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CloakNNNdagger
05-13-2013, 09:01 AM
Wasn't really sure in which section to place this. But it looks at the AFC South 2010 Draft picks, and how they have turned out using some of their own interesting data analysis.

Two weeks removed from the Texans acquiring DeAndre Hopkins in the first round, we now enter that time of the season where things are a little stiff as far as news goes. Luckily, the guys over at WithTheFirstPick.com [CLICK HERE FOR EXPLANATION OF GRADING PROCESS] (http://withthefirstpick.com/2013/05/06/grading-the-nfl-draft-an-explanation/) have taken the time to keep the draft stories coming, by taking a look at the Houston Texans 2010 selections, which featured Kareem Jackson and Ben Tate as the opening round picks.

Houston Texans

Player/School/Position/Pick(Rd)/Raw Score/Weighted Score/Draft Value

Kareem Jackson/ Alabama/ CB/ 20(1)/ 18.94/ 19.91/ 2.00
Ben Tate Auburn/ RB/ 58(2)/ 6.19/ 7.10/ -104.00
Earl Mitchell/ Arizona/ DT/ 81(3)/ 10.43/ 12.58/ -24.00
Darryl Sharpton/ Miami/ (FL)/ LB/ 102(4)/ 9.70/ 12.22/ -15.00
Garrett Graham/ Wisconsin/ TE/ 118(4)/ 8.69/ 11.31/ -10.00
Sherrick McManis/ Northwestern/ CB 144(5) 7.29/ 9.97/ -5.00
Shelley Smith/ Colorado State/ G/ 187(6)/ 8.46/ 12.49/ 57.00
Trindon Holliday/ LSU/ KR/ 197(6)/ 2.29/ 3.44/ -10.00
Dorin Dickerson/ Pittsburgh/ TE/ 227(7)/ 1.46/ 2.30/ 16.00

Total Raw Score: 73.45 (16th)
Total Weighted Score: 91.33 (17th)
Average Raw Score: 8.16 (21st)
Average Weighted Score: 10.15 (21st)
Total Draft Value: -93 (22nd)
Average Draft Value: -10.33 (21st)

Analysis: With the 20th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans selected Kareem Jackson out of Alabama and has been rewarded with three seasons of steady play and starter. There’s not much else you can expect out of a mid to late first round pick. The second round selection of Ben Tate, however, has not lived up to expectations. Due to injuries and ineffectiveness, coupled with the emergence of un-drafted sensation Arian Foster, Tate has only appeared in 26 games in three seasons, two of them as a starter. A part time and often injured running back in the second round is the epitome of bad value. Earl Mitchell has been a role player. Darryl Sharpton has struggled with injuries and is hoping to be completely healthy for the first time. None of the later round picks are with the team any longer. A healthy Sharpton would go a long way in making this draft look a lot better. But as of now, beyond Jackson, there is very little value.

Comment: It’s hard not to agree with the analysis here, especially on Ben Tate. By the time Tate came in, the starting role was shaping up as Arian Foster’s for the long haul, and the very next season he went on to rush for 1,224-yards while Tate floundered for just 942. Tate is a solid backup though, and is averaging 4.3 yards a carry after limited time on the field last year.

As for Kareem Jackson, he has by far become the Texans’ best pick of the year. Last season Jackson started in 15 games, and has become a part of the Jonathan Joseph and Brice McCain rotation. He had a career high four interceptions last year, and played a big part in the Texans’ win over the Broncos last season.

Wrapping it up, it’s kind of funny looking at this draft. At the time it appeared promising, especially with another running back coming in to maybe challenge Foster, but Jackson’s emergence can be listed as one of few positives. Earl Mitchell has started in only a few games recently, but is still a big part of the defensive line. Unfortunately Darryl Sharpton’s relationship with the injured reserve list thanks to a hip injury remains a problem.

It will be interesting to see what is made of this year’s draft come three year’s time. At the moment, Hopkins, D.J. Swearinger and Alan Bonner look to be potential standouts.

HOW WE COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE AFC SOUTH (http://withthefirstpick.com/2013/05/08/grading-the-2010-nfl-draft-afc-south/)

The Pencil Neck
05-13-2013, 11:17 AM
Wasn't really sure in which section to place this. But it looks at the AFC South 2010 Draft picks, and how they have turned out using some of their own interesting data analysis.



HOW WE COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE AFC SOUTH (http://withthefirstpick.com/2013/05/08/grading-the-2010-nfl-draft-afc-south/)

They talk about Jackson, Tate, Mitchell, and Sharpton. Then they say...

None of the later round picks are with the team any longer.


So. They missed Garrett Graham?

Personally, I don't see Tate as a complete fail. He's given us a lot of good backup minutes. While he has been injured a lot more than I would have liked, I still see him as a good pick.

We'll see with Mitchell this year. If he steps up and starts like they expect him to, then that help out this draft.

I think we drafted a bit better than they do.

Hervoyel
05-13-2013, 11:45 AM
So let me get this straight, Tate "floundered" to 942 yards on a team where another back was on his way to 1.224 yards? So coming within 58 yards of being the teams second 1,000 yard back is floundering?

Tate has been a fine selection with the sole exception of his injuries which have been troublesome admittedly. That first season he came back after missing his rookie year though, we were all grinning ear to ear over the two-headed monster the Texans had on their hands.

michaelm
05-13-2013, 12:11 PM
So let me get this straight, Tate "floundered" to 942 yards on a team where another back was on his way to 1.224 yards? So coming within 58 yards of being the teams second 1,000 yard back is floundering?

Tate has been a fine selection with the sole exception of his injuries which have been troublesome admittedly. That first season he came back after missing his rookie year though, we were all grinning ear to ear over the two-headed monster the Texans had on their hands.

This was my reaction, almost verbatim.

beerlover
05-13-2013, 12:27 PM
It's a legit outside viewpoint that fans close to situation can easily pick apart. As fans of our team (Texans) probably don't know a lot about the other 31 NFL teams so it has to be taken with a grain of salt, think of a bell curve, not so much an actual measurement as it is a generalization across the league.

a final grade, IMO, is yet to be determined, that is how Tate comes back this season in his contract year & will Texans be able to lock down KJ long term. those are big questions moving forward so its still too early to tell, it remains fluid :chef:

rolyat93
05-13-2013, 02:47 PM
I think KJ was a little better than "steady and a starter" last year.

But I can see if he's grading his career as a whole so far rather than just the player he is now.

tru80texan
05-13-2013, 03:10 PM
I think KJ was a little better than "steady and a starter" last year.

But I can see if he's grading his career as a whole so far rather than just the player he is now.

I think that it is fair to judge Kareem's career as a whole as opposed to only referring to last season only because let's be honest, last season was the only season we could without a doubt use the words "steady & a starter" to describe him thus far. Hopefully he continues to progress & grow on last seasons improvements in his play.

Insideop
05-13-2013, 03:27 PM
They talk about Jackson, Tate, Mitchell, and Sharpton. Then they say...



So. They missed Garrett Graham?

Personally, I don't see Tate as a complete fail. He's given us a lot of good backup minutes. While he has been injured a lot more than I would have liked, I still see him as a good pick.

We'll see with Mitchell this year. If he steps up and starts like they expect him to, then that help out this draft.

I think we drafted a bit better than they do.

Yeah, they really dropped the ball missing Graham. I know he didn't play for the first 2 years, but this past year he was an integral part of the offense and sorely missed against the Pats when he was injured.

As for Mitchell, I think he was starting and getting most of the playing time during the last part of the season when Cody was hurt. I think he's a solid player that has done well for his size and what they ask him to do. I'm curious to see if the Texans go with 2 NT's or 3, and who they cut. I noticed Ra'Shon Harris is back on the Texans Roster. I thought he was let go a long time ago. My guess is they keep Mitchell, Terrell McClain, and Chris Jones, and have Hunter back on the PS. If Jones proves himself quickly, they could cut McClain and go with 2 NT's

Dutchrudder
05-13-2013, 03:32 PM
They talk about Jackson, Tate, Mitchell, and Sharpton. Then they say...



So. They missed Garrett Graham?

Personally, I don't see Tate as a complete fail. He's given us a lot of good backup minutes. While he has been injured a lot more than I would have liked, I still see him as a good pick.

We'll see with Mitchell this year. If he steps up and starts like they expect him to, then that help out this draft.

I think we drafted a bit better than they do.

"Late Round" usually means 5-7th round picks. Mid Round 3-4 (sometimes 5), and early rounds 1-2. It's not exactly set in stone.

dc_txtech
05-13-2013, 07:58 PM
"Late Round" usually means 5-7th round picks. Mid Round 3-4 (sometimes 5), and early rounds 1-2. It's not exactly set in stone.

Graham was a 4th round pick. Pretty sure the author just forgot about him.

Dutchrudder
05-14-2013, 10:38 AM
Graham was a 4th round pick. Pretty sure the author just forgot about him.

I think he just didn't have anything to say about him because Graham has done little since he's been drafted. Dude has been here 3 years and has 29 catches. We got 1 starter, and a couple depth guys out of 9 picks. Whoop dee ****in doo.

In the previous sentence the author talks about Sharpton and him needing to stay healthy, then says the later round picks aren't on the team. Well Sharpton was a 4th round pick, same round as Graham, so you could infer he was talking about rounds beyond the fourth... or you could just pick a nit in their analysis, and disregard the fact that they are giving a relatively objective view of our team's middling draft.

I know the sunshine pumpers aren't gonna like it, but this draft is another example of why Rick Smith is an average GM. A guy like Holliday really could have helped make this draft better if we had a good special teams unit and coach around them, but instead we keep going with the same old song and dance of Gary's friends. We kind of knew what we had in Holliday during his second year, but obviously failed to capitalize on it. Now he's in Denver (an AFCC contender no less) and we know exactly what we had in him. We have glaring issues at special teams and nothing is being done to fix it, so look for them to draft another returner next year cause that's obviously the problem!

thunderkyss
05-14-2013, 01:41 PM
It's a legit outside viewpoint that fans close to situation can easily pick apart. As fans of our team (Texans) probably don't know a lot about the other 31 NFL teams so it has to be taken with a grain of salt, think of a bell curve, not so much an actual measurement as it is a generalization across the league.



I agree. I also look at it like, "What if" Ben Tate was healthy last season & produced like he did in 2011?"

No doubt there were issues with the line in front of him, but if he could have been healthy & picked up a couple of those first downs... if he broke a couple of big runs & focused the defense's attention on the backfield.. or just pushing Foster (I think Foster really enjoyed the competition).

We won 13 games with a gimpTate, just imagine what we could have done with the guy we want him to be.

76Texan
05-14-2013, 02:06 PM
So the Colts is 7th with only one guy to speak of.
And the guy also saw reduced playing time according to the same article.

:thinking:

Dutchrudder
05-14-2013, 04:13 PM
So the Colts is 7th with only one guy to speak of.
And the guy also saw reduced playing time according to the same article.

:thinking:

Depends on which one you look at:

Total Raw Score: 71.18 (17th)
Total Weighted Score: 96.94 (15th)
Average Raw Score: 8.90 (17th)
Average Weighted Score: 12.12 (12th)
Total Draft Value: +165 (7th)
Average Draft Value: +20.63 (7th)

I would go with Weighted Scores, but that's just me. Then again, they are grading players with production on other teams, so just because they have a positive score doesn't mean it was earned with the team that drafted them.

Insideop
05-15-2013, 11:36 AM
I think he just didn't have anything to say about him because Graham has done little since he's been drafted. Dude has been here 3 years and has 29 catches. We got 1 starter, and a couple depth guys out of 9 picks. Whoop dee ****in doo.

In the previous sentence the author talks about Sharpton and him needing to stay healthy, then says the later round picks aren't on the team. Well Sharpton was a 4th round pick, same round as Graham, so you could infer he was talking about rounds beyond the fourth... or you could just pick a nit in their analysis, and disregard the fact that they are giving a relatively objective view of our team's middling draft.

I know the sunshine pumpers aren't gonna like it, but this draft is another example of why Rick Smith is an average GM. A guy like Holliday really could have helped make this draft better if we had a good special teams unit and coach around them, but instead we keep going with the same old song and dance of Gary's friends. We kind of knew what we had in Holliday during his second year, but obviously failed to capitalize on it. Now he's in Denver (an AFCC contender no less) and we know exactly what we had in him. We have glaring issues at special teams and nothing is being done to fix it, so look for them to draft another returner next year cause that's obviously the problem!

Dutch, I have to say some of your statements are misleading.

First, you say Graham only has 29 catches in 3 years, but what you fail to mention is that he had 28 of those last year with 269 yards and 3 TD's in his 1st year as the 2nd TE. He had Dreessen and Casey in front of him his 1st 2 years, so he wasn't going to see the field much. They're gone now, so he'll be used a lot more and will probably be the #1 TE when OD's contract is up.

Second, you say we got 1 starter and a couple of depth guys out of that draft. That's not really true. Mitchell is the starting NT now and Sharpton may be the other starting ILB next to Cushing if he's healthy. Also, Graham is considered a starter in 2 TE sets which the Texans play a lot of.

Third, if you are implying that Marciano is one of "Gary's friends" and was hired by Gary you would be wrong. Marciano was not hired by Gary or Rick Smith. He was here before both and was kept because he was a good ST coach. True, he had a bad year last year, and cutting Holliday didn't help. But, Marciano wanted to keep Holliday and I think Gary did too, but when Cush went down they had to find help at ILB and Holliday became expendable as the 6th WR. I think they know what the problem is on ST's (blocking and covering) and we should see much improvement this season. If not, then I think Marciano will be gone.

You can call me a "sunshine pumper" if you want :) but I think Smith, Kubes, and now Phillips have done pretty well drafting. Smith has come a long way since 2007 drafting Okoye, and I think he'll get better and better. Since 07, all of his 1st rounders are solid starters, and 3 of them are Pro-Bowlers. And, if you think the Texans 2010 draft was bad just look at the rest of the division with the Colts, Jags, and Tits. Their 2010 drafts look horrible. And by the way, all of the Texans picks from 2010 are still in the league; McManis is at Chicago (Traded for Tyler Clutts), Shelley Smith is at St Louis, Holliday, of course, is at Denver, and Dorin Dickerson is at Buffalo.

thunderkyss
05-15-2013, 01:38 PM
I think Rick Smith is aiight. I'm not a big fan.

But I think we have a great team, with some great talent.

I think we've lost some great talent as well. I don't know if Smith has hit any more or less than other GMs, I don't know that he's missed any more or less either.

But I do feel we're on the short track to a championship. But I credit Kubiak for that more than Smith.

Dutchrudder
05-15-2013, 02:19 PM
First, you say Graham only has 29 catches in 3 years, but what you fail to mention is that he had 28 of those last year with 269 yards and 3 TD's in his 1st year as the 2nd TE. He had Dreessen and Casey in front of him his 1st 2 years, so he wasn't going to see the field much. They're gone now, so he'll be used a lot more and will probably be the #1 TE when OD's contract is up.

In 3 years he has 29 catches. There is nothing misleading about that, it's a fact. Yeah, we didn't use him much his first two years, which is surprising for a 4th round pick, don't ya think? And don't you think the guys in the OP article are trying to account for things like production, games started, TDs, and turnovers when grading these players? Fact is Graham hasn't done much, one year of production is not a lot for a 4th rounder.

Second, you say we got 1 starter and a couple of depth guys out of that draft. That's not really true. Mitchell is the starting NT now and Sharpton may be the other starting ILB next to Cushing if he's healthy. Also, Graham is considered a starter in 2 TE sets which the Texans play a lot of.

And in 5 WR sets Devier Posey, Keyshawn Martin and Lestar Jean were starters last year! Woohoo!

Keep on movin' those goal posts...

Third, if you are implying that Marciano is one of "Gary's friends" and was hired by Gary you would be wrong. Marciano was not hired by Gary or Rick Smith. He was here before both and was kept because he was a good ST coach. True, he had a bad year last year, and cutting Holliday didn't help. But, Marciano wanted to keep Holliday and I think Gary did too, but when Cush went down they had to find help at ILB and Holliday became expendable as the 6th WR. I think they know what the problem is on ST's (blocking and covering) and we should see much improvement this season. If not, then I think Marciano will be gone.

Marciano is clearly not here for his coaching talent any longer, so I can only assume it's because he's buddies with Gary and company. It is an assumption on my part, but I honestly can't think of a practical reason why Joe is still employed. He should have been replaced after this piss poor season and the embarrassing lack of production from apparently talented returners in Holliday and Jones.

You can call me a "sunshine pumper" if you want :)

I will, thanks.

but I think Smith, Kubes, and now Phillips have done pretty well drafting. Smith has come a long way since 2007 drafting Okoye, and I think he'll get better and better. Since 07, all of his 1st rounders are solid starters, and 3 of them are Pro-Bowlers. And, if you think the Texans 2010 draft was bad just look at the rest of the division with the Colts, Jags, and Tits. Their 2010 drafts look horrible. And by the way, all of the Texans picks from 2010 are still in the league; McManis is at Chicago (Traded for Tyler Clutts), Shelley Smith is at St Louis, Holliday, of course, is at Denver, and Dorin Dickerson is at Buffalo.

mid·dling (mdlng, -ln) adj.
1. Of medium size, position, or quality.
2. Mediocre. See Synonyms at average.

I did not say the draft was terrible, I said it was another middling draft. Average, mediocre, ordinary, take your pick. For what the TEXANS got out of that draft, it ain't much. You can compare it to our division if you want, but there are 28 other teams in the NFL that stand in our way to success. If the best teams in the league keep drafting better than us, then we aren't gaining ground on anyone important.

thunderkyss
05-15-2013, 03:03 PM
Yeah, we didn't use him much his first two years, which is surprising for a 4th round pick, don't ya think? And don't you think the guys in the OP article are trying to account for things like production, games started, TDs, and turnovers when grading these players? Fact is Graham hasn't done much, one year of production is not a lot for a 4th rounder.


When you consider both Dressen & Casey got picked up with some healthy contracts...... not so much.

Guy was buried on the depth chart, but he wasn't behind crap players.

76Texan
05-15-2013, 03:36 PM
Depends on which one you look at:



I would go with Weighted Scores, but that's just me. Then again, they are grading players with production on other teams, so just because they have a positive score doesn't mean it was earned with the team that drafted them.

Well then Dutch, you should take into consideration players that the Texans drafted but ended up providing some value on another team, right?

76Texan
05-15-2013, 03:38 PM
When you consider both Dressen & Casey got picked up with some healthy contracts...... not so much.

Guy was buried on the depth chart, but he wasn't behind crap players.

And I would agree with TK here.

On top of that, a guy like Tate suffered an injury, besides getting buried in the depth chart.

Dutchrudder
05-15-2013, 03:50 PM
When you consider both Dressen & Casey got picked up with some healthy contracts...... not so much.

Guy was buried on the depth chart, but he wasn't behind crap players.

Reality does not equal potential. Graham didn't do jack in his first two years, so those count as zeros. I don't know what else to tell you, he showed potential this season, but that doesn't bring up the average all that much over the last 3 seasons. If you want to get into handicapping all the Texans picks due to lack of playing time or injuries incurred, then you would have to do the same for all the other teams.

Well then Dutch, you should take into consideration players that the Texans drafted but ended up providing some value on another team, right?

I don't have a clue what point you're trying to make here. I was trying to point out that just because a player has a positive score doesn't mean the positive production was made on the Texans.

76Texan
05-15-2013, 04:03 PM
Never mind Dutch; we're talking about different things.

thunderkyss
05-15-2013, 05:49 PM
Reality does not equal potential. Graham didn't do jack in his first two years, so those count as zeros. I don't know what else to tell you, he showed potential this season, but that doesn't bring up the average all that much over the last 3 seasons. If you want to get into handicapping all the Texans picks due to lack of playing time or injuries incurred, then you would have to do the same for all the other teams.



You're right. If we're grading the draft & comparing ours to other teams.. yeah, you can only score actual production.

However, I'm not going to say he was a bad pick. We lost Casey & we lost Dressen, I have no doubt we'll be fine, going forward with Graham. & that's what it's all about. The Texans building a highly competitive team.

When I look at a 4th rounder, I don't expect a whole lot in years 1 & 2. And though his catches, yards, & TDs weren't stellar, he was very productive in the run game. As a TE you've got to take that into account.