he left off
- Foster beasts in the playoffs
- Andre beasts in the playoffs
- JJ Watt continues to beast in the playoffs

paycheck71
05-29-2013, 10:49 PM
Does anyone here think the Texans can win the SUperbowl this year ..??????

Short answer is yes. There is a handful of teams, and the Texans should be among them this year, that will be in the conversation.

The long answer is, it depends on many factors. Besides being good, a team has to get fairly lucky to win the Superbowl.

If the Texans don't lose too many key contributors to injuries, they'll have a better shot.
If the ball bounces their way more often than their opponents', they'll have a better chance.
If the refs don't make too many costly mistakes against the Texans, they'll have a better chance.
Oh, and all of that is on top of everybody on the team doing their job every week, from coaches game planning, to players executing.

There are probably many other factors out of the coaches' and players' control that will affect their chances. IMO, the best effort on everyone's part only gives you the best opportunity to win. You need a few lucky breaks along the way and to get hot at the right time. It seems to happen almost every year, Ravens last year (lucky to beat Denver and got hot at the right time), NYG the year before (barely made the playoffs, then got hot), and then GB the year before (barely made the playoffs but started clicking at the right time).

I'm not saying any of this to diminish the work the team does. That is obviously necessary and important. And, as those things ARE in your control, getting them right is your job, and doing a good job improves your chance for a win.

thunderkyss
05-29-2013, 11:05 PM
Short answer is yes. There is a handful of teams, and the Texans should be among them this year, that will be in the conversation.

The long answer is, it depends on many factors. Besides being good, a team has to get fairly lucky to win the Superbowl.

If the Texans don't lose too many key contributors to injuries, they'll have a better shot.

I can only think of two games last year, where I said, "We kicked their a55!!!" Denver & Baltimore. Other than that, our Texans were a mere shadow of themselves, but through the first 12 weeks of the season they were thought to be the best team in the NFL.

If we can get that OL working the way Kubiak wants it to work I think we can work through a lot of those things we think "has" to happen & still win a Super Bowl.

I know people didn't like it when we went "conservative" or when Kubiak "turtled" up. But I don't think he was trying to be conservative. I think he wants this to be a team that can impose it's will on the other team, offensively as well as defensively. & when we can run the ball the way we should, it opens up the offense.

I think he's stubborn for it & whatever, but whatever. We'll win a SuperBowl & I think it is highly possible we can win it all in 2013.

ChampionTexan
05-30-2013, 04:34 PM
Antonio Smith could be a part of the Texans future a couple of years down the road:
Tania Ganguli ‏@taniaganguli

Antonio Smith said he's told #Texans he wants to spend the rest of his career in Houston. Said team told him they're open to an extension.

drs23
05-30-2013, 04:44 PM
Antonio Smith could be a part of the Texans future a couple of years down the road:

YEA! Cap room for Cush! And not a bad way to get there. Mr. Smiff has been ballin' these past couple of seasons and I don't see him really dropping off.

thunderkyss
05-30-2013, 05:57 PM
YEA! Cap room for Cush! And not a bad way to get there. Mr. Smiff has been ballin' these past couple of seasons and I don't see him really dropping off.

Agreed. 2011 was a career for him. 2012 was a career year as well. & it's not like he waited until a contract year to show up. Wade's got him doing what he likes to do & he's eating it up.

Love his attitude, serious when he has to be, willing to lighten up when needed, & he'll bust your a55 if you cross the line, penalty or no.

If we can keep him on the dole, I don't doubt he'll continue to give us 120%

The old man's been to the SuperBowl once, I'm sure he's biting (champing??) at the bit to get there again & finish the job this time.

The Pencil Neck
05-30-2013, 07:03 PM
Does anyone here think the Texans can win the SUperbowl this year ..??????

Yes. I do.

DocBar
05-30-2013, 09:09 PM
I guess the plan is to win the Superbowl in 2 years when it comes to Houston ..... :P


has for now well I got a question


Does anyone here think the Texans can win the SUperbowl this year ..?????? I see that math still isn't your strong suit! :spit:

The next Super Bowl will be in 2014. Houston hosts the game in 2017. How do you get 2 years, or even 2 seasons out of that? :foottap:

Just messin with ya, Norg.

Yes, I do think the Texans can win a Super Bowl this year. We'll need to get some luck and a break from the injury bug, though. That bug has been brutal for a few years now.