Welcome to Texans Talk. This is my first blog posting on here and I thought I'd start by discussing the NFL Draft since that wonderous event is but a week away. Come on in to read my thoughts on the Texans and other teams in the upcoming draft and share any comments you may have.

First of all I'd like to say greetings to everyone reading this and welcome to Texans Talk. I'll start off with a preview of the draft as I see things, since we are but one week from the start of the 2007 NFL Draft. Without further ado, here's my thoughts on what to expect or not expect out of the Texans in next weekend's draft:

What not to expect:
I don't expect the Texans to draft Levi Brown. I think it is pretty doubtful that he will even be available at #10 with Atlanta and Miami picking at #8 and #9 respectively. Atlanta is currently overhauling their blocking scheme and bringing in bigger, stronger linemen, which Levi is a great fit for, although Atlanta has some other needs too that they could address in the 1st round. If Adrian Peterson, Amobi Okoye, or Laron Landry are availalbe, each of them would receive strong consideration from the Falcons, which is unforunate because those should be our top 3 targets in this draft, and we allowed two extra teams to jump in front of us and get a shot at them. Miami could also really use a LT, and if Brown is available to them they could definitely take him. However, even if Brown is available to us, I don't see us taking him. To me, Brown is a RT in our system, and I don't think they would use the #10 pick on that. It also sounds like Charles Spencer is making decent progress, so with him, Eric Winston, Jordan Black, and even Ephraim Salaam already on the roster there isn't a ton of room for another player, unless that player can play both OT spots. Joe Staley is a much better fit for our system, although he is far from as good of a player at this point and probably shouldn't start from day 1, but still if the Texans are set on taking an OT in the 1st round they should trade down to the 16-19 area and go for Joe Staley, I don't see him going any higher than the Giants at #20 or the Broncos at #21, although unfortunately the Jags sit at #17 and the Titans are at #19 so two of those picks in that target range are division opponents which may hinder trade talks. I don't really expect the Texans to take an OT on the 1st day of the draft, but I could see them moving down and targeting Staley if they really like him.

Don't expect to see the Texans take Alan Branch, as I've seen in some mock drafts, although that has been less common lately. Branch is a big body and a pretty good athlete, but his stock has fallen a lot recently with a subpar pro day workout in which he looked out of shape, and many people already questioned his desire and work ethic prior to that. He is also much more of a gap clogger rather than a penetrator, so he would help the run defense but he does very little to improve our pass rush, and we already have one underachieving former 1st round DT on the roster that could find himself out of a job within a year. Branch is much better suited for a 3-4 where he can running lanes up front and draw double teams to allow LBs to get thru the gaps. Okoye would be a great fit for us, but at this point I doubt he falls to #10.

Don't be surprised to see:
The Texans trade down. In this draft, there are only 7-8 players that most people consider elite prospects, so moving down to #10 likely takes the Texans our of range to get any of them, so don't be surprised to see them move down if they can acquire a 2nd or high 3rd round pick or a veteran starter in return. A deal could be worked out in the next week or it could wait until draft day, but I would not be surprised at all to see the Texans move down in the 1st round. The optimal range would probably be somewhere between 16-20 where they have a good shot at Joe Staley or where the remaining WRs become a much better value. If the Patriots offer up the #24 and #28 picks, that would also be hard to turn down. There should also be some good defensive prospects available, but most of the upper echelon of those should be gone by the late teens.

The Texans spend another 1st round pick on defense. Other than a few top offensive players (Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, and the QBs), the good majority of other top prospects are on the defensive side of the ball. Additionally, the Texans main needs on offense is at WR and OLine, and unless Calvin Johnson or Joe Thomas miraculously fall to #10 no one else would be worth that pick, unless of course Adrian Peterson falls to #10. The Texans could use help at every level on the defensive side of the ball, and there should be several top options available at #10 at just about any position. Gaines Adams won't be available, Laron Landry will likely be gone, and Jamaal Anderson and Amobi Okoye are also pretty likely to be taken before #10, but even at that Reggie Nelson, Leon Hall, Darrelle Revis, and Patrick Willis will all be available that would be good picks there and would satisfy big needs.

General thoughts on the picks:
If Adrian Peterson, Amobi Okoye, or Laron Landry are available at the #10 pick then I think they have to be the choice, assuming the Texans don't try to trade down before the draft. I don't think any of the other elite picks (Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, or Gaines Adams) have any shot at making it down to #10, not that we'd take Quinn or Russell anyways. If Peterson, Okoye, and Landry are all gone, I could see Ted Ginn, Jamaal Anderson, Reggie Nelson, Leon Hall, or Darrelle Revis all being viable options at #10, although I would try to trade down a few picks at take the best player left among that group. If they move down into the 16-20 range, Joe Staley, Robert Meachem, Jarvis Moss and Adam Carriker could also start coming into play. I suspect the 1st round pick will end up being a defensive player, but that will just depending on who is the best player available when they end up picking.

As for the rest of their picks, I would not at all be surprised to see them use a 3rd or 4th round pick on a WR, assuming they don't take on in the 1st. There should be some big WRs with speed that fit what the team is looking for like Paul Williams, Jacoby Jones, or Jason Hill available in the 3rd or even 4th round. Despite Kubiak's apparent confidence in Kevin Walter being a starting WR, we need another option there who can challenge him for that starting spot or else be a better slot WR than what Jerome Mathis, David Anderson, etc. bring to the table.

I expect the Texans will take at least one OLineman in the draft, I doubt they take one 1st day unless a really good one falls to the 3rd round (Ryan Harris maybe) or they trade down for Joe Staley (which at this point I think is fairly doubtful). We won't be able to find an immediate starter in the later rounds, but we can add good depth that could develop into solid starters There should be some good fits to add to our depth in the 4th-6th rounds, Brandon Frye, Doug Free, Andy Alleman, Allen Barbre to name a few.

There are numerous defensive players that we could take in the mid rounds that could compete for a starting spot. Brian Robison, Dan Bazuin, Quinn Pitcock are a few DLinemen that should be available in the 3rd-4th rounds that could come in and possibly win a starting spot. HB Blades, Michael Okwo, Quincy Black, and Tim Shaw could all come in and compete for a LB position and should be available in the 4th round or later.

Jonathan Wade would be a very nice pick if he's available in the 3rd, which I have my doubts on. David Irons, Tanard Jackson, AJ Davis, and Gerald Alexander are all options at DB that could be found between the 3rd-5th rounds that could come in and compete for sme good playing time if not a starting spot.


I for one am ready for the draft to get here and see what we come away with. Hopefully this post has given you some insight into what to expect out of the draft, but the draft is hardly predictable. I'll wrap things up up with posting my 1st round mock:

1. Oakland - JaMarcus Russell (QB, LSU - 6'5.5", 265 lbs, 4.83 (at Pro Day))
Will also consider: Calvin Johnson. Calvin Johnson is the best player and probably the safest pick in this draft, but a QB is more worth the money and, unless they bring in a veteran QB and/or trade Randy Moss before the draft, JaMarcus has to be the pick.
2. Detroit - Joe Thomas (OT, Wisconsin - 6'6.5", 311 lbs, 4.92, 28 bench reps)
Will also consider: Calvin Johnson, Gaines Adams, Brady Quinn. I think they will end up trading this pick. Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and even Washington could get into a bidding war to move up for Calvin Johnson, and I think the Lions will draft him if necessary and hold him for ransom or even keep him, but for the sake of simplicity and assuming no trades, Joe Thomas is the next most talented and risk-free pick and gives them a bookend LT to team with Jeff Backus and help solidify their OLine.
3. Cleveland - Adrian Peterson (RB, Oklahoma - 6'1.5", 217 lbs, 4.40)
Will also consider: Brady Quinn, Calvin Johnson, JaMarcus Russell (if available), Joe Thomas (if available). Brady Quinn will be a very strong option as they need an improvement at the QB position and he is a local product, but I think Peterson is too good to pass up here. Taking Quinn and starting him pretty early could buy Crennel another year or two of grace since he hasn't managed to turn the team around yet. If the Raiders take Calvin and JaMarcus Russell falls here I think they take him. Calvin Johnson is another definite possibility if he lasts this long as their receiving core isn't anything special and he's a solid blocker that can help open running lanes on the edges. If Joe Thomas is available he could be an option as well.
4. Tampa Bay - Calvin Johnson (WR, Georgia Tech - 6'5", 239 lbs, 4.35)
Will also consider: Amobi Okoye, Gaines Adams (but only if Calvin Johnson isn't available). This is an easy pick for them if he's available here. In reality I think they'll end up having to trade up for him but if they can't come up with the right price they'll end up having to choose between Quinn, Adams, and Okoye. I don't think they'll take Quinn, they have Simms and Garcia to battle for the spot now and Gruden is in the hot seat and can't wait around to develop a QB. Contrary to the Browns possible situation I don't think it would buy him any more time as he's been in Tampa longer without accomplishing a whole lot and has a better QB core already. That leaves Adams and Okoye which both would satisfy a need. Adams is
probably considered a better value, but I think DT is a slightly bigger need and Gruden reportedly has fallen for Okoye after coaching him at the Senior Bowl, so I think he would get the nod if Calvin isn't here.
5. Arizona - Gaines Adams (DE, Clemson - 6"4.5", 258 lbs, 4.64, 21 bench reps)
Will also consider: Levi Brown, Laron Landry, Joe Thomas (if available), Adrian Peterson (if available). The Cards would love to have Joe Thomas fall here, but if he's gone then Gaines Adams fills a big need and will likely get the nod. Laron Landry or Levi Brown could be an option, but I think it's too high for both of them. If Adrian Peterson falls he could definitely be an option. They just paid Edgerrin James a lot of money last year but he's getting older, Whisenhunt will want to run the ball a lot more next year, and he comes from a team that frequently used a 2-RB system, so Peterson could definitely be an option if available.
6. Washington - Amobi Okoye (DT, Louisville - 6'2", 302 lbs, 5.06 (4.88 at Pro Day), 29 bench press reps)
Will also consider: Laron Landry, Jamaal Anderson, Leon Hall. The Redskins have a lot of holes to fix. They don't have their 2nd-4th round picks but they have never been afraid to trade off whatever it takes to get their guy (hence they are missing those three picks this year), so if they really like Calvin I could see them shipping a set of future picks and/or a player to move up for Calvin. They could also move down to acquire extra picks. If they don't make a move up or down, their DLine is their biggest need. Gaines Adams would be nice if available, but Okoye can provide good pass rush from the DT slot, which would be a nice addition to the league's worst pass rush. Okoye also will help clog running lanes too, which would be a welcome help to the league's 27th ranked run defense.
7. Minnesota - Jamaal Anderson (DE, Arkansas - 6'5.5", 288 lbs, 4.77 (at Pro Day), 22 bench press reps)
Will also consider: Laron Landry, Brady Quinn, Adrian Peterson (if available). I've seen a lot of people give them Brady Quinn and he would be difficult to pass up at #7, but at the same time they traded back into the 2nd round to draft Tarvaris Jackson last year and he didn't get much of a chance to prove or disprove himself last year. I just don't see them giving up on him yet. A lot of people won't value Anderson this high and he's fairly raw at this point, but he has some serious physical gifts and Kenechi Udeze started all 16 games for them last year without registering a single sack, so DE is a huge need. If Peterson falls he could be an option, but with Chester Taylor already on the roster and running Brad Childress' offense I don't see adding RB depth as that big of a need, same with WR although they do need to upgrade that group as well.
8. Atlanta (from Houston) - Levi Brown (OT, Penn St. - 6'5.5", 323 lbs, 5.39, 31 bench reps)
Will also consider: Laron Landry, Adrian Peterson (if available), Jamaal Anderson (if available). The Falcons are overhauling their OLine and blocking scheme. Levi Brown gives them a solid LT prospect and a very good fit for the scheme they are trying to implement. Laron Landry is a definite option as the have a big hole at FS. Peterson would be a definite option if available, and if Okoye was available he'd fill a big need and Petrino would likely be quick to re-unite himself with the 19 year old phenom that he coached for the last 4 years, but with both of them gone I think Brown gets the nod over Landry.
9. Miami - Brady Quinn (QB, Notre Dame - 6'3.5", 232 lbs, 4.77 (at Pro Day))
Will also consider: Laron Landry, Alan Branch, Adam Carriker, Ted Ginn. Cam Cameron is trying to trade for Trent Green and could be dumping Daunte Culpepper in the near future. To say the least, that leaves their QB situation in limbo. Quinn is a great value here and is just the type of QB that Cameron would like in his system. Levi Brown (if available), Alan Branch, and Adam Carriker could be options, but Quinn is too much to pass up.
10. Houston (from Atlanta) - Laron Landry (S, LSU - 6'0.5", 213 lbs, 4.35)
Will also consider: Leon Hall, Ted Ginn, Adrian Peterson (if available), Amobi Okoye (if available), Jamaal Anderson (if available). I have some doubts that he will end up being available here, but if he is the Texans will be quick to grab him and add an instant starter and playmaker into their secondary. Peterson and Okoye would be definite options if available, but with both of them gone Landry is the lone remaining elite prospect.
11. San Francisco - Patrick Willis (LB, Mississippi - 6'1", 242 lbs, 4.51 (4.37 at Pro Day), 22 bench press reps)
Will also consider: Adam Carriker, Alan Branch, Reggie Nelson, Ted Ginn, Leon Hall. They could look to boost their DLine with Carriker or Branch, but Willis is a dynamite ILB prospect for them and Mike Nolan grew to really like him at the Senior Bowl, so I think he gets the nod here. WR is also an option, but none of them are worth this pick and in such a deep crop they can address that later.
12. Buffalo - Marshawn Lynch (RB, California - 5'11", 215 lbs, 4.46)
Will also consider: Leon Hall, Alan Branch, Patrick Willis (if available). They would love it if Okoye or Willis were available and Leon Hall or Darrelle Revis are also strong options, but unless they find a veteran RB in the next week that is too big of a need to ignore here.
13. St. Louis - Leon Hall (CB, Michigan - 5'11", 193 lbs, 4.39)
Will also consider: Adam Carriker, Alan Branch, Lawrence Timmons, Patrick Willis (if available), Jamaal Anderson (if available). Even after taking Tye Hill in the 1st round last year they are weak in the secondary, especially at CB. Their DLine is also pretty questionable so Carriker or Branch could be options, but I think Leon Hall is the best prospect among them and will get the nod.
14. Carolina - Reggie Nelson (S, Florida - 5'11.5", 198 lbs, 4.48 (4.35 at Pro Day))
Will also consider: Greg Olsen, Lawrence Timmons, Patrick Willis (if available). Greg Olsen would fill a need as well, but FS is also a big weakness and Nelson is too valuable of a pick for them to pass up here.
15. Pittsburgh - Adam Carriker (DE, Nebraska - 6'6", 296 lbs, 4.90 (4.72 at Pro Day), 33 bench press reps)
Will also consider: Darrelle Revis, Lawrence Timmons, Ted Ginn, Jarvis Moss, Leon Hall (if available). The Steelers have a couple areas of need on defense, but Carriker is probably the best prospect available for them and is a versatile player that can play DE in their current 3-4 defense or could play DE or DT if they eventually switch over to a 4-3 cover 2 scheme that Tomlin has run in the recent past.
16. Green Bay - Greg Olsen (TE, Miami - 6'6", 254 lbs, 4.51, 23 bench reps)
Will also consider: Ted Ginn, Robert Meachem, Jarvis Moss, Marshawn Lynch (if available). The Packers can use playmakers in every level of their offense. With both 1st round RBs gone they will turn to Olsen vs. the WRs. I think they are more set at WR, plus they can find good WR prospects in the next couple rounds whereas TE talent is quite thin, so they grab Olsen to add a threat up the seams.
17. Jacksonville - Jarvis Moss (DE, Florida - 6'6.5", 250 lbs, 4.70, 16 bench press reps)
Will also consider: Lawrence Timmons, Paul Posluszny, Darrelle Revis, Reggie Nelson (if available). The Jags will be looking for the best defensive player here. They could use more depth at WR or QB, but WR is deep in this draft and they have invested recent high picks in the position anyways, and QB isn't worth this pick with Russell and Quinn gone. Lawrence Timmons and Paul Posluszny are a options here, as is Revis, but Moss gives them a nice pass rushing prospect and is a better option for them here. If Carriker or Nelson fell they would likely be the pick, but they are both gone so Moss is the man.
18. Cincinnati - Darrelle Revis (CB, Pittsburgh - 5'11.5", 204 lbs, 4.40 (at Pro Day))
Will also consider: Alan Branch, Lawrence Timmons, Paul Posluszny, Jon Beason, Darrelle Revis (if available). They took Johnathan Joseph in the 1st round last year, but they still have dire needs in the secondary. Reggie Nelson would be nice, but he's not available. Alan Branch is also a strong option to beef up their DLine and Jarvis Moss could be an option too if available, but I think Branch has more questions than Revis and with all the recent problems that the Bengals players have had they go with the more sure pick. Paul Posluszny and Lawrence Timmons are also both options, but I think CB is still a more pressing need.
19. Tennessee - Dwayne Jarrett (WR, USC - 6'4", 219 lbs, 4.64 (at Pro Day))
Will also consider: Robert Meachem, Ted Ginn, Alan Branch, Marshawn Lynch (if available), Jarvis Moss (if available). I think Meachem, Ginn, and even Bowe are better prospects and Meachem is a local college product which could be appealing. However Jarrett is the biggest target with the best set of hands among that group, and even with Vince's rapid development his ball placement still isn't his best attribute, and Jarrett can catch anything that comes anywhere near him. CB and RB are also big needs after the suspension of Pacman and the departure of Travis Henry, but neither position has as good of a prospect here as WR, and Jarrett will help in the continuing development of VY.
20. NY Giants - Lawrence Timmons (LB, Florida St. - 6'1", 234 lbs, 4.66, 25 bench reps)
Will also consider: Joe Staley, Paul Posluszny, Chris Houston. Joe Staley is a definite option and would fill a big need at LT, although I don't know that he's ready to start and be real effective yet. CB is also a need although outside of Hall and Revis I don't know that they like any of the remaining CBs enough, even though I think Houston is a good fit for their defensive scheme. LB has been a need of theirs for a couple years and most of their recent "solutions" at the position were released within the last couple months, and Timmons gives them a solid prospect at the position. Posluszny could also be an option but I like Timmons better.
21. Denver - Alan Branch (DT, Michigan - 6'5.5", 324 lbs, 5.07, 33 bench reps)
Will also consider: Joe Staley, Jon Beason, Paul Posluszny, Jarvis Moss (if available). Joe Staley would be a great fit for their OLine and they could use another OT, but they traditionally don't take linemen this high. Despite bringing in several DLinemen in free agency over the last couple years, they still haven't found many consistent performers. Alan Branch hasn't been the model of consistency or hard work, but it is a position of need for the Broncos and he's a very good player when he wants to be so the Broncos grab him here.
22. Dallas - Ted Ginn (WR, Ohio St. - 5'11", 178 lbs, 4.38 (at Pro Day))
Will also consider: Robert Meachem, Chris Houston, Aaron Ross, Paul Posluszny, Alan Branch (if available). I don't think WR is a huge immediate need at all for them and they would have really liked Alan Branch to make it one pick further, but with him out of the way they grab a speedy option at WR and a special teams phenom that is a home run threat every time he touches the ball.
23. Kansas City - Ben Grubbs (OG, Auburn - 6'2.5", 311 lbs, 5.18 (5.10 at Pro Day), 35 bench press reps)
Will also consider: Joe Staley, Robert Meachem, Dwayne Bowe, Chris Houston, Ryan Kalil, Alan Branch (if available). Until a week ago I had a WR penciled in here, but with an uncharacteristically shaky OLine last year and the sudden retirement of Will Shields I think this becomes a bigger need and Grubbs is a very good prospect at the position. In this draft, they can also find a WR in the next round or two to come in and push for a starting spot.
24. New England (from Seattle) - Brandon Meriweather (S/CB, Miami - 5'10.5", 195 lbs, 4.47)
Will also consider: Paul Posluszny, Michael Griffin, Chris Houston, Aaron Ross, Robert Meachem. The Patriots could use more talent in the secondary. Michael Griffin may be an attractive option as an eventual replacement for Lawyer Milloy, but the Patriots love versatility and Meriweather can fill in at FS or CB as needed.
25. NY Jets - Chris Houston (CB, Arkansas - 5'10", 185 lbs, 4.32)
Will also consider: Aaron Ross, Jarvis Moss (if available). The Jets have a major need at CB, so it comes down to Ross vs. Houston. Many people will have Ross rated higher, but I personally like Houston better and I think he's a great fit for the aggressive 3-4 defense that Mangini and all Belichick pupils run. Jarvis Moss could also be an option as an OLB if he falls, but CB is simply too big of a need, and there are other DE/LB tweeners they can likely find in the 2nd round (Quentin Moses, Lamarr Woodley to name a few).
26. Philadelphia - Michael Griffin (S, Texas - 5'11.5", 202 lbs, 4.45 (4.40 at Pro Day))
Will also consider: Aaron Ross, Paul Posluszny, Jon Beason, Robert Meachem, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Meriweather (if available). WR is a need but Andy Reid doesn't draft them overly high. The Eagles could also look elsewhere on defense, but Lewis lost his starting job last year and was let go this year and Brian Dawkins is getting older. Griffin should be able to come in and start at SS for them and play well for them.
27. New Orleans - Paul Posluszny (LB, Penn St. - 6'1.5", 238 lbs, 4.70 (4.60 at Pro Day), 22 bench press reps)
Will also consider: Job Beason, Justin Harrell, Aaron Ross, Robert Meachem. The Saints can use help on just about every level of their defense, and Posluszny is the best available defensive player so they grab him up.
28. New England - Jon Beason (LB, Miami - 6'0", 237 lbs, 4.72, 19 bench reps)
Will also consider: Robert Meachem, Ryan Kalil, Anthony Spencer. The Patriots defense is getting old so they continue to infuse young talent by bringing in a solid ILB prospect.
29. Baltimore - Joe Staley (OT, Central Michigan - 6'6", 306 lbs, 4.82 (at Pro Day), 27 bench press reps)
Will also consider: Anthony Spencer, Robert Meachem, Ryan Kalil, Chris Houston (if available), Ben Grubbs (if available). One of the Ravens few weaknesses is on the OLine, specifically at RT. Staley gives them a very athletic option that isn't a finished product yet but should be able to step in immediately and play pretty well at RT and develop into Ogden's eventual replacement at LT.
30. San Diego - Robert Meachem (WR, Tennessee - 6'2", 214 lbs, 4.39)
Will also consider: Dwayne Bowe, Ryan Kalil, Brandon Meriweather (if available). The Chargers don't really have a #1 WR and Meachem would be a very nice pick if he's available here.
31. Chicago - Dwayne Bowe (WR, LSU - 6'2", 221 lbs, 4.51 (4.44 at Pro Day))
Will also consider: Justin Harrell, Arron Sears. WR isn't necessarily their biggest need, although they don't have many needs at all anyways so they have the luxury of taking the best player available.
32. Indianapolis - Aaron Ross (CB, Texas - 6'0.5", 193 lbs, 4.44)
Will also consider: Justin Harrell, Jon Beason (if available). The Colts continue to let key defensive players walk in free agency and continue to win games despite their losses. They lost both starting CBs this offseason and Ross is a very nice fit in a cover 2 system. If Beason was available he'd also be a strong consideration to replace Cato June, but he's gone and Ross is a nice pick for them.

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